Modelling coupled physical-biogeochemical processes in ice-covered oceans

The last decades have seen a large effort of the scientific community to study and understand the physics of sea ice. We currently have a wide - even though still not exhaustive - knowledge of the sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics and of their temporal and spatial variability. Sea ice biogeochemistry is instead largely unknown. Sea ice algae production may account for up to 25% of overall primary production in ice-covered waters of the Southern Ocean. However, the influence of physical factors, such as the location of ice formation, the role of snow cover and light availability on sea ice primary production is poorly understood. There are only sparse localized observations and little knowledge of the functioning of sea ice biogeochemistry at larger scales. Modelling becomes then an auxiliary tool to help qualifying and quantifying the role of sea ice biogeochemistry in the ocean dynamics. In this thesis, a novel approach is used for the modelling and coupling of sea ice biogeochemistry - and in particular its primary production - to sea ice physics. Previous attempts were based on the coupling of rather complex sea ice physical models to empirical or relatively simple biological or biogeochemical models. The focus is moved here to a more biologically-oriented point of view. A simple, however comprehensive, physical model of the sea ice thermodynamics (ESIM) was developed and coupled to a novel sea ice implementation (BFM-SI) of the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM). The BFM is a comprehensive model, largely used and validated in the open ocean environment and in regional seas. The physical model has been developed having in mind the biogeochemical properties of sea ice and the physical inputs required to model sea ice biogeochemistry. The central concept of the coupling is the modelling of the Biologically-Active-Layer (BAL), which is the time-varying fraction of sea ice that is continuously connected to the ocean via brines pockets and channels and it acts as rich habitat for many microorganisms. The physical model provides the key physical properties of the BAL (e.g., brines volume, temperature and salinity), and the BFM-SI simulates the physiological and ecological response of the biological community to the physical enviroment. The new biogeochemical model is also coupled to the pelagic BFM through the exchange of organic and inorganic matter at the boundaries between the two systems . This is done by computing the entrapment of matter and gases when sea ice grows and release to the ocean when sea ice melts to ensure mass conservation. The model was tested in different ice-covered regions of the world ocean to test the generality of the parameterizations. The focus was particularly on the regions of landfast ice, where primary production is generally large. The implementation of the BFM in sea ice and the coupling structure in General Circulation Models will add a new component to the latters (and in general to Earth System Models), which will be able to provide adequate estimate of the role and importance of sea ice biogeochemistry in the global carbon cycle.

Analysis of urban infrastructure for sustainable mobility through instrumented bicycles for students

In Europe almost 80% of the continent's population lives in cities. It is estimated that by 2030 most regions in Europe which contain major cities will have even more inhabitants on 35–60% more than now. This process generates a consequent elevate human pressure on the natural environment, especially around large urban agglomerations. Cities could be seen as an ecosystem, represented by the dominance of humans that re-distribute organisms and fluxes and represent the result of co-evolving human and natural systems, emerging from the interactions between humans, natural and infrastructures. Roads have a relevant role in building links between urban components, creating the basis on which it is founded the urban ecosystem itself. This thesis is focused on the research for a comprehensive model, framed in European urban health & wellbeing programme, aimed to evaluate the determinants of health in urban populations. Through bicycles, GPS and sensor kits, specially developed and produced by University of Bologna for this purpose, it has been possible to conduct on Bologna different direct observations that oriented the novelty of the research: the categorization of university students cyclists, connection among environmental data awareness and level of cycling, and an early identification of urban attributes able to impact on road air quality and level of cycling. The categorization of university students’ cyclist has been defined through GPS analysis and focused survey, that both permit to identify behavioural and technical variables and attitudes towards urban cycling. The statistic relationship between level of cycling, seen as number of bicycles passages per lane and pollutants level, has been investigated through an inverse regression model, defined and tested through SPSS software on the basis of the data harvest. The research project that represents a sort of dynamic mobility laboratory on two wheels, that permits to harvest and study detected parameters.

