Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Controlled reproduction in Anguilla anguilla (L.): advanced studies on broodstock management, spawning techniques and system design for artificial seed production.

The thesis aims to expose the advances achieved in the practices of captive breeding of the European eel (Anguilla anguilla). Aspects investigated concern both approaches livestock (breeding selection, response to hormonal stimulation, reproductive performance, incubation of eggs) and physiological aspects (endocrine plasma profiles of players), as well as engineering aspects. Studies conducted on various populations of wild eel have shown that the main determining factor in the selection of wild females destined to captive breeding must be the Silver Index which may determine the stage of pubertal development. The hormonal induction protocol adopted, with increasing doses of carp pituitary extract, it has proven useful to ovarian development, with a synchronization effect that is positively reflected on egg production. The studies on the effects of photoperiod show how the condition of total darkness can positively influence practices of reproductions in captivity. The effects of photoperiod were also investigated at the physiological level, observing the plasma levels of steroids ( E2, T) and thyroid hormones (T3 and T4) and the expression in the liver of vitellogenin (vtg1 and vtg2) and estradiol membrane receptor (ESR1). From the comparison between spontaneous deposition and insemination techniques through the stripping is inferred as the first ports to a better qualitative and quantitative yield in the production of eggs capable of being fertilized, also the presence of a percentage of oocytes completely transparent can be used to obtain eggs at a good rate of fertility. Finally, the design and implementation of a system for recirculating aquaculture suited to meet the needs of species-specific eel showed how to improve the reproductive results, it would be preferable to adopt low-flow and low density incubation.

The medical management after surgery for advanced heart failure

The aim of the Research of this Ph D Project is to improve the medical management after surgery for advanced heart failure, both after left ventricular assist devices (LVAD) implantation, and after heart transplantation in the long-term. Regarding heart transplantation (HTx), the Research Project is focused on diagnostics, classification, prevention and treatment of cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), and on treatment of post-HTx cancers; the results are presented in the first part of this Thesis. In particular, the main aspect investigated are the prognostic role of information derived from coronary angiography, coronary tomography and intravascular ultrasound, and the different sensitivity of these techniques in predicting outcomes and in diagnosing CAV. Moreover, the role of mTOR inhibitors on CAV prevention or treatment is investigated, both alone and in combination with different anti-CMV prevention strategies, as well as the impact of mTOR inhibitors on clinical outcomes in the long term. Regarding LVAD, the main focus is on the role of transthoracic echocardiography in the management of patients with a continuous-flow, centrifugal, intrapericardial pump (HVAD, Heartware); this section is reported in the second part of this Thesis. The main aspects investigated are the use of echocardiography in patients with HVAD device and its interaction with the information derived from pump curves' analysis in predicting aortic valve opening status, a surrogate of the condition of support provided by the LVAD.

Neutronics analyses for fast spectrum nuclear systems and scenario studies for advanced nuclear fuel cycles

The present PhD thesis summarizes the three-years study about the neutronic investigation of a new concept nuclear reactor aiming at the optimization and the sustainable management of nuclear fuel in a possible European scenario. A new generation nuclear reactor for the nuclear reinassance is indeed desired by the actual industrialized world, both for the solution of the energetic question arising from the continuously growing energy demand together with the corresponding reduction of oil availability, and the environment question for a sustainable energy source free from Long Lived Radioisotopes and therefore geological repositories. Among the Generation IV candidate typologies, the Lead Fast Reactor concept has been pursued, being the one top rated in sustainability. The European Lead-cooled SYstem (ELSY) has been at first investigated. The neutronic analysis of the ELSY core has been performed via deterministic analysis by means of the ERANOS code, in order to retrieve a stable configuration for the overall design of the reactor. Further analyses have been carried out by means of the Monte Carlo general purpose transport code MCNP, in order to check the former one and to define an exact model of the system. An innovative system of absorbers has been conceptualized and designed for both the reactivity compensation and regulation of the core due to cycle swing, as well as for safety in order to guarantee the cold shutdown of the system in case of accident. Aiming at the sustainability of nuclear energy, the steady-state nuclear equilibrium has been investigated and generalized into the definition of the ``extended'' equilibrium state. According to this, the Adiabatic Reactor Theory has been developed, together with a New Paradigm for Nuclear Power: in order to design a reactor that does not exchange with the environment anything valuable (thus the term ``adiabatic''), in the sense of both Plutonium and Minor Actinides, it is required indeed to revert the logical design scheme of nuclear cores, starting from the definition of the equilibrium composition of the fuel and submitting to the latter the whole core design. The New Paradigm has been applied then to the core design of an Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor complying with the ELSY overall system layout. A complete core characterization has been done in order to asses criticality and power flattening; a preliminary evaluation of the main safety parameters has been also done to verify the viability of the system. Burn up calculations have been then performed in order to investigate the operating cycle for the Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor; the fuel performances have been therefore extracted and inserted in a more general analysis for an European scenario. The present nuclear reactors fleet has been modeled and its evolution simulated by means of the COSI code in order to investigate the materials fluxes to be managed in the European region. Different plausible scenarios have been identified to forecast the evolution of the European nuclear energy production, including the one involving the introduction of Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactors, and compared to better analyze the advantages introduced by the adoption of new concept reactors. At last, since both ELSY and the ALFR represent new concept systems based upon innovative solutions, the neutronic design of a demonstrator reactor has been carried out: such a system is intended to prove the viability of technology to be implemented in the First-of-a-Kind industrial power plant, with the aim at attesting the general strategy to use, to the largest extent. It was chosen then to base the DEMO design upon a compromise between demonstration of developed technology and testing of emerging technology in order to significantly subserve the purpose of reducing uncertainties about construction and licensing, both validating ELSY/ALFR main features and performances, and to qualify numerical codes and tools.

