Natural patterns and anthropogenic disturbance in north Adriatic marine benthic assemblages: descriptive and methodological studies

Marine soft bottom systems show a high variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Both natural and anthropogenic sources of disturbance act together in affecting benthic sedimentary characteristics and species distribution. The description of such spatial variability is required to understand the ecological processes behind them. However, in order to have a better estimate of spatial patterns, methods that take into account the complexity of the sedimentary system are required. This PhD thesis aims to give a significant contribution both in improving the methodological approaches to the study of biological variability in soft bottom habitats and in increasing the knowledge of the effect that different process (both natural and anthropogenic) could have on the benthic communities of a large area in the North Adriatic Sea. Beta diversity is a measure of the variability in species composition, and Whittaker’s index has become the most widely used measure of beta-diversity. However, application of the Whittaker index to soft bottom assemblages of the Adriatic Sea highlighted its sensitivity to rare species (species recorded in a single sample). This over-weighting of rare species induces biased estimates of the heterogeneity, thus it becomes difficult to compare assemblages containing a high proportion of rare species. In benthic communities, the unusual large number of rare species is frequently attributed to a combination of sampling errors and insufficient sampling effort. In order to reduce the influence of rare species on the measure of beta diversity, I have developed an alternative index based on simple probabilistic considerations. It turns out that this probability index is an ordinary Michaelis-Menten transformation of Whittaker's index but behaves more favourably when species heterogeneity increases. The suggested index therefore seems appropriate when comparing patterns of complexity in marine benthic assemblages. Although the new index makes an important contribution to the study of biodiversity in sedimentary environment, it remains to be seen which processes, and at what scales, influence benthic patterns. The ability to predict the effects of ecological phenomena on benthic fauna highly depends on both spatial and temporal scales of variation. Once defined, implicitly or explicitly, these scales influence the questions asked, the methodological approaches and the interpretation of results. Problem often arise when representative samples are not taken and results are over-generalized, as can happen when results from small-scale experiments are used for resource planning and management. Such issues, although globally recognized, are far from been resolved in the North Adriatic Sea. This area is potentially affected by both natural (e.g. river inflow, eutrophication) and anthropogenic (e.g. gas extraction, fish-trawling) sources of disturbance. Although few studies in this area aimed at understanding which of these processes mainly affect macrobenthos, these have been conducted at a small spatial scale, as they were designated to examine local changes in benthic communities or particular species. However, in order to better describe all the putative processes occurring in the entire area, a high sampling effort performed at a large spatial scale is required. The sedimentary environment of the western part of the Adriatic Sea was extensively studied in this thesis. I have described, in detail, spatial patterns both in terms of sedimentary characteristics and macrobenthic organisms and have suggested putative processes (natural or of human origin) that might affect the benthic environment of the entire area. In particular I have examined the effect of off shore gas platforms on benthic diversity and tested their effect over a background of natural spatial variability. The results obtained suggest that natural processes in the North Adriatic such as river outflow and euthrophication show an inter-annual variability that might have important consequences on benthic assemblages, affecting for example their spatial pattern moving away from the coast and along a North to South gradient. Depth-related factors, such as food supply, light, temperature and salinity play an important role in explaining large scale benthic spatial variability (i.e., affecting both the abundance patterns and beta diversity). Nonetheless, more locally, effects probably related to an organic enrichment or pollution from Po river input has been observed. All these processes, together with few human-induced sources of variability (e.g. fishing disturbance), have a higher effect on macrofauna distribution than any effect related to the presence of gas platforms. The main effect of gas platforms is restricted mainly to small spatial scales and related to a change in habitat complexity due to a natural dislodgement or structure cleaning of mussels that colonize their legs. The accumulation of mussels on the sediment reasonably affects benthic infauna composition. All the components of the study presented in this thesis highlight the need to carefully consider methodological aspects related to the study of sedimentary habitats. With particular regards to the North Adriatic Sea, a multi-scale analysis along natural and anthopogenic gradients was useful for detecting the influence of all the processes affecting the sedimentary environment. In the future, applying a similar approach may lead to an unambiguous assessment of the state of the benthic community in the North Adriatic Sea. Such assessment may be useful in understanding if any anthropogenic source of disturbance has a negative effect on the marine environment, and if so, planning sustainable strategies for a proper management of the affected area.

