Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Flow Field–Flow Fractionation for size analysis and characterization of nanoparticles for applications in Life Sciences

Nanotechnologies are rapidly expanding because of the opportunities that the new materials offer in many areas such as the manufacturing industry, food production, processing and preservation, and in the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industry. Size distribution of the nanoparticles determines their properties and is a fundamental parameter that needs to be monitored from the small-scale synthesis up to the bulk production and quality control of nanotech products on the market. A consequence of the increasing number of applications of nanomaterial is that the EU regulatory authorities are introducing the obligation for companies that make use of nanomaterials to acquire analytical platforms for the assessment of the size parameters of the nanomaterials. In this work, Asymmetrical Flow Field-Flow Fractionation (AF4) and Hollow Fiber F4 (HF5), hyphenated with Multiangle Light Scattering (MALS) are presented as tools for a deep functional characterization of nanoparticles. In particular, it is demonstrated the applicability of AF4-MALS for the characterization of liposomes in a wide series of mediums. Afterwards the technique is used to explore the functional features of a liposomal drug vector in terms of its biological and physical interaction with blood serum components: a comprehensive approach to understand the behavior of lipid vesicles in terms of drug release and fusion/interaction with other biological species is described, together with weaknesses and strength of the method. Afterwards the size characterization, size stability, and conjugation of azidothymidine drug molecules with a new generation of metastable drug vectors, the Metal Organic Frameworks, is discussed. Lastly, it is shown the applicability of HF5-ICP-MS for the rapid screening of samples of relevant nanorisk: rather than a deep and comprehensive characterization it this time shown a quick and smart methodology that within few steps provides qualitative information on the content of metallic nanoparticles in tattoo ink samples.

A core calculus for the analysis and implementation of biologically inspired languages

The application of Concurrency Theory to Systems Biology is in its earliest stage of progress. The metaphor of cells as computing systems by Regev and Shapiro opened the employment of concurrent languages for the modelling of biological systems. Their peculiar characteristics led to the design of many bio-inspired formalisms which achieve higher faithfulness and specificity. In this thesis we present pi@, an extremely simple and conservative extension of the pi-calculus representing a keystone in this respect, thanks to its expressiveness capabilities. The pi@ calculus is obtained by the addition of polyadic synchronisation and priority to the pi-calculus, in order to achieve compartment semantics and atomicity of complex operations respectively. In its direct application to biological modelling, the stochastic variant of the calculus, Spi@, is shown able to model consistently several phenomena such as formation of molecular complexes, hierarchical subdivision of the system into compartments, inter-compartment reactions, dynamic reorganisation of compartment structure consistent with volume variation. The pivotal role of pi@ is evidenced by its capability of encoding in a compositional way several bio-inspired formalisms, so that it represents the optimal core of a framework for the analysis and implementation of bio-inspired languages. In this respect, the encodings of BioAmbients, Brane Calculi and a variant of P Systems in pi@ are formalised. The conciseness of their translation in pi@ allows their indirect comparison by means of their encodings. Furthermore it provides a ready-to-run implementation of minimal effort whose correctness is granted by the correctness of the respective encoding functions. Further important results of general validity are stated on the expressive power of priority. Several impossibility results are described, which clearly state the superior expressiveness of prioritised languages and the problems arising in the attempt of providing their parallel implementation. To this aim, a new setting in distributed computing (the last man standing problem) is singled out and exploited to prove the impossibility of providing a purely parallel implementation of priority by means of point-to-point or broadcast communication.

Determination of bioactive and potentially toxic compounds in food: raw material analysis and shelf life evaluation

