Finite element models of coseismic deformation due to the 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) and 2008 Wenchuan(China) earthquakes

The topic of my Ph.D. thesis is the finite element modeling of coseismic deformation imaged by DInSAR and GPS data. I developed a method to calculate synthetic Green functions with finite element models (FEMs) and then use linear inversion methods to determine the slip distribution on the fault plane. The method is applied to the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy) and to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (China). I focus on the influence of rheological features of the earth's crust by implementing seismic tomographic data and the influence of topography by implementing Digital Elevation Models (DEM) layers on the FEMs. Results for the L’Aquila earthquake highlight the non-negligible influence of the medium structure: homogeneous and heterogeneous models show discrepancies up to 20% in the fault slip distribution values. Furthermore, in the heterogeneous models a new area of slip appears above the hypocenter. Regarding the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the very steep topographic relief of Longmen Shan Range is implemented in my FE model. A large number of DEM layers corresponding to East China is used to achieve the complete coverage of the FE model. My objective was to explore the influence of the topography on the retrieved coseismic slip distribution. The inversion results reveals significant differences between the flat and topographic model. Thus, the flat models frequently adopted are inappropriate to represent the earth surface topographic features and especially in the case of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

A simple voltage/mass index increases the suspicion of amyloidotic cardiomyopathy: an electrocardiographic and echocardiographic study of 767 patients with increased left ventricular wall thickness due to different causes

Background-Amyloidotic cardiomyopathy (AC) can mimic true left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), including hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and hypertensive heart disease (HHD). We assessed the diagnostic value of combined electrocardiographic/echocardiographic indexes to identify AC among patients with increased echocardiographic LV wall thickness due to either different etiologies of amyloidosis or HCM or HHD. Method-First, we studied 469 consecutive patients: 262 with biopsy/genetically proven AC (with either AL or transthyretin (TTR)-related amyloidosis); 106 with HCM; 101 with HHD. We compared the diagnostic performance of: low QRS voltage, symmetric LVH, low QRS voltage plus interventricular septal thickness >1.98 cm, Sokolow index divided by the cross-sectional area of LV wall, Sokolow index divided by body surface area indexed LV mass (LVMI), Sokolow index divided by LV wall thickness, Sokolow index divided by (LV wall/height^2.7); peripheral QRS score divided by LVMI, Peripheral QRS score divided by LV wall thickness, Peripheral QRS score divided by LV wall thickness indexed to height^2.7, total QRS score divided by LVMI, total QRS score divided by LV wall thickness; total QRS score divided by (LV wall/height^2.7). We tested each criterion, separately in males and females, in the following settings: AC vs. HCM+HHD; AC vs. HCM; AL vs. HCM+HHD; AL vs. HCM; TTR vs. HCM+HHD; TTR vs. HCM. Results-Low QRS voltage showed high specificity but low sensitivity for the identification of AC. All the combined indexes had a higher diagnostic accuracy, being total QRS score divided by LV wall thickness or by LVMI associated with the best performances and the largest areas under the ROC curve. These results were validated in 298 consecutive patients with AC, HCM or HHD. Conclusions-In patients with increased LV wall thickness, a combined ECG/ echocardiogram analysis provides accurate indexes to non-invasively identify AC. Total QRS score divided by LVMI or LV wall thickness offers the best diagnostic performance.