Erosione e sollevamento nell'arco calabro-peloritano

The Calabrian-Peloritani arc represents key site to unravel evolution of surface processes on top of subducting lithosphere. During the Pleistocene, in fact the arc uplifted at rate of the order of about 1mm/yr, forming high-standing low-relief upland (figure 2). Our study is focused on the relationship between tectonic and land evolution in the Sila Massif, Messina strait and Peloritani Mts. Landforms reflect a competition between tectonic, climatic, and surficial processes. Many landscape evolution models that explore feedbacks between these competing processes, given steady forcing, predict a state of erosional equilibrium, where the rates of river incision and hillslope erosion balance rock uplift. It has been suggested that this may be the final constructive stage of orogenic systems. Assumptions of steady erosion and incision are used in the interpretation of exhumation and uplift rates from different geologic data, and in the formulation of fluvial incision and hillslope evolution models. In the Sila massif we carried out cosmogenic isotopes analysis on 24 samples of modern fluvial sediments to constrain long-term (~103 yr) erosion rate averaged on the catchment area. 35 longitudinal rivers profiles have been analyzed to study the tectonic signal on the landscape evolution. The rivers analyzed exhibit a wide variety of profile forms, diverging from equilibrium state form. Generally the river profiles show at least 2 and often 3 distinct concave-up knickpoint-bounded segments, characterized by different value of concavity and steepness indices. River profiles suggest three main stages of incision. The values of ks and θ in the lower segments evidence a decrease in river incision, due probably to increasing uplift rate. The cosmogenic erosion rates pointed out that old landscape upland is eroding slowly at ~0.1 mm/yr. In the contrary, the flanks of the massif is eroding faster with value from 0.4 to 0.5 mm/yr due to river incision and hillslope processes. Cosmogenic erosion rates mach linearly with steepness indices and with average hillslope gradient. In the Messina area the long term erosion rate from low-T thermochronometry are of the same order than millennium scale cosmogenic erosion rate (1-2 mm/yr). In this part of the chain the fast erosion is active since several million years, probably controlled by extensional tectonic regime. In the Peloritani Mts apatite fission-track and (U-Th)/He thermochronometry are applied to constraint the thermal history of the basement rock. Apatite fission-track ages range between 29.0±5.5 and 5.5±0.9 Ma while apatite (U-Th)/He ages vary from 19.4 to 1.0 Ma. Most of the AFT ages are younger than the overlying terrigenous sequence that in turn postdates the main orogenic phase. Through the coupling of the thermal modelling with the stratigraphic record, a Middle Miocene thermal event due to tectonic burial is unravel. This event affected a inner-intermediate portion of the Peloritani belt confined by young AFT data (<15 Ma) distribution. We interpret this thermal event as due to an out-of–sequence thrusting occurring in the inner portion of the belt. Young (U-Th)/He ages (c. 5 Ma) record a final exhumation stage with increasing rates of denudation since the Pliocene times due to postorogenic extensional tectonics and regional uplift. In the final chapter we change the spatial scale to insert digital topography analysis and field data within a geodynamic model that can explain surface evidence produced by subduction process.

Statistical Physics and Modeling of Human Mobility

In this thesis, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. By using a database containing GPS measures of individual paths (position, velocity and covered space at a spatial scale of 2 Km or a time scale of 30 sec), which includes the 2% of the private vehicles in Italy, we succeed in determining some statistical empirical laws pointing out "universal" characteristics of human mobility. Developing simple stochastic models suggesting possible explanations of the empirical observations, we are able to indicate what are the key quantities and cognitive features that are ruling individuals' mobility. To understand the features of individual dynamics, we have studied different aspects of urban mobility from a physical point of view. We discuss the implications of the Benford's law emerging from the distribution of times elapsed between successive trips. We observe how the daily travel-time budget is related with many aspects of the urban environment, and describe how the daily mobility budget is then spent. We link the scaling properties of individual mobility networks to the inhomogeneous average durations of the activities that are performed, and those of the networks describing people's common use of space with the fractional dimension of the urban territory. We study entropy measures of individual mobility patterns, showing that they carry almost the same information of the related mobility networks, but are also influenced by a hierarchy among the activities performed. We discover that Wardrop's principles are violated as drivers have only incomplete information on traffic state and therefore rely on knowledge on the average travel-times. We propose an assimilation model to solve the intrinsic scattering of GPS data on the street network, permitting the real-time reconstruction of traffic state at a urban scale.

