Stima dei parametri di modelli idrologici mediante ottimizzazione dell’utilità

Tradizionalmente, l'obiettivo della calibrazione di un modello afflussi-deflussi è sempre stato quello di ottenere un set di parametri (o una distribuzione di probabilità dei parametri) che massimizzasse l'adattamento dei dati simulati alla realtà osservata, trattando parzialmente le finalità applicative del modello. Nel lavoro di tesi viene proposta una metodologia di calibrazione che trae spunto dell'evidenza che non sempre la corrispondenza tra dati osservati e simulati rappresenti il criterio più appropriato per calibrare un modello idrologico. Ai fini applicativi infatti, può risultare maggiormente utile una miglior rappresentazione di un determinato aspetto dell'idrogramma piuttosto che un altro. Il metodo di calibrazione che viene proposto mira a valutare le prestazioni del modello stimandone l'utilità nell'applicazione prevista. Tramite l'utilizzo di opportune funzioni, ad ogni passo temporale viene valutata l'utilità della simulazione ottenuta. La calibrazione viene quindi eseguita attraverso la massimizzazione di una funzione obiettivo costituita dalla somma delle utilità stimate nei singoli passi temporali. Le analisi mostrano come attraverso l'impiego di tali funzioni obiettivo sia possibile migliorare le prestazioni del modello laddove ritenute di maggior interesse per per le finalità applicative previste.

Social Welfare and Behavioral Public Policies

In this work I discuss several key aspects of welfare economics and policy analysis and I propose two original contributions to the growing field of behavioral public policymaking. After providing a historical perspective of welfare economics and an overview of policy analysis processes in the introductory chapter, in chapter 2 I discuss a debated issue of policymaking, the choice of the social welfare function. I contribute to this debate by proposing an original methodological contribution based on the analysis of the quantitative relationship among different social welfare functional forms commonly used by policy analysts. In chapter 3 I then discuss a behavioral policy to contrast indirect tax evasion based on the use of lotteries. I show that the predictions of my model based on non-expected utility are consistent with observed, and so far unexplained, empirical evidence of the policy success. Finally, in chapter 4 I investigate by mean of a laboratory experiment the effects of social influence on the individual likelihood to engage in altruistic punishment. I show that bystanders’ decision to engage in punishment is influenced by the punishment behavior of their peers and I suggest ways to enact behavioral policies that exploit this finding.

