Seizure prediction and control in epilepsy

The first part of my thesis presents an overview of the different approaches used in the past two decades in the attempt to forecast epileptic seizure on the basis of intracranial and scalp EEG. Past research could reveal some value of linear and nonlinear algorithms to detect EEG features changing over different phases of the epileptic cycle. However, their exact value for seizure prediction, in terms of sensitivity and specificity, is still discussed and has to be evaluated. In particular, the monitored EEG features may fluctuate with the vigilance state and lead to false alarms. Recently, such a dependency on vigilance states has been reported for some seizure prediction methods, suggesting a reduced reliability. An additional factor limiting application and validation of most seizure-prediction techniques is their computational load. For the first time, the reliability of permutation entropy [PE] was verified in seizure prediction on scalp EEG data, contemporarily controlling for its dependency on different vigilance states. PE was recently introduced as an extremely fast and robust complexity measure for chaotic time series and thus suitable for online application even in portable systems. The capability of PE to distinguish between preictal and interictal state has been demonstrated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. Correlation analysis was used to assess dependency of PE on vigilance states. Scalp EEG-Data from two right temporal epileptic lobe (RTLE) patients and from one patient with right frontal lobe epilepsy were analysed. The last patient was included only in the correlation analysis, since no datasets including seizures have been available for him. The ROC analysis showed a good separability of interictal and preictal phases for both RTLE patients, suggesting that PE could be sensitive to EEG modifications, not visible on visual inspection, that might occur well in advance respect to the EEG and clinical onset of seizures. However, the simultaneous assessment of the changes in vigilance showed that: a) all seizures occurred in association with the transition of vigilance states; b) PE was sensitive in detecting different vigilance states, independently of seizure occurrences. Due to the limitations of the datasets, these results cannot rule out the capability of PE to detect preictal states. However, the good separability between pre- and interictal phases might depend exclusively on the coincidence of epileptic seizure onset with a transition from a state of low vigilance to a state of increased vigilance. The finding of a dependency of PE on vigilance state is an original finding, not reported in literature, and suggesting the possibility to classify vigilance states by means of PE in an authomatic and objectic way. The second part of my thesis provides the description of a novel behavioral task based on motor imagery skills, firstly introduced (Bruzzo et al. 2007), in order to study mental simulation of biological and non-biological movement in paranoid schizophrenics (PS). Immediately after the presentation of a real movement, participants had to imagine or re-enact the very same movement. By key release and key press respectively, participants had to indicate when they started and ended the mental simulation or the re-enactment, making it feasible to measure the duration of the simulated or re-enacted movements. The proportional error between duration of the re-enacted/simulated movement and the template movement were compared between different conditions, as well as between PS and healthy subjects. Results revealed a double dissociation between the mechanisms of mental simulation involved in biological and non-biologial movement simulation. While for PS were found large errors for simulation of biological movements, while being more acurate than healthy subjects during simulation of non-biological movements. Healthy subjects showed the opposite relationship, making errors during simulation of non-biological movements, but being most accurate during simulation of non-biological movements. However, the good timing precision during re-enactment of the movements in all conditions and in both groups of participants suggests that perception, memory and attention, as well as motor control processes were not affected. Based upon a long history of literature reporting the existence of psychotic episodes in epileptic patients, a longitudinal study, using a slightly modified behavioral paradigm, was carried out with two RTLE patients, one patient with idiopathic generalized epilepsy and one patient with extratemporal lobe epilepsy. Results provide strong evidence for a possibility to predict upcoming seizures in RTLE patients behaviorally. In the last part of the thesis it has been validated a behavioural strategy based on neurobiofeedback training, to voluntarily control seizures and to reduce there frequency. Three epileptic patients were included in this study. The biofeedback was based on monitoring of slow cortical potentials (SCPs) extracted online from scalp EEG. Patients were trained to produce positive shifts of SCPs. After a training phase patients were monitored for 6 months in order to validate the ability of the learned strategy to reduce seizure frequency. Two of the three refractory epileptic patients recruited for this study showed improvements in self-management and reduction of ictal episodes, even six months after the last training session.