A clustering method for robust and reliable large scale functional and structural protein sequence annotation

Bioinformatics, in the last few decades, has played a fundamental role to give sense to the huge amount of data produced. Obtained the complete sequence of a genome, the major problem of knowing as much as possible of its coding regions, is crucial. Protein sequence annotation is challenging and, due to the size of the problem, only computational approaches can provide a feasible solution. As it has been recently pointed out by the Critical Assessment of Function Annotations (CAFA), most accurate methods are those based on the transfer-by-homology approach and the most incisive contribution is given by cross-genome comparisons. In the present thesis it is described a non-hierarchical sequence clustering method for protein automatic large-scale annotation, called “The Bologna Annotation Resource Plus” (BAR+). The method is based on an all-against-all alignment of more than 13 millions protein sequences characterized by a very stringent metric. BAR+ can safely transfer functional features (Gene Ontology and Pfam terms) inside clusters by means of a statistical validation, even in the case of multi-domain proteins. Within BAR+ clusters it is also possible to transfer the three dimensional structure (when a template is available). This is possible by the way of cluster-specific HMM profiles that can be used to calculate reliable template-to-target alignments even in the case of distantly related proteins (sequence identity < 30%). Other BAR+ based applications have been developed during my doctorate including the prediction of Magnesium binding sites in human proteins, the ABC transporters superfamily classification and the functional prediction (GO terms) of the CAFA targets. Remarkably, in the CAFA assessment, BAR+ placed among the ten most accurate methods. At present, as a web server for the functional and structural protein sequence annotation, BAR+ is freely available at http://bar.biocomp.unibo.it/bar2.0.

A tuple space implementation for large-scale infrastructures

Coordinating activities in a distributed system is an open research topic. Several models have been proposed to achieve this purpose such as message passing, publish/subscribe, workflows or tuple spaces. We have focused on the latter model, trying to overcome some of its disadvantages. In particular we have applied spatial database techniques to tuple spaces in order to increase their performance when handling a large number of tuples. Moreover, we have studied how structured peer to peer approaches can be applied to better distribute tuples on large networks. Using some of these result, we have developed a tuple space implementation for the Globus Toolkit that can be used by Grid applications as a coordination service. The development of such a service has been quite challenging due to the limitations imposed by XML serialization that have heavily influenced its design. Nevertheless, we were able to complete its implementation and use it to implement two different types of test applications: a completely parallelizable one and a plasma simulation that is not completely parallelizable. Using this last application we have compared the performance of our service against MPI. Finally, we have developed and tested a simple workflow in order to show the versatility of our service.

Measure of Global Specialization and Spatial Clustering for the Identification of "Specialized" Agglomeration

The intensity of regional specialization in specific activities, and conversely, the level of industrial concentration in specific locations, has been used as a complementary evidence for the existence and significance of externalities. Additionally, economists have mainly focused the debate on disentangling the sources of specialization and concentration processes according to three vectors: natural advantages, internal, and external scale economies. The arbitrariness of partitions plays a key role in capturing these effects, while the selection of the partition would have to reflect the actual characteristics of the economy. Thus, the identification of spatial boundaries to measure specialization becomes critical, since most likely the model will be adapted to different scales of distance, and be influenced by different types of externalities or economies of agglomeration, which are based on the mechanisms of interaction with particular requirements of spatial proximity. This work is based on the analysis of the spatial aspect of economic specialization supported by the manufacturing industry case. The main objective is to propose, for discrete and continuous space: i) a measure of global specialization; ii) a local disaggregation of the global measure; and iii) a spatial clustering method for the identification of specialized agglomerations.

Architectures and design patterns for functional design of logic control and diagnostics in industrial automation

