Modelling UV response of biomolecules: from electronic structure to ab-initio dynamics.

The interaction of organic chromophores with light initiates ultrafast processes in the timescale of femtoseconds. An atomistic understanding of the mechanism driving such photoinduced reactions opens up the door to exploit them for our benefit. This thesis studies the interactions of ultraviolet light with the DNA/RNA molecules and the amino-acid tryptophan. Using some of the most accurate electronic structure methods and sophisticated environmental modelling, the works documented herein enable quantitative comparisons with cutting-edge experimental data. The relaxation pathways undertaken by the excited molecule are revealed through static and dynamical investigations of the excited-state potential energy surface. The profound role played by the dynamic response of the environment to guide the excitation in these timescales is addressed thoroughly.

Regulation of SRC-3 localization and dynamics by phosphorylation during ERα-dependent transcriptional activation

Transcription is controlled by promoter-selective transcriptional factors (TFs), which bind to cis-regulatory enhancers elements, termed hormone response elements (HREs), in a specific subset of genes. Regulation by these factors involves either the recruitment of coactivators or corepressors and direct interaction with the basal transcriptional machinery (1). Hormone-activated nuclear receptors (NRs) are well characterized transcriptional factors (2) that bind to the promoters of their target genes and recruit primary and secondary coactivator proteins which possess many enzymatic activities required for gene expression (1,3,4). In the present study, using single-cell high-resolution fluorescent microscopy and high throughput microscopy (HTM) coupled to computational imaging analysis, we investigated transcriptional regulation controlled by the estrogen receptor alpha (ERalpha), in terms of large scale chromatin remodeling and interaction with the associated coactivator SRC-3 (Steroid Receptor Coactivator-3), a member of p160 family (28) primary coactivators. ERalpha is a steroid-dependent transcriptional factor (16) that belongs to the NRs superfamily (2,3) and, in response to the hormone 17-ß estradiol (E2), regulates transcription of distinct target genes involved in development, puberty, and homeostasis (8,16). ERalpha spends most of its lifetime in the nucleus and undergoes a rapid (within minutes) intranuclear redistribution following the addition of either agonist or antagonist (17,18,19). We designed a HeLa cell line (PRL-HeLa), engineered with a chromosomeintegrated reporter gene array (PRL-array) containing multicopy hormone response-binding elements for ERalpha that are derived from the physiological enhancer/promoter region of the prolactin gene. Following GFP-ER transfection of PRL-HeLa cells, we were able to observe in situ ligand dependent (i) recruitment to the array of the receptor and associated coregulators, (ii) chromatin remodeling, and (iii) direct transcriptional readout of the reporter gene. Addition of E2 causes a visible opening (decondensation) of the PRL-array, colocalization of RNA Polymerase II, and transcriptional readout of the reporter gene, detected by mRNA FISH. On the contrary, when cells were treated with an ERalpha antagonist (Tamoxifen or ICI), a dramatic condensation of the PRL-array was observed, displacement of RNA Polymerase II, and complete decreasing in the transcriptional FISH signal. All p160 family coactivators (28) colocalize with ERalpha at the PRL-array. Steroid Receptor Coactivator-3 (SRC-3/AIB1/ACTR/pCIP/RAC3/TRAM1) is a p160 family member and a known oncogenic protein (4,34). SRC-3 is regulated by a variety of posttranslational modifications, including methylation, phosphorylation, acetylation, ubiquitination and sumoylation (4,35). These events have been shown to be important for its interaction with other coactivator proteins and NRs and for its oncogenic potential (37,39). A number of extracellular signaling molecules, like steroid hormones, growth factors and cytokines, induce SRC-3 phosphorylation (40). These actions are mediated by a wide range of kinases, including extracellular-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1-2), c-Jun N-terminal kinase, p38 MAPK, and IkB kinases (IKKs) (41,42,43). Here, we report SRC-3 to be a nucleocytoplasmic shuttling protein, whose cellular localization is regulated by phosphorylation and interaction with ERalpha. Using a combination of high throughput and fluorescence microscopy, we show that both chemical inhibition (with U0126) and siRNA downregulation of the MAP/ERK1/2 kinase (MEK1/2) pathway induce a cytoplasmic shift in SRC-3 localization, whereas stimulation by EGF signaling enhances its nuclear localization by inducing phosphorylation at T24, S857, and S860, known partecipants in the regulation of SRC-3 activity (39). Accordingly, the cytoplasmic localization of a non-phosphorylatable SRC-3 mutant further supports these results. In the presence of ERalpha, U0126 also dramatically reduces: hormone-dependent colocalization of ERalpha and SRC-3 in the nucleus; formation of ER-SRC-3 coimmunoprecipitation complex in cell lysates; localization of SRC-3 at the ER-targeted prolactin promoter array (PRL-array) and transcriptional activity. Finally, we show that SRC-3 can also function as a cotransporter, facilitating the nuclear-cytoplasmic shuttling of estrogen receptor. While a wealth of studies have revealed the molecular functions of NRs and coregulators, there is a paucity of data on how these functions are spatiotemporally organized in the cellular context. Technically and conceptually, our findings have a new impact upon evaluating gene transcriptional control and mechanisms of action of gene regulators.