Spectrum Management and Cognitive Radios

The ever increasing demand for new services from users who want high-quality broadband services while on the move, is straining the efficiency of current spectrum allocation paradigms, leading to an overall feeling of spectrum scarcity. In order to circumvent this problem, two possible solutions are being investigated: (i) implementing new technologies capable of accessing the temporarily/locally unused bands, without interfering with the licensed services, like Cognitive Radios; (ii) release some spectrum bands thanks to new services providing higher spectral efficiency, e.g., DVB-T, and allocate them to new wireless systems. These two approaches are promising, but also pose novel coexistence and interference management challenges to deal with. In particular, the deployment of devices such as Cognitive Radio, characterized by the inherent unplanned, irregular and random locations of the network nodes, require advanced mathematical techniques in order to explicitly model their spatial distribution. In such context, the system performance and optimization are strongly dependent on this spatial configuration. On the other hand, allocating some released spectrum bands to other wireless services poses severe coexistence issues with all the pre-existing services on the same or adjacent spectrum bands. In this thesis, these methodologies for better spectrum usage are investigated. In particular, using Stochastic Geometry theory, a novel mathematical framework is introduced for cognitive networks, providing a closed-form expression for coverage probability and a single-integral form for average downlink rate and Average Symbol Error Probability. Then, focusing on more regulatory aspects, interference challenges between DVB-T and LTE systems are analysed proposing a versatile methodology for their proper coexistence. Moreover, the studies performed inside the CEPT SE43 working group on the amount of spectrum potentially available to Cognitive Radios and an analysis of the Hidden Node problem are provided. Finally, a study on the extension of cognitive technologies to Hybrid Satellite Terrestrial Systems is proposed.

A regional environmental accounting matrix and integrated environmental economic analyses to support regional planning

This research deals with the deepening and use of an environmental accounting matrix in Emilia-Romagna, RAMEA air emissions (regional NAMEA), carried out by the Regional Environment Agency (Arpa) in an European project. After a depiction of the international context regarding the widespread needing to integrate economic indicators and go beyond conventional reporting system, this study explains the structure, update and development of the tool. The overall aim is to outline the matrix for environmental assessments of regional plans, draw up sustainable reports and monitor effects of regional policies in a sustainable development perspective. The work focused on an application of a Shift-Share model, on the integration with eco-taxes, industrial waste production, energy consumptions, on applications of the extended RAMEA as a policy tool, following Eurostat guidelines. The common thread is the eco-efficiency (economic-environmental efficiency) index. The first part, in English, treats the methodology used to build a more complete tool; in the second part RAMEA has been applied on two regional case studies, in Italian, to support decision makers regarding Strategic Environmental Assessments’ processes (2001/42/EC). The aim is to support an evidence-based policy making by integrating sustainable development concerns at all levels. The first case study regards integrated environmental-economic analyses in support to the SEA of the Regional Waste management plan. For the industrial waste production an extended and updated RAMEA has been developed as a useful policy tool, to help in analysing and monitoring the state of environmental-economic performances. The second case study deals with the environmental report for the SEA of the Regional Program concerning productive activities. RAMEA has been applied aiming to an integrated environmental-economic analysis of the context, to investigate the performances of the regional production chains and to depict and monitor the area where the program should be carried out, from an integrated environmental-economic perspective.

