Quantitative evaluation of household nutrition patterns: an econometric assessment of the UK 5-a-day impact on fruit and vegetable consumption

The present work provides an ex-post assessment of the UK 5-a-day information campaign where the positive effects of information on consumption levels are disentangled from the potentially conflicting price dynamics. A model-based estimate of the counterfactual (no-intervention) scenario is computed using data from the Expenditure and Food Survey between 2002 and 2006. For this purpose fruit and vegetable demand is modelled employing Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) specification with demographic effects and controlling for potential endogeneity of prices and total food expenditure.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

Essays on the political economy of European integration

Recently, a rising interest in political and economic integration/disintegration issues has been developed in the political economy field. This growing strand of literature partly draws on traditional issues of fiscal federalism and optimum public good provision and focuses on a trade-off between the benefits of centralization, arising from economies of scale or externalities, and the costs of harmonizing policies as a consequence of the increased heterogeneity of individual preferences in an international union or in a country composed of at least two regions. This thesis stems from this strand of literature and aims to shed some light on two highly relevant aspects of the political economy of European integration. The first concerns the role of public opinion in the integration process; more precisely, how economic benefits and costs of integration shape citizens' support for European Union (EU) membership. The second is the allocation of policy competences among different levels of government: European, national and regional. Chapter 1 introduces the topics developed in this thesis by reviewing the main recent theoretical developments in the political economy analysis of integration processes. It is structured as follows. First, it briefly surveys a few relevant articles on economic theories of integration and disintegration processes (Alesina and Spolaore 1997, Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina et al. 2000, Casella and Feinstein 2002) and discusses their relevance for the study of the impact of economic benefits and costs on public opinion attitude towards the EU. Subsequently, it explores the links existing between such political economy literature and theories of fiscal federalism, especially with regard to normative considerations concerning the optimal allocation of competences in a union. Chapter 2 firstly proposes a model of citizens’ support for membership of international unions, with explicit reference to the EU; subsequently it tests the model on a panel of EU countries. What are the factors that influence public opinion support for the European Union (EU)? In international relations theory, the idea that citizens' support for the EU depends on material benefits deriving from integration, i.e. whether European integration makes individuals economically better off (utilitarian support), has been common since the 1970s, but has never been the subject of a formal treatment (Hix 2005). A small number of studies in the 1990s have investigated econometrically the link between national economic performance and mass support for European integration (Eichenberg and Dalton 1993; Anderson and Kalthenthaler 1996), but only making informal assumptions. The main aim of Chapter 2 is thus to propose and test our model with a view to providing a more complete and theoretically grounded picture of public support for the EU. Following theories of utilitarian support, we assume that citizens are in favour of membership if they receive economic benefits from it. To develop this idea, we propose a simple political economic model drawing on the recent economic literature on integration and disintegration processes. The basic element is the existence of a trade-off between the benefits of centralisation and the costs of harmonising policies in presence of heterogeneous preferences among countries. The approach we follow is that of the recent literature on the political economy of international unions and the unification or break-up of nations (Bolton and Roland 1997, Alesina and Wacziarg 1999, Alesina et al. 2001, 2005a, to mention only the relevant). The general perspective is that unification provides returns to scale in the provision of public goods, but reduces each member state’s ability to determine its most favoured bundle of public goods. In the simple model presented in Chapter 2, support for membership of the union is increasing in the union’s average income and in the loss of efficiency stemming from being outside the union, and decreasing in a country’s average income, while