Development of Clinical Decision Support Systems based on Mathematical Models of Physiological Systems

In the last years of research, I focused my studies on different physiological problems. Together with my supervisors, I developed/improved different mathematical models in order to create valid tools useful for a better understanding of important clinical issues. The aim of all this work is to develop tools for learning and understanding cardiac and cerebrovascular physiology as well as pathology, generating research questions and developing clinical decision support systems useful for intensive care unit patients. I. ICP-model Designed for Medical Education We developed a comprehensive cerebral blood flow and intracranial pressure model to simulate and study the complex interactions in cerebrovascular dynamics caused by multiple simultaneous alterations, including normal and abnormal functional states of auto-regulation of the brain. Individual published equations (derived from prior animal and human studies) were implemented into a comprehensive simulation program. Included in the normal physiological modelling was: intracranial pressure, cerebral blood flow, blood pressure, and carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressure. We also added external and pathological perturbations, such as head up position and intracranial haemorrhage. The model performed clinically realistically given inputs of published traumatized patients, and cases encountered by clinicians. The pulsatile nature of the output graphics was easy for clinicians to interpret. The manoeuvres simulated include changes of basic physiological inputs (e.g. blood pressure, central venous pressure, CO2 tension, head up position, and respiratory effects on vascular pressures) as well as pathological inputs (e.g. acute intracranial bleeding, and obstruction of cerebrospinal outflow). Based on the results, we believe the model would be useful to teach complex relationships of brain haemodynamics and study clinical research questions such as the optimal head-up position, the effects of intracranial haemorrhage on cerebral haemodynamics, as well as the best CO2 concentration to reach the optimal compromise between intracranial pressure and perfusion. We believe this model would be useful for both beginners and advanced learners. It could be used by practicing clinicians to model individual patients (entering the effects of needed clinical manipulations, and then running the model to test for optimal combinations of therapeutic manoeuvres). II. A Heterogeneous Cerebrovascular Mathematical Model Cerebrovascular pathologies are extremely complex, due to the multitude of factors acting simultaneously on cerebral haemodynamics. In this work, the mathematical model of cerebral haemodynamics and intracranial pressure dynamics, described in the point I, is extended to account for heterogeneity in cerebral blood flow. The model includes the Circle of Willis, six regional districts independently regulated by autoregulation and CO2 reactivity, distal cortical anastomoses, venous circulation, the cerebrospinal fluid circulation, and the intracranial pressure-volume relationship. Results agree with data in the literature and highlight the existence of a monotonic relationship between transient hyperemic response and the autoregulation gain. During unilateral internal carotid artery stenosis, local blood flow regulation is progressively lost in the ipsilateral territory with the presence of a steal phenomenon, while the anterior communicating artery plays the major role to redistribute the available blood flow. Conversely, distal collateral circulation plays a major role during unilateral occlusion of the middle cerebral artery. In conclusion, the model is able to reproduce several different pathological conditions characterized by heterogeneity in