Portfolio optimization in the energy market

Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of an energy company. Our fleet of electricity production plants mainly includes gas, hydroelectric and waste-to-energy plants. We also sold contracts for the supply of gas and electricity. For each year we have to plan the trading of the volumes needed by the plants and customers: better to fix the price of these volumes in advance with the so-called forward contracts, instead of waiting for the delivery months, exposing ourselves to price uncertainty. Here’s the thing: trying to keep uncertainty under control in a market that has never shown such extreme scenarios as in recent years: a pandemic, a worsening climate crisis and a war that is affecting economies around the world have made the energy market more volatile than ever. How to make decisions in such uncertain contexts? There is an optimization problem: given a year, we need to choose the optimal planning of volume trading times, to meet the needs of our portfolio at the best prices, taking into account the liquidity constraints given by the market and the risk constraints imposed by the company. Algorithms are needed for the generation of market scenarios over a finite time horizon, that is, a probabilistic distribution that allows a view of all the dates between now and the end of the year of interest. Algorithms are needed to solve the optimization problem: we have proposed more than one and compared them; a very simple one, which avoids considering part of the complexity, moving on to a scenario approach and finally a reinforcement learning approach.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

L'interpretazione del contratto internazionale

La ricerca ha ad oggetto l’analisi di clausole, contenute nei contratti del commercio internazionale, che sembrano finalizzate a fornire in anticipo una metodologia dell’interpretazione del contratto. L’elaborato pertanto analizza i profili di validità ed efficacia di singole e specifiche clausole, come le “clausole d’intero accordo”, le “clausole di non modificazione orale”, le clausole contenenti definizioni, e simili, alla luce delle regole giudiriche di derivazione eteronoma applicabili al contratto, siano esse rappresentate da una legge nazionale, da una convenzione internazionale di diritto materiale uniforme, o da fonti ulteriori c.d. di soft law, come i Principi Unidroit sui contratti del commercio internazionale. La ricerca ha pertanto rivelato che, diversamente da quanto possa apparire a prima vista, svariate tipologie di clausole analizzate non coinvolgono profili legati all'’nterpretazione del contratto, quanto piuttosto di documentazione e forma dello stesso. L’elaborato contiene infine alcune considerazioni di teoria generale del diritto.

Sicurezza dei prodotti alimentari e la responsabilità civile nell'Unione europea e negli Stati Uniti: tecniche a confronto

Le profonde trasformazioni che hanno interessato l’industria alimentare, unitamente alle accresciute capacità delle scienze mediche ed epidemiologiche di individuare nessi causali tra il consumo di determinate sostanze e l’insorgere di patologie, hanno imposto al legislatore di intervenire nella materia della c.d. sicurezza alimentare mettendo in atto sistemi articolati e complessi tesi a tutelare la salute dei consociati. Quest’ultimo obiettivo viene perseguito, da un lato, mediante disposizioni di natura pubblicistica e di carattere preventivo e, dall’altro lato, dallo strumento della responsabilità civile. Le due prospettive di tutela della salute delle persone costituiscono parti distinte ma al tempo stesso fortemente integrate in una logica unitaria. Questa prospettiva emerge chiaramente nel sistema statunitense: in quel ordinamento la disciplina pubblicistica della sicurezza degli alimenti – definita dalla Food and Drug Administration – costituisce un punto di riferimento imprescindibile anche quando si tratta di stabilire se un prodotto alimentare è difettoso e se, di conseguenza, il produttore è chiamato a risarcire i danni che scaturiscono dal suo utilizzo. L’efficace sinergia che si instaura tra la dimensione pubblicistica del c.d. Public Enforcement e quella risarcitoria (Private Enforcement) viene ulteriormente valorizzata dalla presenza di efficaci strumenti di tutela collettiva tra i quali la class action assume una importanza fondamentale. Proprio muovendo dall’analisi del sistema statunitense, l’indagine si appunta in un primo momento sull’individuazione delle lacune e delle criticità che caratterizzano il sistema nazionale e, più in generale quello comunitario. In un secondo momento l’attenzione si focalizza sull’individuazione di soluzioni interpretative e de iure condendo che, anche ispirandosi agli strumenti di tutela propri del diritto statunitense, contribuiscano a rendere maggiormente efficace la sinergia tra regole preventive sulla sicurezza alimentare e regole risarcitorie in materia di responsabilità del produttore.

