7 resultados para budget estimate

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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The aim of my dissertation is to study the gender wage gap with a specific focus on developing and transition countries. In the first chapter I present the main existing theories proposed to analyse the gender wage gap and I review the empirical literature on the gender wage gap in developing and transition countries and its main findings. Then, I discuss the overall empirical issues related to the estimation of the gender wage gap and the issues specific to developing and transition countries. The second chapter is an empirical analysis of the gender wage gap in a developing countries, the Union of Comoros, using data from the multidimensional household budget survey “Enquete integrale auprès des ménages” (EIM) run in 2004. The interest of my work is to provide a benchmark analysis for further studies on the situation of women in the Comorian labour market and to contribute to the literature on gender wage gap in Africa by making available more information on the dynamics and mechanism of the gender wage gap, given the limited interest on the topic in this area of the world. The third chapter is an applied analysis of the gender wage gap in a transition country, Poland, using data from the Labour Force Survey (LSF) collected for the years 1994 and 2004. I provide a detailed examination of how gender earning differentials have changed over the period starting from 1994 to a more advanced transition phase in 2004, when market elements have become much more important in the functioning of the Polish economy than in the earlier phase. The main contribution of my dissertation is the application of the econometrical methodology that I describe in the beginning of the second chapter. First, I run a preliminary OLS and quantile regression analysis to estimate and describe the raw and conditional wage gaps along the distribution. Second, I estimate quantile regressions separately for males and females, in order to allow for different rewards to characteristics. Third, I proceed to decompose the raw wage gap estimated at the mean through the Oaxaca-Blinder (1973) procedure. In the second chapter I run a two-steps Heckman procedure by estimating a model of participation in the labour market which shows a significant selection bias for females. Forth, I apply the Machado-Mata (2005) techniques to extend the decomposition analysis at all points of the distribution. In Poland I can also implement the Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (1991) decomposition over the period 1994-2004, to account for effects to the pay gap due to changes in overall wage dispersion beyond Oaxaca’s standard decomposition.

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Asset Management (AM) is a set of procedures operable at the strategic-tacticaloperational level, for the management of the physical asset’s performance, associated risks and costs within its whole life-cycle. AM combines the engineering, managerial and informatics points of view. In addition to internal drivers, AM is driven by the demands of customers (social pull) and regulators (environmental mandates and economic considerations). AM can follow either a top-down or a bottom-up approach. Considering rehabilitation planning at the bottom-up level, the main issue would be to rehabilitate the right pipe at the right time with the right technique. Finding the right pipe may be possible and practicable, but determining the timeliness of the rehabilitation and the choice of the techniques adopted to rehabilitate is a bit abstruse. It is a truism that rehabilitating an asset too early is unwise, just as doing it late may have entailed extra expenses en route, in addition to the cost of the exercise of rehabilitation per se. One is confronted with a typical ‘Hamlet-isque dilemma’ – ‘to repair or not to repair’; or put in another way, ‘to replace or not to replace’. The decision in this case is governed by three factors, not necessarily interrelated – quality of customer service, costs and budget in the life cycle of the asset in question. The goal of replacement planning is to find the juncture in the asset’s life cycle where the cost of replacement is balanced by the rising maintenance costs and the declining level of service. System maintenance aims at improving performance and maintaining the asset in good working condition for as long as possible. Effective planning is used to target maintenance activities to meet these goals and minimize costly exigencies. The main objective of this dissertation is to develop a process-model for asset replacement planning. The aim of the model is to determine the optimal pipe replacement year by comparing, temporally, the annual operating and maintenance costs of the existing asset and the annuity of the investment in a new equivalent pipe, at the best market price. It is proposed that risk cost provide an appropriate framework to decide the balance between investment for replacing or operational expenditures for maintaining an asset. The model describes a practical approach to estimate when an asset should be replaced. A comprehensive list of criteria to be considered is outlined, the main criteria being a visà- vis between maintenance and replacement expenditures. The costs to maintain the assets should be described by a cost function related to the asset type, the risks to the safety of people and property owing to declining condition of asset, and the predicted frequency of failures. The cost functions reflect the condition of the existing asset at the time the decision to maintain or replace is taken: age, level of deterioration, risk of failure. The process model is applied in the wastewater network of Oslo, the capital city of Norway, and uses available real-world information to forecast life-cycle costs of maintenance and rehabilitation strategies and support infrastructure management decisions. The case study provides an insight into the various definitions of ‘asset lifetime’ – service life, economic life and physical life. The results recommend that one common value for lifetime should not be applied to the all the pipelines in the stock for investment planning in the long-term period; rather it would be wiser to define different values for different cohorts of pipelines to reduce the uncertainties associated with generalisations for simplification. It is envisaged that more criteria the municipality is able to include, to estimate maintenance costs for the existing assets, the more precise will the estimation of the expected service life be. The ability to include social costs enables to compute the asset life, not only based on its physical characterisation, but also on the sensitivity of network areas to social impact of failures. The type of economic analysis is very sensitive to model parameters that are difficult to determine accurately. The main value of this approach is the effort to demonstrate that it is possible to include, in decision-making, factors as the cost of the risk associated with a decline in level of performance, the level of this deterioration and the asset’s depreciation rate, without looking at age as the sole criterion for making decisions regarding replacements.