cerebrovascular haemodynamics and can not only explain generalized results in terms of physiological mechanisms involved, but also, by individualizing parameters, may represent a valuable tool to help with difficult clinical decisions. III. Effect of Cushing Response on Systemic Arterial Pressure. During cerebral hypoxic conditions, the sympathetic system causes an increase in arterial pressure (Cushing response), creating a link between the cerebral and the systemic circulation. This work investigates the complex relationships among cerebrovascular dynamics, intracranial pressure, Cushing response, and short-term systemic regulation, during plateau waves, by means of an original mathematical model. The model incorporates the pulsating heart, the pulmonary circulation and the systemic circulation, with an accurate description of the cerebral circulation and the intracranial pressure dynamics (same model as in the first paragraph). Various regulatory mechanisms are included: cerebral autoregulation, local blood flow control by oxygen (O2) and/or CO2 changes, sympathetic and vagal regulation of cardiovascular parameters by several reflex mechanisms (chemoreceptors, lung-stretch receptors, baroreceptors). The Cushing response has been described assuming a dramatic increase in sympathetic activity to vessels during a fall in brain O2 delivery. With this assumption, the model is able to simulate the cardiovascular effects experimentally observed when intracranial pressure is artificially elevated and maintained at constant level (arterial pressure increase and bradicardia). According to the model, these effects arise from the interaction between the Cushing response and the baroreflex response (secondary to arterial pressure increase). Then, patients with severe head injury have been simulated by reducing intracranial compliance and cerebrospinal fluid reabsorption. With these changes, oscillations with plateau waves developed. In these conditions, model results indicate that the Cushing response may have both positive effects, reducing the duration of the plateau phase via an increase in cerebral perfusion pressure, and negative effects, increasing the intracranial pressure plateau level, with a risk of greater compression of the cerebral vessels. This model may be of value to assist clinicians in finding the balance between clinical benefits of the Cushing response and its shortcomings. IV. Comprehensive Cardiopulmonary Simulation Model for the Analysis of Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure We developed a new comprehensive cardiopulmonary model that takes into account the mutual interactions between the cardiovascular and the respiratory systems along with their short-term regulatory mechanisms. The model includes the heart, systemic and pulmonary circulations, lung mechanics, gas exchange and transport equations, and cardio-ventilatory control. Results show good agreement with published patient data in case of normoxic and hyperoxic hypercapnia simulations. In particular, simulations predict a moderate increase in mean systemic arterial pressure and heart rate, with almost no change in cardiac output, paralleled by a relevant increase in minute ventilation, tidal volume and respiratory rate. The model can represent a valid tool for clinical practice and medical research, providing an alternative way to experience-based clinical decisions. In conclusion, models are not only capable of summarizing current knowledge, but also identifying missing knowledge. In the former case they can serve as training aids for teaching the operation of complex systems, especially if the model can be used to demonstrate the outcome of experiments. In the latter case they generate experiments to be performed to gather the missing data.

The language of action. How language translates the dynamics of our actions.

