SPHERA, a new Italian convection-permitting regional reanalysis: improving heavy-rainfall representation and describing hail-prone environments

Extreme weather events related to deep convection are high-impact critical phenomena whose reliable numerical simulation is still challenging. High-resolution (convection-permitting) modeling setups allow to switch off physical parameterizations accountable for substantial errors in convection representation. A new convection-permitting reanalysis over Italy (SPHERA) has been produced at ARPAE to enhance the representation and understanding of extreme weather situations. SPHERA is obtained through a dynamical downscaling of the global reanalysis ERA5 using the non-hydrostatic model COSMO at 2.2 km grid spacing over 1995-2020. This thesis aims to verify the expectations placed on SPHERA by analyzing two weather phenomena that are particularly challenging to simulate: heavy rainfall and hail. A quantitative statistical analysis over Italy during 2003-2017 for daily and hourly precipitation is presented to compare the performance of SPHERA with its driver ERA5 considering the national network of rain gauges as reference. Furthermore, two extreme precipitation events are deeply investigated. SPHERA shows a quantitative added skill over ERA5 for moderate to severe and rapid accumulations in terms of adherence to the observations, higher detailing of the spatial fields, and more precise temporal matching. These results prompted the use of SPHERA for the investigation of hailstorms, for which the combination of multiple information is crucial to reduce the substantial uncertainties permeating their understanding. A proxy for hail is developed by combining hail-favoring environmental numerical predictors with observations of ESWD hail reports and satellite overshooting top detections. The procedure is applied to the extended summer season (April-October) of 2016-2018 over the whole SPHERA spatial domain. The results indicate maximum hail likelihood over pre-Alpine regions and the northern Adriatic sea around 15 UTC in June-July, in agreement with recent European hail climatologies. The method demonstrates enhanced performance in case of severe hail occurrences and the ability to separate between ambient signatures depending on hail severity.

Experimental and numerical analyses about the efficiency of flow through devices for the sediment controll in urban runoff

As land is developed, the impervious surfaces that are created increase the amount of runoff during rainfall events, disrupting the natural hydrologic cycle, with an increment in volume of runoff and in pollutant loadings. Pollutants deposited or derived from an activity on the land surface will likely end up in stormwater runoff in some concentration, such as nutrients, sediment, heavy metals, hydrocarbons, gasoline additives, pathogens, deicers, herbicides and pesticides. Several of these pollutants are particulate-bound, so it appears clear that sediment removal can provide significant water-quality improvements and it appears to be important the knowledge of the ability of stromwater treatment devices to retain particulate matter. For this reason three different units which remove sediments have been tested through laboratory. In particular a roadside gully pot has been tested under steady hydraulic conditions, varying the characteristics of the influent solids (diameter, particle size distribution and specific gravity). The efficiency in terms of particles retained has been evaluated as a function of influent flow rate and particles characteristics; results have been compared to efficiency evaluated applying an overflow rate model. Furthermore the role of particles settling velocity in efficiency determination has been investigated. After the experimental runs on the gully pot, a standard full-scale model of an hydrodynamic separator (HS) has been tested under unsteady influent flow rate condition, and constant solid concentration at the input. The results presented in this study illustrate that particle separation efficiency of the unit is predominately influenced by operating flow rate, which strongly affects the particles and hydraulic residence time of the system. The efficiency data have been compared to results obtained from a modified overflow rate model; moreover the residence time distribution has been experimentally determined through tracer analyses for several steady flow rates. Finally three testing experiments have been performed for two different configurations of a full-scale model of a clarifier (linear and crenulated) under unsteady influent flow rate condition, and constant solid concentration at the input. The results illustrate that particle separation efficiency of the unit is predominately influenced by the configuration of the unit itself. Turbidity measures have been used to compare turbidity with the suspended sediments concentration, in order to find a correlation between these two values, which can allow to have a measure of the sediments concentration simply installing a turbidity probe.

