Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Progetto di reti Sensori Wireless e tecniche di Fusione Sensoriale

Ambient Intelligence (AmI) envisions a world where smart, electronic environments are aware and responsive to their context. People moving into these settings engage many computational devices and systems simultaneously even if they are not aware of their presence. AmI stems from the convergence of three key technologies: ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and natural interfaces. The dependence on a large amount of fixed and mobile sensors embedded into the environment makes of Wireless Sensor Networks one of the most relevant enabling technologies for AmI. WSN are complex systems made up of a number of sensor nodes, simple devices that typically embed a low power computational unit (microcontrollers, FPGAs etc.), a wireless communication unit, one or more sensors and a some form of energy supply (either batteries or energy scavenger modules). Low-cost, low-computational power, low energy consumption and small size are characteristics that must be taken into consideration when designing and dealing with WSNs. In order to handle the large amount of data generated by a WSN several multi sensor data fusion techniques have been developed. The aim of multisensor data fusion is to combine data to achieve better accuracy and inferences than could be achieved by the use of a single sensor alone. In this dissertation we present our results in building several AmI applications suitable for a WSN implementation. The work can be divided into two main areas: Multimodal Surveillance and Activity Recognition. Novel techniques to handle data from a network of low-cost, low-power Pyroelectric InfraRed (PIR) sensors are presented. Such techniques allow the detection of the number of people moving in the environment, their direction of movement and their position. We discuss how a mesh of PIR sensors can be integrated with a video surveillance system to increase its performance in people tracking. Furthermore we embed a PIR sensor within the design of a Wireless Video Sensor Node (WVSN) to extend its lifetime. Activity recognition is a fundamental block in natural interfaces. A challenging objective is to design an activity recognition system that is able to exploit a redundant but unreliable WSN. We present our activity in building a novel activity recognition architecture for such a dynamic system. The architecture has a hierarchical structure where simple nodes performs gesture classification and a high level meta classifiers fuses a changing number of classifier outputs. We demonstrate the benefit of such architecture in terms of increased recognition performance, and fault and noise robustness. Furthermore we show how we can extend network lifetime by performing a performance-power trade-off. Smart objects can enhance user experience within smart environments. We present our work in extending the capabilities of the Smart Micrel Cube (SMCube), a smart object used as tangible interface within a tangible computing framework, through the development of a gesture recognition algorithm suitable for this limited computational power device. Finally the development of activity recognition techniques can greatly benefit from the availability of shared dataset. We report our experience in building a dataset for activity recognition. Such dataset is freely available to the scientific community for research purposes and can be used as a testbench for developing, testing and comparing different activity recognition techniques.

Isospin dependence of the Ar+Ni fusion-evaporation cross section

The fundamental goal of this thesis is the determination of the isospin dependence of the Ar+Ni fusion-evaporation cross section. Three Ar isotope beams, with energies of about 13AMeV, have been accelerated and impinged onto isotopically enriched Ni targets, in order to produce Pd nuclei, with mass number varying from 92 to 104. The measurements have been performed by the high performance 4pi detector INDRA, coupled with the magnetic spectrometer VAMOS. Even if the results are very preliminary, the obtained fusion-evaporation cross sections behaviour gives a hint at the possible isospin dependence of the fusion-evaporation cross sections.

Stellar Relics of the hierarchical assembly of the Galaxy

This PhD Thesis is part of a long-term wide research project, carried out by the "Osservatorio Astronomico di Bologna (INAF-OABO)", that has as primary goal the comprehension and reconstruction of formation mechanism of galaxies and their evolution history. There is now substantial evidence, both from theoretical and observational point of view, in favor of the hypothesis that the halo of our Galaxy has been at least partially, built up by the progressive accretion of small fragments, similar in nature to the present day dwarf galaxies of the Local Group. In this context, the photometric and spectroscopic study of systems which populate the halo of our Galaxy (i.e. dwarf spheroidal galaxy, tidal streams, massive globular cluster, etc) permits to discover, not only the origin and behaviour of these systems, but also the structure of our Galactic halo, combined with its formation history. In fact, the study of the population of these objects and also of their chemical compositions, age, metallicities and velocity dispersion, permit us not only an improvement in the understanding of the mechanisms that govern the Galactic formation, but also a valid indirect test for cosmological model itself. Specifically, in this Thesis we provided a complete characterization of the tidal Stream of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy, that is the most striking example of the process of tidal disruption and accretion of a dwarf satellite in to our Galaxy. Using Red Clump stars, extracted from the catalogue of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) we obtained an estimate of the distance, the depth along the line of sight and of the number density for each detected portion of the Stream (and more in general for each detected structure along our line of sight). Moreover comparing the relative number (i.e. the ratio) of Blue Horizontal Branch stars and Red Clump stars (the two features are tracers of different age/different metallicity populations) in the main body of the galaxy and in the Stream, in order to verify the presence of an age-metallicity gradient along the Stream. We also report the detection of a population of Red Clump stars probably associated with the recently discovered Bootes III stellar system. Finally, we also present the results of a survey of radial velocities over a wide region, extending from r ~ 10' out to r ~ 80' within the massive star cluster Omega Centauri. The survey was performed with FLAMES@VLT, to study the velocity dispersion profile in the outer regions of this stellar system. All the results presented in this Thesis, have already been published in refeered journals.