The general aim of the thesis was to investigate how and to what extent the characteristics of action organization are reflected in language, and how they influence language processing and understanding. Even though a huge amount of research has been devoted to the study of the motor effects of language, this issue is very debated in literature. Namely, the majority of the studies have focused on low-level motor effects such as effector-relatedness of action, whereas only a few studies have started to systematically investigate how specific aspects of action organization are encoded and reflected in language. After a review of previous studies on the relationship between language comprehension and action (chapter 1) and a critical discussion of some of them (chapter 2), the thesis is composed by three experimental chapters, each devoted to a specific aspect of action organization. Chapter 3 presents a study designed with the aim to disentangle the effective time course of the involvement of the motor system during language processing. Three kinematics experiments were designed in order to determine whether and, at which stage of motor planning and execution effector-related action verbs influence actions executed with either the same or a different effector. Results demonstrate that the goal of an action can be linguistically re-activated, producing a modulation of the motor response. In chapter 4, a second study investigates the interplay between the role of motor perspective (agent) and the organization of action in motor chains. More specifically, this kinematics study aims at deepening how goal can be translated in language, using as stimuli simple sentences composed by a pronoun (I, You, He/She) and a verb. Results showed that the perspective activated by the pronoun You reflects the motor pattern of the “agent” combined with the chain structure of the verb. These data confirm an early involvement of the motor system in language processing, suggesting that it is specifically modulated by the activation of the agent’s perspective. In chapter 5, the issue of perspective is specifically investigated, focusing on its role in language comprehension. In particular, this study aimed at determining how a specific perspective (induced for example by a personal pronoun) modulates motor behaviour during and after language processing. A classical compatibility effect (the Action-sentence compatibility effect) has been used to this aim. In three behavioural experiments the authors investigated how the ACE is modulated by taking first or third person perspective. Results from these experiments showed that the ACE effect occurs only when a first-person perspective is activated by the sentences used as stimuli. Overall, the data from this thesis contributed to disentangle several aspects of how action organization is translated in language, and then reactivated during language processing. This constitutes a new contribution to the field, adding lacking information on how specific aspects such as goal and perspective are linguistically described. In addition, these studies offer a new point of view to understand the functional implications of the involvement of the motor system during language comprehension, specifically from the point of view of our social interactions.

Changes in tumor stiffness for early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib: a proof-of-concept study with elastosonography in an animal model of Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC)

Background and aims: Sorafenib is the reference therapy for advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC). No method exists to predict in the very early period subsequent individual response. Starting from the clinical experience in humans that subcutaneous metastases may rapidly change consistency under sorafenib and that elastosonography a new ultrasound based technique allows assessment of tissue stiffness, we investigated the role of elastonography in the very early prediction of tumor response to sorafenib in a HCC animal model. Methods: HCC (Huh7 cells) subcutaneous xenografting in mice was utilized. Mice were randomized to vehicle or treatment with sorafenib when tumor size was 5-10 mm. Elastosonography (Mylab 70XVG, Esaote, Genova, Italy) of the whole tumor mass on a sagittal plane with a 10 MHz linear transducer was performed at different time points from treatment start (day 0, +2, +4, +7 and +14) until mice were sacrified (day +14), with the operator blind to treatment. In order to overcome variability in absolute elasticity measurement when assessing changes over time, values were expressed in arbitrary units as relative stiffness of the tumor tissue in comparison to the stiffness of a standard reference stand-off pad lying on the skin over the tumor. Results: Sor-treated mice showed a smaller tumor size increase at day +14 in comparison to vehicle-treated (tumor volume increase +192.76% vs +747.56%, p=0.06). Among Sor-treated tumors, 6 mice showed a better response to treatment than the other 4 (increase in volume +177% vs +553%, p=0.011). At day +2, median tumor elasticity increased in Sor-treated group (+6.69%, range –30.17-+58.51%), while decreased in the vehicle group (-3.19%, range –53.32-+37.94%) leading to a significant difference in absolute values (p=0.034). From this time point onward, elasticity decreased in both groups, with similar speed over time, not being statistically different anymore. In Sor-treated mice all 6 best responders at day 14 showed an increase in elasticity at day +2 (ranging from +3.30% to +58.51%) in comparison to baseline, whereas 3 of the 4 poorer responders showed a decrease. Interestingly, these 3 tumours showed elasticity values higher than responder tumours at day 0. Conclusions: Elastosonography appears a promising non-invasive new technique for the early prediction of HCC tumor response to sorafenib. Indeed, we proved that responder tumours are characterized by an early increase in elasticity. The possibility to distinguish a priori between responders and non responders based on the higher elasticity of the latter needs to be validated in ad-hoc experiments as well as a confirmation of our results in humans is warranted.