Recently in most of the industrial automation process an ever increasing degree of automation has been observed. This increasing is motivated by the higher requirement of systems with great performance in terms of quality of products/services generated, productivity, efficiency and low costs in the design, realization and maintenance. This trend in the growth of complex automation systems is rapidly spreading over automated manufacturing systems (AMS), where the integration of the mechanical and electronic technology, typical of the Mechatronics, is merging with other technologies such as Informatics and the communication networks. An AMS is a very complex system that can be thought constituted by a set of flexible working stations, one or more transportation systems. To understand how this machine are important in our society let considerate that every day most of us use bottles of water or soda, buy product in box like food or cigarets and so on. Another important consideration from its complexity derive from the fact that the the consortium of machine producers has estimated around 350 types of manufacturing machine. A large number of manufacturing machine industry are presented in Italy and notably packaging machine industry,in particular a great concentration of this kind of industry is located in Bologna area; for this reason the Bologna area is called “packaging valley”. Usually, the various parts of the AMS interact among them in a concurrent and asynchronous way, and coordinate the parts of the machine to obtain a desiderated overall behaviour is an hard task. Often, this is the case in large scale systems, organized in a modular and distributed manner. Even if the success of a modern AMS from a functional and behavioural point of view is still to attribute to the design choices operated in the definition of the mechanical structure and electrical electronic architecture, the system that governs the control of the plant is becoming crucial, because of the large number of duties associated to it. Apart from the activity inherent to the automation of themachine cycles, the supervisory system is called to perform other main functions such as: emulating the behaviour of traditional mechanical members thus allowing a drastic constructive simplification of the machine and a crucial functional flexibility; dynamically adapting the control strategies according to the different productive needs and to the different operational scenarios; obtaining a high quality of the final product through the verification of the correctness of the processing; addressing the operator devoted to themachine to promptly and carefully take the actions devoted to establish or restore the optimal operating conditions; managing in real time information on diagnostics, as a support of the maintenance operations of the machine. The kind of facilities that designers can directly find on themarket, in terms of software component libraries provides in fact an adequate support as regard the implementation of either top-level or bottom-level functionalities, typically pertaining to the domains of user-friendly HMIs, closed-loop regulation and motion control, fieldbus-based interconnection of remote smart devices. What is still lacking is a reference framework comprising a comprehensive set of highly reusable logic control components that, focussing on the cross-cutting functionalities characterizing the automation domain, may help the designers in the process of modelling and structuring their applications according to the specific needs. Historically, the design and verification process for complex automated industrial systems is performed in empirical way, without a clear distinction between functional and technological-implementation concepts and without a systematic method to organically deal with the complete system. Traditionally, in the field of analog and digital control design and verification through formal and simulation tools have been adopted since a long time ago, at least for multivariable and/or nonlinear controllers for complex time-driven dynamics as in the fields of vehicles, aircrafts, robots, electric drives and complex power electronics equipments. Moving to the field of logic control, typical for industrial manufacturing automation, the design and verification process is approached in a completely different way, usually very “unstructured”. No clear distinction between functions and implementations, between functional architectures and technological architectures and platforms is considered. Probably this difference is due to the different “dynamical framework”of logic control with respect to analog/digital control. As a matter of facts, in logic control discrete-events dynamics replace time-driven dynamics; hence most of the formal and mathematical tools of analog/digital control cannot be directly migrated to logic control to enlighten the distinction between functions and implementations. In addition, in the common view of application technicians, logic control design is strictly connected to the adopted implementation technology (relays in the past, software nowadays), leading again to a deep confusion among functional view and technological view. In Industrial automation software engineering, concepts as modularity, encapsulation, composability and reusability are strongly emphasized and profitably realized in the so-calledobject-oriented methodologies. Industrial automation is receiving lately this approach, as testified by some IEC standards IEC 611313, IEC 61499 which have been considered in commercial products only recently. On the other hand, in the scientific and technical literature many contributions have been already proposed to establish a suitable modelling framework for industrial automation. During last years it was possible to note a considerable growth in the exploitation of innovative concepts and technologies from ICT world in industrial automation systems. For what concerns the logic control design, Model Based Design (MBD) is being imported in industrial automation from software engineering field. Another key-point in industrial automated systems is the growth of requirements in terms of availability, reliability and safety for technological systems. In other words, the control system should not only deal with the nominal behaviour, but should also deal with other important duties, such as diagnosis and faults isolations, recovery and safety management. Indeed, together with high performance, in complex systems fault occurrences increase. This is a consequence of the fact that, as it typically occurs in reliable mechatronic systems, in complex systems such as AMS, together with reliable mechanical elements, an increasing number of electronic devices are also present, that are more vulnerable by their own nature. The diagnosis problem and the faults isolation in a generic dynamical system consists in the design of an elaboration unit that, appropriately processing the inputs and outputs of the dynamical system, is also capable of detecting incipient faults on the plant devices, reconfiguring the control system so as to guarantee satisfactory performance. The designer should be able to formally verify the product, certifying that, in its final implementation, it will perform itsrequired function guarantying the desired level of reliability and safety; the next step is that of preventing faults and eventually reconfiguring the control system so that faults are tolerated. On this topic an important improvement to formal verification of logic control, fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control results derive from Discrete Event Systems theory. The aimof this work is to define a design pattern and a control architecture to help the designer of control logic in industrial automated systems. The work starts with a brief discussion on main characteristics and description of industrial automated systems on Chapter 1. In Chapter 2 a survey on the state of the software engineering paradigm applied to industrial automation is discussed. Chapter 3 presentes a architecture for industrial automated systems based on the new concept of Generalized Actuator showing its benefits, while in Chapter 4 this architecture is refined using a novel entity, the Generalized Device in order to have a better reusability and modularity of the control logic. In Chapter 5 a new approach will be present based on Discrete Event Systems for the problemof software formal verification and an active fault tolerant control architecture using online diagnostic. Finally conclusive remarks and some ideas on new directions to explore are given. In Appendix A are briefly reported some concepts and results about Discrete Event Systems which should help the reader in understanding some crucial points in chapter 5; while in Appendix B an overview on the experimental testbed of the Laboratory of Automation of University of Bologna, is reported to validated the approach presented in chapter 3, chapter 4 and chapter 5. In Appendix C some components model used in chapter 5 for formal verification are reported.

