A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

Procedura di progettazione di protesi a basso costo per l'arto inferiore

L'attività di ricerca descritta in questa tesi fornisce linee guida per la progettazione di arti protesici inferiori, con particolare riferimento alla progettazione di protesi a basso costo. La necessità di efficienti protesi a basso costo risulta infatti sentita nei Paesi in via di sviluppo ma anche dalle fasce meno abbienti dei paesi occidentali. Al fine di comprendere le strategie adottate dall'apparato locomotorio per muoversi con le protesi sono analizzati il cammino fisiologico, le protesi presenti sul mercato ed infine le modalità con cui le loro prestazioni sono valutate. Con il presente lavoro, dopo aver osservato la presenza di una scarsa strutturazione della metodologia di progettazione che riguarda specialmente il settore del basso costo, si propone una metodologia il più possibile oggettiva e ripetibile tesa ad individuare quali sono gli aspetti essenziali di una protesi per garantire al paziente una buona qualità di vita. Solo questi aspetti dovranno essere selezionati al fine di ottenere la massima semplificazione della protesi e ridurre il più possibile i costi. Per la simulazione delle attività di locomozione, in particolare del cammino, è stato elaborato un apposito modello spaziale del cammino. Il modello proposto ha 7 membri rigidi (corrispondenti a piedi, tibie, femori e bacino) e 24 gradi di libertà. Le articolazioni e l'appoggio dei piedi al suolo sono modellati con giunti sferici. La pianta del piede consente tre possibili punti di appoggio. I criteri di realizzazione delle simulazioni possono comprendere aspetti energetici, cinematici e dinamici considerati come obiettivo dall'apparato locomotorio. In questa tesi vengono trattati in particolare gli aspetti cinematici ed è mostrata un'applicazione della procedura nella quale vengono dapprima identificati i riferimenti fisiologici del cammino e quindi simulato il cammino in presenza di una menomazione al ginocchio (eliminazione della flessione in fase di appoggio). Viene quindi lasciato a sviluppi futuri il completamento della procedura e la sua implementazione in un codice di calcolo.

Durability of monumental stones treated with siloxane-based water repellents

The thesis investigates the effect of siloxane-based water repellents on the durability of monumental stones. Laspra, a micritic limestone typical for the Spanish region of Asturias, and Repedea, an oolitic limestone from Moldavia, Romania were selected for the present study, due to their regional / national significance and level of usage. As for the siloxane-based water repellents, three worldwide used products, namely Lotexan-N, Silres® BS 290 and Tegosivin HL 100 and a newly synthesized nanocomposite material, TMSPMA, obtained starting from the 3(trimethoxysilyl)propyl methacrylate as a precursor were investigated. The limestones and the water repellents were thoroughly characterized using specific techniques. The coating of the two monumental stones with the mentioned products and the investigation of coating efficiency yielded to the conclusion that all treatments induce good water repellent properties. The treated limestones were afterwards submitted to different artificially accelerated ageing tests – resistance against UV irradiation, resistance to salt mist action and resistance to SO2 action in the presence of humidity –, the results being analyzed according to standardized evaluation methods. The durability of the treated stones was proved to depend on both stone characteristics and water repellent chemical structure. All four water repellents induced a good protection against UV irradiation, no significant differences among them being noticed. As far as the resistance to salt mist action is concerned, the product that afforded the best results when applied on Laspra was TMSPMA, and on Repedea, Silres® BS 290 or / and TMSPMA showed the highest efficiency. The best resistance to SO2 action in the presence of humidity was conferred by Tegosivin HL 100 and TMSPMA when applied on Laspra, while Silres® BS 290 and TMSPMA afforded better results in the case of Repedea.

Aspetti di sostenibilità in agricoltura a diverse scale spaziali e temporali. Valutazioni ambientali, economiche ed energetiche.

La Tesi analizza le relazioni tra i processi di sviluppo agricolo e l’uso delle risorse naturali, in particolare di quelle energetiche, a livello internazionale (paesi in via di sviluppo e sviluppati), nazionale (Italia), regionale (Emilia Romagna) e aziendale, con lo scopo di valutare l’eco-efficienza dei processi di sviluppo agricolo, la sua evoluzione nel tempo e le principali dinamiche in relazione anche ai problemi di dipendenza dalle risorse fossili, della sicurezza alimentare, della sostituzione tra superfici agricole dedicate all’alimentazione umana ed animale. Per i due casi studio a livello macroeconomico è stata adottata la metodologia denominata “SUMMA” SUstainability Multi-method, multi-scale Assessment (Ulgiati et al., 2006), che integra una serie di categorie d’impatto dell’analisi del ciclo di vita, LCA, valutazioni costi-benefici e la prospettiva di analisi globale della contabilità emergetica. L’analisi su larga scala è stata ulteriormente arricchita da un caso studio sulla scala locale, di una fattoria produttrice di latte e di energia elettrica rinnovabile (fotovoltaico e biogas). Lo studio condotto mediante LCA e valutazione contingente ha valutato gli effetti ambientali, economici e sociali di scenari di riduzione della dipendenza dalle fonti fossili. I casi studio a livello macroeconomico dimostrano che, nonostante le politiche di supporto all’aumento di efficienza e a forme di produzione “verdi”, l’agricoltura a livello globale continua ad evolvere con un aumento della sua dipendenza dalle fonti energetiche fossili. I primi effetti delle politiche agricole comunitarie verso una maggiore sostenibilità sembrano tuttavia intravedersi per i Paesi Europei. Nel complesso la energy footprint si mantiene alta poiché la meccanizzazione continua dei processi agricoli deve necessariamente attingere da fonti energetiche sostitutive al lavoro umano. Le terre agricole diminuiscono nei paesi europei analizzati e in Italia aumentando i rischi d’insicurezza alimentare giacché la popolazione nazionale sta invece aumentando.

