3 resultados para area under the curve

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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This was a retrospective study including ninety samples of dogs with a histological diagnosis of intermediate grade cutaneous mast cell tumour (MCT). The objectives of the study were to validate Minichromosome Maintenance Protein 7 (MCM7) as a prognostic marker in MCTs and to compare the ability of mitotic index (MI), Ki67 and MCM7 to predict outcome. The median survival for the entire population was not reached at 2099 days. The mean survival time was 1708 days. Seventy-two cases were censored after a median follow up of 1136 days and eighteen dogs died for causes related to the MCT after a median of 116 days. For each sample MI, Ki67 and MCM7 were determined. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained for each prognostic marker to evaluate the performance of the test, expressed as area under the curve, and whether the published threshold value was adequate. Kaplan-Meier and corresponding logrank test for MI, Ki67 and MCM7 as binary variables was highly significant (P<0.0001). Multivariable regression analysis of MI, Ki67 and MCM7 corrected for age and surgical margins indicated that the higher risk of dying of MCT was associated with MCM7 > 0.18 (Hazard Ration [HR] 14.7; P<0.001) followed by MI > 5 (HR 13.9; P<0.001) and Ki67 > 0.018 (HR 8.9; P<0.001). Concluding, the present study confirmed that MCM7 is an excellent prognostic marker in cutaneous MCTs being able to divide Patnaik intermediate grade tumours in two categories with different prognosis. Ki67 was equally good confirming its value as a prognostic marker in intermediate grade MCTs. The mitotic index was extremely specific, but lacked of sensitivity. Interestingly, mitotic index, Ki67 and MCM7 were independent from each other suggesting that their combination would improve their individual prognostic value.

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Obiettivi. L’ecografia con mezzo di contrasto (CEUS) può fornire informazioni sulla microvascolarizzazione della parete intestinale nella malattia di Crohn. L’infiammazione della parete intestinale non sembra essere correlata alla quantità di parete vascolarizzata (studi di pattern di vascolarizzazione, SVP) ma all’intensità del flusso di parete in un determinato periodo di tempo (studi di intensità-tempo, SIT). Scopo dello studio è valutare se gli studi SVP e/o SIT mediante CEUS siano in grado di mostrare il reale grado d’infiammazione della parete vascolare e se possano predire l’attività di malattia a 3 mesi. Materiali e metodi: 30 pazienti con malattia di Crohn venivano sottoposti a SVP e SIT mediante CEUS e venivano rivisti dopo 3 mesi. L’eCografia era eseguita con uno strumento dedicato con un software particolare per il calcolo delle curve intensità-tempo e con l’ausilio di un mezzo di contrasto (Sonovue). L’analisi quantitativa consisteva nella misura dell’area sotto la curva (AUC) (con cut-off tra malattia attiva e inattiva di 15) e di un intensità media (IM) con un cut-off di 10. Tutti gli esami venivano registrati e analizzati in modo digitale. Risultati: A T0: CDAI era inferiore a 150 in 22 pazienti e superiore a 150 in 8 pazienti; a T3: CDAI era inferiore a 150 in 19 pazienti e superiore a 150 in 11 pazienti. A T0 sia la CEUS SPV che la SIT evidenziavano bassa specificità, accuratezza diagnostica e valore predittivo negativo; a T3 la CEUS SVP mostrava bassa sensibilità e accuratezza diagnostica rispetto alla SIT che era in grado, in tutti i casi tranne uno, di predire l’attività clinica di malattia a tre mesi. Conclusioni: in questo studio, la CEUS-SIT ha mostrato buona accuratezza diagnostica nel predire l’attività clinica di malattia nel follow-up a breve termine di pazienti con malattia di Crohn.

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Introduction: Antiviral therapy can prevent disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C . Transient Elastografy (TE; Fibroscan) is an accurate surrogate marker to liver fibrosis, by measuring liver stiffness (LS). LS decrease has been associated with sustained virologic response (SVR). Aim: to assess the changes of LS measurments in CHC patients during and one year after Interferon (IFN)-based antiviral therapy (IFN/ribavirin) or (telaprevir+IFN/ribavirin). Methods: consecutive 69 CHC patients (53.6% females, mean age 57.9 ± 11.4) who underwent antiviral therapy for at least 20 weeks were enrolled. LS was measured using FibroScan at baseline, after three months, at the end of treatment and one year after treatment discontinuation. Fibrosis was graded using METAVIR score. Results: twenty patients treated with triple therapy and 49 with IFN/ribavirin. Fifty patients had SVR and 19 were non-responders. SVR patients: F0-F1, F2 and F3 patients (39.1%, 7.2% and 17.4%; respectively) showed no significant LS decrease (P= 0.186, 0.068 and 0.075; respectively). Conversely, in F4 patients (36.2%) LS was significantly decreased (P=0.015) after one year of treatment completion. In all patients with no SVR, no significant decrease in LS was observed. Interestingly, all Patients with F4 fibrosis (even non-responders) showed an initial significant decrease in LS (P=0.024) at 3 months after the start of treatment. However, this decrease was not predictive of SVR; area under the ROC curve 0.369 (CI %: 0.145-0.592) P= 0.265. Conclusion: Our study showed that initial decrease in LSM, especially in patients with higher baseline fibrosis score is unlikely to predict an SVR. In addition no significant association was found between clinical or virological parameters and fibrosis improvement. Further studies are needed to delineate the most appropriate clinical scenarios for the LSM by Fibroscan in chronic hepatitis C and its role in monitoring the response to antiviral treatment.