Dynamic stabilization of Rayleigh-Taylor instability of ablation fronts in inertial confinement fusion

One of the most important problems in inertial confinement fusion is how to find a way to mitigate the onset of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability which arises in the ablation front during the compression. In this thesis it is studied in detail the possibility of using for such a purpose the well-known mechanism of dynamic stabilization, already applied to other dynamical systems such as the inverted pendulum. In this context, a periodic acceleration superposed to the background gravity generates a vertical vibration of the ablation front itself. The effects of different driving modulations (Dirac deltas and square waves) are analyzed from a theoretical point of view, with a focus on stabilization of ion beam driven ablation fronts, and a comparison is made, in order to look for optimization.

Towards a Reconstruction of Thermal Properties of Light Nuclei from Fusion - Evaporation reactions

This thesis work has been developed in the framework of a new experimental campaign, proposed by the NUCL-EX Collaboration (INFN III Group), in order to progress in the understanding of the statistical properties of light nuclei, at excitation energies above particle emission threshold, by measuring exclusive data from fusion-evaporation reactions. The determination of the nuclear level density in the A~20 region, the understanding of the statistical behavior of light nuclei with excitation energies ~3 A.MeV, and the measurement of observables linked to the presence of cluster structures of nuclear excited levels are the main physics goals of this work. On the theory side, the contribution to this project given by this work lies in the development of a dedicated Monte-Carlo Hauser-Feshbach code for the evaporation of the compound nucleus. The experimental part of this thesis has consisted in the participation to the measurement 12C+12C at 95 MeV beam energy, at Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro - INFN, using the GARFIELD+Ring Counter(RCo) set-up, from the beam-time request to the data taking, data reduction, detector calibrations and data analysis. Different results of the data analysis are presented in this thesis, together with a theoretical study of the system, performed with the new statistical decay code. As a result of this work, constraints on the nuclear level density at high excitation energy for light systems ranging from C up to Mg are given. Moreover, pre-equilibrium effects, tentatively interpreted as alpha-clustering effects, are put in evidence, both in the entrance channel of the reaction and in the dissipative dynamics on the path towards thermalisation.

A novel specific genetic translocation in epithelioid hemangioendotelioma, showing a fusion of the WWTR1 and CAMTA1 genes, supports the monoclonality of multifocal epithelioid hemangioendotelioma.

Like other vascular tumors, epithelioid hemangioendothelioma (EHE) is multifocal in approximately 50% of cases, and it is unclear whether the separate lesions represent multifocal disease or metastases. We hypothesized that the identification of an identical WWTR1-CAMTA1 rearrangement in different EHEs from the same patient supports the monoclonal origin of EHE. To test our hypothesis, we undertook a molecular analysis of two multicentric EHEs of the liver, including separate tumor samples from each patient. Matherial and Methods: We retrieved two cases of EHE with available tissue for molecular analysis. In both cases, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) was performed to identify the presence of the WWTR1-CAMTA1 rearrangement to confirm the histologic diagnosis of EHE, as previously described. The reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) products were analyzed by electrophoresis and the RT-PCR–amplified products were sequenced using the Sanger method. Results: FISH analysis revealed signal abnormalities in both WWTR1 and CAMTA1. Combined results confirmed the presence of the t(1;3)(1p36.23;3q25.1) translocation in both cases of EHE. Using RT-PCR analysis, we found that the size of the rearranged bands was identical in the different tumors from each patient. The sequence of the fusion gene confirmed a different WWTR1-CAMTA1 rearrangement in each patient, but an identical WWTR1-CAMTA1 rearrangement in the different lesions from each patient. Discussion: Because of its generally indolent clinical course, EHE is commonly classified as a multifocal, rather than metastatic, disease. In this study, we examined two cases of multifocal liver EHE and found an identical WWTR1-CAMTA1 rearrangement in each lesion from the same patient, but not between the two patients. These findings suggest that multifocal EHE arises from metastasis of the same neoplastic clone rather than from the simultaneous formation of multiple neoplastic clones, which supports the monoclonal origin of multifocal EHE.