Evaluation of seismic losses of RC buildings: the case of the industrial areas after the 2012 Emilia Earthquake

The topic of seismic loss assessment not only incorporates many aspects of the earthquake engineering, but also entails social factors, public policies and business interests. Because of its multidisciplinary character, this process may be complex to challenge, and sound discouraging to neophytes. In this context, there is an increasing need of deriving simplified methodologies to streamline the process and provide tools for decision-makers and practitioners. This dissertation investigates different possible applications both in the area of modelling of seismic losses, both in the analysis of observational seismic data. Regarding the first topic, the PRESSAFE-disp method is proposed for the fast evaluation of the fragility curves of precast reinforced-concrete (RC) structures. Hence, a direct application of the method to the productive area of San Felice is studied to assess the number of collapses under a specific seismic scenario. In particular, with reference to the 2012 events, two large-scale stochastic models are outlined. The outcomes of the framework are promising, in good agreement with the observed damage scenario. Furthermore, a simplified displacement-based methodology is outlined to estimate different loss performance metrics for the decision-making phase of the seismic retrofit of a single RC building. The aim is to evaluate the seismic performance of different retrofit options, for a comparative analysis of their effectiveness and the convenience. Finally, a contribution to the analysis of the observational data is presented in the last part of the dissertation. A specific database of losses of precast RC buildings damaged by the 2012 Earthquake is created. A statistical analysis is performed, allowing deriving several consequence functions. The outcomes presented may be implemented in probabilistic seismic risk assessments to forecast the losses at the large scale. Furthermore, these may be adopted to establish retrofit policies to prevent and reduce the consequences of future earthquakes in industrial areas.

Evaluation and management of demersal stocks in the Adriatic: the case of common sole (Solea solea, L.) in the northern and central Adriatic Sea

This PhD thesis aimed to assess the status of common sole, one of the main commercial stocks in the Adriatic Sea, using a mix of conventional and innovative techniques to provide more reliable estimates of stock status compared to past advice. First, a meta-analysis was carried out using data-poor assessment model to analyze the whole catch assemblage of rapido fishery. The outcomes were used to estimate rebuilding time and forecast catches under different harvest control rule scenarios, with a reduction of 20% of fishing effort being suggested as a way to allow most of the species to recover to sustainable levels. Secondly, an ensemble of data-rich assessment models was developed to better incorporate uncertainty by using alternative hypotheses of main parameters. This was the first time an ensemble of models has been used in the Mediterranean to provide management advice. Consistent with data-poor analysis results, the ensemble outcomes indicated that the common sole stock was showing a recovering trend probably due to the effective management actions underway in the area rather than the moderate effort reduction according to the actual management plan. Moreover, back-calculation measurements were used to fit and compare monophasic and biphasic growth curves through the use of non-linear mixed effects models. The analyses revealed that the fitting of the biphasic curve was superior, confirming the theory that growth in size would decrease as a consequence of reproductive effort. A stock assessment simulation showed how the use of the monophasic pattern would result in a critical overestimation of biomass that could lead to a greater risk of overfishing. As a final step, a simulation-testing procedure was applied to determine the best performing reference points using stock-specific characteristic. The procedure could be routinely adopted to increase transparency in reference points calculation enhancing the credibility of scientific advice.