11 resultados para change-point detection

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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Il telerilevamento rappresenta un efficace strumento per il monitoraggio dell’ambiente e del territorio, grazie alla disponibilità di sensori che riprendono con cadenza temporale fissa porzioni della superficie terrestre. Le immagini multi/iperspettrali acquisite sono in grado di fornire informazioni per differenti campi di applicazione. In questo studio è stato affrontato il tema del consumo di suolo che rappresenta un’importante sfida per una corretta gestione del territorio, poiché direttamente connesso con i fenomeni del runoff urbano, della frammentazione ecosistemica e con la sottrazione di importanti territori agricoli. Ancora non esiste una definizione unica, ed anche una metodologia di misura, del consumo di suolo; in questo studio è stato definito come tale quello che provoca impermeabilizzazione del terreno. L’area scelta è quella della Provincia di Bologna che si estende per 3.702 km2 ed è caratterizzata a nord dalla Pianura Padana e a sud dalla catena appenninica; secondo i dati forniti dall’ISTAT, nel periodo 2001-2011 è stata la quarta provincia in Italia con più consumo di suolo. Tramite classificazione pixel-based è stata fatta una mappatura del fenomeno per cinque immagini Landsat. Anche se a media risoluzione, e quindi non in grado di mappare tutti i dettagli, esse sono particolarmente idonee per aree estese come quella scelta ed inoltre garantiscono una più ampia copertura temporale. Il periodo considerato va dal 1987 al 2013 e, tramite procedure di change detection applicate alle mappe prodotte, si è cercato di quantificare il fenomeno, confrontarlo con i dati esistenti e analizzare la sua distribuzione spaziale.

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Recent progress in microelectronic and wireless communications have enabled the development of low cost, low power, multifunctional sensors, which has allowed the birth of new type of networks named wireless sensor networks (WSNs). The main features of such networks are: the nodes can be positioned randomly over a given field with a high density; each node operates both like sensor (for collection of environmental data) as well as transceiver (for transmission of information to the data retrieval); the nodes have limited energy resources. The use of wireless communications and the small size of nodes, make this type of networks suitable for a large number of applications. For example, sensor nodes can be used to monitor a high risk region, as near a volcano; in a hospital they could be used to monitor physical conditions of patients. For each of these possible application scenarios, it is necessary to guarantee a trade-off between energy consumptions and communication reliability. The thesis investigates the use of WSNs in two possible scenarios and for each of them suggests a solution that permits to solve relating problems considering the trade-off introduced. The first scenario considers a network with a high number of nodes deployed in a given geographical area without detailed planning that have to transmit data toward a coordinator node, named sink, that we assume to be located onboard an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). This is a practical example of reachback communication, characterized by the high density of nodes that have to transmit data reliably and efficiently towards a far receiver. It is considered that each node transmits a common shared message directly to the receiver onboard the UAV whenever it receives a broadcast message (triggered for example by the vehicle). We assume that the communication channels between the local nodes and the receiver are subject to fading and noise. The receiver onboard the UAV must be able to fuse the weak and noisy signals in a coherent way to receive the data reliably. It is proposed a cooperative diversity concept as an effective solution to the reachback problem. In particular, it is considered a spread spectrum (SS) transmission scheme in conjunction with a fusion center that can exploit cooperative diversity, without requiring stringent synchronization between nodes. The idea consists of simultaneous transmission of the common message among the nodes and a Rake reception at the fusion center. The proposed solution is mainly motivated by two goals: the necessity to have simple nodes (to this aim we move the computational complexity to the receiver onboard the UAV), and the importance to guarantee high levels of energy efficiency of the network, thus increasing the network lifetime. The proposed scheme is analyzed in order to better understand the effectiveness of the approach presented. The performance metrics considered are both the theoretical limit on the maximum amount of data that can be collected by the receiver, as well as the error probability with a given modulation scheme. Since we deal with a WSN, both of these performance are evaluated taking into consideration the energy efficiency of the network. The second scenario considers the use of a chain network for the detection of fires by using nodes that have a double function of sensors and routers. The first one is relative to the monitoring of a temperature parameter that allows to take a local binary decision of target (fire) absent/present. The second one considers that each node receives a decision made by the previous node of the chain, compares this with that deriving by the observation of the phenomenon, and transmits the final result to the next node. The chain ends at the sink node that transmits the received decision to the user. In this network the goals are to limit throughput in each sensor-to-sensor link and minimize probability of error at the last stage of the chain. This is a typical scenario of distributed detection. To obtain good performance it is necessary to define some fusion rules for each node to summarize local observations and decisions of the previous nodes, to get a final decision that it is transmitted to the next node. WSNs have been studied also under a practical point of view, describing both the main characteristics of IEEE802:15:4 standard and two commercial WSN platforms. By using a commercial WSN platform it is realized an agricultural application that has been tested in a six months on-field experimentation.

