Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Analysis of cumulative effects of multiple stressors on saltmarshes and consideration of management options

Natural systems face pressures exerted by natural physical-chemical forcings and a myriad of co-occurring human stressors that may interact to cause larger than expected effects, thereby presenting a challenge to ecosystem management. This thesis aimed to develop new information that can contribute to reduce the existing knowledge gaps hampering the holistic management of multiple stressors. I undertook a review of the state-of-the-art methods to detect, quantify and predict stressor interactions, identifying techniques that could be applied in this thesis research. Then, I conducted a systematic review of saltmarsh multiple stressor studies in conjunction with a multiple stressor mapping exercise for the study system in order to infer potential important synergistic stressor interactions. This analysis identified key stressors that are affecting the study system, but also pointed to data gaps in terms of driver and pressure data and raised issues for potentially overlooked stressors. Using field mesocosms, I explored how a local stressor (nutrient availability) affects the responses of saltmarsh vegetation to a global stressor (increased inundation) in different soil types. Results indicate that saltmarsh vegetation would be more drastically affected by increased inundation in low than in medium organic matter soils, and especially in estuaries already under high nutrient availability. In another field experiment, I examined the challenges of managing co-occurring and potentially interacting local stressors on saltmarsh vegetation: recreational trampling and smothering by deposition of excess macroalgal wrack due to high nutrient loads. Trampling and wrack prevention had interacting effects, causing non-linear responses of the vegetation to simulated management of these stressors, such that vegetation recovered only in those treatments simulating the combined prevention of both stressors. During this research I detected, using molecular genetic methods, a widespread presence of S. anglica (and to a lesser extent S. townsendii), two previously unrecorded non-native Spartinas in the study areas.

Molecular basis of Osteoarthritis and aspects of cellular senescence in disease

The aim of this study is to investigate on some molecular mechanisms contributing to the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis (OA) and in particular to the senescence of articular chondrocytes. It is focused on understanding molecular events downstream GSK3β inactivation or dependent on the activity of IKKα, a kinase that does not belong to the phenotype of healthy articular chondrocytes. Moreover, the potential of some nutraceuticals on scavenging ROS thus reducing oxidative stress, DNA damage, and chondrocyte senescence has been evaluated in vitro. The in vitro LiCl-mediated GSK3β inactivation resulted in increased mitochondrial ROS production, that impacted on cellular proliferation, with S-phase transient arrest, increased SA-β gal and PAS staining, cell size and granularity. ROS are also responsible for the of increased expression of two major oxidative lesions, i.e. 1) double strand breaks, tagged by γH2AX, that associates with activation of GADD45β and p21, and 2) 8-oxo-dG adducts, that associate with increased IKKα and MMP-10 expression. The pattern observed in vitro was confirmed on cartilage from OA patients. IKKa dramatically affects the intensity of the DNA damage response induced by oxidative stress (H2O2 exposure) in chondrocytes, as evidenced by silencing strategies. At early time point an higher percentage of γH2AX positive cells and more foci in IKKa-KD cells are observed, but IKKa KD cells proved to almost completely recover after 24 hours respect to their controls. Telomere attrition is also reduced in IKKaKD. Finally MSH6 and MLH1 genes are up-regulated in IKKαKD cells but not in control cells. Hydroxytyrosol and Spermidine have a great ROS scavenging capacity in vitro. Both treatments revert the H2O2 dependent increase of cell death and γH2AX-foci formation and senescence, suggesting the ability of increasing cell homeostasis. These data indicate that nutraceuticals represent a great challenge in OA management, for both therapeutical and preventive purposes.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.