4 resultados para casuality testing in VaRs with bootstrapping

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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The quality of astronomical sites is the first step to be considered to have the best performances from the telescopes. In particular, the efficiency of large telescopes in UV, IR, radio etc. is critically dependent on atmospheric transparency. It is well known that the random optical effects induced on the light propagation by turbulent atmosphere also limit telescope’s performances. Nowadays, clear appears the importance to correlate the main atmospheric physical parameters with the optical quality reachable by large aperture telescopes. The sky quality evaluation improved with the introduction of new techniques, new instrumentations and with the understanding of the link between the meteorological (or synoptical parameters and the observational conditions thanks to the application of the theories of electromagnetic waves propagation in turbulent medias: what we actually call astroclimatology. At the present the site campaigns are evolved and are performed using the classical scheme of optical seeing properties, meteorological parameters, sky transparency, sky darkness and cloudiness. New concept are added and are related to the geophysical properties such as seismicity, microseismicity, local variability of the climate, atmospheric conditions related to the ground optical turbulence and ground wind regimes, aerosol presence, use of satellite data. The purpose of this project is to provide reliable methods to analyze the atmospheric properties that affect ground-based optical astronomical observations and to correlate them with the main atmospheric parameters generating turbulence and affecting the photometric accuracy. The first part of the research concerns the analysis and interpretation of longand short-time scale meteorological data at two of the most important astronomical sites located in very different environments: the Paranal Observatory in the Atacama Desert (Chile), and the Observatorio del Roque de Los Muchachos(ORM) located in La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain). The optical properties of airborne dust at ORM have been investigated collecting outdoor data using a ground-based dust monitor. Because of its dryness, Paranal is a suitable observatory for near-IR observations, thus the extinction properties in the spectral range 1.00-2.30 um have been investigated using an empirical method. Furthermore, this PhD research has been developed using several turbulence profilers in the selection of the site for the European Extremely Large Telescope(E-ELT). During the campaigns the properties of the turbulence at different heights at Paranal and in the sites located in northern Chile and Argentina have been studied. This given the possibility to characterize the surface layer turbulence at Paranal and its connection with local meteorological conditions.

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The Székesfehérvár Ruin Garden is a unique assemblage of monuments belonging to the cultural heritage of Hungary due to its important role in the Middle Ages as the coronation and burial church of the Kings of the Hungarian Christian Kingdom. It has been nominated for “National Monument” and as a consequence, its protection in the present and future is required. Moreover, it was reconstructed and expanded several times throughout Hungarian history. By a quick overview of the current state of the monument, the presence of several lithotypes can be found among the remained building and decorative stones. Therefore, the research related to the materials is crucial not only for the conservation of that specific monument but also for other historic structures in Central Europe. The current research is divided in three main parts: i) description of lithologies and their provenance, ii) physical properties testing of historic material and iii) durability tests of analogous stones obtained from active quarries. The survey of the National Monument of Székesfehérvár, focuses on the historical importance and the architecture of the monument, the different construction periods, the identification of the different building stones and their distribution in the remaining parts of the monument and it also included provenance analyses. The second one was the in situ and laboratory testing of physical properties of historic material. As a final phase samples were taken from local quarries with similar physical and mineralogical characteristics to the ones used in the monument. The three studied lithologies are: fine oolitic limestone, a coarse oolitic limestone and a red compact limestone. These stones were used for rock mechanical and durability tests under laboratory conditions. The following techniques were used: a) in-situ: Schmidt Hammer Values, moisture content measurements, DRMS, mapping (construction ages, lithotypes, weathering forms) b) laboratory: petrographic analysis, XRD, determination of real density by means of helium pycnometer and bulk density by means of mercury pycnometer, pore size distribution by mercury intrusion porosimetry and by nitrogen adsorption, water absorption, determination of open porosity, DRMS, frost resistance, ultrasonic pulse velocity test, uniaxial compressive strength test and dynamic modulus of elasticity. The results show that initial uniaxial compressive strength is not necessarily a clear indicator of the stone durability. Bedding and other lithological heterogeneities can influence the strength and durability of individual specimens. In addition, long-term behaviour is influenced by exposure conditions, fabric and, especially, the pore size distribution of each sample. Therefore, a statistic evaluation of the results is highly recommended and they should be evaluated in combination with other investigations on internal structure and micro-scale heterogeneities of the material, such as petrographic observation, ultrasound pulse velocity and porosimetry. Laboratory tests used to estimate the durability of natural stone may give a good guidance to its short-term performance but they should not be taken as an ultimate indication of the long-term behaviour of the stone. The interdisciplinary study of the results confirms that stones in the monument show deterioration in terms of mineralogy, fabric and physical properties in comparison with quarried stones. Moreover stone-testing proves compatibility between quarried and historical stones. Good correlation is observed between the non-destructive-techniques and laboratory tests results which allow us to minimize sampling and assessing the condition of the materials. Concluding, this research can contribute to the diagnostic knowledge for further studies that are needed in order to evaluate the effect of recent and future protective measures.