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Machines with moving parts give rise to vibrations and consequently noise. The setting up and the status of each machine yield to a peculiar vibration signature. Therefore, a change in the vibration signature, due to a change in the machine state, can be used to detect incipient defects before they become critical. This is the goal of condition monitoring, in which the informations obtained from a machine signature are used in order to detect faults at an early stage. There are a large number of signal processing techniques that can be used in order to extract interesting information from a measured vibration signal. This study seeks to detect rotating machine defects using a range of techniques including synchronous time averaging, Hilbert transform-based demodulation, continuous wavelet transform, Wigner-Ville distribution and spectral correlation density function. The detection and the diagnostic capability of these techniques are discussed and compared on the basis of experimental results concerning gear tooth faults, i.e. fatigue crack at the tooth root and tooth spalls of different sizes, as well as assembly faults in diesel engine. Moreover, the sensitivity to fault severity is assessed by the application of these signal processing techniques to gear tooth faults of different sizes.

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The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

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Until recently the debate on the ontology of spacetime had only a philosophical significance, since, from a physical point of view, General Relativity has been made "immune" to the consequences of the "Hole Argument" simply by reducing the subject to the assertion that solutions of Einstein equations which are mathematically different and related by an active diffeomorfism are physically equivalent. From a technical point of view, the natural reading of the consequences of the "Hole Argument” has always been to go further and say that the mathematical representation of spacetime in General Relativity inevitably contains a “superfluous structure” brought to light by the gauge freedom of the theory. This position of apparent split between the philosophical outcome and the physical one has been corrected thanks to a meticulous and complicated formal analysis of the theory in a fundamental and recent (2006) work by Luca Lusanna and Massimo Pauri entitled “Explaining Leibniz equivalence as difference of non-inertial appearances: dis-solution of the Hole Argument and physical individuation of point-events”. The main result of this article is that of having shown how, from a physical point of view, point-events of Einstein empty spacetime, in a particular class of models considered by them, are literally identifiable with the autonomous degrees of freedom of the gravitational field (the Dirac observables, DO). In the light of philosophical considerations based on realism assumptions of the theories and entities, the two authors then conclude by saying that spacetime point-events have a degree of "weak objectivity", since they, depending on a NIF (non-inertial frame), unlike the points of the homogeneous newtonian space, are plunged in a rich and complex non-local holistic structure provided by the “ontic part” of the metric field. Therefore according to the complex structure of spacetime that General Relativity highlights and within the declared limits of a methodology based on a Galilean scientific representation, we can certainly assert that spacetime has got "elements of reality", but the inevitably relational elements that are in the physical detection of point-events in the vacuum of matter (highlighted by the “ontic part” of the metric field, the DO) are closely dependent on the choice of the global spatiotemporal laboratory where the dynamics is expressed (NIF). According to the two authors, a peculiar kind of structuralism takes shape: the point structuralism, with common features both of the absolutist and substantival tradition and of the relationalist one. The intention of this thesis is that of proposing a method of approaching the problem that is, at least at the beginning, independent from the previous ones, that is to propose an approach based on the possibility of describing the gravitational field at three distinct levels. In other words, keeping the results achieved by the work of Lusanna and Pauri in mind and following their underlying philosophical assumptions, we intend to partially converge to their structuralist approach, but starting from what we believe is the "foundational peculiarity" of General Relativity, which is that characteristic inherent in the elements that constitute its formal structure: its essentially geometric nature as a theory considered regardless of the empirical necessity of the measure theory. Observing the theory of General Relativity from this perspective, we can find a "triple modality" for describing the gravitational field that is essentially based on a geometric interpretation of the spacetime structure. The gravitational field is now "visible" no longer in terms of its autonomous degrees of freedom (the DO), which, in fact, do not have a tensorial and, therefore, nor geometric nature, but it is analyzable through three levels: a first one, called the potential level (which the theory identifies with the components of the metric tensor), a second one, known as the connections level (which in the theory determine the forces acting on the mass and, as such, offer a level of description related to the one that the newtonian gravitation provides in terms of components of the gravitational field) and, finally, a third level, that of the Riemann tensor, which is peculiar to General Relativity only. Focusing from the beginning on what is called the "third level" seems to present immediately a first advantage: to lead directly to a description of spacetime properties in terms of gauge-invariant quantites, which allows to "short circuit" the long path that, in the treatises analyzed, leads to identify the "ontic part” of the metric field. It is then shown how to this last level it is possible to establish a “primitive level of objectivity” of spacetime in terms of the effects that matter exercises in extended domains of spacetime geometrical structure; these effects are described by invariants of the Riemann tensor, in particular of its irreducible part: the Weyl tensor. The convergence towards the affirmation by Lusanna and Pauri that the existence of a holistic, non-local and relational structure from which the properties quantitatively identified of point-events depend (in addition to their own intrinsic detection), even if it is obtained from different considerations, is realized, in our opinion, in the assignment of a crucial role to the degree of curvature of spacetime that is defined by the Weyl tensor even in the case of empty spacetimes (as in the analysis conducted by Lusanna and Pauri). In the end, matter, regarded as the physical counterpart of spacetime curvature, whose expression is the Weyl tensor, changes the value of this tensor even in spacetimes without matter. In this way, going back to the approach of Lusanna and Pauri, it affects the DOs evolution and, consequently, the physical identification of point-events (as our authors claim). In conclusion, we think that it is possible to see the holistic, relational, and non-local structure of spacetime also through the "behavior" of the Weyl tensor in terms of the Riemann tensor. This "behavior" that leads to geometrical effects of curvature is characterized from the beginning by the fact that it concerns extensive domains of the manifold (although it should be pointed out that the values of the Weyl tensor change from point to point) by virtue of the fact that the action of matter elsewhere indefinitely acts. Finally, we think that the characteristic relationality of spacetime structure should be identified in this "primitive level of organization" of spacetime.

