Estimation of Quasi-Rational DSGE Models

Small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium have been treated as the benchmark of much of the monetary policy literature, given their ability to explain the impact of monetary policy on output, inflation and financial markets. One cause of the empirical failure of New Keynesian models is partially due to the Rational Expectations (RE) paradigm, which entails a tight structure on the dynamics of the system. Under this hypothesis, the agents are assumed to know the data genereting process. In this paper, we propose the econometric analysis of New Keynesian DSGE models under an alternative expectations generating paradigm, which can be regarded as an intermediate position between rational expectations and learning, nameley an adapted version of the "Quasi-Rational" Expectatations (QRE) hypothesis. Given the agents' statistical model, we build a pseudo-structural form from the baseline system of Euler equations, imposing that the length of the reduced form is the same as in the `best' statistical model.

Refined Estimation of Earthquake Source Parameters: Methods, Applications and Scaling Relationships

The objective of this work of thesis is the refined estimations of source parameters. To such a purpose we used two different approaches, one in the frequency domain and the other in the time domain. In frequency domain, we analyzed the P- and S-wave displacement spectra to estimate spectral parameters, that is corner frequencies and low frequency spectral amplitudes. We used a parametric modeling approach which is combined with a multi-step, non-linear inversion strategy and includes the correction for attenuation and site effects. The iterative multi-step procedure was applied to about 700 microearthquakes in the moment range 1011-1014 N•m and recorded at the dense, wide-dynamic range, seismic networks operating in Southern Apennines (Italy). The analysis of the source parameters is often complicated when we are not able to model the propagation accurately. In this case the empirical Green function approach is a very useful tool to study the seismic source properties. In fact the Empirical Green Functions (EGFs) consent to represent the contribution of propagation and site effects to signal without using approximate velocity models. An EGF is a recorded three-component set of time-histories of a small earthquake whose source mechanism and propagation path are similar to those of the master event. Thus, in time domain, the deconvolution method of Vallée (2004) was applied to calculate the source time functions (RSTFs) and to accurately estimate source size and rupture velocity. This technique was applied to 1) large event, that is Mw=6.3 2009 L’Aquila mainshock (Central Italy), 2) moderate events, that is cluster of earthquakes of 2009 L’Aquila sequence with moment magnitude ranging between 3 and 5.6, 3) small event, i.e. Mw=2.9 Laviano mainshock (Southern Italy).

Models for reliability estimation of HVDC cable systems

The work carried out in this thesis aims at: - studying – in both simulative and experimental methods – the effect of electrical transients (i.e., Voltage Polarity Reversals VPRs, Temporary OverVoltages TOVs, and Superimposed Switching Impulses SSIs) on the aging phenomena in HVDC extruded cable insulations. Dielectric spectroscopy, conductivity measurements, Fourier Transform Infra-Red FTIR spectroscopy, and space charge measurements show variation in the insulating properties of the aged Cross-Linked Polyethylene XLPE specimens compared to non-aged ones. Scission in XLPE bonds and formation of aging chemical bonds is also noticed in aged insulations due to possible oxidation reactions. The aged materials show more ability to accumulate space charges compared to non-aged ones. An increase in both DC electrical conductivity and imaginary permittivity has been also noticed. - The development of life-based geometric design of HVDC cables in a detailed parametric analysis of all parameters that affect the design. Furthermore, the effect of both electrical and thermal transients on the design is also investigated. - The intrinsic thermal instability in HVDC cables and the effect of insulation characteristics on the thermal stability using a temperature and field iterative loop (using numerical methods – Finite Difference Method FDM). The dielectric loss coefficient is also calculated for DC cables and found to be less than that in AC cables. This emphasizes that the intrinsic thermal instability is critical in HVDC cables. - Fitting electrical conductivity models to the experimental measurements using both models found in the literature and modified models to find the best fit by considering the synergistic effect between field and temperature coefficients of electrical conductivity.