"Bioactive compounds" are extranutritional constituents that typically occur in small quantities in food. They are being intensively studied to evaluate their effects on health. Bioactive compounds include both water soluble compounds, such as phenolics, and lipidic substances such as n-3 fatty acids, tocopherols and sterols. Phenolic compounds, tocopherols and sterols are present in all plants and have been studied extensively in cereals, nuts and oil. n-3 fatty acids are present in fish and all around the vegetable kingdom. The aim of the present work was the determination of bioactive and potentially toxic compounds in cereal based foods and nuts. The first section of this study was focused on the determination of bioactive compounds in cereals. Because of that the different forms of phytosterols were investigated in hexaploid and tetraploid wheats. Hexaploid cultivars were the best source of esterified sterols (40.7% and 37.3% of total sterols for Triticum aestivum and Triticum spelta, respectively). Significant amounts of free sterols (65.5% and 60.7% of total sterols for Triticum durum and Triticum dicoccon, respectively) were found in the tetraploid cultivars. Then, free and bound phenolic compounds were identified in barley flours. HPLCESI/ MSD analysis in negative and positive ion mode established that barley free flavan-3- ols and proanthocyanidins were four dimers and four trimers having (epi)catechin and/or (epi)gallocatechin (C and/or GC) subunits. Hydroxycinnamic acids and their derivatives were the main bound phenols in barley flours. The results obtained demonstrated that barley flours were rich in phenolic compounds that showed high antioxidant activity. The study also examined the relationships between phenolic compounds and lipid oxidation of bakery. To this purpose, the investigated barley flours were used in the bakery production. The formulated oven products presented an interesting content of phenolic compounds, but they were not able to contain the lipid oxidation. Furthermore, the influence of conventional packaging on lipid oxidation of pasta was evaluated in n-3 enriched spaghetti and egg spaghetti. The results proved that conventional packaging was not appropriated to preserve pasta from lipid oxidation; in fact, pasta that was exposed to light showed a high content of potentially toxic compounds derived from lipid oxidation (such as peroxide, oxidized fatty acids and COPs). In the second section, the content of sterols, phenolic compounds, n-3 fatty acids and tocopherols in walnuts were reported. Rapid analytical techniques were used to analyze the lipid fraction and to characterize phenolic compounds in walnuts. Total lipid chromatogram was used for the simultaneous determination of the profile of sterols and tocopherols. Linoleic and linolenic acids were the most representative n-6 and n-3 essential dietary fatty acids present in these nuts. Walnuts contained substantial amounts of γ- and δ-tocopherol, which explained their antioxidant properties. Sitosterol, Δ5-avenasterol and campesterol were the major free sterols found. Capillary electrophoresis coupled to DAD and microTOF was utilized to determine phenolic content of walnut. A new compound in walnut ((2E,4E)- 8-hydroxy-2,7-dimethyl-2,4-decadiene-1,10-dioic acid 6-O-β-D-glucopiranosyl ester, [M−H]− 403.161m/z) with a structure similar to glansreginins was also identified. Phenolic compounds corresponded to 14–28% of total polar compounds quantified. Aglycone and glycosylated ellagic acid represented the principal components and account for 64–75% of total phenols in walnuts. However, the sum of glansreginins A, B and ((2E,4E)-8-hydroxy- 2,7-dimethyl-2,4-decadiene-1,10-dioic acid 6-O-β-D-glucopiranosyl ester was in the range of 72–86% of total quantified compounds.

Biomass Gasification - Process analysis and dimensioning aspects for downdraft units and gas cleaning lines