increasing heterogeneity of preferences among countries points to a reduced scope of the union. Afterwards we empirically test the model with data on the EU; more precisely, we perform an econometric analysis employing a panel of member countries over time. The second part of Chapter 2 thus tries to answer the following question: does public opinion support for the EU really depend on economic factors? The findings are broadly consistent with our theoretical expectations: the conditions of the national economy, differences in income among member states and heterogeneity of preferences shape citizens’ attitude towards their country’s membership of the EU. Consequently, this analysis offers some interesting policy implications for the present debate about ratification of the European Constitution and, more generally, about how the EU could act in order to gain more support from the European public. Citizens in many member states are called to express their opinion in national referenda, which may well end up in rejection of the Constitution, as recently happened in France and the Netherlands, triggering a European-wide political crisis. These events show that nowadays understanding public attitude towards the EU is not only of academic interest, but has a strong relevance for policy-making too. Chapter 3 empirically investigates the link between European integration and regional autonomy in Italy. Over the last few decades, the double tendency towards supranationalism and regional autonomy, which has characterised some European States, has taken a very interesting form in this country, because Italy, besides being one of the founding members of the EU, also implemented a process of decentralisation during the 1970s, further strengthened by a constitutional reform in 2001. Moreover, the issue of the allocation of competences among the EU, the Member States and the regions is now especially topical. The process leading to the drafting of European Constitution (even if then it has not come into force) has attracted much attention from a constitutional political economy perspective both on a normative and positive point of view (Breuss and Eller 2004, Mueller 2005). The Italian parliament has recently passed a new thorough constitutional reform, still to be approved by citizens in a referendum, which includes, among other things, the so called “devolution”, i.e. granting the regions exclusive competence in public health care, education and local police. Following and extending the methodology proposed in a recent influential article by Alesina et al. (2005b), which only concentrated on the EU activity (treaties, legislation, and European Court of Justice’s rulings), we develop a set of quantitative indicators measuring the intensity of the legislative activity of the Italian State, the EU and the Italian regions from 1973 to 2005 in a large number of policy categories. By doing so, we seek to answer the following broad questions. Are European and regional legislations substitutes for state laws? To what extent are the competences attributed by the European treaties or the Italian Constitution actually exerted in the various policy areas? Is their exertion consistent with the normative recommendations from the economic literature about their optimum allocation among different levels of government? The main results show that, first, there seems to be a certain substitutability between EU and national legislations (even if not a very strong one), but not between regional and national ones. Second, the EU concentrates its legislative activity mainly in international trade and agriculture, whilst social policy is where the regions and the State (which is also the main actor in foreign policy) are more active. Third, at least two levels of government (in some cases all of them) are significantly involved in the legislative activity in many sectors, even where the rationale for that is, at best, very questionable, indicating that they actually share a larger number of policy tasks than that suggested by the economic theory. It appears therefore that an excessive number of competences are actually shared among different levels of government. From an economic perspective, it may well be recommended that some competences be shared, but only when the balance between scale or spillover effects and heterogeneity of preferences suggests so. When, on the contrary, too many levels of government are involved in a certain policy area, the distinction between their different responsibilities easily becomes unnecessarily blurred. This may not only leads to a slower and inefficient policy-making process, but also risks to make it too complicate to understand for citizens, who, on the contrary, should be able to know who is really responsible for a certain policy when they vote in national,local or European elections or in referenda on national or European constitutional issues.

Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Effetti degli accordi Euro-Mediterrani sul comparto dell'ortofrutta fresca

In 1995, the European Union (EU) Member States and 12 Mediterranean countries launched in Barcelona a liberalization process that aims at establishing a free trade area (to be realized by 2010) and at promoting a sustainable and balanced economic development by the adoption of a new generation of Agreements: the Euro-Mediterranean Agreements (EMA). For the Mediterranean partner countries, the main concern is a better access for their fruit and vegetable exports to the European market. These products represent the main exports of these countries, and the EU is their first trading partner. On the other side, for the EU the main issue is not only the promotion of its products, but also the protection of its fruit and vegetables producers. Moreover, the trade with third countries is the key element of the Common Market Organization of the sector. Fruit and vegetables represent a very sensitive sector since their high seasonality, high perishability, and especially since the production of the Mediterranean countries is often similar to the European Mediterranean’s countries one. In fact, the agreements define preferences at the entrance of the EU market providing limited concessions for each partner, for specific products, limited quantities and calendars. This research tries to analyze the bilateral trade volume for fresh fruit and vegetables in the European and Italian markets in order to assess the effects of Mediterranean liberalization on this sector. Free trade of agricultural products represents a very actual topic in international trade and the Mediterranean countries, recognised as big producers of fruit and vegetables, as big exporters of their crops and actually significantly present on the European market, could be high competitors with the inward production because the outlet could be the same. The goal of this study is to provide some considerations about the competitiveness of mediterranean fruit and vegetables productions after Barcelona Process, in a first step for the European market and then also for the Italian one. The aim is to discuss the influence of the euro-mediterranean agreements on the fruit and vegetables trade between 10 foreign Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Syria, and Turkey) and 15 EU countries in the period 1995-2007, by means of a gravity model, which is a widespread methodology in international trade analysis. The basic idea of gravity models is that bilateral trade from one country to another (as the dependent variable) can be explained by a set of factors: - factors that capture the potential of a country to export goods and services; - factors that capture the propensity of a country to imports goods and services; - any other forces that either attract or inhibit bilateral trade. This analysis compares only imports’ flows by Europe and by Italy (in volumes) from Mediterranean countries, since the exports’ flows toward those foreign countries are not significant, especially for Italy. The market of fruit and vegetables appears as a high heterogeneous group so it is very difficult to show a synthesis of the analysis performed and the related results. In fact, this sector includes the so called “poor products” (such as potatoes and legumes), and the “rich product”, such as nuts or exotic fruit, and there are a lot of different goods that arouse a dissimilar consumer demand which directly influence the import requirements. Fruit and vegetables sector includes products with extremely different biological cycles, leading to a very unlike seasonality. Moreover, the Mediterranean area appears as a highly heterogeneous bloc, including countries which differ from the others for economic size, production potential, capability to export and for the relationships with the EU. The econometric estimation includes 68 analyses, 34 of which considering the European import and 34 the Italian import and the products are examined in their aggregated form and in their disaggregated level. The analysis obtains a very high R2 coefficient, which means that the methodology is able to assess the import effects on fruit and vegetables associated to the Association Agreements, preferential tariffs, regional integration, and others information involved in the equation. The empirical analysis suggests that fruits and vegetables trade flows are well explained by some parameters: size of the involved countries (especially GDP and population of the Mediterranean countries); distances; prices of imported products; local production for the aggregated products; preferential expressed tariffs like duty free; sub-regional agreements that enforce the export capability. The euro-mediterranean agreements are significant in some of the performed analysis, confirming the slow and gradual evolution of euro- Mediterranean liberalization. The euro-mediterranean liberalization provides opportunities from one side, and imposes a new important challenge from the other side. For the EU the chance is that fruit and vegetables imported from the mediterranean area represent a support for local supply and a possibility to increase the range of products existing on the market. The challenge regards the competition of foreign products with the local ones since the types of productions are similar and markets coincide, especially in the Italian issue. We need to apply a strategy based not on a trade antagonism, but on the realization of a common plane market with the Mediterranean countries. This goal could be achieved enhancing the industrial cooperation in addition to commercial relationships, and increasing investments’ flows in the Mediterranean countries aiming at transforming those countries from potential competitors to trade partners and creating new commercial policies to export towards extra European countries.

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Le strategie di internazionalizzazione delle imprese distrettuali: un'analisi comparata di tre diversi sistemi locali di produzione in Emilia Romagna

Since the Nineties, the process of globalization has caused a sharp increase in the real and financial integration of the worldwide economy, reducing the obstacles to international trade and minimizing the cost of transaction. The entrance of foreign firms in the domestic market has deeply modified the competitive situation of Italian enterprises, which have been forced to change their strategies in order to cope with those of the new competitors. In this scenario, internationalization is no longer one of the different strategic options available for the firm, but it becomes a forced choice to maintain or acquire a competitive advantage sustainable over time. Internationalization strategies of SMEs, however, are hindered by the shortage of financial resources and entrepreneurial skills, therefore this kind of firms tends toward light forms of foreign expansion, like export and subcontracting. Despite this, many studies have demonstrated that the district localisation increases the firms’ productivity and innovative capacity, so their competiveness both at a domestic and international level. The majority of these empirical contributions has focused mainly on the analysis of commercial flows, confirming that district enterprises reach a superior international performance compared to their external competitors. On the contrary, only few works have tried to evaluate the existence of a district effect on the firms’ ability to invest abroad, but the obtained results are not straightforward. One of the reason of these conclusions is that the phenomena has been analysed without taking into account the differences existing between districts in terms of enterprises’ dimension, diffusion of industrial groups and, above all, the sector of productive specialization, because the technological content of production could improve the innovativeness of district firms, allowing them to adopt advanced forms of internationalisation as foreign direct investments (FDI). The aim of the thesis is to further investigate the district effect on internationalisation, trough an econometric analysis of the international strategies carried out by firms localised in three different local system of production characterised by different technological specialization.

