The secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States market evolution and product valuation

In this work we discuss the secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States of America. First, we give an overview of the life settlement market: how it came into existence, its growth prospects and the ethical issues it arises. Secondly, we discuss the characteristics of the different life insurance products present in the market and describe how life settlements are originated. Life settlement transactions tend to be long and complex transactions that require the involvement of a number of parties. Also, a direct investment into life insurance policies is fraught with a number of practical issues and entails risks that are not directly related to longevity. This may reduce the efficiency of a direct investment in physical policies. For these reasons, a synthetic longevity market has evolved. The number of parties involved in a synthetic longevity transaction is typically smaller and the broker-dealer transferring the longevity exposure will be retaining most or all of the risks a physical investment entails. Finally, we describe the main methods used in the market to evaluate life settlement investments and the role of life expectancy providers.

Essays in Applied Insurance Economics

The papers included in this thesis deal with a few aspects of insurance economics that have seldom been dealt with in the applied literature. In the first paper I apply for the first time the tools of the economics of crime to study the determinants of frauds, using data on Italian provinces. The contributions to the literature are manifold: -The price of insuring has a positive correlation with the propensity to defraud -Social norms constraint fraudulent behavior, but their strength is curtailed in economic downturns -I apply a simple extension of the Random Coefficient model, which allows for the presence of time invariant covariates and asymmetries in the impact of the regressors. The second paper assesses how the evolution of macro prudential regulation of insurance companies has been reflected in their equity price. I employ a standard event study methodology, deriving the definition of the “control” and “treatment” groups from what is implied by the regulatory framework. The main results are: -Markets care about the evolution of the legislation. Their perception has shifted from a first positive assessment of a possible implicit “too big to fail” subsidy to a more negative one related to its cost in terms of stricter capital requirement -The size of this phenomenon is positively related to leverage, size and on the geographical location of the insurance companies The third paper introduces a novel methodology to forecast non-life insurance premiums and profitability as function of macroeconomic variables, using the simultaneous equation framework traditionally employed macroeconometric models and a simple theoretical model of insurance pricing to derive a long term relationship between premiums, claims expenses and short term rates. The model is shown to provide a better forecast of premiums and profitability compared with the single equation specifications commonly used in applied analysis.

Quantifying the Economics of Medical Malpractice - A View from a Civil Law Perspective

Life is full of uncertainties. Legal rules should have a clear intention, motivation and purpose in order to diminish daily uncertainties. However, practice shows that their consequences are complex and hard to predict. For instance, tort law has the general objectives of deterring future negligent behavior and compensating the victims of someone else's negligence. Achieving these goals are particularly difficult in medical malpractice cases. To start with, when patients search for medical care they are typically sick in the first place. In case harm materializes during the treatment, it might be very hard to assess if it was due to substandard medical care or to the patient's poor health conditions. Moreover, the practice of medicine has a positive externality on the society, meaning that the design of legal rules is crucial: for instance, it should not result in physicians avoiding practicing their activity just because they are afraid of being sued even when they acted according to the standard level of care. The empirical literature on medical malpractice has been developing substantially in the past two decades, with the American case being the most studied one. Evidence from civil law tradition countries is more difficult to find. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the empirical literature on medical malpractice, using two civil law countries as a case-study: Spain and Italy. The goal of this thesis is to investigate, in the first place, some of the consequences of having two separate sub-systems (administrative and civil) coexisting within the same legal system, which is common in civil law tradition countries with a public national health system (such as Spain, France and Portugal). When this holds, different procedures might apply depending on the type of hospital where the injury took place (essentially whether it is a public hospital or a private hospital). Therefore, a patient injured in a public hospital should file a claim in administrative courts while a patient suffering an identical medical accident should file a claim in civil courts. A natural question that the reader might pose is why should both administrative and civil courts decide medical malpractice cases? Moreover, can this specialization of courts influence how judges decide medical malpractice cases? In the past few years, there was a general concern with patient safety, which is currently on the agenda of several national governments. Some initiatives have been taken at the international level, with the aim of preventing harm to patients during treatment and care. A negligently injured patient might present a claim against the health care provider with the aim of being compensated for the economic loss and for pain and suffering. In several European countries, health care is mainly provided by a public national health system, which means that if a patient harmed in a public hospital succeeds in a claim against the hospital, public expenditures increase because the State takes part in the litigation process. This poses a problem in a context of increasing national health expenditures and public debt. In Italy, with the aim of increasing patient safety, some regions implemented a monitoring system on medical malpractice claims. However, if properly implemented, this reform shall also allow for a reduction in medical malpractice insurance costs. This thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a review of the empirical literature on medical malpractice, where studies on outcomes and merit of claims, costs and defensive medicine are presented. Chapter 2 presents an empirical analysis of medical malpractice claims arriving to the Spanish Supreme Court. The focus is on reversal rates for civil and administrative decisions. Administrative decisions appealed by the plaintiff have the highest reversal rates. The results show a bias in lower administrative courts, which tend to focus on the State side. We provide a detailed explanation for these results, which can rely on the organization of administrative judges career. Chapter 3 assesses predictors of compensation in medical malpractice cases appealed to the Spanish Supreme Court and investigates the amount of damages attributed to patients. The results show horizontal equity between administrative and civil decisions (controlling for observable case characteristics) and vertical inequity (patients suffering more severe injuries tend to receive higher payouts). In order to execute these analyses, a database of medical malpractice decisions appealed to the Administrative and Civil Chambers of the Spanish Supreme Court from 2006 until 2009 (designated by the Spanish Supreme Court Medical Malpractice Dataset (SSCMMD)) has been created. A description of how the SSCMMD was built and of the Spanish legal system is presented as well. Chapter 4 includes an empirical investigation of the effect of a monitoring system for medical malpractice claims on insurance premiums. In Italy, some regions adopted this policy in different years, while others did not. The study uses data on insurance premiums from Italian public hospitals for the years 2001-2008. This is a significant difference as most of the studies use the insurance company as unit of analysis. Although insurance premiums have risen from 2001 to 2008, the increase was lower for regions adopting a monitoring system for medical claims. Possible implications of this system are also provided. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the main findings, describes possible future research and concludes.

