Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Unveiling the expansion history of the universe with cosmic chronometers and gravitational waves

This Thesis explores two novel and independent cosmological probes, Cosmic Chronometers (CCs) and Gravitational Waves (GWs), to measure the expansion history of the Universe. CCs provide direct and cosmology-independent measurements of the Hubble parameter H(z) up to z∼2. In parallel, GWs provide a direct measurement of the luminosity distance without requiring additional calibration, thus yielding a direct measurement of the Hubble constant H0=H(z=0). This Thesis extends the methodologies of both of these probes to maximize their scientific yield. This is achieved by accounting for the interplay of cosmological and astrophysical parameters to derive them jointly, study possible degeneracies, and eventually minimize potential systematic effects. As a legacy value, this work also provides interesting insights into galaxy evolution and compact binary population properties. The first part presents a detailed study of intermediate-redshift passive galaxies as CCs, with a focus on the selection process and the study of their stellar population properties using specific spectral features. From their differential aging, we derive a new measurement of the Hubble parameter H(z) and thoroughly assess potential systematics. In the second part, we develop a novel methodology and pipeline to obtain joint cosmological and astrophysical population constraints using GWs in combination with galaxy catalogs. This is applied to GW170817 to obtain a measurement of H0. We then perform realistic forecasts to predict joint cosmological and astrophysical constraints from black hole binary mergers for upcoming gravitational wave observatories and galaxy surveys. Using these two probes we provide an independent reconstruction of H(z) with direct measurements of H0 from GWs and H(z) up to z∼2 from CCs and demonstrate that they can be powerful independent probes to unveil the expansion history of the Universe.

Elf magnetic field influence on ION Channels studied by Patch Clamp Technique: exposure set up and "Whole Cell" measurements on Potassium currents

The aim of this thesis was to study the effects of extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic magnetic fields on potassium currents in neural cell lines ( Neuroblastoma SK-N-BE ), using the whole-cell Patch Clamp technique. Such technique is a sophisticated tool capable to investigate the electrophysiological activity at a single cell, and even at single channel level. The total potassium ion currents through the cell membrane was measured while exposing the cells to a combination of static (DC) and alternate (AC) magnetic fields according to the prediction of the so-called ‘ Ion Resonance Hypothesis ’. For this purpose we have designed and fabricated a magnetic field exposure system reaching a good compromise between magnetic field homogeneity and accessibility to the biological sample under the microscope. The magnetic field exposure system consists of three large orthogonal pairs of square coils surrounding the patch clamp set up and connected to the signal generation unit, able to generate different combinations of static and/or alternate magnetic fields. Such system was characterized in term of field distribution and uniformity through computation and direct field measurements. No statistically significant changes in the potassium ion currents through cell membrane were reveled when the cells were exposed to AC/DC magnetic field combination according to the afore mentioned ‘Ion Resonance Hypothesis’.