Code synchronization and interference management techniques for satellite navigation and communications

This thesis collects the outcomes of a Ph.D. course in Telecommunications engineering and it is focused on enabling techniques for Spread Spectrum (SS) navigation and communication satellite systems. It provides innovations for both interference management and code synchronization techniques. These two aspects are critical for modern navigation and communication systems and constitute the common denominator of the work. The thesis is organized in two parts: the former deals with interference management. We have proposed a novel technique for the enhancement of the sensitivity level of an advanced interference detection and localization system operating in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) bands, which allows the identification of interfering signals received with power even lower than the GNSS signals. Moreover, we have introduced an effective cancellation technique for signals transmitted by jammers, exploiting their repetitive characteristics, which strongly reduces the interference level at the receiver. The second part, deals with code synchronization. More in detail, we have designed the code synchronization circuit for a Telemetry, Tracking and Control system operating during the Launch and Early Orbit Phase; the proposed solution allows to cope with the very large frequency uncertainty and dynamics characterizing this scenario, and performs the estimation of the code epoch, of the carrier frequency and of the carrier frequency variation rate. Furthermore, considering a generic pair of circuits performing code acquisition, we have proposed a comprehensive framework for the design and the analysis of the optimal cooperation procedure, which minimizes the time required to accomplish synchronization. The study results particularly interesting since it enables the reduction of the code acquisition time without increasing the computational complexity. Finally, considering a network of collaborating navigation receivers, we have proposed an innovative cooperative code acquisition scheme, which allows exploit the shared code epoch information between neighbor nodes, according to the Peer-to-Peer paradigm.

Advanced modelling of time domain electromagnetic data with updated hydrogeological interpretations

Several countries have acquired, over the past decades, large amounts of area covering Airborne Electromagnetic data. Contribution of airborne geophysics has dramatically increased for both groundwater resource mapping and management proving how those systems are appropriate for large-scale and efficient groundwater surveying. We start with processing and inversion of two AEM dataset from two different systems collected over the Spiritwood Valley Aquifer area, Manitoba, Canada respectively, the AeroTEM III (commissioned by the Geological Survey of Canada in 2010) and the “Full waveform VTEM” dataset, collected and tested over the same survey area, during the fall 2011. We demonstrate that in the presence of multiple datasets, either AEM and ground data, due processing, inversion, post-processing, data integration and data calibration is the proper approach capable of providing reliable and consistent resistivity models. Our approach can be of interest to many end users, ranging from Geological Surveys, Universities to Private Companies, which are often proprietary of large geophysical databases to be interpreted for geological and\or hydrogeological purposes. In this study we deeply investigate the role of integration of several complimentary types of geophysical data collected over the same survey area. We show that data integration can improve inversions, reduce ambiguity and deliver high resolution results. We further attempt to use the final, most reliable output resistivity models as a solid basis for building a knowledge-driven 3D geological voxel-based model. A voxel approach allows a quantitative understanding of the hydrogeological setting of the area, and it can be further used to estimate the aquifers volumes (i.e. potential amount of groundwater resources) as well as hydrogeological flow model prediction. In addition, we investigated the impact of an AEM dataset towards hydrogeological mapping and 3D hydrogeological modeling, comparing it to having only a ground based TEM dataset and\or to having only boreholes data.

Data management and data analysis in the large European projects GEHA (GEnetics of Healthy Aging) and NU-AGE (NUtrition and AGEing): a bioinformatic approach