A new method for the estimation of the reverberation time from measured room impulse responses with application to Italian opera houses

The Schroeder's backward integration method is the most used method to extract the decay curve of an acoustic impulse response and to calculate the reverberation time from this curve. In the literature the limits and the possible improvements of this method are widely discussed. In this work a new method is proposed for the evaluation of the energy decay curve. The new method has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox. Its performance has been tested versus the most accredited literature method. The values of EDT and reverberation time extracted from the energy decay curves calculated with both methods have been compared in terms of the values themselves and in terms of their statistical representativeness. The main case study consists of nine Italian historical theatres in which acoustical measurements were performed. The comparison of the two extraction methods has also been applied to a critical case, i.e. the structural impulse responses of some building elements. The comparison underlines that both methods return a comparable value of the T30. Decreasing the range of evaluation, they reveal increasing differences; in particular, the main differences are in the first part of the decay, where the EDT is evaluated. This is a consequence of the fact that the new method returns a “locally" defined energy decay curve, whereas the Schroeder's method accumulates energy from the tail to the beginning of the impulse response. Another characteristic of the new method for the energy decay extraction curve is its independence on the background noise estimation. Finally, a statistical analysis is performed on the T30 and EDT values calculated from the impulse responses measurements in the Italian historical theatres. The aim of this evaluation is to know whether a subset of measurements could be considered representative for a complete characterization of these opera houses.

Closed-loop investigation of the dynamical properties of cardiomyocyte electrophysiology by means of Dynamic clamp and Mathematical modelling

The research field of my PhD concerns mathematical modeling and numerical simulation, applied to the cardiac electrophysiology analysis at a single cell level. This is possible thanks to the development of mathematical descriptions of single cellular components, ionic channels, pumps, exchangers and subcellular compartments. Due to the difficulties of vivo experiments on human cells, most of the measurements are acquired in vitro using animal models (e.g. guinea pig, dog, rabbit). Moreover, to study the cardiac action potential and all its features, it is necessary to acquire more specific knowledge about single ionic currents that contribute to the cardiac activity. Electrophysiological models of the heart have become very accurate in recent years giving rise to extremely complicated systems of differential equations. Although describing the behavior of cardiac cells quite well, the models are computationally demanding for numerical simulations and are very difficult to analyze from a mathematical (dynamical-systems) viewpoint. Simplified mathematical models that capture the underlying dynamics to a certain extent are therefore frequently used. The results presented in this thesis have confirmed that a close integration of computational modeling and experimental recordings in real myocytes, as performed by dynamic clamp, is a useful tool in enhancing our understanding of various components of normal cardiac electrophysiology, but also arrhythmogenic mechanisms in a pathological condition, especially when fully integrated with experimental data.

Small Area Estimation of Economic Security

The objective of this thesis is the small area estimation of an economic security indicator. Economic security is a complex concept that carries a variety of meanings. In the literature there is no a formal unambiguous definition for economic security and in this work we refer to the definition recently provided for its opposite, economic insecurity, as the “anxiety produced by the possible exposure to adverse economic events and by the anticipation of the difficulty to recover from them” (Bossert and D’Ambrosio, 2013). In the last decade interest for economic insecurity/security has grown constantly, especially since the financial crisis of 2008, but even more in the last year after the economic consequences due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In this research, economic security is measures through a longitudinal indicator that takes into account the income levels of Italian households, from 2014 to 2016. The target areas are groups of Italian provinces, for which the indicator is estimated using longitudinal data taken from EU-SILC survey. We notice that the sample size is too low to obtain reliable estimates for our target areas. Therefore we resort to some Small Area Estimation strategies to improve the reliability of the results. In particular we consider small area models specified at area level. Besides the basic Fay-Herriot area-level model, we propose to consider some longitudinal extensions, including time-specific random effects following an autoregressive processes of order 1 (AR1) and a moving average of order 1 (MA1). We found that all the small area models used show a significant efficiency gain, especially MA1 model.