Influence of nitrogen and soil physical characteristics on belowground carbon flux dynamics of woody plants

At ecosystem level soil respiration (Rs) represents the largest carbon (C) flux after gross primary productivity, being mainly generated by root respiration (autotrophic respiration, Ra) and soil microbial respiration (heterotrophic respiration, Rh). In the case of terrestrial ecosystems, soils contain the largest C-pool, storing twice the amount of C contained in plant biomass. Soil organic matter (SOM), representing the main C storage in soil, is decomposed by soil microbial community. This process produces CO2 which is mainly released as Rh. It is thus relevant to understand how microbial activity is influenced by environmental factors like soil temperature, soil moisture and nutrient availability, since part of the CO2 produced by Rh, directly increases atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore affects the phenomenon of climate change. Among terrestrial ecosystems, agricultural fields have traditionally been considered as sources of atmospheric CO2. In agricultural ecosystems, in particular apple orchards, I identified the role of root density, soil temperature, soil moisture and nitrogen (N) availability on Rs and on its two components, Ra and Rh. To do so I applied different techniques to separate Rs in its two components, the ”regression technique” and the “trenching technique”. I also studied the response of Ra to different levels of N availability, distributed either in a uniform or localized way, in the case of Populus tremuloides trees. The results showed that Rs is mainly driven by soil temperature, to which it is positively correlated, that high levels of soil moisture have inhibiting effects, and that N has a negligible influence on total Rs, as well as on Ra. Further I found a negative response of Rh to high N availability, suggesting that microbial decomposition processes in the soil are inhibited by the presence of N. The contribution of Ra to Rs was of 37% on average.

Analysis of the memory B cell response against glycoconjugate vaccines

The development of vaccines directed against polysaccharide capsules of S. pneumoniae, H. influenzae and N. meningitidis have been of great importance in preventing potentially fatal infections. Bacterial capsular polysaccharides are T-cell-independent antigens that induce specific antibody response characterized by IgM immunoglobulins, with a very low IgG class switched response and lack of capability of inducing a booster response. The inability of pure polysaccharides to induce sustained immune responses has required the development of vaccines containing polysaccharides conjugated to a carrier protein, with the aim to generate T cell help. It is clear that the immunogenicity of glycoconjugate vaccines can vary depending on different factors, e.g. chemical nature of the linked polysaccharide, carrier protein, age of the target population, adjuvant used. The present study analyzes the memory B cell (MBC) response to the polysaccharide and to the carrier protein following vaccination with a glycoconjugate vaccine for the prevention of Group B streptococcus (GBS) infection. Not much is known about the role of adjuvants in the development of immunological memory raised against GBS polysaccharides, as well as about the influence of having a pre-existing immunity against the carrier protein on the B cell response raised against the polysaccharide component of the vaccine. We demonstrate in the mouse model that adjuvants can increase the antibody and memory B cell response to the carrier protein and to the conjugated polysaccharide. We also demonstrate that a pre-existing immunity to the carrier protein favors the development of the antibody and memory B cell response to subsequent vaccinations with a glycoconjugate, even in absence of adjuvants. These data provide a useful insight for a better understanding of the mechanism of action of this class of vaccines and for designing the best vaccine that could result in a productive and long lasting memory response.

Use of behavioural patterns to analyze transport stress in piglets and young bulls. The influence of individual coping characteristics in stress response.

In modern farm systems the economic interests make reducing the risks related to transport practice an important goal. An increasing attention is directed to the welfare of animals in transit, also considering the new existing facilities. In recent years the results coming from the study of animal farm behaviour were used as tool to assess the welfare. In this thesis were analyzed behavioural patterns, jointly with blood variables, to evaluate the stress response of piglets and young bulls during transport. Since the animal behaviour could be different between individuals and these differences can affect animal responses to aversive situations, the individual behavioural characteristics were taken in account. Regarding young bulls, selected to genetic evaluation, the individual behaviour was investigated before, during and after transport, while for piglets was adopted a tested methodology classification and behavioural tests to observe their coping characteristics. The aim of this thesis was to analyse the behavioural and physiological response of young bulls and piglets to transport practice and to investigate if coping characteristics may affect how piglets cope with aversive situations. The thesis is composed by four experimental studies. The first one aims to identify the best existent methodology classification of piglets coping style between those that were credited in literature. The second one investigated the differences in response to novel situations of piglets with different coping styles. The last studies evaluated the stress response of piglets and young bulls to road transportation. The results obtained show that transport did not affect the behaviour and homeostasis of young animals which respond in a different way from adults. However the understanding of individual behavioural characteristic and the use of behavioural patterns, in addition to blood analyses, need to be more investigated in order to be useful tools to assess the animal response in aversive situation.

