Bayesian space-time data fusion for real-time forecasting and map uncertainty

Environmental computer models are deterministic models devoted to predict several environmental phenomena such as air pollution or meteorological events. Numerical model output is given in terms of averages over grid cells, usually at high spatial and temporal resolution. However, these outputs are often biased with unknown calibration and not equipped with any information about the associated uncertainty. Conversely, data collected at monitoring stations is more accurate since they essentially provide the true levels. Due the leading role played by numerical models, it now important to compare model output with observations. Statistical methods developed to combine numerical model output and station data are usually referred to as data fusion. In this work, we first combine ozone monitoring data with ozone predictions from the Eta-CMAQ air quality model in order to forecast real-time current 8-hour average ozone level defined as the average of the previous four hours, current hour, and predictions for the next three hours. We propose a Bayesian downscaler model based on first differences with a flexible coefficient structure and an efficient computational strategy to fit model parameters. Model validation for the eastern United States shows consequential improvement of our fully inferential approach compared with the current real-time forecasting system. Furthermore, we consider the introduction of temperature data from a weather forecast model into the downscaler, showing improved real-time ozone predictions. Finally, we introduce a hierarchical model to obtain spatially varying uncertainty associated with numerical model output. We show how we can learn about such uncertainty through suitable stochastic data fusion modeling using some external validation data. We illustrate our Bayesian model by providing the uncertainty map associated with a temperature output over the northeastern United States.

Reverse Engineering tools: development and experimentation of innovative methods for physical and geometrical data integration and post-processing

In recent years, the use of Reverse Engineering systems has got a considerable interest for a wide number of applications. Therefore, many research activities are focused on accuracy and precision of the acquired data and post processing phase improvements. In this context, this PhD Thesis deals with the definition of two novel methods for data post processing and data fusion between physical and geometrical information. In particular a technique has been defined for error definition in 3D points’ coordinates acquired by an optical triangulation laser scanner, with the aim to identify adequate correction arrays to apply under different acquisition parameters and operative conditions. Systematic error in data acquired is thus compensated, in order to increase accuracy value. Moreover, the definition of a 3D thermogram is examined. Object geometrical information and its thermal properties, coming from a thermographic inspection, are combined in order to have a temperature value for each recognizable point. Data acquired by an optical triangulation laser scanner are also used to normalize temperature values and make thermal data independent from thermal-camera point of view.

Progetto di reti Sensori Wireless e tecniche di Fusione Sensoriale

Ambient Intelligence (AmI) envisions a world where smart, electronic environments are aware and responsive to their context. People moving into these settings engage many computational devices and systems simultaneously even if they are not aware of their presence. AmI stems from the convergence of three key technologies: ubiquitous computing, ubiquitous communication and natural interfaces. The dependence on a large amount of fixed and mobile sensors embedded into the environment makes of Wireless Sensor Networks one of the most relevant enabling technologies for AmI. WSN are complex systems made up of a number of sensor nodes, simple devices that typically embed a low power computational unit (microcontrollers, FPGAs etc.), a wireless communication unit, one or more sensors and a some form of energy supply (either batteries or energy scavenger modules). Low-cost, low-computational power, low energy consumption and small size are characteristics that must be taken into consideration when designing and dealing with WSNs. In order to handle the large amount of data generated by a WSN several multi sensor data fusion techniques have been developed. The aim of multisensor data fusion is to combine data to achieve better accuracy and inferences than could be achieved by the use of a single sensor alone. In this dissertation we present our results in building several AmI applications suitable for a WSN implementation. The work can be divided into two main areas: Multimodal Surveillance and Activity Recognition. Novel techniques to handle data from a network of low-cost, low-power Pyroelectric InfraRed (PIR) sensors are presented. Such techniques allow the detection of the number of people moving in the environment, their direction of movement and their position. We discuss how a mesh of PIR sensors can be integrated with a video surveillance system to increase its performance in people tracking. Furthermore we embed a PIR sensor within the design of a Wireless Video Sensor Node (WVSN) to extend its lifetime. Activity recognition is a fundamental block in natural interfaces. A challenging objective is to design an activity recognition system that is able to exploit a redundant but unreliable WSN. We present our activity in building a novel activity recognition architecture for such a dynamic system. The architecture has a hierarchical structure where simple nodes performs gesture classification and a high level meta classifiers fuses a changing number of classifier outputs. We demonstrate the benefit of such architecture in terms of increased recognition performance, and fault and noise robustness. Furthermore we show how we can extend network lifetime by performing a performance-power trade-off. Smart objects can enhance user experience within smart environments. We present our work in extending the capabilities of the Smart Micrel Cube (SMCube), a smart object used as tangible interface within a tangible computing framework, through the development of a gesture recognition algorithm suitable for this limited computational power device. Finally the development of activity recognition techniques can greatly benefit from the availability of shared dataset. We report our experience in building a dataset for activity recognition. Such dataset is freely available to the scientific community for research purposes and can be used as a testbench for developing, testing and comparing different activity recognition techniques.

