Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

Indoor and Outdoor Natural Radioactivity in the Vulsini Volcanic District (Central Italy): Estimation of Doses and Radiological Risks

Terrestrial radioactivity for most individual is the major contributor to the total dose and is mostly provided by 238U, 232Th and 40K radionuclides. In particular indoor radioactivity is principally due to 222Rn, a radioactive noble gas descendent of 238U, second cause of lung cancer after cigarettes smoking. Vulsini Volcanic District is a well known quaternary volcanic area located between the northern Latium and southern Tuscany (Central Italy). It is characterized by an high natural radiation background resulting from the high concentrations of 238U, 232Th and 40K in the volcanic products. In this context, subduction-related metasomatic enrichment of incompatible elements in the mantle source coupled with magma differentiation within the upper crust has given rise to U, Th and K enriched melts. Almost every ancient village and town located in this part of Italy has been built with volcanic rocks pertaining to the Vulsini Volcanic District. The radiological risk of living in this area has been estimated considering separately: a. the risk associated with buildings made of volcanic products and built on volcanic rock substrates b. the risk associated to soil characteristics. The former has been evaluated both using direct 222Rn indoor measurements and simulations of “standard rooms” built with the tuffs and lavas from the Vulsini Volcanic District investigated in this work. The latter has been carried out by using in situ measurements of 222Rn activity in the soil gases. A radon risk map for the Bolsena village has been developed using soil radon measurements integrating geological information. Data of airborne radioactivity in ambient aerosol at two elevated stations in Emilia Romagna (North Italy) under the influence of Fukushima plume have been collected, effective doses have been calculated and an extensive comparison between doses associated with artificial and natural sources in different area have been described and discussed.

Percieved Organizational Efficacy in Internationalized Companies: Application of Competing Values Approach and Collective Efficacy

This dissertation focuses on “organizational efficacy”, in particular on employees’ beliefs of organizational capacity to be efficacious. Organizational efficacy is considered from two perspectives – competing values approach and collective efficacy, and evaluated in internationalized companies. The dissertation is composed of three studies. The data were collected in thirteen Italian companies on different stages of internationalization for a total number of respondents is 358. In the first study the factorial validity of the competing values instrument (Rohrbaugh, 1981) was investigated and confirmed. Two scales were used to measure collective efficacy: a general collective efficacy scale (Bohn, 2010), and a specific collective efficacy scale, developed following suggestions of Borgogni et al. (2001), it evaluates employees’ beliefs of efficacy of organizations in the international market. The findings suggest that competing values and collective organizational efficacy instruments may provide a multi-faceted measurement of employees’ beliefs of organizational efficacy. The second study examined the relationship between organizational efficacy and collective work engagement. To measure collective work engagement the UWES-9 (Schaufeli & Bakker, 2003) was adapted at the group level; its factor structure and reliability were similar to the standard UWES-9. The findings suggest that organizational efficacy fully predicts collective work engagement. Also we investigated whether leadership moderates the relationship between organizational efficacy and collective work engagement. We operationalized leadership style with MLQ (Bass & Avolio, 1995); the results suggest that intellectual stimulation and idealized influence (transformational leadership) and contingent reward (transactional leadership) enhance the impact of organizational efficacy on collective work engagement. In the third study we investigated organizational efficacy and collective work engagement in internationalized companies. The findings show that beliefs of organizational efficacy vary across companies in different stages of internationalization, while no significant difference was found for collective work engagement. Limitations, practical implications and future studies are discussed in the conclusion.