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The objective of this study was to evaluate right ventricular function in patients with right ventricular volume overload in patients with (tetralogy of Fallot, and pulmonary atresia + VSD ) underwent corrective surgery; with echocardiography measure that can be easily applied; and to study the relationship between ProBNP and the contractile function of the right ventricle, dilated right atrium, and the consequences of pulmonary insufficiency . Methods: The study included 50 patients (50% males, mean age 30.64 ± 13.30 years) with prior cardiac surgical intervention of TDF (90%) or pulmonary atresia + VSD (10%). (49 pz) have performed a cardiac MRI and clinical evaluation, (47 pz) echocardiogram, (48 pz) ECG, (34 pz) a cardiopulmonary exercise testing, (29 pz) a dosage of ProBNP. Results: The S-wave velocity (p <0.0001), the TAPSE (p <0.0001) correlated significantly with RVEF estimated by cardiac MRI. The VO2 max was 27.93 ± 12.91 ml / kg / min, 15% of patients had VE/VCO2 The peak> 35. ProBNP correlated positively and significantly with the area of the right atrium (p = 0.0001), and negative and significant with VO2 max (p = 0.04). Those who have increased pulmonary insufficiency (PVR fraction> 30%) have a significantly increased RVED volume (p = 0.01), reduced VO2 max (p = 0.04), and lower ejection fraction of LV (p = 0.02) than the group of patients with PVR ≤ 30. Conclusion: The TAPSE and S-wave velocity are fundamental and may become the technique of choice for routine assessment of RV systolic function in adult patients with TOF. The monitoring of the Pro BNP is probably a choice, given the simplicity and their information that correlate with the test cardiopulmonary. In view of the ventricular-ventricular interaction, so measures to maintain or restore the functioning of the pulmonary valve could preserve biventricular function.

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Introduction: Anti-TNF-alfa therapy has been effective in the treatment of patients with refractory psoriasis and psoriasic arthritis. However, the risk of developing autoantibodies in these patients undergoing this therapy is not clear. Objective: To evaluate the induction of specific autoantibodies after anti-TNFα therapy in patients with psoriasis and psoriasic arthritis and, to evaluate the influence of the use of methotrexate on the values of autoantibodies developed during this therapy. Patients and methods: Serum samples from 120 patients, obtained before(baseline) the introduction of anti-TNF-alpha therapy and approximately each 3-6 months during the therapy.O f these 120 patients, 113 were found negative for autoantibodies before starting anti -TNFalpha therapy, 7 were found positive for ANA. The analysis included detection of antinuclear antibodies (ANA) and anti-dsDNA antibodies (indirect immunofluorescence on Hep-2 cells and Crithidia luciliae, respectively); anti extractable nuclear antigens antibodies( ENA)(ELISA). RESULTS: Infliximab is associated with the highest occurrence rate of ANA, anti-dsDNA, ENA with approximately 69,2%, 11,5%, 7,6% of patients treated testing positive. In comparison, only 20%, 6,6%, 2,2% of patients treated with Adalimumab, and 19%, 2,3%, 2,3% of patients treated with Etanercept were positive for ANA, Anti-dsDNA, ENA respectively. As regard the seven patients who were positive at baseline, six of them (85.7%) in addition to being remained positive during the therapy they have also increased the autoantibodies ’s titers. Conclusion: our study have shown that Infliximab is associated with the highest rate of autoantibodies. The concomitant treatment with methotrexate did not modify the titers of autoantibodies developed during the therapy anti-TNFalph. The incidence of ANA, anti-dsDNA antibodies did not correlate with development of Lupus-like syndromes. The difference in the frequency of autoantibodies between psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis was not statistically significant (p = 0.867).