Sea-Level climate variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea-level variability is characterized by multiple interacting factors described in the Fourth Assessment Report (Bindoff et al., 2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that act over wide spectra of temporal and spatial scales. In Church et al. (2010) sea-level variability and changes are defined as manifestations of climate variability and change. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) defines sea level as one of most important indicators for monitoring climate change, as it integrates the response of different components of the Earths system and is also affected by anthropogenic contributions (EEA, 2011). The balance between the different sea-level contributions represents an important source of uncertainty, involving stochastic processes that are very difficult to describe and understand in detail, to the point that they are defined as an enigma in Munk (2002). Sea-level rate estimates are affected by all these uncertainties, in particular if we look at possible responses to sea-level contributions to future climate. At the regional scale, lateral fluxes also contribute to sea-level variability, adding complexity to sea-level dynamics. The research strategy adopted in this work to approach such an interesting and challenging topic has been to develop an objective methodology to study sea-level variability at different temporal and spatial scales, applicable in each part of the Mediterranean basin in particular, and in the global ocean in general, using all the best calibrated sources of data (for the Mediterranean): in-situ, remote-sensig and numerical models data. The global objective of this work was to achieve a deep understanding of all of the components of the sea-level signal contributing to sea-level variability, tendency and trend and to quantify them.

The Influence of Baseline Metabolic Rate and Exercise Training on Cardio-Respiratory Dynamics

Speeding the VO2 kinetics results in a reduction of the O2 deficit. Two factors might determine VO2 kinetics: oxygen delivery to muscle (Tschakovsky and Hughson 1999) and a muscle 'metabolic inertia' (Grassi et al. 1996). Therefore, in study 1 we investigated VO2 kinetics and cardiovascular system adaptations during step exercise transitions in different regions of the moderate domain. In study 2 we investigated muscle oxygenation and cardio-pulmonary adaptations during step exercise tests before, after and over a period of training. Study 1 methods: Seven subjects (26 ± 8 yr; 176 ± 5 cm; 69 ± 6 kg) performed 4 types of step transition from rest (0-50W; 0-100W) or elevate baseline (25-75W; 25-125W). GET and VO2max were assessed before testing. O2 uptake and were measured during testing. Study 2 methods: 10 subjects (25 ± 4 yr; 175 ± 9 cm; 71 ± 12 kg) performed a step transition test (0 to 100 W) before, after and during 4 weeks of endurance training (ET). VO2max and GET were assessed before and after of ET (40 minutes, 3 times a week, 60% O2max). VO2 uptake, Q and deoxyheamoglobin were measured during testing. Study 1 results: VO2 τ and the functional gain were slower in the upper regions of the moderate domain. Q increased more abruptly during rest to work condition. Q τ was faster than VO2 τ for each exercise step. Study 2 results: VO2 τ became faster after ET (25%) and particularly after 1 training session (4%). Q kinetics changed after 4 training sessions nevertheless it was always faster than VO2 τ. An attenuation in ∆[HHb] /∆VO2 was detectible. Conclusion: these investigations suggest that muscle fibres recruitment exerts a influence on the VO2 response within the moderate domain either during different forms of step transition or following ET.