Essays on Unemployment Insurance

Can the potential availability of unemployment insurance (UI) affect the behavior of employed workers and the duration of their employment spells? After discussing few straightforward reasons why UI may affect employment duration, I apply a regression kink design (RKD) to address this question using linked employer-employee data from the Brazilian labor market. Exploiting the UI schedule, I find that potential benefit level significantly affects the duration of employment spells. This effect is local to low skilled workers and, surprisingly, indicates that a 1\% increase in unemployment benefits increases job duration by around 0.3\%. Such result is driven by the fact that higher UI decreases the probability of job quits, which are not covered by UI in Brazil. These estimates are robust to permutation tests and a number of falsification tests. I develop a reduced-form welfare formula to assess the economic relevance of this result. Based on that, I show that the positive effect on employment duration implies in a higher optimal benefit level. Moreover, the formula shows that the elasticity of employment duration impacts welfare just with the same weight as the well-known elasticity of unemployment duration to benefit level.

Environmental assessment of industrial chemical and primary sector processes from a life cycle perspective

During the PhD program in chemistry at the University of Bologna, the environmental sustainability of some industrial processes was studied through the application of the LCA methodology. The efforts were focused on the study of processes under development, in order to assess their environmental impacts to guide their transfer on an industrial scale. Processes that could meet the principles of Green Chemistry have been selected and their environmental benefits have been evaluated through a holistic approach. The use of renewable sources was assessed through the study of terephthalic acid production from biomass (which showed that only the use of waste can provide an environmental benefit) and a new process for biogas upgrading (whose potential is to act as a carbon capture technology). Furthermore, the basis for the development of a new methodology for the prediction of the environmental impact of ionic liquids has been laid. It has already shown good qualities in identifying impact trends, but further research on it is needed to obtain a more reliable and usable model. In the context of sustainable development that will not only be sector-specific, the environmental performance of some processes linked to the primary production sector has also been evaluated. The impacts of some organic farming practices in the wine production were analysed, the use of the Cereal Unit parameter was proposed as a functional unit for the comparison of different crop rotations, and the carbon footprint of school canteen meals was calculated. The results of the analyses confirm that sustainability in the industrial production sector should be assessed from a life cycle perspective, in order to consider all the flows involved during the different phases. In particular, it is necessary that environmental assessments adopt a cradle-to-gate approach, to avoid shifting the environmental burden from one phase to another.