Determinants of child undernutrition in India. A micro-case study to operationalize the Capability Approach

The present research aims at shedding light on the demanding puzzle characterizing the issue of child undernutrition in India. Indeed, the so called ‘Indian development paradox’ identifies the phenomenon according to which higher level of income per capita is recorded alongside a lethargic reduction in the proportion of underweight children aged below three years. Thus, in the time period occurring from 2000 to 2005, real Gross Domestic Production per capita has annually grown at 5.4%, whereas the proportion of children who are underweight has declined from 47% to 46%, a mere one point percent. Such trend opens up the space for discussing the traditionally assumed linkage between income-poverty and undernutrition as well as food intervention as the main focus of policies designed to fight child hunger. Also, it unlocks doors for evaluating the role of an alternative economic approach aiming at explaining undernutrition, such as the Capability Approach. The Capability Approach argues for widening the informational basis to account not only for resources, but also for variables related to liberties, opportunities and autonomy in pursuing what individuals value.The econometric analysis highlights the relevance of including behavioral factors when explaining child undernutrition. In particular, the ability of the mother to move freely in the community without the need of asking permission to her husband or mother-in-law is statistically significant when included in the model, which accounts also for confounding traditional variables, such as economic wealth and food security. Also, focusing on agency, results indicates the necessity of measuring autonomy in different domains and the need of improving the measurement scale for agency data, especially with regards the domain of household duties. Finally, future research is required to investigate policy venues for increasing agency in women and in the communities they live in as viable strategy for reducing the plague of child undernutrition in India.

A Multilevel Model with Time Series Components for the Analysis of Tribal Art Prices

In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.

The impact of R&D in firm value across Europe

In this thesis the impact of R&D expenditures on firm market value and stock returns is examined. This is performed in a sample of European listed firms for the period 2000-2009. I apply different linear and GMM econometric estimations for testing the impact of R&D on market prices and construct country portfolios based on firms’ R&D expenditure to market capitalization ratio for studying the effect of R&D on stock returns. The results confirm that more innovative firms have a better market valuation,investors consider R&D as an asset that produces long-term benefits for corporations. The impact of R&D on firm value differs across countries. It is significantly modulated by the financial and legal environment where firms operate. Other firm and industry characteristics seem to play a determinant role when investors value R&D. First, only larger firms with lower financial leverage that operate in highly innovative sectors decide to disclose their R&D investment. Second, the markets assign a premium to small firms, which operate in hi-tech sectors compared to larger enterprises for low-tech industries. On the other hand, I provide empirical evidence indicating that generally highly R&D-intensive firms may enhance mispricing problems related to firm valuation. As R&D contributes to the estimation of future stock returns, portfolios that comprise high R&D-intensive stocks may earn significant excess returns compared to the less innovative after controlling for size and book-to-market risk. Further, the most innovative firms are generally more risky in terms of stock volatility but not systematically more risky than low-tech firms. Firms that operate in Continental Europe suffer more mispricing compared to Anglo-Saxon peers but the former are less volatile, other things being equal. The sectors where firms operate are determinant even for the impact of R&D on stock returns; this effect is much stronger in hi-tech industries.

Politiche Antitrust e crescita economica

Negli ultimi anni le istituzioni e la regolamentazione hanno svolto un ruolo sempre più importante nell’analisi della crescita economica. Tuttavia, non è facile interpretare le istituzioni e gli effetti dei regolamenti sulla crescita attraverso indicatori che tendono a “misurare” le istituzioni. Lo scopo di questa ricerca è analizzare la relazione di lungo periodo tra la crescita economica e la regolamentazione e il ruolo della regolamentazione antitrust sulla crescita economica. La stima econometrica dei modelli di crescita con la concorrenza e gli indicatori di potere di mercato si base su un dataset appositamente costruito che copre 211 Paesi, su un arco temporale massimo di 50 anni (da 1960 a 2009). In particolare, cerchiamo di identificare un quadro analitico volto a integrare l’analisi istituzionale ed economica al fine di valutare il ruolo della regolamentazione e, più in generale, il ruolo delle istituzioni nella crescita economica. Dopo una revisione della letteratura teorica ed empirica sulla crescita e le istituzioni, vi presentiamo l’analisi dell'impatto normativo (RIA) in materia di concorrenza, e analizziamo le principali misure di regolamentazione, la governance e le misure antitrust. Per rispondere alla nostra domanda di ricerca si stimano modelli di crescita prendendo in considerazione tre diverse misure di regolamentazione: la Regulation Impact (RI), la Governance (GOV), e la libertà economica (LIB). Nel modello a effetti fissi, RI, gli effetti della legislazione antitrust sulla crescita economica sono significativi e positivi, e gli effetti di durata antitrust sono significativi, ma negativi. Nel pannel dinamico, GOV, gli effetti dell’indicatore di governance sulla crescita sono notevoli, ma negativo. Nel pannel dinamico, LIB, gli effetti della LIB sono significativi e negativi.