Indoor and Outdoor Natural Radioactivity in the Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy): Estimation of Doses and Radiological Risks

Terrestrial radioactivity for most individual is the major contributor to the total dose and is mostly provided by 238U, 232Th and 40K radionuclides. In particular indoor radioactivity is principally due to 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendent of 238U, second cause of lung cancer after cigarettes smoking. Vulsini Volcanic District is a well known quaternary volcanic area located between the northern Latium and southern Tuscany (Central Italy). It is characterized by an high natural radiation background resulting from the high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K in the volcanic products. In this context, subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust has given rise to U, Th and K enriched melts. Almost every ancient village and town located in this part of Italy has been built with volcanic rocks pertaining to the Vulsini Volcanic District. The radiological risk of living in this area has been estimated considering separately: a. the risk associated with buildings made of volcanic products and built on volcanic rock substrates b. the risk associated to soil characteristics. The former has been evaluated both using direct 222Rn indoor measurements and simulations of “standard rooms” built with the tuffs and lavas from the Vulsini Volcanic District investigated in this work. The latter has been carried out by using in situ measurements of 222Rn activity in the soil gases. A radon risk map for the Bolsena village has been developed using soil radon measurements integrating geological information. Data of airborne radioactivity in ambient aerosol at two elevated stations in Emilia Romagna (North Italy) under the influence of Fukushima plume have been collected, effective doses have been calculated and an extensive comparison between doses associated with artificial and natural sources in different area have been described and discussed.

Methods for the estimation of the cortical activity and connectivity during cognitive tasks in humans

The research activity characterizing the present thesis was mainly centered on the design, development and validation of methodologies for the estimation of stationary and time-varying connectivity between different regions of the human brain during specific complex cognitive tasks. Such activity involved two main aspects: i) the development of a stable, consistent and reproducible procedure for functional connectivity estimation with a high impact on neuroscience field and ii) its application to real data from healthy volunteers eliciting specific cognitive processes (attention and memory). In particular the methodological issues addressed in the present thesis consisted in finding out an approach to be applied in neuroscience field able to: i) include all the cerebral sources in connectivity estimation process; ii) to accurately describe the temporal evolution of connectivity networks; iii) to assess the significance of connectivity patterns; iv) to consistently describe relevant properties of brain networks. The advancement provided in this thesis allowed finding out quantifiable descriptors of cognitive processes during a high resolution EEG experiment involving subjects performing complex cognitive tasks.

Hardware/Software Design of Dynamic Real-Time Schedulers for Embedded Multiprocessor Systems

The new generation of multicore processors opens new perspectives for the design of embedded systems. Multiprocessing, however, poses new challenges to the scheduling of real-time applications, in which the ever-increasing computational demands are constantly flanked by the need of meeting critical time constraints. Many research works have contributed to this field introducing new advanced scheduling algorithms. However, despite many of these works have solidly demonstrated their effectiveness, the actual support for multiprocessor real-time scheduling offered by current operating systems is still very limited. This dissertation deals with implementative aspects of real-time schedulers in modern embedded multiprocessor systems. The first contribution is represented by an open-source scheduling framework, which is capable of realizing complex multiprocessor scheduling policies, such as G-EDF, on conventional operating systems exploiting only their native scheduler from user-space. A set of experimental evaluations compare the proposed solution to other research projects that pursue the same goals by means of kernel modifications, highlighting comparable scheduling performances. The principles that underpin the operation of the framework, originally designed for symmetric multiprocessors, have been further extended first to asymmetric ones, which are subjected to major restrictions such as the lack of support for task migrations, and later to re-programmable hardware architectures (FPGAs). In the latter case, this work introduces a scheduling accelerator, which offloads most of the scheduling operations to the hardware and exhibits extremely low scheduling jitter. The realization of a portable scheduling framework presented many interesting software challenges. One of these has been represented by timekeeping. In this regard, a further contribution is represented by a novel data structure, called addressable binary heap (ABH). Such ABH, which is conceptually a pointer-based implementation of a binary heap, shows very interesting average and worst-case performances when addressing the problem of tick-less timekeeping of high-resolution timers.