The role of bifidobacteria in newborn health and the intestinal microbial balance

Gut microbial acquisition during the early stage of life is an extremely important event since it affects the health status of the host. In this contest the healthy properties of the genus Bifidobacterium have a central function in newborns. The aim of this thesis was to explore the dynamics of the gut microbial colonization in newborns and to suggest possible strategies to maintain or restore a correct balance of gut bacterial population in infants. The first step of this work was to review the most recent studies on the use of probiotics and prebiotics in infants. Secondly, in order to prevent or treat intestinal disorders that may affect newborns, the capability of selected Bifidobacterium strains to reduce the amount of Enterobacteriaceae and against the infant pathogen Streptococcus agalactiae was evaluated in vitro. Furthermore, the ability of several commercial fibers to stimulate selectively the growth of bifidobacterial strains was checked. Finally, the gut microbial composition in the early stage of life in response to the intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) against group B Streptococcus was studied using q-PCR, DGGE and next generation sequencing. The results globally showed that Bifidobacterium breve B632 strain is the best candidate for the use in a synbiotic product coupled to a mixture of two selected prebiotic fibers (galactooligosaccharides and fructooligosaccharides) for gastrointestinal disorders in infants. Moreover, the early gut microbial composition was affected by IAP treatment with infants showing lower counts of Bifidobacterium spp. and Bacteroides spp. coupled to a decrement of biodiversity of bacteria, compared to control infants. These studies have shown that IAP could affect the early intestinal balance in infants and they have paved the way to the definition of new strategies alternative to antibiotic treatment to control GBS infection in pregnant women.

Dynamics of coastal aquifers: data-driven forecasting and risk analysis

This work is focused on the study of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers, and in particular on the realization of conceptual schemes to evaluate the risk associated with it. Saltwater intrusion depends on different natural and anthropic factors, both presenting a strong aleatory behaviour, that should be considered for an optimal management of the territory and water resources. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk associated with salinization needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters are modeled as random variables, and global sensitivity analysis is used to determine their influence on the position of saltwater interface. The analyses presented in this work rely on an efficient model reduction technique, based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion, able to combine the best description of the model without great computational burden. When the assumptions of classical analytical models are not respected, and this occurs several times in the applications to real cases of study, as in the area analyzed in the present work, one can adopt data-driven techniques, based on the analysis of the data characterizing the system under study. It follows that a model can be defined on the basis of connections between the system state variables, with only a limited number of assumptions about the "physical" behaviour of the system.

Dynamics of terricolous alpine lichen communities of the Alps and Mediterranean Mountains in a climate change perspective

This thesis focuses on the impact of climate change in alpine ecosystems stressing the response of high elevation terricolous lichen communities. In fact, despite the strong sensitivity of cryptogams to changes in climatic factors, information is still scanty.We collected records in 154 plots placed in the summit area of the Majella Massif. In Following a multitaxon approach, Chapter 1 includes cryptogams and vascular plants. We analysed patterns in species richness, beta diversity and functional composition. In Chapter 2, we analysed the relationships between climatic variables and phylogenetic diversity and structure indices. Chapter 3 provides a long-term response relative to the consequences of climate change on a representative terricolous lichen genus across the Alps. Chapter 4 explores the relationships between the species richness and the functional composition of lichen growing on two types of substrates (carbonatic and siliceous soils) along different elevation gradients in the Eastern Alps. Climate change could affect cryptogams and lichens much more than vascular plants in Mediterranean mountains. Contrasting species-climate and traits-climate relationships were found between lichens and bryophytes, suggesting that each group may be sensitive to different components of climate change. Ongoing climate change may also lead to a loss of genetic diversity at high elevation ranges in the Mediterranean mountains, pauperising the life history richness of lichens. Alpine results forecasted that moderate range loss dynamics will occur at low elevation and in peripheral areas of the alpine chain. Results also support the view that range dynamics could be associated with functional traits mainly related to water-use strategies, dispersal, and establishment ability. We also highlighted the importance of substrates as a main driver of both species’ richness and functional traits composition. A “trade-off” also occurs between stress tolerance and the competitive response of communities of terricolous lichens that grow above siliceous and carbonatic soils.