In such territories where food production is mostly scattered in several small / medium size or even domestic farms, a lot of heterogeneous residues are produced yearly, since farmers usually carry out different activities in their properties. The amount and composition of farm residues, therefore, widely change during year, according to the single production process periodically achieved. Coupling high efficiency micro-cogeneration energy units with easy handling biomass conversion equipments, suitable to treat different materials, would provide many important advantages to the farmers and to the community as well, so that the increase in feedstock flexibility of gasification units is nowadays seen as a further paramount step towards their wide spreading in rural areas and as a real necessity for their utilization at small scale. Two main research topics were thought to be of main concern at this purpose, and they were therefore discussed in this work: the investigation of fuels properties impact on gasification process development and the technical feasibility of small scale gasification units integration with cogeneration systems. According to these two main aspects, the present work was thus divided in two main parts. The first one is focused on the biomass gasification process, that was investigated in its theoretical aspects and then analytically modelled in order to simulate thermo-chemical conversion of different biomass fuels, such as wood (park waste wood and softwood), wheat straw, sewage sludge and refuse derived fuels. The main idea is to correlate the results of reactor design procedures with the physical properties of biomasses and the corresponding working conditions of gasifiers (temperature profile, above all), in order to point out the main differences which prevent the use of the same conversion unit for different materials. At this scope, a gasification kinetic free model was initially developed in Excel sheets, considering different values of air to biomass ratio and the downdraft gasification technology as particular examined application. The differences in syngas production and working conditions (process temperatures, above all) among the considered fuels were tried to be connected to some biomass properties, such elementary composition, ash and water contents. The novelty of this analytical approach was the use of kinetic constants ratio in order to determine oxygen distribution among the different oxidation reactions (regarding volatile matter only) while equilibrium of water gas shift reaction was considered in gasification zone, by which the energy and mass balances involved in the process algorithm were linked together, as well. Moreover, the main advantage of this analytical tool is the easiness by which the input data corresponding to the particular biomass materials can be inserted into the model, so that a rapid evaluation on their own thermo-chemical conversion properties is possible to be obtained, mainly based on their chemical composition A good conformity of the model results with the other literature and experimental data was detected for almost all the considered materials (except for refuse derived fuels, because of their unfitting chemical composition with the model assumptions). Successively, a dimensioning procedure for open core downdraft gasifiers was set up, by the analysis on the fundamental thermo-physical and thermo-chemical mechanisms which are supposed to regulate the main solid conversion steps involved in the gasification process. Gasification units were schematically subdivided in four reaction zones, respectively corresponding to biomass heating, solids drying, pyrolysis and char gasification processes, and the time required for the full development of each of these steps was correlated to the kinetics rates (for pyrolysis and char gasification processes only) and to the heat and mass transfer phenomena from gas to solid phase. On the basis of this analysis and according to the kinetic free model results and biomass physical properties (particles size, above all) it was achieved that for all the considered materials char gasification step is kinetically limited and therefore temperature is the main working parameter controlling this step. Solids drying is mainly regulated by heat transfer from bulk gas to the inner layers of particles and the corresponding time especially depends on particle size. Biomass heating is almost totally achieved by the radiative heat transfer from the hot walls of reactor to the bed of material. For pyrolysis, instead, working temperature, particles size and the same nature of biomass (through its own pyrolysis heat) have all comparable weights on the process development, so that the corresponding time can be differently depending on one of these factors according to the particular fuel is gasified and the particular conditions are established inside the gasifier. The same analysis also led to the estimation of reaction zone volumes for each biomass fuel, so as a comparison among the dimensions of the differently fed gasification units was finally accomplished. Each biomass material showed a different volumes distribution, so that any dimensioned gasification unit does not seem to be suitable for more than one biomass species. Nevertheless, since reactors diameters were found out quite similar for all the examined materials, it could be envisaged to design a single units for all of them by adopting the largest diameter and by combining together the maximum heights of each reaction zone, as they were calculated for the different biomasses. A total height of gasifier as around 2400mm would be obtained in this case. Besides, by arranging