The aging process is characterized by the progressive fitness decline experienced at all the levels of physiological organization, from single molecules up to the whole organism. Studies confirmed inflammaging, a chronic low-level inflammation, as a deeply intertwined partner of the aging process, which may provide the “common soil” upon which age-related diseases develop and flourish. Thus, albeit inflammation per se represents a physiological process, it can rapidly become detrimental if it goes out of control causing an excess of local and systemic inflammatory response, a striking risk factor for the elderly population. Developing interventions to counteract the establishment of this state is thus a top priority. Diet, among other factors, represents a good candidate to regulate inflammation. Building on top of this consideration, the EU project NU-AGE is now trying to assess if a Mediterranean diet, fortified for the elderly population needs, may help in modulating inflammaging. To do so, NU-AGE enrolled a total of 1250 subjects, half of which followed a 1-year long diet, and characterized them by mean of the most advanced –omics and non –omics analyses. The aim of this thesis was the development of a solid data management pipeline able to efficiently cope with the results of these assays, which are now flowing inside a centralized database, ready to be used to test the most disparate scientific hypotheses. At the same time, the work hereby described encompasses the data analysis of the GEHA project, which was focused on identifying the genetic determinants of longevity, with a particular focus on developing and applying a method for detecting epistatic interactions in human mtDNA. Eventually, in an effort to propel the adoption of NGS technologies in everyday pipeline, we developed a NGS variant calling pipeline devoted to solve all the sequencing-related issues of the mtDNA.

Development and Validation of a Model-Based Combustion Controller for Water Injection Management

This manuscript reports the overall development of a Ph.D. research project during the “Mechanics and advanced engineering sciences” course at the Department of Industrial Engineering of the University of Bologna. The project is focused on the development of a combustion control system for an innovative Spark Ignited engine layout. In details, the controller is oriented to manage a prototypal engine equipped with a Port Water Injection system. The water injection technology allows an increment of combustion efficiency due to the knock mitigation effect that permits to keep the combustion phasing closer to the optimal position with respect to the traditional layout. At the beginning of the project, the effects and the possible benefits achievable by water injection have been investigated by a focused experimental campaign. Then the data obtained by combustion analysis have been processed to design a control-oriented combustion model. The model identifies the correlation between Spark Advance, combustion phasing and injected water mass, and two different strategies are presented, both based on an analytic and semi-empirical approach and therefore compatible with a real-time application. The model has been implemented in a combustion controller that manages water injection to reach the best achievable combustion efficiency while keeping knock levels under a pre-established threshold. Three different versions of the algorithm are described in detail. This controller has been designed and pre-calibrated in a software-in-the-loop environment and later an experimental validation has been performed with a rapid control prototyping approach to highlight the performance of the system on real set-up. To further make the strategy implementable on an onboard application, an estimation algorithm of combustion phasing, necessary for the controller, has been developed during the last phase of the PhD Course, based on accelerometric signals.

Analytics and Methods for Logistic System Design and Operations Management

Analytics is the technology working with the manipulation of data to produce information able to change the world we live every day. Analytics have been largely used within the last decade to cluster people’s behaviour to predict their preferences of items to buy, music to listen, movies to watch and even electoral preference. The most advanced companies succeded in controlling people’s behaviour using analytics. Despite the evidence of the super-power of analytics, they are rarely applied to the big data collected within supply chain systems (i.e. distribution network, storage systems and production plants). This PhD thesis explores the fourth research paradigm (i.e. the generation of knowledge from data) applied to supply chain system design and operations management. An ontology defining the entities and the metrics of supply chain systems is used to design data structures for data collection in supply chain systems. The consistency of this data is provided by mathematical demonstrations inspired by the factory physics theory. The availability, quantity and quality of the data within these data structures define different decision patterns. Ten decision patterns are identified, and validated on-field, to address ten different class of design and control problems in the field of supply chain systems research.

Environmental accounting and reporting in Italian local governments: a longitudinal analysis of changes in context, content and process

This research aims at contributing to a better understanding of changes in local governments’ accounting and reporting practices. Particularly, ‘why’, ‘what’ and ‘how’ environmental aspects are included and the significance of changes across time. It adopts an interpretative approach to conduct a longitudinal analysis of case studies. Pettigrew and Whipp’s framework on context, content and process is used as a lens to distinguish changes under each dimension and analyse their interconnections. Data is collected from official documents and triangulated with semi-structured interviews. The legal framework defines as boundaries of the accounting information the territory under local governments’ jurisdiction and their immediate surrounding area. Organisational environmental performance and externalities are excluded from the requirements. An interplay between the local outer context, political commitment and organisational culture justifies the implementation of changes beyond what is regulated and the implementation of transformational changes. Local governments engage in international networks to gain access to funding and implement changes, leading to adopting the dominant environmental agenda. Key stakeholders, like citizens, are not engaged in the accounting and reporting process. Thus, there is no evidence that the environmental aspects addressed and related changes align with stakeholders’ needs and expectations, which jeopardises its significance. Findings from the current research have implications in other EU member states due to the harmonisation of accounting and reporting practices and the common practice across the EU in using external funding to conceptualise and implement changes. This implies that other local governments could also be representing a limited account related to environmental aspects.