Numerical modelling of rock masses interacting with dams: the case of Ridracoli

A three-dimensional Direct Finite Element procedure is here presented which takes into account most of the factors affecting the interaction problem of the dam-water-foundation system, whilst keeping the computational cost at a reasonable level by introducing some simplified hypotheses. A truncated domain is defined, and the dynamic behaviour of the system is treated as a wave-scattering problem where the presence of the dam perturbs an original free-field system. The rock foundation truncated boundaries are enclosed by a set of free-field one-dimensional and two-dimensional systems which transmit the effective forces to the main model and apply adsorbing viscous boundaries to ensure radiation damping. The water domain is treated as an added mass moving with the dam. A strategy is proposed to keep the viscous dampers at the boundaries unloaded during the initial phases of analysis, when the static loads are initialised, and thus avoid spurious displacements. A focus is given to the nonlinear behaviour of the rock foundation, with concentrated plasticity along the natural discontinuities of the rock mass, immersed in an otherwise linear elastic medium with Rayleigh damping. The entire procedure is implemented in the commercial software Abaqus®, whose base code is enriched with specific user subroutines when needed. All the extra coding is attached to the Thesis and tested against analytical results and simple examples. Possible rock wedge instabilities induced by intense ground motion, which are not easily investigated within a comprehensive model of the dam-water-foundation system, are treated separately with a simplified decoupled dynamic approach derived from the classical Newmark method, integrated with FE calculation of dam thrust on the wedges during the earthquake. Both the described approaches are applied to the case study of the Ridracoli arch-gravity dam (Italy) in order to investigate its seismic response to the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) in a full reservoir condition.

The port-Hamiltonian framework as a comprehensive approach to model and simulate complex systems

This thesis describes modelling tools and methods suited for complex systems (systems that typically are represented by a plurality of models). The basic idea is that all models representing the system should be linked by well-defined model operations in order to build a structured repository of information, a hierarchy of models. The port-Hamiltonian framework is a good candidate to solve this kind of problems as it supports the most important model operations natively. The thesis in particular addresses the problem of integrating distributed parameter systems in a model hierarchy, and shows two possible mechanisms to do that: a finite-element discretization in port-Hamiltonian form, and a structure-preserving model order reduction for discretized models obtainable from commercial finite-element packages.

A comprehensive study of the 26th December 2004 Sumatra earthquake: possible implications on Earth rotation and investigations on the coseismic and postseismic stress diffusion associated with the seismic rupture

In this work a multidisciplinary study of the December 26th, 2004 Sumatra earthquake has been carried out. We have investigated both the effect of the earthquake on the Earth rotation and the stress field variations associated with the seismic event. In the first part of the work we have quantified the effects of a water mass redistribution associated with the propagation of a tsunami wave on the Earth’s pole path and on the length-of-day (LOD) and applied our modeling results to the tsunami following the 2004 giant Sumatra earthquake. We compared the result of our simulations on the instantaneous rotational axis variations with some preliminary instrumental evidences on the pole path perturbation (which has not been confirmed yet) registered just after the occurrence of the earthquake, which showed a step-like discontinuity that cannot be attributed to the effect of a seismic dislocation. Our results show that the perturbation induced by the tsunami on the instantaneous rotational pole is characterized by a step-like discontinuity, which is compatible with the observations but its magnitude turns out to be almost one hundred times smaller than the detected one. The LOD variation induced by the water mass redistribution turns out to be not significant because the total effect is smaller than current measurements uncertainties. In the second part of this work of thesis we modeled the coseismic and postseismic stress evolution following the Sumatra earthquake. By means of a semi-analytical, viscoelastic, spherical model of global postseismic deformation and a numerical finite-element approach, we performed an analysis of the stress diffusion following the earthquake in the near and far field of the mainshock source. We evaluated the stress changes due to the Sumatra earthquake by projecting the Coulomb stress over the sequence of aftershocks taken from various catalogues in a time window spanning about two years and finally analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern. The analysis performed with the semi-analytical and the finite-element modeling gives a complex picture of the stress diffusion, in the area under study, after the Sumatra earthquake. We believe that the results obtained with the analytical method suffer heavily for the restrictions imposed, on the hypocentral depths of the aftershocks, in order to obtain the convergence of the harmonic series of the stress components. On the contrary we imposed no constraints on the numerical method so we expect that the results obtained give a more realistic description of the stress variations pattern.