air injecting nozzles at different levels along the reactor, gasification zone could be properly set up according to the particular material is in turn gasified. Finally, since gasification and pyrolysis times were found to considerably change according to even short temperature variations, it could be also envisaged to regulate air feeding rate for each gasified material (which process temperatures depend on), so as the available reactor volumes would be suitable for the complete development of solid conversion in each case, without even changing fluid dynamics behaviour of the unit as well as air/biomass ratio in noticeable measure. The second part of this work dealt with the gas cleaning systems to be adopted downstream the gasifiers in order to run high efficiency CHP units (i.e. internal engines and micro-turbines). Especially in the case multi–fuel gasifiers are assumed to be used, weightier gas cleaning lines need to be envisaged in order to reach the standard gas quality degree required to fuel cogeneration units. Indeed, as the more heterogeneous feed to the gasification unit, several contaminant species can simultaneously be present in the exit gas stream and, as a consequence, suitable gas cleaning systems have to be designed. In this work, an overall study on gas cleaning lines assessment is carried out. Differently from the other research efforts carried out in the same field, the main scope is to define general arrangements for gas cleaning lines suitable to remove several contaminants from the gas stream, independently on the feedstock material and the energy plant size The gas contaminant species taken into account in this analysis were: particulate, tars, sulphur (in H2S form), alkali metals, nitrogen (in NH3 form) and acid gases (in HCl form). For each of these species, alternative cleaning devices were designed according to three different plant sizes, respectively corresponding with 8Nm3/h, 125Nm3/h and 350Nm3/h gas flows. Their performances were examined on the basis of their optimal working conditions (efficiency, temperature and pressure drops, above all) and their own consumption of energy and materials. Successively, the designed units were combined together in different overall gas cleaning line arrangements, paths, by following some technical constraints which were mainly determined from the same performance analysis on the cleaning units and from the presumable synergic effects by contaminants on the right working of some of them (filters clogging, catalysts deactivation, etc.). One of the main issues to be stated in paths design accomplishment was the tars removal from the gas stream, preventing filters plugging and/or line pipes clogging At this scope, a catalytic tars cracking unit was envisaged as the only solution to be adopted, and, therefore, a catalytic material which is able to work at relatively low temperatures was chosen. Nevertheless, a rapid drop in tars cracking efficiency was also estimated for this same material, so that an high frequency of catalysts regeneration and a consequent relevant air consumption for this operation were calculated in all of the cases. Other difficulties had to be overcome in the abatement of alkali metals, which condense at temperatures lower than tars, but they also need to be removed in the first sections of gas cleaning line in order to avoid corrosion of materials. In this case a dry scrubber technology was envisaged, by using the same fine particles filter units and by choosing for them corrosion resistant materials, like ceramic ones. Besides these two solutions which seem to be unavoidable in gas cleaning line design, high temperature gas cleaning lines were not possible to be achieved for the two larger plant sizes, as well. Indeed, as the use of temperature control devices was precluded in the adopted design procedure, ammonia partial oxidation units (as the only considered methods for the abatement of ammonia at high temperature) were not suitable for the large scale units, because of the high increase of reactors temperature by the exothermic reactions involved in the process. In spite of these limitations, yet, overall arrangements for each considered plant size were finally designed, so that the possibility to clean the gas up to the required standard degree was technically demonstrated, even in the case several contaminants are simultaneously present in the gas stream. Moreover, all the possible paths defined for the different plant sizes were compared each others on the basis of some defined operational parameters, among which total pressure drops, total energy losses, number of units and secondary materials consumption. On the basis of this analysis, dry gas cleaning methods proved preferable to the ones including water scrubber technology in al of the cases, especially because of the high water consumption provided by water scrubber units in ammonia adsorption process. This result is yet connected to the possibility to use activated carbon units for ammonia removal and Nahcolite adsorber for chloride acid. The very high efficiency of this latter material is also remarkable. Finally, as an estimation of the overall energy loss pertaining the gas cleaning process, the total enthalpy losses estimated for the three plant sizes were compared with the respective gas streams energy contents, these latter obtained on the basis of low heating value of gas only. This overall study on gas cleaning systems is thus proposed as an analytical tool by which different gas cleaning line configurations can be evaluated, according to the particular practical application they are adopted for and the size of cogeneration unit they are connected to.

