Development of a patient-specific model for stroke risk assessment in atrial fibrillation patients

Atrial fibrillation is associated with a five-fold increase in the risk of cerebrovascular events,being responsible of 15-18% of all strokes.The morphological and functional remodelling of the left atrium caused by atrial fibrillation favours blood stasis and, consequently, stroke risk. In this context, several clinical studies suggest that stroke risk stratification could be improved by using haemodynamic information on the left atrium (LA) and the left atrial appendage (LAA). The goal of this study was to develop a personalized computational fluid-dynamics (CFD) model of the left atrium which could clarify the haemodynamic implications of atrial fibrillation on a patient specific basis. The developed CFD model was first applied to better understand the role of LAA in stroke risk. Infact, the interplay of the LAA geometric parameters such as LAA length, tortuosity, surface area and volume with the fluid-dynamics parameters and the effects of the LAA closure have not been investigated. Results demonstrated the capabilities of the CFD model to reproduce the real physiological behaviour of the blood flow dynamics inside the LA and the LAA. Finally, we determined that the fluid-dynamics parameters enhanced in this research project could be used as new quantitative indexes to describe the different types of AF and open new scenarios for the patient-specific stroke risk stratification.

Il Nilotinib nella terapia di prima linea della leucemia mieloide cronica

Background: Nilotinib is a potent and selective BCR-ABL inhibitor. The phase 3 ENESTnd trial demonstrated superior efficacy nilotinib vs imatinib, with higher and faster molecular responses. After 24 months, the rates of progression to accelerated-blastic phase (ABP) were 0.7% and 1.1% with nilotinib 300mg and 400mg BID, respectively, significantly lower compared to imatinib (4.2%). Nilotinib has been approved for the frontline treatment of Ph+ CML. With imatinib 400mg (IRIS trial), the rate of any event and of progression to ABP were higher during the first 3 years. Consequently, a confirmation of the durability of responses to nilotinib beyond 3 years is extremely important. Aims: To evaluate the response and the outcome of patients treated for 3 years with nilotinib 400mg BID as frontline therapy. Methods: A multicentre phase 2 trial was conducted by the GIMEMA CML WP (ClinicalTrials.gov.NCT00481052). Minimum 36-month follow-up data for all patients will be presented. Definitions: Major Molecular Response (MMR): BCR-ABL/ABL ratio <0,1%IS; Complete Molecular Response (CMR): undetectable transcript levels with ≥10,000 ABL transcripts; failures: according to the revised ELN recommendations; events: failures and treatment discontinuation for any reason. All the analysis has been made according to the intention-to-treat principle. Results: 73 patients enrolled: median age 51 years; 45% low, 41% intermediate and 14% high Sokal risk. The cumulative incidence of CCgR at 12 months was 100%. CCgR at each milestone: 78%, 96%, 96%, 95%, 92% at 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months, respectively. The overall estimated probability of MMR was 97%, while the rates of MMR at 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months were 52%, 66%, 85%, 81% and 82%, respectively. The overall estimated probability of CMR was 79%, while the rates of CMR at 12 and 24 months were 12% and 27%, respectively. No patient achieving a MMR progressed to AP. Only one patient progressed at 6 months to ABP and subsequently died (high Sokal risk, T315I mutation). Adverse events were mostly grade 1 or 2 and manageable with appropriate dose adaptations. During the first 12 months, the mean daily dose was 600-800mg in 74% of patients. The nilotinib last daily dose was as follows: 800mg in 46 (63%) patients, 600mg in 3 (4%) patients and 400mg in 18 (25%), 6 permanent discontinuations. Detail of discontinuation: 1 patient progressed to ABP; 3 patients had recurrent episodes of amylase and/or lipase increase (no pancreatitis); 1 patient had atrial fibrillation (unrelated to study drug) and 1 patient died after 32 months of mental deterioration and starvation (unrelated to study drug). Two patients are currently on imatinib second-line and 2 on dasatinib third-line. With a median follow-up of 39 months, the estimated probability of overall survival, progression-free survival and failure-free survival was 97%, the estimated probability of event-free survival was 91%. Conclusions: The rate of failures was very low during the first 3 years. Responses remain stable. The high rates of responses achieved during the first 12 months are being translated into optimal outcome for most of patients.