Multiscale fabrication of functional materials for life sciences

Regenerative medicine claims for a better understanding of the cause-effect relation between cell behaviour and environment signals. The latter encompasses topographical, chemical and mechanical stimuli, electromagnetic fields, gradients of chemo-attractants and haptotaxis. In this perspective, a spatial control of the structures composing the environment is required. In this thesis I describe a novel approach for the multiscale patterning of biocompatible functional materials in order to provide systems able to accurately control cell adhesion and proliferation. The behaviour of different neural cell lines in response to several stimuli, specifically chemical, topographical and electrical gradients is presented. For each of the three kind of signals, I chose properly tailored materials and fabrication and characterization techniques. After a brief introduction on the state of art of nanotechnology, nanofabrication techniques and regenerative medicine in Chapter 1 and a detailed description of the main fabrication and characterization techniques employed in this work in Chapter 2, in Chapter 3 an easy route to obtain accurate control over cell proliferation close to 100% is described (chemical control). In Chapter 4 (topographical control) it is shown how the multiscale patterning of a well-established biocompatible material as titanium dioxide provides a versatile and robust method to study the effect of local topography on cell adhesion and growth. The third signal, viz. electric field, is investigated in Chapter 5 (electrical control), where the very early stages of neural cell adhesion are studied in the presence of modest steady electric fields. In Chapter 6 (appendix) a new patterning technique, called Lithographically Controlled Etching (LCE), is proposed. It is shown how LCE can provide at the same time the micro/nanostructuring and functionalization of a surface with nanosized objects, thus being suitable for applications both in regenerative medicine in biosensing.

Structural and functional analysis of centromeric chromatin

Animal neocentromeres are defined as ectopic centromeres that have formed in non-centromeric locations and avoid some of the features, like the DNA satellite sequence, that normally characterize canonical centromeres. Despite this, they are stable functional centromeres inherited through generations. The only existence of neocentromeres provide convincing evidence that centromere specification is determined by epigenetic rather than sequence-specific mechanisms. For all this reasons, we used them as simplified models to investigate the molecular mechanisms that underlay the formation and the maintenance of functional centromeres. We collected human cell lines carrying neocentromeres in different positions. To investigate the region involved in the process at the DNA sequence level we applied a recent technology that integrates Chromatin Immuno-Precipitation and DNA microarrays (ChIP-on-chip) using rabbit polyclonal antibodies directed against CENP-A or CENP-C human centromeric proteins. These DNA binding-proteins are required for kinetochore function and are exclusively targeted to functional centromeres. Thus, the immunoprecipitation of DNA bound by these proteins allows the isolation of centromeric sequences, including those of the neocentromeres. Neocentromeres arise even in protein-coding genes region. We further analyzed if the increased scaffold attachment sites and the corresponding tighter chromatin of the region involved in the neocentromerization process still were permissive or not to transcription of within encoded genes. Centromere repositioning is a phenomenon in which a neocentromere arisen without altering the gene order, followed by the inactivation of the canonical centromere, becomes fixed in population. It is a process of chromosome rearrangement fundamental in evolution, at the bases of speciation. The repeat-free region where the neocentromere initially forms, progressively acquires extended arrays of satellite tandem repeats that may contribute to its functional stability. In this view our attention focalized to the repositioned horse ECA11 centromere. ChIP-on-chip analysis was used to define the region involved and SNPs studies, mapping within the region involved into neocentromerization, were carried on. We have been able to describe the structural polymorphism of the chromosome 11 centromeric domain of Caballus population. That polymorphism was seen even between homologues chromosome of the same cells. That discovery was the first described ever. Genomic plasticity had a fundamental role in evolution. Centromeres are not static packaged region of genomes. The key question that fascinates biologists is to understand how that centromere plasticity could be combined to the stability and maintenance of centromeric function. Starting from the epigenetic point of view that underlies centromere formation, we decided to analyze the RNA content of centromeric chromatin. RNA, as well as secondary chemically modifications that involve both histones and DNA, represents a good candidate to guide somehow the centromere formation and maintenance. Many observations suggest that transcription of centromeric DNA or of other non-coding RNAs could affect centromere formation. To date has been no thorough investigation addressing the identity of the chromatin-associated RNAs (CARs) on a global scale. This prompted us to develop techniques to identify CARs in a genome-wide approach using high-throughput genomic platforms. The future goal of this study will be to focalize the attention on what strictly happens specifically inside centromere chromatin.

