9 resultados para full Bayes (FB) hierarchical

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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The need for a convergence between semi-structured data management and Information Retrieval techniques is manifest to the scientific community. In order to fulfil this growing request, W3C has recently proposed XQuery Full Text, an IR-oriented extension of XQuery. However, the issue of query optimization requires the study of important properties like query equivalence and containment; to this aim, a formal representation of document and queries is needed. The goal of this thesis is to establish such formal background. We define a data model for XML documents and propose an algebra able to represent most of XQuery Full-Text expressions. We show how an XQuery Full-Text expression can be translated into an algebraic expression and how an algebraic expression can be optimized.

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In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

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This PhD Thesis is part of a long-term wide research project, carried out by the "Osservatorio Astronomico di Bologna (INAF-OABO)", that has as primary goal the comprehension and reconstruction of formation mechanism of galaxies and their evolution history. There is now substantial evidence, both from theoretical and observational point of view, in favor of the hypothesis that the halo of our Galaxy has been at least partially, built up by the progressive accretion of small fragments, similar in nature to the present day dwarf galaxies of the Local Group. In this context, the photometric and spectroscopic study of systems which populate the halo of our Galaxy (i.e. dwarf spheroidal galaxy, tidal streams, massive globular cluster, etc) permits to discover, not only the origin and behaviour of these systems, but also the structure of our Galactic halo, combined with its formation history. In fact, the study of the population of these objects and also of their chemical compositions, age, metallicities and velocity dispersion, permit us not only an improvement in the understanding of the mechanisms that govern the Galactic formation, but also a valid indirect test for cosmological model itself. Specifically, in this Thesis we provided a complete characterization of the tidal Stream of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy, that is the most striking example of the process of tidal disruption and accretion of a dwarf satellite in to our Galaxy. Using Red Clump stars, extracted from the catalogue of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) we obtained an estimate of the distance, the depth along the line of sight and of the number density for each detected portion of the Stream (and more in general for each detected structure along our line of sight). Moreover comparing the relative number (i.e. the ratio) of Blue Horizontal Branch stars and Red Clump stars (the two features are tracers of different age/different metallicity populations) in the main body of the galaxy and in the Stream, in order to verify the presence of an age-metallicity gradient along the Stream. We also report the detection of a population of Red Clump stars probably associated with the recently discovered Bootes III stellar system. Finally, we also present the results of a survey of radial velocities over a wide region, extending from r ~ 10' out to r ~ 80' within the massive star cluster Omega Centauri. The survey was performed with FLAMES@VLT, to study the velocity dispersion profile in the outer regions of this stellar system. All the results presented in this Thesis, have already been published in refeered journals.

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The primary objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the 3D velocity structure of the lithosphere in central Italy. To this end, I adopted the Spectral-Element Method to perform accurate numerical simulations of the complex wavefields generated by the 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila event and by its foreshocks and aftershocks together with some additional events within our target region. For the mainshock, the source was represented by a finite fault and different models for central Italy, both 1D and 3D, were tested. Surface topography, attenuation and Moho discontinuity were also accounted for. Three-component synthetic waveforms were compared to the corresponding recorded data. The results of these analyses show that 3D models, including all the known structural heterogeneities in the region, are essential to accurately reproduce waveform propagation. They allow to capture features of the seismograms, mainly related to topography or to low wavespeed areas, and, combined with a finite fault model, result into a favorable match between data and synthetics for frequencies up to ~0.5 Hz. We also obtained peak ground velocity maps, that provide valuable information for seismic hazard assessment. The remaining differences between data and synthetics led us to take advantage of SEM combined with an adjoint method to iteratively improve the available 3D structure model for central Italy. A total of 63 events and 52 stations in the region were considered. We performed five iterations of the tomographic inversion, by calculating the misfit function gradient - necessary for the model update - from adjoint sensitivity kernels, constructed using only two simulations for each event. Our last updated model features a reduced traveltime misfit function and improved agreement between data and synthetics, although further iterations, as well as refined source solutions, are necessary to obtain a new reference 3D model for central Italy tomography.

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In the present work, a multi physics simulation of an innovative safety system for light water nuclear reactor is performed, with the aim to increase the reliability of its main decay heat removal system. The system studied, denoted by the acronym PERSEO (in Pool Energy Removal System for Emergency Operation) is able to remove the decay power from the primary side of the light water nuclear reactor through a heat suppression pool. The experimental facility, located at SIET laboratories (PIACENZA), is an evolution of the Thermal Valve concept where the triggering valve is installed liquid side, on a line connecting two pools at the bottom. During the normal operation, the valve is closed, while in emergency conditions it opens, the heat exchanger is flooded with consequent heat transfer from the primary side to the pool side. In order to verify the correct system behavior during long term accidental transient, two main experimental PERSEO tests are analyzed. For this purpose, a coupling between the mono dimensional system code CATHARE, which reproduces the system scale behavior, with a three-dimensional CFD code NEPTUNE CFD, allowing a full investigation of the pools and the injector, is implemented. The coupling between the two codes is realized through the boundary conditions. In a first analysis, the facility is simulated by the system code CATHARE V2.5 to validate the results with the experimental data. The comparison of the numerical results obtained shows a different void distribution during the boiling conditions inside the heat suppression pool for the two cases of single nodalization and three volume nodalization scheme of the pool. Finaly, to improve the investigation capability of the void distribution inside the pool and the temperature stratification phenomena below the injector, a two and three dimensional CFD models with a simplified geometry of the system are adopted.