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Ground-based Earth troposphere calibration systems play an important role in planetary exploration, especially to carry out radio science experiments aimed at the estimation of planetary gravity fields. In these experiments, the main observable is the spacecraft (S/C) range rate, measured from the Doppler shift of an electromagnetic wave transmitted from ground, received by the spacecraft and coherently retransmitted back to ground. If the solar corona and interplanetary plasma noise is already removed from Doppler data, the Earth troposphere remains one of the main error sources in tracking observables. Current Earth media calibration systems at NASA’s Deep Space Network (DSN) stations are based upon a combination of weather data and multidirectional, dual frequency GPS measurements acquired at each station complex. In order to support Cassini’s cruise radio science experiments, a new generation of media calibration systems were developed, driven by the need to achieve the goal of an end-to-end Allan deviation of the radio link in the order of 3×〖10〗^(-15) at 1000 s integration time. The future ESA’s Bepi Colombo mission to Mercury carries scientific instrumentation for radio science experiments (a Ka-band transponder and a three-axis accelerometer) which, in combination with the S/C telecommunication system (a X/X/Ka transponder) will provide the most advanced tracking system ever flown on an interplanetary probe. Current error budget for MORE (Mercury Orbiter Radioscience Experiment) allows the residual uncalibrated troposphere to contribute with a value of 8×〖10〗^(-15) to the two-way Allan deviation at 1000 s integration time. The current standard ESA/ESTRACK calibration system is based on a combination of surface meteorological measurements and mathematical algorithms, capable to reconstruct the Earth troposphere path delay, leaving an uncalibrated component of about 1-2% of the total delay. In order to satisfy the stringent MORE requirements, the short time-scale variations of the Earth troposphere water vapor content must be calibrated at ESA deep space antennas (DSA) with more precise and stable instruments (microwave radiometers). In parallel to this high performance instruments, ESA ground stations should be upgraded to media calibration systems at least capable to calibrate both troposphere path delay components (dry and wet) at sub-centimetre level, in order to reduce S/C navigation uncertainties. The natural choice is to provide a continuous troposphere calibration by processing GNSS data acquired at each complex by dual frequency receivers already installed for station location purposes. The work presented here outlines the troposphere calibration technique to support both Deep Space probe navigation and radio science experiments. After an introduction to deep space tracking techniques, observables and error sources, in Chapter 2 the troposphere path delay is widely investigated, reporting the estimation techniques and the state of the art of the ESA and NASA troposphere calibrations. Chapter 3 deals with an analysis of the status and the performances of the NASA Advanced Media Calibration (AMC) system referred to the Cassini data analysis. Chapter 4 describes the current release of a developed GNSS software (S/W) to estimate the troposphere calibration to be used for ESA S/C navigation purposes. During the development phase of the S/W a test campaign has been undertaken in order to evaluate the S/W performances. A description of the campaign and the main results are reported in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 presents a preliminary analysis of microwave radiometers to be used to support radio science experiments. The analysis has been carried out considering radiometric measurements of the ESA/ESTEC instruments installed in Cabauw (NL) and compared with the requirements of MORE. Finally, Chapter 7 summarizes the results obtained and defines some key technical aspects to be evaluated and taken into account for the development phase of future instrumentation.

