Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

Assessing poverty with survey data. Uni-dimensional, multidimensional and resilience poverty analysis in Kenya

Traditionally Poverty has been measured by a unique indicator, income, assuming this was the most relevant dimension of poverty. Sen’s approach has dramatically changed this idea shedding light over the existence of many more dimensions and over the multifaceted nature of poverty; poverty cannot be represented by a unique indicator that only can evaluate a specific aspect of poverty. This thesis tracks an ideal path along with the evolution of the poverty analysis. Starting from the unidimensional analysis based on income and consumptions, this research enter the world of multidimensional analysis. After reviewing the principal approaches, the Foster and Alkire method is critically analyzed and implemented over data from Kenya. A step further is moved in the third part of the thesis, introducing a new approach to multidimensional poverty assessment: the resilience analysis.

Development of new tools and devices for CMB and foreground data analysis and future experiments

The discovery of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) radiation in 1965 is one of the fundamental milestones supporting the Big Bang theory. The CMB is one of the most important source of information in cosmology. The excellent accuracy of the recent CMB data of WMAP and Planck satellites confirmed the validity of the standard cosmological model and set a new challenge for the data analysis processes and their interpretation. In this thesis we deal with several aspects and useful tools of the data analysis. We focus on their optimization in order to have a complete exploitation of the Planck data and contribute to the final published results. The issues investigated are: the change of coordinates of CMB maps using the HEALPix package, the problem of the aliasing effect in the generation of low resolution maps, the comparison of the Angular Power Spectrum (APS) extraction performances of the optimal QML method, implemented in the code called BolPol, and the pseudo-Cl method, implemented in Cromaster. The QML method has been then applied to the Planck data at large angular scales to extract the CMB APS. The same method has been applied also to analyze the TT parity and the Low Variance anomalies in the Planck maps, showing a consistent deviation from the standard cosmological model, the possible origins for this results have been discussed. The Cromaster code instead has been applied to the 408 MHz and 1.42 GHz surveys focusing on the analysis of the APS of selected regions of the synchrotron emission. The new generation of CMB experiments will be dedicated to polarization measurements, for which are necessary high accuracy devices for separating the polarizations. Here a new technology, called Photonic Crystals, is exploited to develop a new polarization splitter device and its performances are compared to the devices used nowadays.

Genus Bifidobacterium: taxonomy studies and gene expression analysis on folate pathway

Folates (vitamin B9) are essential water soluble vitamins, whose deficiency in humans may contribute to the onset of several diseases, such as anaemia, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, neurological problems as well as defects in embryonic development. Human and other mammals are unable to synthesize ex novo folate obtaining it from exogenous sources, via intestinal absorption. Recently the gut microbiota has been identified as an important source of folates and the selection and use of folate producing microorganisms represents an innovative strategy to increase human folate levels. The aim of this thesis was to gain a fundamental understanding of folate metabolism in Bifidobacterium adolescentis. The work was subdivided in three main phases, also aimed to solve different problems encountered working with Bifidobacterium strains. First, a new identification method (based on PCR-RFLP of hsp60 gene) was specifically developed to identify Bifidobacterium strains. Secondly, Bifidobacterium adolescentis biodiversity was explored in order to recognize representing strains of this species to be screened for their folate production ability. Results showed that this species is characterized by a wide variability and support the idea that a possible new taxonomic re-organization would be required. Finally B. adolescentis folate metabolism was studied using a double approach. A quantitative analysis of folate content was complemented by the examination of expression levels of genes involved in folate related pathways. For the normalization process, required to increase the robustness of the qRT-PCR analysis, an appropriate set of reference genes was tested using two different algorithms. Results demonstrate that B.adolescentis strains may represent an endogenous source of natural folate and they could be used to fortify fermented dairy products. This bio-fortification strategy presents many advantages for the consumer, providing native folate forms more bio-available, and not implicated in the discussed controversy concerning the safety of high intake of synthetic folic acid.