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Investigation on impulsive signals, originated from Partial Discharge (PD) phenomena, represents an effective tool for preventing electric failures in High Voltage (HV) and Medium Voltage (MV) systems. The determination of both sensors and instruments bandwidths is the key to achieve meaningful measurements, that is to say, obtaining the maximum Signal-To-Noise Ratio (SNR). The optimum bandwidth depends on the characteristics of the system under test, which can be often represented as a transmission line characterized by signal attenuation and dispersion phenomena. It is therefore necessary to develop both models and techniques which can characterize accurately the PD propagation mechanisms in each system and work out the frequency characteristics of the PD pulses at detection point, in order to design proper sensors able to carry out PD measurement on-line with maximum SNR. Analytical models will be devised in order to predict PD propagation in MV apparatuses. Furthermore, simulation tools will be used where complex geometries make analytical models to be unfeasible. In particular, PD propagation in MV cables, transformers and switchgears will be investigated, taking into account both irradiated and conducted signals associated to PD events, in order to design proper sensors.

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Sperm cells need hexoses as a substrate for their function, for both the maintenance of membrane homeostasis and the movement of the tail. These cells have a peculiar metabolism that has not yet been fully understood, but it is clear that they obtain energy from hexoses through glycolisis and/or oxidative phosphorylation. Spermatozoa are in contact with different external environments, beginning from the testicular and epididymal fluid, passing to the seminal plasma and finally to the female genital tract fluids; in addition, with the spread of reproductive biotechnologies, sperm cells are diluted and stored in various media, containing different energetic substrates. To utilize these energetic sources, sperm cells, as other eukaryotic cells, have a well-constructed protein system, that is mainly represented by the GLUT family proteins. These transporters have a membrane-spanning α-helix structure and work as an enzymatic pump that permit a fast gradient dependent passage of sugar molecules through the lipidic bilayer of sperm membrane. Many GLUTs have been studied in man, bull and rat spermatozoa; the presence of some GLUTs has been also demonstrated in boar and dog spermatozoa. The aims of the present study were - to determine the presence of GLUTs 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in boar, horse, dog and donkey spermatozoa and to describe their localization; - to study eventual changes in GLUTs location after capacitation and acrosome reaction in boar, stallion and dog spermatozoa; - to determine possible changes in GLUTs localization after capacitation induced by insulin and IGF stimulation in boar spermatozoa; - to evaluate changes in GLUTs localization after flow-cytometric sex sorting in boar sperm cells. GLUTs 1, 2, 3 and 5 presence and localization have been demonstrated in boar, stallion, dog and donkey spermatozoa by western blotting and immunofluorescence analysis; a relocation in GLUTs after capacitation has been observed only in dog sperm cells, while no changes have been observed in the other species examined. As for boar, the stimulation of the capacitation with insulin and IGF didn’t cause any change in GLUTs localization, as well as for the flow cytometric sorting procedure. In conclusion, this study confirms the presence of GLUTs 1, 2 ,3 and 5 in boar, dog, stallion and donkey spermatozoa, while GLUT 4 seems to be absent, as a confirmation of other studies. Only in dog sperm cells capacitating conditions induce a change in GLUTs distribution, even if the physiological role of these changes should be deepened.