Towards a Reconstruction of Thermal Properties of Light Nuclei from Fusion - Evaporation reactions

This thesis work has been developed in the framework of a new experimental campaign, proposed by the NUCL-EX Collaboration (INFN III Group), in order to progress in the understanding of the statistical properties of light nuclei, at excitation energies above particle emission threshold, by measuring exclusive data from fusion-evaporation reactions. The determination of the nuclear level density in the A~20 region, the understanding of the statistical behavior of light nuclei with excitation energies ~3 A.MeV, and the measurement of observables linked to the presence of cluster structures of nuclear excited levels are the main physics goals of this work. On the theory side, the contribution to this project given by this work lies in the development of a dedicated Monte-Carlo Hauser-Feshbach code for the evaporation of the compound nucleus. The experimental part of this thesis has consisted in the participation to the measurement 12C+12C at 95 MeV beam energy, at Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro - INFN, using the GARFIELD+Ring Counter(RCo) set-up, from the beam-time request to the data taking, data reduction, detector calibrations and data analysis. Different results of the data analysis are presented in this thesis, together with a theoretical study of the system, performed with the new statistical decay code. As a result of this work, constraints on the nuclear level density at high excitation energy for light systems ranging from C up to Mg are given. Moreover, pre-equilibrium effects, tentatively interpreted as alpha-clustering effects, are put in evidence, both in the entrance channel of the reaction and in the dissipative dynamics on the path towards thermalisation.

Inertial and magnetic sensors for upper limb kinematics: modeling, calibration, sensor fusion and clinical applications

The primary aim of the research activity presented in this PhD thesis was the development of an innovative hardware and software solution for creating a unique tool for kinematics and electromyographic analysis of the human body in an ecological setting. For this purpose, innovative algorithms have been proposed regarding different aspects of inertial and magnetic data elaboration: magnetometer calibration and magnetic field mapping (Chapter 2), data calibration (Chapter 3) and sensor-fusion algorithm. Topics that may conflict with the confidentiality agreement between University of Bologna and NCS Lab will not be covered in this thesis. After developing and testing the wireless platform, research activities were focused on its clinical validation. The first clinical study aimed to evaluate the intra and interobserver reproducibility in order to evaluate three-dimensional humero-scapulo-thoracic kinematics in an outpatient setting (Chapter 4). A second study aimed to evaluate the effect of Latissimus Dorsi Tendon Transfer on shoulder kinematics and Latissimus Dorsi activation in humerus intra - extra rotations (Chapter 5). Results from both clinical studies have demonstrated the ability of the developed platform to enter into daily clinical practice, providing useful information for patients' rehabilitation.

Development of JADE, a new software for the verification and validation of nuclear data libraries

Nuclear cross sections are the pillars onto which the transport simulation of particles and radiations is built on. Since the nuclear data libraries production chain is extremely complex and made of different steps, it is mandatory to foresee stringent verification and validation procedures to be applied to it. The work here presented has been focused on the development of a new python based software called JADE, whose objective is to give a significant help in increasing the level of automation and standardization of these procedures in order to reduce the time passing between new libraries releases and, at the same time, increasing their quality. After an introduction to nuclear fusion (which is the field where the majority of the V\&V action was concentrated for the time being) and to the simulation of particles and radiations transport, the motivations leading to JADE development are discussed. Subsequently, the code general architecture and the implemented benchmarks (both experimental and computational) are described. After that, the results coming from the major application of JADE during the research years are presented. At last, after a final discussion on the objective reached by JADE, the possible brief, mid and long time developments for the project are discussed.