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This PhD thesis presents two measurements of differential production cross section of top and anti-top pairs tt ̅ decaying in a lepton+jets final state. The normalize cross section is measured as a function of the top transverse momentum and the tt ̅ mass, transverse momentum and rapidity using the full 2011 proton-proton (pp) ATLAS data taking at a center of mass energy of √s=7 TeV and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of L=4.6 〖fb〗^(-1). The cross section is also measured at the particle level as a function of the hadronic top transverse momentum for highly energetic events using the full 2012 data taking at √s=8 TeV and with L=20 〖fb〗^(-1). The measured spectra are fully corrected for detector efficiency and resolution effects and are compared to several theoretical predictions showing a quite good agreement, depending on different spectra.

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The Vrancea region, at the south-eastern bend of the Carpathian Mountains in Romania, represents one of the most puzzling seismically active zones of Europe. Beside some shallow seismicity spread across the whole Romanian territory, Vrancea is the place of an intense seismicity with the presence of a cluster of intermediate-depth foci placed in a narrow nearly vertical volume. Although large-scale mantle seismic tomographic studies have revealed the presence of a narrow, almost vertical, high-velocity body in the upper mantle, the nature and the geodynamic of this deep intra-continental seismicity is still questioned. High-resolution seismic tomography could help to reveal more details in the subcrustal structure of Vrancea. Recent developments in computational seismology as well as the availability of parallel computing now allow to potentially retrieve more information out of seismic waveforms and to reach such high-resolution models. This study was aimed to evaluate the application of a full waveform inversion tomography at regional scale for the Vrancea lithosphere using data from the 1999 six months temporary local network CALIXTO. Starting from a detailed 3D Vp, Vs and density model, built on classical travel-time tomography together with gravity data, I evaluated the improvements obtained with the full waveform inversion approach. The latter proved to be highly problem dependent and highly computational expensive. The model retrieved after the first two iterations does not show large variations with respect to the initial model but remains in agreement with previous tomographic models. It presents a well-defined downgoing slab shape high velocity anomaly, composed of a N-S horizontal anomaly in the depths between 40 and 70km linked to a nearly vertical NE-SW anomaly from 70 to 180km.

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Questo lavoro, tramite un'analisi attenta ed accurata dello sviluppo delle pronunce della Corte di Giustizia in materia tributaria, ha lo scopo di mettere in evidenza i canoni interpretativi utilizzati dalla Corte, tenendo presente gli effetti che tali pronunce hanno prodotto nei singoli stati ed in particolare sul ruolo del giudice tributario come giudice europeo. Assistiamo infatti oggi ad una vera e propria europeizzazione della produzione giuridica in grado di aprire nuovi spiragli alla tutela del cittadino anche nei confronti dell'amministrazione finanziaria. L'interazione, per molti aspetti problematica, tra gli organi di giustizia tributaria dei singoli ordinamenti ed il giudice comunitario sono diventate vera e propria fucina di un diritto tributario europeo, nell'ambito del quale a svolgere un ruolo di estrema rilevanza è il giudice interno. Le sentenze del giudice tributario nazionale infatti rappresentano lo strumento più efficace di chiarificazione del diritto comunitario. Il presente lavoro si propone quindi di esaminare nel dettaglio il rapporto complementare e funzionalista che si estrinseca nella peculiare funzione attribuita al giudice tributario nazionale che gli fa assumere le vesti di "giudice europeo" nonché la funzione attribuita alla Corte di Giustizia che assume i caratteri sempre più marcati di "giudice tributario sovranazionale". Partendo dalla disamina delle figure dei giudici tributari di Germania, Francia ed Italia, si passerà poi ad evidenziare i ruoli che hanno avuto le Corti nazionali nell'applicazione del diritto comunitario, evidenziando come nei vari casi le sentenze si sono affiancate alla preminenza gerarchica della norma europea.

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The production rate of $b$ and $\bar{b}$ hadrons in $pp$ collisions are not expected to be strictly identical, due to imbalance between quarks and anti-quarks in the initial state. This phenomenon can be naively related to the fact that the $\bar{b}$ quark produced in the hard scattering might combine with a $u$ or $d$ valence quark from the colliding protons, whereas the same cannot happen for a $b$ quark. This thesis presents the analysis performed to determine the production asymmetries of $B^0$ and $B^0_s$. The analysis relies on data samples collected by the LHCb detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) during the 2011 and 2012 data takings at two different values of the centre of mass energy $\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV and at $\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV, corresponding respectively to an integrated luminosity of 1 fb$^{-1}$ and of 2 fb$^{-1}$. The production asymmetry is one of the key ingredients to perform measurements of $CP$ violation in b-hadron decays at the LHC, since $CP$ asymmetries must be disentangled from other sources. The measurements of the production asymmetries are performed in bins of $p_\mathrm{T}$ and $\eta$ of the $B$-meson. The values of the production asymmetries, integrated in the ranges $4 < p_\mathrm{T} < 30$ GeV/c and $2.5<\eta<4.5$, are determined to be: \begin{equation} A_\mathrm{P}(\B^0)= (-1.00\pm0.48\pm0.29)\%,\nonumber \end{equation} \begin{equation} A_\mathrm{P}(\B^0_s)= (\phantom{-}1.09\pm2.61\pm0.61)\%,\nonumber \end{equation} where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The measurement of $A_\mathrm{P}(B^0)$ is performed using the full statistics collected by LHCb so far, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$, while the measurement of $A_\mathrm{P}(B^0_s)$ is realized with the first 1 fb$^{-1}$, leaving room for improvement. No clear evidence of dependences on the values of $p_\mathrm{T}$ and $\eta$ is observed. The results presented in this thesis are the most precise measurements available up to date.