Bio-physical interactions and feedbacks in a global climate model

This PhD thesis addresses the topic of large-scale interactions between climate and marine biogeochemistry. To this end, centennial simulations are performed under present and projected future climate conditions with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model containing a complex marine biogeochemistry model. The role of marine biogeochemistry in the climate system is first investigated. Phytoplankton solar radiation absorption in the upper ocean enhances sea surface temperatures and upper ocean stratification. The associated increase in ocean latent heat losses raises atmospheric temperatures and water vapor. Atmospheric circulation is modified at tropical and extratropical latitudes with impacts on precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and ocean circulation which cause upper-ocean heat content to decrease at tropical latitudes and to increase at middle latitudes. Marine biogeochemistry is tightly related to physical climate variability, which may vary in response to internal natural dynamics or to external forcing such as anthropogenic carbon emissions. Wind changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of climate variability in the North Atlantic, affect ocean properties by means of momentum, heat, and freshwater fluxes. Changes in upper ocean temperature and mixing impact the spatial structure and seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton through light and nutrient limitations. These changes affect the capability of the North Atlantic Ocean of absorbing atmospheric CO2 and of fixing it inside sinking particulate organic matter. Low-frequency NAO phases determine a delayed response of ocean circulation, temperature and salinity, which in turn affects stratification and marine biogeochemistry. In 20th and 21st century simulations natural wind fluctuations in the North Pacific, related to the two dominant modes of atmospheric variability, affect the spatial structure and the magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom through changes in upper-ocean temperature and mixing. The impacts of human-induced emissions in the 21st century are generally larger than natural climate fluctuations, with the phytoplankton spring bloom starting one month earlier than in the 20th century and with ~50% lower magnitude. This PhD thesis advances the knowledge of bio-physical interactions within the global climate, highlighting the intrinsic coupling between physical climate and biosphere, and providing a framework on which future studies of Earth System change can be built on.

Towards a broader understanding of the effects of tidal forcing on the global ocean circulation

The study of tides and their interactions with the complex dynamics of the global ocean represents a crucial challenge in ocean modelling. This thesis aims to deepen this study from a dynamical point of view, analysing what are the tidal effects on the general circulation of the ocean. We perform different experiments of a mesoscale-permitting global ocean model forced by both atmospheric fields and astronomical tidal potential, and we implement two parametrizations to include in the model tidal phenomena that are currently unresolved, with particular emphasis to the topographic wave drag for locally dissipating internal waves. An additional experiment using a mesoscale-resolving configuration is used to compare the simulated tides at different resolutions with observed data. We find that the accuracy of modelled tides strongly depends on the region and harmonic component of interest, even though the increased resolution allows to improve the modelled topography and resolve more intense internal waves. We then focus on the impact of tides in the Atlantic Ocean and find that tides weaken the overturning circulation during the analysed period from 1981 to 2007, even though the interannual differences strongly change in both amplitude and phase. The zonally integrated momentum balance shows that tide changes the water stratification at the zonal boundaries, modifying the pressure and therefore the geostrophic balance over the entire basin. Finally, we describe the overturning circulation in the Mediterranean Sea computing the meridional and zonal streamfunctions both in the Eulerian and residual frameworks. The circulation is characterised by different cells, and their forcing processes are described with particular emphasis to the role of mesoscale and a transient climatic event. We complete the description of the overturning circulation giving evidence for the first time to the connection between meridional and zonal cells.

Multiresolution spherical wavelet analysis in global seismic tomography

Every seismic event produces seismic waves which travel throughout the Earth. Seismology is the science of interpreting measurements to derive information about the structure of the Earth. Seismic tomography is the most powerful tool for determination of 3D structure of deep Earth's interiors. Tomographic models obtained at the global and regional scales are an underlying tool for determination of geodynamical state of the Earth, showing evident correlation with other geophysical and geological characteristics. The global tomographic images of the Earth can be written as a linear combinations of basis functions from a specifically chosen set, defining the model parameterization. A number of different parameterizations are commonly seen in literature: seismic velocities in the Earth have been expressed, for example, as combinations of spherical harmonics or by means of the simpler characteristic functions of discrete cells. With this work we are interested to focus our attention on this aspect, evaluating a new type of parameterization, performed by means of wavelet functions. It is known from the classical Fourier theory that a signal can be expressed as the sum of a, possibly infinite, series of sines and cosines. This sum is often referred as a Fourier expansion. The big disadvantage of a Fourier expansion is that it has only frequency resolution and no time resolution. The Wavelet Analysis (or Wavelet Transform) is probably the most recent solution to overcome the shortcomings of Fourier analysis. The fundamental idea behind this innovative analysis is to study signal according to scale. Wavelets, in fact, are mathematical functions that cut up data into different frequency components, and then study each component with resolution matched to its scale, so they are especially useful in the analysis of non stationary process that contains multi-scale features, discontinuities and sharp strike. Wavelets are essentially used in two ways when they are applied in geophysical process or signals studies: 1) as a basis for representation or characterization of process; 2) as an integration kernel for analysis to extract information about the process. These two types of applications of wavelets in geophysical field, are object of study of this work. At the beginning we use the wavelets as basis to represent and resolve the Tomographic Inverse Problem. After a briefly introduction to seismic tomography theory, we assess the power of wavelet analysis in the representation of two different type of synthetic models; then we apply it to real data, obtaining surface wave phase velocity maps and evaluating its abilities by means of comparison with an other type of parametrization (i.e., block parametrization). For the second type of wavelet application we analyze the ability of Continuous Wavelet Transform in the spectral analysis, starting again with some synthetic tests to evaluate its sensibility and capability and then apply the same analysis to real data to obtain Local Correlation Maps between different model at same depth or between different profiles of the same model.