Model reduction of stochastic groundwater flow and transport processes

This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the reduction of analytical or numerical stochastic models characterized by uncertain input parameters or boundary conditions. The technique, based on the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) theory, represents a versatile solution to solve direct or inverse problems related to propagation of uncertainty. The potentiality of the methodology is assessed investigating different applicative contexts related to groundwater flow and transport scenarios, such as global sensitivity analysis, risk analysis and model calibration. This is achieved by implementing a numerical code, developed in the MATLAB environment, presented here in its main features and tested with literature examples. The procedure has been conceived under flexibility and efficiency criteria in order to ensure its adaptability to different fields of engineering; it has been applied to different case studies related to flow and transport in porous media. Each application is associated with innovative elements such as (i) new analytical formulations describing motion and displacement of non-Newtonian fluids in porous media, (ii) application of global sensitivity analysis to a high-complexity numerical model inspired by a real case of risk of radionuclide migration in the subsurface environment, and (iii) development of a novel sensitivity-based strategy for parameter calibration and experiment design in laboratory scale tracer transport.

A New Prediction Model for Slope Stability Analysis

The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.

Comprehensive characterization of SDH-deficient GIST using NGS data and iPSC models

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) are the most common di tumors of the gastrointestinal tract, arising from the interstitial cells of Cajal (ICCs) or their precursors. The vast majority of GISTs (75–85% of GIST) harbor KIT or PDGFRA mutations. A small percentage of GIST (about 10‐15%) do not harbor any of these driver mutations and have historically been called wild-type (WT). Among them, from 20% to 40% show loss of function of the succinate dehydrogenase complex (SDH), also defined as SDH‐deficient GIST. SDH-deficient GISTs display distinctive clinical and pathological features, and can be sporadic or associated with Carney triad or Carney-Stratakis syndrome. These tumors arise most frequently in the stomach with predilection to distal stomach and antrum, have a multi-nodular growth, display a histological epithelioid phenotype, and present frequent lympho-vascular invasion. Occurrence of lymph node metastases and indolent course are representative features of SDH-deficient GISTs. This subset of GIST is known for the immunohistochemical loss of succinate dehydrogenase subunit B (SDHB), which signals the loss of function of the entire SDH-complex. The overall aim of my PhD project consists of the comprehensive characterization of SDH deficient GIST. Throughout the project, clinical, molecular and cellular characterizations were performed using next-generation sequencing technologies (NGS), that has the potential to allow the identification of molecular patterns useful for the diagnosis and development of novel treatments. Moreover, while there are many different cell lines and preclinical models of KIT/PDGFRA mutant GIST, no reliable cell model of SDH-deficient GIST has currently been developed, which could be used for studies on tumor evolution and in vitro assessments of drug response. Therefore, another aim of this project was to develop a pre-clinical model of SDH deficient GIST using the novel technology of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC).

A comprehensive experimental and numerical approach for assessing the hydro-mechanical behaviour of river embankments

In this doctoral dissertation, a comprehensive methodological approach for the assessment of river embankments safety conditions, based on the integrated use of laboratory testing, physical modelling and finite element (FE) numerical simulations, is proposed, with the aim of contributing to a better understanding of the effect of time-dependent hydraulic boundary conditions on the hydro-mechanical response of river embankments. The case study and materials selected for the present research project are representative for the riverbank systems of Alpine and Apennine tributaries of the main river Po (Northern Italy), which have recently experienced various sudden overall collapses. The outcomes of a centrifuge test carried out under the enhanced gravity field of 50-g, on a riverbank model, made of a compacted silty sand mixture, overlying a homogeneous clayey silt foundation layer and subjected to a simulated flood event, have been considered for the definition of a robust and realistic experimental benchmark. In order to reproduce the observed experimental behaviour, a first set of numerical simulations has been carried out by assuming, for both the embankments and the foundation unit, rigid soil porous media, under partially saturated conditions. Mechanical and hydraulic soil properties adopted in the numerical analyses have been carefully estimated based on standard saturated triaxial, oedometer and constant head permeability tests. Afterwards, advanced suction-controlled laboratory tests, have been carried out to investigate the effect of suction and confining stresses on the shear strength and compressibility characteristics of the filling material and a second set of numerical simulations has been run, taking into account the soil parameters updated based on the most recent tests. The final aim of the study is the quantitative estimation of the predictive capabilities of the calibrated numerical tools, by systematically comparing the results of the FE simulations to the experimental benchmark.