Analysis and modeling techniques for ultrasonic tissue characterization

This thesis introduces new processing techniques for computer-aided interpretation of ultrasound images with the purpose of supporting medical diagnostic. In terms of practical application, the goal of this work is the improvement of current prostate biopsy protocols by providing physicians with a visual map overlaid over ultrasound images marking regions potentially affected by disease. As far as analysis techniques are concerned, the main contributions of this work to the state-of-the-art is the introduction of deconvolution as a pre-processing step in the standard ultrasonic tissue characterization procedure to improve the diagnostic significance of ultrasonic features. This thesis also includes some innovations in ultrasound modeling, in particular the employment of a continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) model for ultrasound signals, a new maximum-likelihood CARMA estimator based on exponential splines and the definition of CARMA parameters as new ultrasonic features able to capture scatterers concentration. Finally, concerning the clinical usefulness of the developed techniques, the main contribution of this research is showing, through a study based on medical ground truth, that a reduction in the number of sampled cores in standard prostate biopsy is possible, preserving the same diagnostic power of the current clinical protocol.

Foetal heart rate recording: analysis and comparison of different methodologies

Monitoring foetal health is a very important task in clinical practice to appropriately plan pregnancy management and delivery. In the third trimester of pregnancy, ultrasound cardiotocography is the most employed diagnostic technique: foetal heart rate and uterine contractions signals are simultaneously recorded and analysed in order to ascertain foetal health. Because ultrasound cardiotocography interpretation still lacks of complete reliability, new parameters and methods of interpretation, or alternative methodologies, are necessary to further support physicians’ decisions. To this aim, in this thesis, foetal phonocardiography and electrocardiography are considered as different techniques. Further, variability of foetal heart rate is thoroughly studied. Frequency components and their modifications can be analysed by applying a time-frequency approach, for a distinct understanding of the spectral components and their change over time related to foetal reactions to internal and external stimuli (such as uterine contractions). Such modifications of the power spectrum can be a sign of autonomic nervous system reactions and therefore represent additional, objective information about foetal reactivity and health. However, some limits of ultrasonic cardiotocography still remain, such as in long-term foetal surveillance, which is often recommendable mainly in risky pregnancies. In these cases, the fully non-invasive acoustic recording, foetal phonocardiography, through maternal abdomen, represents a valuable alternative to the ultrasonic cardiotocography. Unfortunately, the so recorded foetal heart sound signal is heavily loaded by noise, thus the determination of the foetal heart rate raises serious signal processing issues. A new algorithm for foetal heart rate estimation from foetal phonocardiographic recordings is presented in this thesis. Different filtering and enhancement techniques, to enhance the first foetal heart sounds, were applied, so that different signal processing techniques were implemented, evaluated and compared, by identifying the strategy characterized on average by the best results. In particular, phonocardiographic signals were recorded simultaneously to ultrasonic cardiotocographic signals in order to compare the two foetal heart rate series (the one estimated by the developed algorithm and the other provided by cardiotocographic device). The algorithm performances were tested on phonocardiographic signals recorded on pregnant women, showing reliable foetal heart rate signals, very close to the ultrasound cardiotocographic recordings, considered as reference. The algorithm was also tested by using a foetal phonocardiographic recording simulator developed and presented in this research thesis. The target was to provide a software for simulating recordings relative to different foetal conditions and recordings situations and to use it as a test tool for comparing and assessing different foetal heart rate extraction algorithms. Since there are few studies about foetal heart sounds time characteristics and frequency content and the available literature is poor and not rigorous in this area, a data collection pilot study was also conducted with the purpose of specifically characterising both foetal and maternal heart sounds. Finally, in this thesis, the use of foetal phonocardiographic and electrocardiographic methodology and their combination, are presented in order to detect foetal heart rate and other functioning anomalies. The developed methodologies, suitable for longer-term assessment, were able to detect heart beat events correctly, such as first and second heart sounds and QRS waves. The detection of such events provides reliable measures of foetal heart rate, potentially information about measurement of the systolic time intervals and foetus circulatory impedance.

Chemical analysis and reactivity of biomass pyrolysis products. Application to the development of carbon-neutral biofuels and chemicals

In this dissertation the pyrolytic conversion of biomass into chemicals and fuels was investigated from the analytical point of view. The study was focused on the liquid (bio-oil) and solid (char) fractions obtainable from biomass pyrolysis. The drawbacks of Py-GC-MS described so far were partially solved by coupling different analytical configurations (Py-GC-MS, Py-GC-MIP-AED and off-line Py-SPE and Py-SPME-GC-MS with derivatization procedures). The application of different techniques allowed a satisfactory comparative analysis of pyrolysis products of different biomass and a high throughput screening on effect of 33 catalysts on biomass pyrolysis. As the results of the screening showed, the most interesting catalysts were those containing copper (able to reduce the high molecular weight fraction of bio-oil without large yield decrease) and H-ZSM-5 (able to entirely convert the bio-oil into “gasoline like” aromatic products). In order to establish the noxious compounds content of the liquid product, a clean-up step was included in the Py-SPE procedure. This allowed to investigate pollutants (PAHs) generation from pyrolysis and catalytic pyrolysis of biomass. In fact, bio-oil from non-catalytic pyrolysis of biomass showed a moderate PAHs content, while the use of H-ZSM-5 catalyst for bio-oil up-grading determined an astonishing high production of PAHs (if compared to what observed in alkanes cracking), indicating an important concern in the substitution fossil fuel with bio-oil derived from biomass. Moreover, the analytical procedures developed in this thesis were directly applied for the detailed study of the most useful process scheme and up-grading route to chemical intermediates (anhydrosugars), transportation fuels or commodity chemicals (aromatic hydrocarbons). In the applied study, poplar and microalgae biomass were investigated and overall GHGs balance of pyrolysis of agricultural residues in Ravenna province was performed. A special attention was put on the comparison of the effect of bio-char different use (fuel or as soil conditioner) on the soil health and GHGs emissions.

Analysis and design of high performance multiphase electric drives for vehicle and aircraft applications

The first part of this thesis has focused on the construction of a twelve-phase asynchronous machine for More Electric Aircraft (MEA) applications. In fact, the aerospace world has found in electrification the way to improve the efficiency, reliability and maintainability of an aircraft. This idea leads to the aircraft a new management and distribution of electrical services. In this way is possible to remove or to reduce the hydraulic, mechanical and pneumatic systems inside the aircraft. The second part of this dissertation is dedicated on the enhancement of the control range of matrix converters (MCs) operating with non-unity input power factor and, at the same time, on the reduction of the switching power losses. The analysis leads to the determination in closed form of a modulation strategy that features a control range, in terms of output voltage and input power factor, that is greater than that of the traditional strategies under the same operating conditions, and a reduction in the switching power losses.