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Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

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Global warming and climate change have been among the most controversial topics after the industrial revolution. The main contributor to global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2), which increases the temperature by trapping heat in the atmosphere. Atmospheric CO2 concentration before the industrial era was around 280 ppm for a long period, while it has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution up to approximately 420 ppm. According to the Paris agreement it is needed to keep the temperature increase up to 2°C, preferably 1.5° C, to prevent reaching the tipping point of climate change. To keep the temperature increase below the range, it is required to find solutions to reduce CO2 emissions. The solutions can be low-carbon systems and transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources (RES). This thesis is allocated to the assessment of low-carbon systems and the reduction of CO2 by using RES instead of fossil fuels. One of the most important aspects to define the location and capacity of low-carbon systems is CO2 mass estimation. As mentioned, high-emission systems can be substituted by low-carbon systems. An example of high-emission systems is dredging. The global CO2 emission from dredging is relatively high which is associated with the growth of marine transport in addition to its high emission. Thus, ejectors system as alternative for dredging is investigated in chapter 2. For the transition from fossil fuels to RES, it is required to provide solutions for the RES storage problem. A solution could be zero-emission fuels such as hydrogen. However, the production of hydrogen requires electricity, and electricity production emits a large amount of CO2. Therefore, the last three chapters are allocated to hydrogen generation via electrolysis, at the current condition and scenarios of RES and variation of cell characteristics and stack materials, and its delivery.

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The weight-transfer effect, consisting of the change in dynamic load distribution between the front and the rear tractor axles, is one of the most impairing phenomena for the performance, comfort, and safety of agricultural operations. Excessive weight transfer from the front to the rear tractor axle can occur during operation or maneuvering of implements connected to the tractor through the three-point hitch (TPH). In this respect, an optimal design of the TPH can ensure better dynamic load distribution and ultimately improve operational performance, comfort, and safety. In this study, a computational design tool (The Optimizer) for the determination of a TPH geometry that minimizes the weight-transfer effect is developed. The Optimizer is based on a constrained minimization algorithm. The objective function to be minimized is related to the tractor front-to-rear axle load transfer during a simulated reference maneuver performed with a reference implement on a reference soil. Simulations are based on a 3-degrees-of-freedom (DOF) dynamic model of the tractor-TPH-implement aggregate. The inertial, elastic, and viscous parameters of the dynamic model were successfully determined through a parameter identification algorithm. The geometry determined by the Optimizer complies with the ISO-730 Standard functional requirements and other design requirements. The interaction between the soil and the implement during the simulated reference maneuver was successfully validated against experimental data. Simulation results show that the adopted reference maneuver is effective in triggering the weight-transfer effect, with the front axle load exhibiting a peak-to-peak value of 27.1 kN during the maneuver. A benchmark test was conducted starting from four geometries of a commercially available TPH. As result, all the configurations were optimized by above 10%. The Optimizer, after 36 iterations, was able to find an optimized TPH geometry which allows to reduce the weight-transfer effect by 14.9%.

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Background and Aim: Acute cardiac rejection is currently diagnosed by endomyocardial biopsy (EMB), but multiparametric cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) may be a non-invasive alternative by its capacity for myocardial structure and function characterization. Our primary aim was to determine the utility of multiparametric CMR in identifying acute graft rejection in paediatric heart transplant recipients. The second aim was to compare textural features of parametric maps in cases of rejection versus those without rejection. Methods: Fifteen patients were prospectively enrolled for contrast-enhanced CMR followed by EMB and right heart catheterization. Images were acquired on a 1,5 Tesla scanner including T1 mapping (modified Look-Locker inversion recovery sequence – MOLLI) and T2 mapping (modified GraSE sequence). The extracellular volume (ECV) was calculated using pre- and post-gadolinium T1 times of blood and myocardium and the patient’s hematocrit. Markers of graft dysfunction including hemodynamic measurements from echocardiography, catheterization and CMR were collated. Patients were divided into two groups based on degree of rejection at EMB: no rejection with no change in treatment (Group A) and acute rejection requiring new therapy (Group B). Statistical analysis included student’t t test and Pearson correlation. Results: Acute rejection was diagnosed in five patients. Mean T1 values were significantly associated with acute rejection. A monotonic, increasing trend was noted in both mean and peak T1 values, with increasing degree of rejection. ECV was significantly higher in Group B. There was no difference in T2 signal between two groups. Conclusion: Multiparametric CMR serves as a noninvasive screening tool during surveillance encounters and may be used to identify those patients that may be at higher risk of rejection and therefore require further evaluation. Future and multicenter studies are necessary to confirm these results and explore whether multiparametric CMR can decrease the number of surveillance EMBs in paediatric heart transplant recipients.