Development of predictive energy management strategies for hybrid electric vehicles supported by connectivity

Nowadays, the spreading of the air pollution crisis enhanced by greenhouse gases emission is leading to the worsening of the global warming. In this context, the transportation sector plays a vital role, since it is responsible for a large part of carbon dioxide production. In order to address these issues, the present thesis deals with the development of advanced control strategies for the energy efficiency optimization of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), supported by the prediction of future working conditions of the powertrain. In particular, a Dynamic Programming algorithm has been developed for the combined optimization of vehicle energy and battery thermal management. At this aim, the battery temperature and the battery cooling circuit control signal have been considered as an additional state and control variables, respectively. Moreover, an adaptive equivalent consumption minimization strategy (A-ECMS) has been modified to handle zero-emission zones, where engine propulsion is not allowed. Navigation data represent an essential element in the achievement of these tasks. With this aim, a novel simulation and testing environment has been developed during the PhD research activity, as an effective tool to retrieve routing information from map service providers via vehicle-to-everything connectivity. Comparisons between the developed and the reference strategies are made, as well, in order to assess their impact on the vehicle energy consumption. All the activities presented in this doctoral dissertation have been carried out at the Green Mobility Research Lab} (GMRL), a research center resulting from the partnership between the University of Bologna and FEV Italia s.r.l., which represents the industrial partner of the research project.

Modeling and optimization techniques for advanced vehicular networking

This thesis deals with optimization techniques and modeling of vehicular networks. Thanks to the models realized with the integer linear programming (ILP) and the heuristic ones, it was possible to study the performances in 5G networks for the vehicular. Thanks to Software-defined networking (SDN) and Network functions virtualization (NFV) paradigms it was possible to study the performances of different classes of service, such as the Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communications (URLLC) class and enhanced Mobile BroadBand (eMBB) class, and how the functional split can have positive effects on network resource management. Two different protection techniques have been studied: Shared Path Protection (SPP) and Dedicated Path Protection (DPP). Thanks to these different protections, it is possible to achieve different network reliability requirements, according to the needs of the end user. Finally, thanks to a simulator developed in Python, it was possible to study the dynamic allocation of resources in a 5G metro network. Through different provisioning algorithms and different dynamic resource management techniques, useful results have been obtained for understanding the needs in the vehicular networks that will exploit 5G. Finally, two models are shown for reconfiguring backup resources when using shared resource protection.

Assessing the state of Nephrops norvegicus and management measures in the Central Adriatic Sea

Nephrops norvegicus is a sedentary bottom-dwelling crustacean that represents one of the main commercial species exploited in the Adriatic Sea (Central Mediterranean). An evaluation of the status of this important resource is thus extremely important in order to manage it in a sustainable way. The evaluation of N. norvegicus is complicated by several issues, mainly: (i) the complex biology and behaviour of the species itself, (ii) the presence of subpopulations with different biological traits within the same stock unit. Relevant concentration of N.norvegicus occurs within the Pomo/Jabuka Pits area which is characterised by peculiar oceanographic and geophysical conditions. This area represented for a long time an important fishing ground shared by Italian and Croatian fleets and recently a Fishery Restricted Area (FRA) was established there. The aim of the present study is to perform for the first time an evaluation of the status of the N.norvegicus subpopulation inhabiting the Pomo/Jabuka Pits also accounting for the possible effects on it of the management measures. To achieve this, the principal fisheryindependent and fishery-dependent dataset available for the study area were firstly analysed and then treated. Data collected by the CNR-IRBIM of Ancona through both indirect (“UWTV”) and direct (trawling) methods were refined by means of a revision of the time series and related biases, and a modelling approach accounting for environmental and fishery effects, respectively. Commercial data for both Italy and Croatia were treated in order to obtain landings and length distributions for the Pomo area only; an historical reconstruction of data starting from 1970 was carried out for both countries. The obtained information was used as input for a Bayesian length-based stock assessment model developed through the CASAL software; the flexibility of this model is recommended for N.norvegicus and similar species allowing to deal with sex- and fleet-based integrated assessment method