La costruzione razionale della casa. Scritti e progetti di Giuseppe Pagano

The rational construction of the house. The writings and projects of Giuseppe Pagano Description, themes and research objectives The research aims at analysing the architecture of Giuseppe Pagano, which focuses on the theme of dwelling, through the reading of 3 of his house projects. On the one hand, these projects represent “minor” works not thoroughly known by Pagano’s contemporary critics; on the other they emphasise a particular methodological approach, which serves the author to explore a theme closely linked to his theoretical thought. The house project is a key to Pagano’s research, given its ties to the socio-cultural and political conditions in which the architect was working, so that it becomes a mirror of one of his specific and theoretical path, always in a state of becoming. Pagano understands architecture as a “servant of the human being”, subject to a “utilitarian slavery” since it is a clear, essential and “modest” answer to specific human needs, free from aprioristic aesthetic and formal choices. It is a rational architecture in sensu stricto; it constitutes a perfect synthesis between cause and effect and between function and form. The house needs to accommodate these principles because it is closely intertwined with human needs and intimately linked to a specific place, climatic conditions and technical and economical possibilities. Besides, differently from his public and common masterpieces such as the Palazzo Gualino, the Istituto di Fisica and the Università Commerciale Bocconi, the house projects are representative of a precise project will, which is expressed in a more authentic way, partially freed from political influences and dogmatic preoccupations and, therefore, far from the attempt to research a specific expressive language. I believe that the house project better represents that “ingenuity”, freshness and “sincerity” that Pagano identifies with the minor architecture, thereby revealing a more authentic expression of his understanding of a project. Therefore, the thesis, by tracing the theoretical research of Pagano through the analysis of some of his designed and built works, attempts to identify a specific methodological approach to Pagano’s project, which, developed through time, achieves a certain clarity in the 1930s. In fact, this methodological approach becomes more evident in his last projects, mainly regarding the house and the urban space. These reflect the attempt to respond to the new social needs and, at the same time, they also are an expression of a freer idea of built architecture, closely linked with the place and with the human being who dwells it. The three chosen projects (Villa Colli, La Casa a struttura d’acciaio and Villa Caraccio) make Pagano facing different places, different customers and different economic and technical conditions, which, given the author’s biography, correspond to important historical and political conditions. This is the reason why the projects become apparently distant works, both linguistically and conceptually, to the point that one can define them as ”eclectic”. However, I argue that this eclecticism is actually an added value to the architectural work of Pagano, steaming from the use of a method which, having as a basis the postulate of a rational architecture as essence and logic of building, finds specific variations depending on the multiple variables to be addressed by the project. This is the methodological heritage that Pagano learns from the tradition, especially that of the rural residential architecture, defined by Pagano as a “dictionary of the building logic of man”, as an “a-stylistic background”. For Pagano this traditional architecture is a clear expression of the relationships between a theme and its development, an architectural “fact” that is resolved with purely technical and utilitarian aims and with a spontaneous development far from any aprioristic theoretical principle. Architecture, therefore, cannot be an invention for Pagano and the personal contribution of each architect has to consider his/her close relationship with the specific historical context, place and new building methods. These are basic principles in the methodological approach that drives a great deal of his research and that also permits his thought to be modern. I argue that both ongoing and new collaborations with younger protagonists of the culture and architecture of the period are significant for the development of his methodology. These encounters represent the will to spread his own understanding of the “new architecture” as well as a way of self-renewal by confronting the self with new themes and realities and by learning from his collaborators. Thesis’ outline The thesis is divided in two principal parts, each articulated in four chapters attempting to offer a new reading of the theory and work of Pagano by emphasising the central themes of the research. The first chapter is an introduction to the thesis and to the theme of the rational house, as understood and developed in its typological and technical aspects by Pagano and by other protagonists of the Italian rationalism of the 1930s. Here the attention is on two different aspects defining, according to Pagano, the house project: on the one hand, the typological renewal, aimed at defining a “standard form” as a clear and essential answer to certain needs and variables of the project leading to different formal expressions. On the other, it focuses on the building, understood as a technique to “produce” architecture, where new technologies and new materials are not merely tools but also essential elements of the architectural work. In this way the villa becomes different from the theme of the common house or from that of the minimalist house, by using rules in the choice of material and in the techniques that are every time different depending on the theme under exploration and on the contingency of place. It is also visible the rigorous rationalism that distinguishes the author's appropriation of certain themes of rural architecture. The pages of “Casabella” and the events of the contemporary Triennali form the preliminary material for the writing of this chapter given that they are primary sources to individuate projects and writings produced by Pagano and contemporary architects on this theme. These writings and projects, when compared, reconstruct the evolution of the idea of the rational house and, specifically, of the personal research of Pagano. The second part regards the reading of three of Pagano’s projects of houses as a built verification of his theories. This section constitutes the central part of the thesis since it is aimed at detecting a specific methodological approach showing a theoretical and ideological evolution expressed in the vast edited literature. The three projects that have been chosen explore the theme of the house, looking at various research themes that the author proposes and that find continuity in the affirmation of a specific rationalism, focussed on concepts such as essentiality, utility, functionality and building honesty. These concepts guide the thought and the activities of Pagano, also reflecting a social and cultural period. The projects span from the theme of the villa moderna, Villa Colli, which, inspired by the architecture of North Europe, anticipates a specific rationalism of Pagano based on rigour, simplicity and essentiality, to the theme of the common house, Casa a struttura d’acciaio, la casa del domani, which ponders on the definition of new living spaces and, moreover, on new concepts of standardisation, economical efficiency and new materials responding to the changing needs of the modern society. Finally, the third project returns to the theme of the, Villa Caraccio, revisiting it with new perspectives. These perspectives find in the solution of the open plant, in the openness to nature and landscape and in the revisiting of materials and local building systems that idea of the freed house, which express clearly a new theoretical thought. Methodology It needs to be noted that due to the lack of an official Archive of Pagano’s work, the analysis of his work has been difficult and this explains the necessity to read the articles and the drawings published in the pages of «Casabella» and «Domus». As for the projects of Villa Colli and Casa a struttura d’acciaio, parts of the original drawings have been consulted. These drawings are not published and are kept in private archives of the collaborators of Pagano. The consultation of these documents has permitted the analysis of the cited works, which have been subject to a more complete reading following the different proposed solutions, which have permitted to understand the project path. The projects are analysed thought the method of comparison and critical reading which, specifically, means graphical elaborations and analytical schemes, mostly reconstructed on the basis of original projects but, where possible, also on a photographic investigation. The focus is on the project theme which, beginning with a specific living (dwelling) typology, finds variations because of the historico-political context in which Pagano is embedded and which partially shapes his research and theoretical thought, then translated in the built work. The analysis of the work follows, beginning, where possible, from a reconstruction of the evolution of the project as elaborated on the basis of the original documents and ending on an analysis of the constructive principles and composition. This second phase employs a methodology proposed by Pagano in his article Piante di ville, which, as expected, focuses on the plant as essential tool to identify the “true practical and poetic qualities of the construction”(Pagano, «Costruzioni-Casabella», 1940, p. 2). The reading of the project is integrated with the constructive analyses related to the technical aspects of the house which, in the case of Casa a struttura d’acciaio, play an important role in the project, while in Villa Colli and in Villa Caraccio are principally linked to the choice of materials for the construction of the different architectural elements. These are nonetheless key factors in the composition of the work. Future work could extend this reading to other house projects to deepen the research that could be completed with the consultation of Archival materials, which are missing at present. Finally, in the appendix I present a critical selection of the Pagano’s writings, which recall the themes discussed and embodied by the three projects. The texts have been selected among the articles published in Casabella and in other journals, completing the reading of the project work which cannot be detached from his theoretical thought. Moving from theory to project, we follow a path that brings us to define and deepen the central theme of the thesis: rational building as the principal feature of the architectural research of Pagano, which is paraphrased in multiple ways in his designed and built works.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Mitochondrial Genomics: structure, inheritance and phylogenetic utility of the Mitochondrial genome in Bivalvia and Insecta