Variability analysis of discrete event series and wavefront patterns in surface electrocardiogram: contributions to psychophysiological and clinical research

The surface electrocardiogram (ECG) is an established diagnostic tool for the detection of abnormalities in the electrical activity of the heart. The interest of the ECG, however, extends beyond the diagnostic purpose. In recent years, studies in cognitive psychophysiology have related heart rate variability (HRV) to memory performance and mental workload. The aim of this thesis was to analyze the variability of surface ECG derived rhythms, at two different time scales: the discrete-event time scale, typical of beat-related features (Objective I), and the “continuous” time scale of separated sources in the ECG (Objective II), in selected scenarios relevant to psychophysiological and clinical research, respectively. Objective I) Joint time-frequency and non-linear analysis of HRV was carried out, with the goal of assessing psychophysiological workload (PPW) in response to working memory engaging tasks. Results from fourteen healthy young subjects suggest the potential use of the proposed indices in discriminating PPW levels in response to varying memory-search task difficulty. Objective II) A novel source-cancellation method based on morphology clustering was proposed for the estimation of the atrial wavefront in atrial fibrillation (AF) from body surface potential maps. Strong direct correlation between spectral concentration (SC) of atrial wavefront and temporal variability of the spectral distribution was shown in persistent AF patients, suggesting that with higher SC, shorter observation time is required to collect spectral distribution, from which the fibrillatory rate is estimated. This could be time and cost effective in clinical decision-making. The results held for reduced leads sets, suggesting that a simplified setup could also be considered, further reducing the costs. In designing the methods of this thesis, an online signal processing approach was kept, with the goal of contributing to real-world applicability. An algorithm for automatic assessment of ambulatory ECG quality, and an automatic ECG delineation algorithm were designed and validated.

Studio osservazionale sulle complicanze della fibrillazione atriale nell'area di Bologna.

Premesse: Gli eventi ischemici (EI) e le emorragie cerebrali (EIC) sono le più temute complicanze della fibrillazione atriale (FA) e della profilassi antitrombotica. Metodi: in 6 mesi sono stati valutati prospetticamente i pazienti ammessi in uno dei PS dell’area di Bologna con FA associata ad EI (ictus o embolia periferica) o ad EIC. Risultati: sono stati arruolati 178 pazienti (60 maschi, età mediana 85 anni) con EI. Il trattamento antitrombotico in corso era: a) antagonisti della vitamina K (AVK) in 31 (17.4%), INR all’ingresso: <2 in 16, in range (2.0-3.0) in 13, >3 in 2; b) aspirina (ASA) in 107 (60.1%); c) nessun trattamento in 40 (22.5%), soprattutto in FA di nuova insorgenza. Nei 20 pazienti (8 maschi; età mediana 82) con EIC il trattamento era: a)AVK in 13 (65%), INR in range in 11 pazienti, > 3 in 2, b) ASA in 6 (30%). La maggior parte degli EI (88%) ed EIC (95%) si sono verificati in pazienti con età > 70 anni. Abbiamo valutato l’incidenza annuale di eventi nei soggetti con età > 70 anni seguiti neo centri della terapia anticoagulante (TAO) e nei soggetti con FA stimata non seguiti nei centri TAO. L’incidenza annuale di EI è risultata 12% (95%CI 10.7-13.3) nei pazienti non seguiti nei centri TAO, 0.57% (95% CI 0.42-0.76) nei pazienti dei centri TAO ( RRA 11.4%, RRR 95%, p<0.0001). Per le EIC l’incidenza annuale è risultata 0.63% (95% CI 0.34-1.04) e 0.30% (95% CI 0.19-0.44) nei due gruppi ( RRA di 0.33%/anno, RRR del 52%/anno, p=0.040). Conclusioni: gli EI si sono verificati soprattutto in pazienti anziani in trattamento con ASA o senza trattamento. La metà dei pazienti in AVK avevano un INR sub terapeutico. L’approccio terapeutico negli anziani con FA deve prevedere un’ adeguata gestione della profilassi antitrombotica.