Evaluation of fluid transport processes in dental enamel. Methods to assess the relevance of enamel permeability in caries prevention and etching treatments.

This thesis evaluated in vivo and in vitro enamel permeability in different physiological and clinical conditions by means of SEM inspection of replicas of enamel surface obtained from polyvinyl siloxane impressions subsequently later cast in polyether impression ma-terial. This technique, not invasive and risk-free, allows the evaluation of fluid outflow from enamel surface and is able to detect the presence of small quantities of fluid, visu-alized as droplets. Fluid outflow on enamel surface represents enamel permeability. This property has a paramount importance in enamel physiolgy and pathology although its ef-fective role in adhesion, caries pathogenesis and prevention today is still not fully under-stood. The aim of the studies proposed was to evaluate enamel permeability changes in differ-ent conditions and to correlate the findings with the actual knowledge about enamel physiology, caries pathogenesis, fluoride and etchinhg treatments. To obtain confirmed data the replica technique has been supported by others specific techniques such as Ra-man and IR spectroscopy and EDX analysis. The first study carried out visualized fluid movement through dental enamel in vivo con-firmed that enamel is a permeable substrate and demonstrated that age and enamel per-meability are closely related. Examined samples from subjects of different ages showed a decreasing number and size of droplets with increasing age: freshly erupted permanent teeth showed many droplets covering the entire enamel surface. Droplets in permanent teeth were prominent along enamel perikymata. These results obtained through SEM inspection of replicas allowed innovative remarks in enamel physiology. An analogous testing has been developed for evaluation of enamel permeability in primary enamel. The results of this second study showed that primary enamel revealed a substantive permeability with droplets covering the entire enamel sur-face without any specific localization accordingly with histological features, without changes during aging signs of post-eruptive maturation. These results confirmed clinical data that showed a higher caries susceptibility for primary enamel and suggested a strong relationship between this one and enamel permeability. Topical fluoride application represents the gold standard for caries prevention although the mechanism of cariostatic effect of fluoride still needs to be clarified. The effects of topical fluoride application on enamel permeability were evaluated. Particularly two dif-ferent treatments (NaF and APF), with different pH, were examined. The major product of topical fluoride application was the deposition of CaF2-like globules. Replicas inspec-tion before and after both treatments at different times intervals and after specific addi-tional clinical interventions showed that such globule formed in vivo could be removed by professional toothbrushing, sonically and chemically by KOH. The results obtained in relation to enamel permeability showed that fluoride treatments temporarily reduced enamel water permeability when CaF2-like globules were removed. The in vivo perma-nence of decreased enamel permeability after CaF2 globules removal has been demon-strated for 1 h for NaF treated teeth and for at least 7 days for APF treated teeth. Important clinical consideration moved from these results. In fact the caries-preventing action of fluoride application may be due, in part, to its ability to decrease enamel water permeability and CaF2 like-globules seem to be indirectly involved in enamel protection over time maintaining low permeability. Others results obtained by metallographic microscope and SEM/EDX analyses of or-thodontic resins fluoride releasing and not demonstrated the relevance of topical fluo-ride application in decreasing the demineralization marks and modifying the chemical composition of the enamel in the treated area. These data obtained in both the experiments confirmed the efficacy of fluoride in caries prevention and contribute to clarify its mechanism of action. Adhesive dentistry is the gold standard for caries treatment and tooth rehabilitation and is founded on important chemical and physical principles involving both enamel and dentine substrates. Particularly acid etching of dental enamel enamel has usually employed in bonding pro-cedures increasing microscopic roughness. Different acids have been tested in the litera-ture suggesting several etching procedures. The acid-induced structural transformations in enamel after different etching treatments by means of Raman and IR spectroscopy analysis were evaluated and these findings were correlated with enamel permeability. Conventional etching with 37% phosphoric acid gel (H3PO4) for 30 s and etching with 15 % HCl for 120 s were investigated. Raman and IR spectroscopy showed that the treatment with both hydrochloric and phosphoric acids induced a decrease in the carbonate content of the enamel apatite. At the same time, both acids induced the formation of HPO42- ions. After H3PO4 treatment the bands due to the organic component of enamel decreased in intensity, while in-creased after HCl treatment. Replicas of H3PO4 treated enamel showed a strongly reduced permeability while replicas of HCl 15% treated samples showed a maintained permeability. A decrease of the enamel organic component, as resulted after H3PO4 treatment, involves a decrease in enamel permeability, while the increase of the organic matter (achieved by HCl treat-ment) still maintains enamel permeability. These results suggested a correlation between the amount of the organic matter, enamel permeability and caries. The results of the different studies carried out in this thesis contributed to clarify and improve the knowledge about enamel properties with important rebounds in theoretical and clinical aspects of Dentistry.