Customer Evolution in Sales Channel Migration

This research has been triggered by an emergent trend in customer behavior: customers have rapidly expanded their channel experiences and preferences beyond traditional channels (such as stores) and they expect the company with which they do business to have a presence on all these channels. This evidence has produced an increasing interest in multichannel customer behavior and it has motivated several researchers to study the customers’ channel choices dynamics in multichannel environment. We study how the consumer decision process for channel choice and response to marketing communications evolves for a cohort of new customers. We assume a newly acquired customer’s decisions are described by a “trial” model, but the customer’s choice process evolves to a “post-trial” model as the customer learns his or her preferences and becomes familiar with the firm’s marketing efforts. The trial and post-trial decision processes are each described by different multinomial logit choice models, and the evolution from the trial to post-trial model is determined by a customer-level geometric distribution that captures the time it takes for the customer to make the transition. We utilize data for a major retailer who sells in three channels – retail store, the Internet, and via catalog. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods that allow for cross-customer heterogeneity. This allows us to have distinct parameters estimates for a trial and an after trial stages and to estimate the quickness of this transit at the individual level. The results show for example that the customer decision process indeed does evolve over time. Customers differ in the duration of the trial period and marketing has a different impact on channel choice in the trial and post-trial stages. Furthermore, we show that some people switch channel decision processes while others don’t and we found that several factors have an impact on the probability to switch decision process. Insights from this study can help managers tailor their marketing communication strategy as customers gain channel choice experience. Managers may also have insights on the timing of the direct marketing communications. They can predict the duration of the trial phase at individual level detecting the customers with a quick, long or even absent trial phase. They can even predict if the customer will change or not his decision process over time, and they can influence the switching process using specific marketing tools

A universal delta model

This thesis presents a universal model of documents and deltas. This model formalize what it means to find differences between documents and to shows a single shared formalization that can be used by any algorithm to describe the differences found between any kind of comparable documents. The main scientific contribution of this thesis is a universal delta model that can be used to represent the changes found by an algorithm. The main part of this model are the formal definition of changes (the pieces of information that records that something has changed), operations (the definitions of the kind of change that happened) and deltas (coherent summaries of what has changed between two documents). The fundamental mechanism tha makes the universal delta model a very expressive tool is the use of encapsulation relations between changes. In the universal delta model, changes are not always simple records of what has changed, they can also be combined into more complex changes that reflects the detection of more meaningful modifications. In addition to the main entities (i.e., changes, operations and deltas), the model describes and defines also documents and the concept of equivalence between documents. As a corollary to the model, there is also an extensible catalog of possible operations that algorithms can detect, used to create a common library of operations, and an UML serialization of the model, useful as a reference when implementing APIs that deal with deltas. The universal delta model presented in this thesis acts as the formal groundwork upon which algorithm can be based and libraries can be implemented. It removes the need to recreate a new delta model and terminology whenever a new algorithm is devised. It also alleviates the problems that toolmakers have when adapting their software to new diff algorithms.

Non-thermal emission in High Frequency Peaked blazars towards the Square Kilometer Array era

In this thesis work we will explore and discuss the properties of the gamma-ray sources included in the first Fermi-LAT catalog of sources above 10 GeV (1FHL), by considering both blazars and the non negligible fraction of still unassociated gamma-ray sources (UGS, 13%). We perform a statistical analysis of a complete sample of hard gamma-ray sources, included in the 1FHL catalog, mostly composed of HSP blazars, and we present new VLBI observations of the faintest members of the sample. The new VLBI data, complemented by an extensive search of the archives for brighter sources, are essential to gather a sample as large as possible for the assessment of the significance of the correlation between radio and very high energy (E>100 GeV) emission bands. After the characterization of the statistical properties of HSP blazars and UGS, we use a complementary approach, by focusing on an intensive multi-frequency observing VLBI and gamma-ray campaign carried out for one of the most remarkable and closest HSP blazar Markarian 421.

Black Hole and Galaxy Growth over Cosmic Time: the Chandra COSMOS Legacy Survey

The study of supermassive black hole (SMBH) accretion during their phase of activity (hence becoming active galactic nuclei, AGN), and its relation to the host-galaxy growth, requires large datasets of AGN, including a significant fraction of obscured sources. X-ray data are strategic in AGN selection, because at X-ray energies the contamination from non-active galaxies is far less significant than in optical/infrared surveys, and the selection of obscured AGN, including also a fraction of heavily obscured AGN, is much more effective. In this thesis, I present the results of the Chandra COSMOS Legacy survey, a 4.6 Ms X-ray survey covering the equatorial COSMOS area. The COSMOS Legacy depth (flux limit f=2x10^(-16) erg/s/cm^(-2) in the 0.5-2 keV band) is significantly better than that of other X-ray surveys on similar area, and represents the path for surveys with future facilities, like Athena and X-ray Surveyor. The final Chandra COSMOS Legacy catalog contains 4016 point-like sources, 97% of which with redshift. 65% of the sources are optically obscured and potentially caught in the phase of main BH growth. We used the sample of 174 Chandra COSMOS Legacy at z>3 to place constraints on the BH formation scenario. We found a significant disagreement between our space density and the predictions of a physical model of AGN activation through major-merger. This suggests that in our luminosity range the BH triggering through secular accretion is likely preferred to a major-merger triggering scenario. Thanks to its large statistics, the Chandra COSMOS Legacy dataset, combined with the other multiwavelength COSMOS catalogs, will be used to answer questions related to a large number of astrophysical topics, with particular focus on the SMBH accretion in different luminosity and redshift regimes.