Sinus rhythm restoration with electrical cardioversion: acute effect of shock configuration and subsequent modifications in peripheral flow and sleep.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a widespread arrhythmia, associated with higher risk of stroke, sleep disorders and dementia. In some conditions, electrical cardioversion (ECV) represents the best choice for rhythm control. Nowadays, there is a growing interest in developing new devices for screening and monitoring of AF patients. We aimed to improve acute efficacy of ECV procedure and to explore the feasibility of the use of new wearable devices for monitoring in candidates to AF ECV. We compared antero-apical pads vs antero-posterior patches approach for AF ECV, and we elaborated a decision algorithm to improve acute efficacy. After, we evaluated the feasibility of the use of new wearable devices for monitoring of candidates to AF ECV. In particular, we analysed the effect of AF ECV on heart rate variability and vascular age parameters derived from PPG signals registered with Empatica (CE 1876/MDD 93/42/EEC), and on EEG pattern registered with Neurosteer (Israel). From December 2005 to September 2019, 492 patients were enrolled. We evaluated acute efficacy of the two approaches for AF ECV and we elaborated a decision algorithm based on body surface area, weight, and height. The decision algorithm improved first shock efficacy (93.2% vs. 87.2%, p=0.025). From 1st November 2021 to 1st April 2022, 24 patients were enrolled in PPEEG-AF pilot study. Considering vascular age parameters, a significant reduction in TPR and a wave was observed (p<0.001). Considering sleep patterns, a tendency to higher coherence was observed in registrations acquired during AF, or considering signals registered for each patient independently from AF. The new decision algorithm improved acute efficacy and reduced costs associated with adhesive patches. Significant modifications were observed on vascular age parameters measured before and after ECV, and a possible AF effect on sleep pattern was noticed. More data are necessary to confirm these preliminary results.

Trattamento transcatetere e chirurgico della stenosi valvolare aortica severa in Hesperia Hospital Modena nella seconda decade del ventunesimo secolo

Scopo Confrontare il trattamento transcatetere (TAVI) balloon-expandable con il trattamento chirurgico di sostituzione valvolare aortica (AVR) della stenosi valvolare aortica severa (SVAS) nella pratica clinica real world. Materiali e metodi Nel decennio 2010-2020, 1486 pazienti con SVAS isolata sono stati sottoposti a AVR (n=1049) o TAVI balloon-expandable (n=437) presso Hesperia Hospital Modena. Sono stati analizzati la Mortality nell’intera popolazione e gli episodi di ricovero cardiovascolare nei 5 anni precedenti e durante il follow-up nella popolazione residente in Emilia Romagna (n=1196) al momento della procedura (AVR n=879, TAVI balloon-expandable n=317). Risultati La popolazione TAVI è risultata mediamente più anziana di quella AVR (età media 82.2 vs. 72.7 anni) e maggiormente gravata da comorbidità. L’In-hospital mortality è stata del 1.4% nella AVR e 2.1% nella TAVI (pNS). La sopravvivenza a 5 anni è stata del 85.74% nella AVR e del 59.45% nella TAVI, con la TAVI come fattore predittivo di All-cause mortality (HR 1.44 95%CI 1.14-1.82). La riospedalizzazione per Heart Failure a 5 anni è stata del 20.6% per AVR e 51.3% per TAVI, con dialisi preoperatoria (HR 5.67 95%CI 3.06-10.49) come principale fattore predittivo. Il tasso di All Stroke a 5 anni è stato del 3.7% nella AVR e del 7.5% nella TAVI, con fibrillazione atriale preoperatoria come principale fattore predittivo (HR 1.91 95%CI 1.06-3.45). Il tasso di angioplastica coronarica percutanea (PCI) a 5 anni è stato del 3.1% sia nella AVR che nella TAVI, con previous PCI come principale fattore predittivo (HR 4.86 95%CI 2.57-9.21). L’impianto di pacemaker a 30 giorni è stato del 2.9% nella AVR e 3.4% nella TAVI (pNS). Conclusioni Nella pratica clinica real-world 2010-2020 di un centro cardiochirurgico a medio volume, la TAVI balloon-expandable ha mostrato una eccellente performance a 30 giorni in confronto con la AVR, che invece ha evidenziato una migliore performance durante follow-up.