I mercati di crescita per le PMI

La tesi studia ed approfondisce la disciplina dei mercati di crescita per le PMI, indagando il regime normativo delle società ivi quotate. Considerata la struttura composita dell’architettura regolamentare (direttive e regolamenti europei, fonti primarie nazionali e regolamento del mercato) l’indagine adotta una prospettiva olistica sulla regolamentazione, al fine di individuare principii comuni e risolevere dubbi interpretativi. Inoltre, l’approfondimento in chiave storica e di economia politica, volto a ricostruire le ragioni per l’introduzione dei mercati di crescita e gli obiettivi perseguiti dal legislatore europeo, permette di identificare le rationes sottostanti alle disposizioni e di facilitarne l’interpretazione. Il primo capitolo approfondisce l’evoluzione storica e istituzionale dei mercati di crescita per le PMI e gli obiettivi che il legislatore europeo si prefigge di raggiungere. Il secondo capitolo affronta invece il processo di registrazione dei sistemi multilaterali di negoziazione come mercati di crescita. Il capitolo indaga quali siano i requisiti affinché un sistema multilaterale possa essere registrato come mercato di crescita, come si svolga il processo di registrazione e quale sia il ruolo dell’autorità di vigilanza. Il terzo capitolo approfondisce quali siano le disposizioni di diritto societario applicabili agli emittenti quotati sui mercati di crescita. Infatti, mentre la disciplina per gli emittenti quotati sui mercati regolamentati non è direttamente applicabile a queste società, non si può neppure escludere in via preliminare che determinate disposizioni non siano applicabili in via analogica, a causa delle specifiche caratteristiche conferite a questi emittenti ed ai titoli ammessi alla negoziazione dalla quotazione. Il quarto capitolo analizza diverse disposizioni relative all’informazione, intesa in senso ampio. Infine, il quinto capitolo affronta la disciplina dell’o.p.a. obbligatoria prevista dal regolamento del mercato di crescita AIM Italia.

La prevenzione e la risoluzione dei conflitti di giurisdizione nello Spazio di libertà, sicurezza e giustizia.

L’elaborato ha ad oggetto lo studio della tematica inerente alla prevenzione e alla risoluzione dei conflitti di giurisdizione tra autorità giudiziarie appartenenti a Paesi membri dell’Unione europea, in presenza di un reato caratterizzato da elementi di transnazionalità. In questi casi è necessario elaborare alcuni canoni idonei a individuare per tempo l’autorità giudiziaria competente a condurre l’attività di accertamento. Tale esigenza sorge a causa della lacunosità ed insufficienza dell’attuale normativa (Decisione quadro 2009/948/GAI) sotto molteplici profili: il riferimento è tanto alla carenza di tassatività e cogenza dei criteri necessari a radicare la giurisdizione in un determinato Stato, quanto all’irrilevanza, nelle dinamiche inerenti alla scelta del foro, dei diritti di difesa dell’indagato. In questa prospettiva, occorre dunque trovare un punto di equilibrio tra le istanze repressive e quelle di tutela dei diritti fondamentali: detto altrimenti, l’esigenza di evitare di prevenire “zone franche” nello Spazio di libertà, sicurezza e giustizia – anche alla luce della libertà di movimento dei soggetti e dunque dei criminali – non può comportare la lesione della sfera giuridica del cittadino europeo. Il presente lavoro di ricerca, sulla scorta dell'analisi tanto dei principi quanto delle regole attualmente vigenti, si pone l'obiettivo di individuare delle guidelines in linea con il portato garantistico della Carta dei diritti fondamentali dell'Unione europea ed efficaci per assolvere il mandato presente all’art. 82, § 1, lett. b) TFUE: ossia di prevenire e risolvere i conflitti di giurisdizione.

Design, development and guidance of the Airborne’s quadrotor

The main goal of the Airborne project is to develop, at technology readiness level 8 (TRL8), a few selected robotic aerial technologies for quick localization of victims by avalanches by equipping drones with two forefront sensors used in SAR operations in case of avalanches, namely the ARVA and RECCO. This thesis focuses on the design, development, and guidance of the TRL8 quadrotor developed during the project. We present and describe the design method that allowed us to obtain an EMI shielded UAV capable of integrating both RECCO and ARVA sensors. Besides, is presented the avionics and power train design and building procedure in order to obtain a modular UAV frame that can be easily carried by rescuers and achieves all the performance benchmarks of the project. Additionally, in addition to the onboard algorithms, a multivariate regressive convolutional neural network whose goal is the localization of the ARVA signal is presented. On guidance, the automatic flight procedure is described, and the onboard waypoint generator algorithm is presented. The goal of this algorithm is the generation and execution of an automatic grid pattern without the need to know the map in advance and without the support of a control ground station (CGS). Moreover, we present an iterative trajectory planner that does not need pre-knowledge of the map and uses Bézier curves to address optimal, dynamically feasible, safe, and re-plannable trajectories. The goal is to develop a method that allows local and fast replannings in case of an obstacle pop up or if some waypoints change. This makes the novel planner suitable to be applied in SAR operations. The introduction of the final version of the quadrotor is supported by internal flight tests and field tests performed in real operative scenarios by the Club Alpino Italiano (CAI).