This PhD Thesis is the result of my research activity in the last three years. My main research interest was centered on the evolution of mitochondrial genome (mtDNA), and on its usefulness as a phylogeographic and phylogenetic marker at different taxonomic levels in different taxa of Metazoa. From a methodological standpoint, my main effort was dedicated to the sequencing of complete mitochondrial genomes, and the approach to whole-genome sequencing was based on the application of Long-PCR and shotgun sequences. Moreover, this research project is a part of a bigger sequencing project of mtDNAs in many different Metazoans’ taxa, and I mostly dedicated myself to sequence and analyze mtDNAs in selected taxa of bivalves and hexapods (Insecta). Sequences of bivalve mtDNAs are particularly limited, and my study contributed to extend the sampling. Moreover, I used the bivalve Musculista senhousia as model taxon to investigate the molecular mechanisms and the evolutionary significance of their aberrant mode of mitochondrial inheritance (Doubly Uniparental Inheritance, see below). In Insects, I focused my attention on the Genus Bacillus (Insecta Phasmida). A detailed phylogenetic analysis was performed in order to assess phylogenetic relationships within the genus, and to investigate the placement of Phasmida in the phylogenetic tree of Insecta. The main goal of this part of my study was to add to the taxonomic coverage of sequenced mtDNAs in basal insects, which were only partially analyzed.