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This thesis is based on the integration of traditional and innovative approaches aimed at improving the normal faults seimogenic identification and characterization, focusing mainly on slip-rate estimate as a measure of the fault activity. The L’Aquila Mw 6.3 April 6, 2009 earthquake causative fault, namely the Paganica - San Demetrio fault system (PSDFS), was used as a test site. We developed a multidisciplinary and scale‐based strategy consisting of paleoseismological investigations, detailed geomorphological and geological field studies, as well as shallow geophysical imaging and an innovative application of physical properties measurements. We produced a detailed geomorphological and geological map of the PSDFS, defining its tectonic style, arrangement, kinematics, extent, geometry and internal complexities. The PSDFS is a 19 km-long tectonic structure, characterized by a complex structural setting and arranged in two main sectors: the Paganica sector to the NW, characterized by a narrow deformation zone, and the San Demetrio sector to SE, where the strain is accommodated by several tectonic structures, exhuming and dissecting a wide Quaternary basin, suggesting the occurrence of strain migration through time. The integration of all the fault displacement data and age constraints (radiocarbon dating, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and tephrochronology) helped in calculating an average Quaternary slip-rate representative for the PSDFS of 0.27 - 0.48 mm/yr. On the basis of its length (ca. 20 km) and slip per event (up to 0.8 m) we also estimated a max expected Magnitude of 6.3-6.8 for this fault. All these topics have a significant implication in terms of surface faulting hazard in the area and may contribute also to the understanding of the PSDFS seismic behavior and of the local seismic hazard.

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We have used kinematic models in two Italian regions to reproduce surface interseismic velocities obtained from InSAR and GPS measurements. We have considered a Block modeling, BM, approach to evaluate which fault system is actively accommodating the occurring deformation in both considered areas. We have performed a study for the Umbria-Marche Apennines, obtaining that the tectonic extension observed by GPS measurements is explained by the active contribution of at least two fault systems, one of which is the Alto Tiberina fault, ATF. We have estimated also the interseismic coupling distribution for the ATF using a 3D surface and the result shows an interesting correlation between the microseismicity and the uncoupled fault portions. The second area analyzed concerns the Gargano promontory for which we have used jointly the available InSAR and GPS velocities. Firstly we have attached the two datasets to the same terrestrial reference frame and then using a simple dislocation approach, we have estimated the best fault parameters reproducing the available data, providing a solution corresponding to the Mattinata fault. Subsequently we have considered within a BM analysis both GPS and InSAR datasets in order to evaluate if the Mattinata fault may accommodate the deformation occurring in the central Adriatic due to the relative motion between the North-Adriatic and South-Adriatic plates. We obtain that the deformation occurring in that region should be accommodated by more that one fault system, that is however difficult to detect since the poor coverage of geodetic measurement offshore of the Gargano promontory. Finally we have performed also the estimate of the interseismic coupling distribution for the Mattinata fault, obtaining a shallow coupling pattern. Both of coupling distributions found using the BM approach have been tested by means of resolution checkerboard tests and they demonstrate that the coupling patterns depend on the geodetic data positions.

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The public awareness that chemical substances are present ubiquitously in the environment, can be assumed through the diet and can exhibit various health effects, is very high in Europe and Italy. National and international institutions are called to provide figures on the magnitude, frequency, and duration of the population exposure to chemicals, including both natural or anthropogenic substances, voluntarily added to consumers’ good or accidentally entering the production chains. This thesis focuses broadly on how human population exposure to chemicals can be estimated, with particular attention to the methodological approaches and specific focus on dietary exposure assessment and biomonitoring. From the results obtained in the different studies collected in this thesis, it has been pointed out that when selecting the approach to use for the estimate of the exposure to chemicals, several different aspects must be taken into account: the nature of the chemical substance, the population of interest, clarify if the objective is to assess chronic or acute exposure, and finally, take into account the quality and quantity of data available in order to specify and quantify the uncertainty of the estimate.