Knowledge Flows and Networks: the Interplay between Local and Global Linkages within Bangalore IT Cluster

This doctoral work gains deeper insight into the dynamics of knowledge flows within and across clusters, unfolding their features, directions and strategic implications. Alliances, networks and personnel mobility are acknowledged as the three main channels of inter-firm knowledge flows, thus offering three heterogeneous measures to analyze the phenomenon. The interplay between the three channels and the richness of available research methods, has allowed for the elaboration of three different papers and perspectives. The common empirical setting is the IT cluster in Bangalore, for its distinguished features as a high-tech cluster and for its steady yearly two-digit growth around the service-based business model. The first paper deploys both a firm-level and a tie-level analysis, exploring the cases of 4 domestic companies and of 2 MNCs active the cluster, according to a cluster-based perspective. The distinction between business-domain knowledge and technical knowledge emerges from the qualitative evidence, further confirmed by quantitative analyses at tie-level. At firm-level, the specialization degree seems to be influencing the kind of knowledge shared, while at tie-level both the frequency of interaction and the governance mode prove to determine differences in the distribution of knowledge flows. The second paper zooms out and considers the inter-firm networks; particularly focusing on the role of cluster boundary, internal and external networks are analyzed, in their size, long-term orientation and exploration degree. The research method is purely qualitative and allows for the observation of the evolving strategic role of internal network: from exploitation-based to exploration-based. Moreover, a causal pattern is emphasized, linking the evolution and features of the external network to the evolution and features of internal network. The final paper addresses the softer and more micro-level side of knowledge flows: personnel mobility. A social capital perspective is here developed, which considers both employees’ acquisition and employees’ loss as building inter-firm ties, thus enhancing company’s overall social capital. Negative binomial regression analyses at dyad-level test the significant impact of cluster affiliation (cluster firms vs non-cluster firms), industry affiliation (IT firms vs non-IT fims) and foreign affiliation (MNCs vs domestic firms) in shaping the uneven distribution of personnel mobility, and thus of knowledge flows, among companies.

Measure of Global Specialization and Spatial Clustering for the Identification of "Specialized" Agglomeration

The intensity of regional specialization in specific activities, and conversely, the level of industrial concentration in specific locations, has been used as a complementary evidence for the existence and significance of externalities. Additionally, economists have mainly focused the debate on disentangling the sources of specialization and concentration processes according to three vectors: natural advantages, internal, and external scale economies. The arbitrariness of partitions plays a key role in capturing these effects, while the selection of the partition would have to reflect the actual characteristics of the economy. Thus, the identification of spatial boundaries to measure specialization becomes critical, since most likely the model will be adapted to different scales of distance, and be influenced by different types of externalities or economies of agglomeration, which are based on the mechanisms of interaction with particular requirements of spatial proximity. This work is based on the analysis of the spatial aspect of economic specialization supported by the manufacturing industry case. The main objective is to propose, for discrete and continuous space: i) a measure of global specialization; ii) a local disaggregation of the global measure; and iii) a spatial clustering method for the identification of specialized agglomerations.

Model predictive control in thermal management of multiprocessor systems-on-chip

MultiProcessor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoC) are the core of nowadays and next generation computing platforms. Their relevance in the global market continuously increase, occupying an important role both in everydaylife products (e.g. smartphones, tablets, laptops, cars) and in strategical market sectors as aviation, defense, robotics, medicine. Despite of the incredible performance improvements in the recent years processors manufacturers have had to deal with issues, commonly called “Walls”, that have hindered the processors development. After the famous “Power Wall”, that limited the maximum frequency of a single core and marked the birth of the modern multiprocessors system-on-chip, the “Thermal Wall” and the “Utilization Wall” are the actual key limiter for performance improvements. The former concerns the damaging effects of the high temperature on the chip caused by the large power densities dissipation, whereas the second refers to the impossibility of fully exploiting the computing power of the processor due to the limitations on power and temperature budgets. In this thesis we faced these challenges by developing efficient and reliable solutions able to maximize performance while limiting the maximum temperature below a fixed critical threshold and saving energy. This has been possible by exploiting the Model Predictive Controller (MPC) paradigm that solves an optimization problem subject to constraints in order to find the optimal control decisions for the future interval. A fully-distributedMPC-based thermal controller with a far lower complexity respect to a centralized one has been developed. The control feasibility and interesting properties for the simplification of the control design has been proved by studying a partial differential equation thermal model. Finally, the controller has been efficiently included in more complex control schemes able to minimize energy consumption and deal with mixed-criticalities tasks

Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

A new global wheat marketmodel (GLOWMM) for the analysis of wheat export prices

Food commodity prices fluctuations have important impacts on poverty and food insecurity across the world. Conventional models have not provided a complete picture of recent price spikes in agricultural commodity markets, while there is an urgent need for appropriate policy responses. Perhaps new approaches are needed in order to better understand international spill-overs, the feedback between the real and the financial sectors and also the link between food and energy prices. In this paper, we present results from a new worldwide dynamic model that provides short and long-run impulse responses of wheat international prices to various real shocks.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.