Three Essays in Spatial Economics

This work contributes to the field of spatial economics by embracing three distinct modelling approaches, belonging to different strands of the theoretical literature. In the first chapter I present a theoretical model in which the changes in urban system’s degree of functional specialisation are linked to (i) firms’ organisational choices and firms’ location decisions. The interplay between firms’ internal communication/managing costs (between headquarters and production plants) and the cost of communicating with distant business services providers leads the transition process from an “integrated” urban system where each city hosts every different functions to a “functionally specialised” urban system where each city is either a primary business center (hosting advanced business services providers, a secondary business center or a pure manufacturing city and all this city-types coexist in equilibrium.The second chapter investigates the impact of free trade on welfare in a two-country world modelled as an international Hotelling duopoly with quadratic transport costs and asymmetric countries, where a negative environmental externality is associated with the consumption of the good produced in the smaller country. Countries’ relative sizes as well as the intensity of negative environmental externality affect potential welfare gains of trade liberalisation. The third chapter focuses on the paradox, by which, contrary to theoretical predictions, empirical evidence shows that a decrease in international transport costs causes an increase in foreign direct investments (FDIs). Here we propose an explanation to this apparent puzzle by exploiting an approach which delivers a continuum of Bertrand- Nash equilibria ranging above marginal cost pricing. In our setting, two Bertrand firms, supplying a homogeneous good with a convex cost function, enter the market of a foreign country. We show that allowing for a softer price competition may indeed more than offset the standard effect generated by a decrease in trade costs, thereby restoring FDI incentives.

Functional and neural mechanisms of intertemporal choice

People are daily faced with intertemporal choice, i.e., choices differing in the timing of their consequences, frequently preferring smaller-sooner rewards over larger-delayed ones, reflecting temporal discounting of the value of future outcomes. This dissertation addresses two main goals. New evidence about the neural bases of intertemporal choice is provided. Following the disruption of either the medial orbitofrontal cortex or the insula, the willingness to wait for larger-delayed outcomes is affected in odd directions, suggesting the causal involvement of these areas in regulating the value computation of rewards available with different timings. These findings were also supported by a reported imaging study. Moreover, this dissertation provides new evidence about how temporal discounting can be modulated at a behavioral level through different manipulations, e.g., allowing individuals to think about the distant time, pairing rewards with aversive events, or changing their perceived spatial position. A relationship between intertemporal choice, moral judgements and aging is also discussed. All these findings link together to support a unitary neural model of temporal discounting according to which signals coming from several cortical (i.e., medial orbitofrontal cortex, insula) and subcortical regions (i.e., amygdala, ventral striatum) are integrated to represent the subjective value of both earlier and later rewards, under the top-down regulation of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The present findings also support the idea that the process of outcome evaluation is strictly related to the ability to pre-experience and envision future events through self-projection, the anticipation of visceral feelings associated with receiving rewards, and the psychological distance from rewards. Furthermore, taking into account the emotions and the state of arousal at the time of decision seems necessary to understand impulsivity associated with preferring smaller-sooner goods in place of larger-later goods.