International openness in transition countries: further evidence on foreign direct investment

The thesis focuses on the process of international openness of Transition Countries. This study provides a theoretical analysis based on reference literature, and an empirical analysis which is aimed at estimating some main effects of Foreign Direct Investment. Transition has represented a highly complex phenomenon, characterized by several aspects, whose interaction has shaped the developmental path of each country involved. Although the thesis focuses on economic issues it is outstanding to underline that Transition implies political, institutional, and even social deep changes, which must be taken into consideration in the general overview of the contex. The empirical part has been developed along two different ways: a country analysis and a firm analysis, thus allowing to widen the study and delve deeper into the use of econometric instruments. More specifically, in the first empirical stage both static (Fixed Effects) and dynamic (LSDV Corrected) methodologies have been implemented, whereas in the second stage the Cox Proportional Function has been chosen in order to handle with censored data.

Impatti paesaggistici ed economici delle misure agroambientali nell'ambito dei programmi di sviluppo rurale

La ricerca è mirata a valutare come l’attuazione delle politiche ambientali di Sviluppo Rurale possa contribuire al miglioramento del paesaggio, analizzando i suoi effetti territoriali. Nell’ambito del caso di studio della Regione Emilia-Romagna vengono analizzate le misure agro-ambientali e di forestazione agricola dal 1994 al 2011, comprendendo gli interventi realizzati con i Regolamenti (CEE) 2078/1992, 2080/1992 e dai Programmi di Sviluppo Rurale (PSR) 2000-2006 e 2007-2013. In particolare, sono approfonditi i fattori che determinano la partecipazione territoriale delle misure agro-ambientali, individuate a livello aziendale le motivazioni alla partecipazione per le azioni con effetto diretto sul paesaggio, valutati i conseguenti effetti tecnico-economici e analizzati gli impatti degli interventi sul paesaggio a livello territoriale, in funzione del contesto ambientale. I risultati hanno consentito di approfondire quanto già riportato nelle valutazioni istituzionali dei PSR e in letteratura scientifica, individuando i fattori determinanti della partecipazione a livello regionale. A questo scopo sono state utilizzate analisi di econometria spaziale che hanno permesso di evidenziare effetti di concentrazione territoriale delle superfici sotto impegno, in funzione delle priorità della misura e degli ordinamenti produttivi dei beneficiari. Sono stati inoltre analizzati gli impatti paesaggistici in un’area di studio ristretta a livello territoriale e aziendale: gli interventi specifici, in alcuni contesti territoriali dove è stata raggiunta una certa concentrazione delle superfici sotto impegno, hanno modificato il paesaggio rurale, differenziandolo rispetto alla matrice agricola intensiva in cui sono stati inseriti. A livello aziendale sono stati rilevati effetti significativi sull’economia dei beneficiari che scelgono di aderire a tali misure, con un diffuso effetto di riduzione della redditività. I contributi compensano in maniera differenziata i costi legati all’implementazione degli interventi in funzione della tipologia di intervento e delle scelte tecniche aziendali adottate per la loro gestione.

Modelli Gravitazionali per l'analisi del Commercio Internazionale

Il modello gravitazionale e' ormai diventato un "cavallo da battaglia" in economia internazionle ed e' comunemente utilizzato nella determinazione dei flussi commerciali. Recentemente, molti studi hanno mostrato l'importanza della dipendenza spaziale, che va' a considerare quegli effetti dovuti al cosiddetto "third country". Intervengono a questo scopo la modellistica e le tecniche di stima di Econometria Spaziale. Verra' fatto uso di tali tecniche allo scopo di stimare con un modello gravitazionale spaziale il commercio internazionale tra paesi dell'OCSE per un panel di 22 anni. L'obiettivo e' quindi duplice: da un lato, si andra' ad applicare le piu' moderne tecniche di Econometria Spaziale, in un campo in cui tali contributi scarseggiano. Dall'altro lato,verra' fornita una interpretazione del comportamento del commercio internazionale tra paesi dell'OCSE, approfondendo gli aspetti relativi all'effetto del"third country" e del fenomeno migratorio. Inoltre , viene proposta un'analisi che ha lo scopo di validare l'ipotesi di omissione della distanza dal modello gravitazione strutturale.