Nuovi approcci al trattamento della valvulopatia aortica

Background L’incidenza di malattie valvolari aortiche è in costante aumento. La terapia definitiva è chirurgica o interventistica, determinando un evidente miglioramento della qualità di vita, a fronte di un rischio operatorio ormai estremamente basso. Le linee guida internazionali più recenti pongono in classe I entrambe le procedure nella fascia di età fra 65 e 80 anni. Materiali e metodi È stata effettuata un’analisi retrospettiva dei pazienti di età compresa fra 65 e 80 anni, sottoposti a sostituzione valvolare aortica isolata chirurgica con bioprotesi sutureless (gruppo SU-AVR), oppure trans-catetere (gruppo TAVR), presso Maria Cecilia Hospital tra gennaio 2011 e dicembre 2021. Mediante propensity score matching sono stati analizzati, nei due gruppi risultanti, gli outcomes di mortalità e complicanze intraospedaliere, a 30 giorni, ad un anno e attuariale. Risultati Sono stati inclusi nello studio 638 pazienti, di cui 338 (52.98%) nel gruppo SU-AVR e 300 (47.02%) nel gruppo TAVR. Dopo propensity score matching, sono stati ottenuti due gruppi di pazienti (124 per gruppo) senza differenze statisticamente significative nelle comorbidità preoperatorie. La mortalità a 30 giorni è risultata sovrapponibile nei 2 gruppi. Il gruppo TAVR ha mostrato un’incidenza significativamente maggiore di impianto di pacemaker definitivo e di danni vascolari maggiori, mentre il gruppo SU-AVR ha mostrato una maggior incidenza di fibrillazione atriale, di trasfusioni e di insufficienza renale. La mortalità per tutte le cause a un anno è risultata significativamente maggiore per il gruppo TAVR e il divario continua ad aumentare con il tempo. Conclusioni La sostituzione valvolare aortica trans-catetere (TAVR) mostra risultati molto buoni nel breve termine nei pazienti fra 65 e 80 anni di età. Al follow-up a medio termine, tuttavia, i risultati preliminari mostrano un miglior outcome dei pazienti sottoposti a sostituzione valvolare chirurgica, sia in termini di mortalità per qualsiasi causa che di eventi cardiovascolari e cerebrovascolari maggiori.

Dynamic stabilization of Rayleigh-Taylor instability of ablation fronts in inertial confinement fusion

One of the most important problems in inertial confinement fusion is how to find a way to mitigate the onset of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability which arises in the ablation front during the compression. In this thesis it is studied in detail the possibility of using for such a purpose the well-known mechanism of dynamic stabilization, already applied to other dynamical systems such as the inverted pendulum. In this context, a periodic acceleration superposed to the background gravity generates a vertical vibration of the ablation front itself. The effects of different driving modulations (Dirac deltas and square waves) are analyzed from a theoretical point of view, with a focus on stabilization of ion beam driven ablation fronts, and a comparison is made, in order to look for optimization.