Dimensionamento di invasi per il controllo dei deflussi nei bacini urbanizzati

Urbanization is a continuing phenomenon in all the world. Grasslands, forests, etc. are being continually changed to residential, commercial and industrial complexes, roads and streets, and so on. One of the side effects of urbanization with which engineers and planners must deal with, is the increase of peak flows and volumes of runoff from rainfall events. As a result, the urban drainage and flood control systems must be designed to accommodate the peak flows from a variety of storms that may occur. Usually the peak flow, after development, is required not to exceed what would have occurred from the same storm under conditions existing prior to development. In order to do this it is necessary to design detention storage to hold back runoff and to release it downstream at controlled rates. In the first part of the work have been developed various simplified formulations that can be adopted for the design of stormwater detention facilities. In order to obtain a simplified hydrograph were adopted two approaches: the kinematic routing technique and the linear reservoir schematization. For the two approaches have been also obtained other two formulations depending if the IDF (intensity-duration-frequency) curve is described with two or three parameters. Other formulations have been developed taking into account if the outlet have a constant discharge or it depends on the water level in the pond. All these formulations can be easily applied when are known the characteristics of the drainage system and maximum discharge that these is in the outlet and has been defined a Return Period which characterize the IDF curve. In this way the volume of the detention pond can be calculated. In the second part of the work have been analyzed the design of detention ponds adopting continuous simulation models. The drainage systems adopted for the simulations, performed with SWMM5, are fictitious systems characterized by different sizes, and different shapes of the catchments and with a rainfall historical time series of 16 years recorded in Bologna. This approach suffers from the fact that continuous record of rainfall is often not available and when it is, the cost of such modelling can be very expensive, and that the majority of design practitioners are not prepared to use continuous long term modelling in the design of stormwater detention facilities. In the third part of the work have been analyzed statistical and stochastic methodologies in order to define the volume of the detention pond. In particular have been adopted the results of the long term simulation, performed with SWMM, to obtain the data to apply statistic and stochastic formulation. All these methodologies have been compared and correction coefficient have been proposed on the basis of the statistic and stochastic form. In this way engineers which have to design a detention pond can apply a simplified procedure appropriately corrected with the proposed coefficient.

Multi-scale analysis of active landslides using two-pass differential interferometry

Landslides are common features of the landscape of the north-central Apennine mountain range and cause frequent damage to human facilities and infrastructure. Most of these landslides move periodically with moderate velocities and, only after particular rainfall events, some accelerate abruptly. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) provides a particularly convenient method for studying deforming slopes. We use standard two-pass interferometry, taking advantage of the short revisit time of the Sentinel-1 satellites. In this paper we present the results of the InSAR analysis developed on several study areas in central and Northern Italian Apennines. The aims of the work described within the articles contained in this paper, concern: i) the potential of the standard two-pass interferometric technique for the recognition of active landslides; ii) the exploration of the potential related to the displacement time series resulting from a two-pass multiple time-scale InSAR analysis; iii) the evaluation of the possibility of making comparisons with climate forcing for cognitive and risk assessment purposes. Our analysis successfully identified more than 400 InSAR deformation signals (IDS) in the different study areas corresponding to active slope movements. The comparison between IDSs and thematic maps allowed us to identify the main characteristics of the slopes most prone to landslides. The analysis of displacement time series derived from monthly interferometric stacks or single 6-day interferograms allowed the establishment of landslide activity thresholds. This information, combined with the displacement time series, allowed the relationship between ground deformation and climate forcing to be successfully investigated. The InSAR data also gave access to the possibility of validating geographical warning systems and comparing the activity state of landslides with triggering probability thresholds.

Pattern recognition analysis on heavy ion reaction data

One of the problems in the analysis of nucleus-nucleus collisions is to get information on the value of the impact parameter b. This work consists in the application of pattern recognition techniques aimed at associating values of b to groups of events. To this end, a support vec- tor machine (SVM) classifier is adopted to analyze multifragmentation reactions. This method allows to backtracing the values of b through a particular multidimensional analysis. The SVM classification con- sists of two main phase. In the first one, known as training phase, the classifier learns to discriminate the events that are generated by two different model:Classical Molecular Dynamics (CMD) and Heavy- Ion Phase-Space Exploration (HIPSE) for the reaction: 58Ni +48 Ca at 25 AMeV. To check the classification of events in the second one, known as test phase, what has been learned is tested on new events generated by the same models. These new results have been com- pared to the ones obtained through others techniques of backtracing the impact parameter. Our tests show that, following this approach, the central collisions and peripheral collisions, for the CMD events, are always better classified with respect to the classification by the others techniques of backtracing. We have finally performed the SVM classification on the experimental data measured by NUCL-EX col- laboration with CHIMERA apparatus for the previous reaction.