Marine biodiversity survey in the Northern Red Sea: a large-scale monitoring carried out in collaboration with volunteer divers

Concerns over global change and its effect on coral reef survivorship have highlighted the need for long-term datasets and proxy records, to interpret environmental trends and inform policymakers. Citizen science programs have showed to be a valid method for collecting data, reducing financial and time costs for institutions. This study is based on the elaboration of data collected by recreational divers and its main purpose is to evaluate changes in the state of coral reef biodiversity in the Red Sea over a long term period and validate the volunteer-based monitoring method. Volunteers recreational divers completed a questionnaire after each dive, recording the presence of 72 animal taxa and negative reef conditions. Comparisons were made between records from volunteers and independent records from a marine biologist who performed the same dive at the same time. A total of 500 volunteers were tested in 78 validation trials. Relative values of accuracy, reliability and similarity seem to be comparable to those performed by volunteer divers on precise transects in other projects, or in community-based terrestrial monitoring. 9301 recreational divers participated in the monitoring program, completing 23,059 survey questionnaires in a 5-year period. The volunteer-sightings-based index showed significant differences between the geographical areas. The area of Hurghada is distinguished by a medium-low biodiversity index, heavily damaged by a not controlled anthropic exploitation. Coral reefs along the Ras Mohammed National Park at Sharm el Sheikh, conversely showed high biodiversity index. The detected pattern seems to be correlated with the conservation measures adopted. In our experience and that of other research institutes, citizen science can integrate conventional methods and significantly reduce costs and time. Involving recreational divers we were able to build a large data set, covering a wide geographic area. The main limitation remains the difficulty of obtaining an homogeneous spatial sampling distribution.

Aspetti di sostenibilità in agricoltura a diverse scale spaziali e temporali. Valutazioni ambientali, economiche ed energetiche.

La Tesi analizza le relazioni tra i processi di sviluppo agricolo e l’uso delle risorse naturali, in particolare di quelle energetiche, a livello internazionale (paesi in via di sviluppo e sviluppati), nazionale (Italia), regionale (Emilia Romagna) e aziendale, con lo scopo di valutare l’eco-efficienza dei processi di sviluppo agricolo, la sua evoluzione nel tempo e le principali dinamiche in relazione anche ai problemi di dipendenza dalle risorse fossili, della sicurezza alimentare, della sostituzione tra superfici agricole dedicate all’alimentazione umana ed animale. Per i due casi studio a livello macroeconomico è stata adottata la metodologia denominata “SUMMA” SUstainability Multi-method, multi-scale Assessment (Ulgiati et al., 2006), che integra una serie di categorie d’impatto dell’analisi del ciclo di vita, LCA, valutazioni costi-benefici e la prospettiva di analisi globale della contabilità emergetica. L’analisi su larga scala è stata ulteriormente arricchita da un caso studio sulla scala locale, di una fattoria produttrice di latte e di energia elettrica rinnovabile (fotovoltaico e biogas). Lo studio condotto mediante LCA e valutazione contingente ha valutato gli effetti ambientali, economici e sociali di scenari di riduzione della dipendenza dalle fonti fossili. I casi studio a livello macroeconomico dimostrano che, nonostante le politiche di supporto all’aumento di efficienza e a forme di produzione “verdi”, l’agricoltura a livello globale continua ad evolvere con un aumento della sua dipendenza dalle fonti energetiche fossili. I primi effetti delle politiche agricole comunitarie verso una maggiore sostenibilità sembrano tuttavia intravedersi per i Paesi Europei. Nel complesso la energy footprint si mantiene alta poiché la meccanizzazione continua dei processi agricoli deve necessariamente attingere da fonti energetiche sostitutive al lavoro umano. Le terre agricole diminuiscono nei paesi europei analizzati e in Italia aumentando i rischi d’insicurezza alimentare giacché la popolazione nazionale sta invece aumentando.

Spatio-temporal models of the functional architecture of the visual cortex

In this work I tried to explore many aspects of cognitive visual science, each one based on different academic fields, proposing mathematical models capable to reproduce both neuro-physiological and phenomenological results that were described in the recent literature. The structure of my thesis is mainly composed of three chapters, corresponding to the three main areas of research on which I focused my work. The results of each work put the basis for the following, and their ensemble form an homogeneous and large-scale survey on the spatio-temporal properties of the architecture of the visual cortex of mammals.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.