La Previsione dei Consumi Elettrici nel Mercato Energetico Italiano : un nuovo modello empirico con struttura triangolare

L'obiettivo principale della tesi è lo sviluppo di un modello empirico previsivo di breve periodo che sia in grado di offrire previsioni precise ed affidabili dei consumi di energia elettrica su base oraria del mercato italiano. Questo modello riassume le conoscenze acquisite e l'esperienza fatta durante la mia attuale attività lavorativa presso il Romagna Energia S.C.p.A., uno dei maggiori player italiani del mercato energetico. Durante l'ultimo ventennio vi sono stati drastici cambiamenti alla struttura del mercato elettrico in tutto il mondo. Nella maggior parte dei paesi industrializzati il settore dell'energia elettrica ha modificato la sua originale conformazione di monopolio in mercato competitivo liberalizzato, dove i consumatori hanno la libertà di scegliere il proprio fornitore. La modellazione e la previsione della serie storica dei consumi di energia elettrica hanno quindi assunto un ruolo molto importante nel mercato, sia per i policy makers che per gli operatori. Basandosi sulla letteratura già esistente, sfruttando le conoscenze acquisite 'sul campo' ed alcune intuizioni, si è analizzata e sviluppata una struttura modellistica di tipo triangolare, del tutto innovativa in questo ambito di ricerca, suggerita proprio dal meccanismo fisico attraverso il quale l'energia elettrica viene prodotta e consumata nell'arco delle 24 ore. Questo schema triangolare può essere visto come un particolare modello VARMA e possiede una duplice utilità, dal punto di vista interpretativo del fenomeno da una parte, e previsivo dall'altra. Vengono inoltre introdotti nuovi leading indicators legati a fattori meteorologici, con l'intento di migliorare le performance previsive dello stesso. Utilizzando quindi la serie storica dei consumi di energia elettrica italiana, dall'1 Marzo 2010 al 30 Marzo 2012, sono stati stimati i parametri del modello dello schema previsivo proposto e valutati i risultati previsivi per il periodo dall'1 Aprile 2012 al 30 Aprile 2012, confrontandoli con quelli forniti da fonti ufficiali.

Strategies for lowering the environmental impact of different electrochemical energy storage system

The continuous growth of global population brings an exponential increase on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission in the atmosphere contributing to the increase of the planet temperature. Therefore, it is mandatory to adopt renewable energy production systems like photovoltaic or wind power: unfortunately, the main limit of these technologies is the natural intermittence of the energy sources that limits their applicability. The key enabling technology for a widespread usage of clean power sources are electrochemical energy storage systems, most commonly known as batteries. Batteries will enable the storage of energy during overproduction period and the release during low production period stabilizing the power outcome, allowing the connection to the main grid and increasing the applicability of renewable energy sources. Despite the high number of benefits that the widespread use of batteries will bring, starting from the reduction of CO2 emitted in the atmosphere, it is necessary also to take care of the environmental impact of processes and materials used for the production of electrochemical storage systems. In addition, there are many different battery systems, with different chemistries and designs that require specific strategies. Nowadays, the most part of the materials and chemicals used for battery production are toxic for humans and the environment. For this reason, this Ph.D. thesis addresses the challenging scope of lowering the environmental impact of manufacturing processes of different electrochemical energy storage systems using natural derived or low carbon footprint materials while increasing the performances with respect to commercial devices. The activities carried out during my Ph.D. cover a high number of different electrochemical storage systems involving a wide range of electrochemical processes from capacitive to faradic. New materials, different production processes and new battery design, all in view of sustainability and low environmental impact, increased the innovative and challenging aspects of this work.

Development of processes for the valorization of lignocellulosic biomass based on renewable energies

The world grapples with climate change from fossil fuel reliance, prompting Europe to pivot to renewable energy. Among renewables, biomass is a bioenergy and bio-carbon source, used to create high-value biomolecules, replacing fossil-based products. Alkyl levulinates, derived from biomass, hold promise as bio-additives and biofuels, especially via acid solvolysis of hexose sugars, necessitating further exploration. Alkyl levulinate's potential extends to converting into γ-valerolactone (GVL), a bio-solvent produced via hydrogenation with molecular-hydrogen. Hydrogen, a key reagent and energy carrier, aids renewable energy integration. This thesis delves into a biorefinery system study, aligning with sustainability goals, integrating biomass valorization, energy production, and hydrogen generation. It investigates optimizing technologies for butyl levulinate production and subsequent GVL hydrogenation. Sustainability remains pivotal, reflecting the global shift towards renewable and carbon bio-resources. The research initially focuses on experimenting with the optimal technology for producing butyl levulinate from biomass-derived hexose fructose. It examines the solvolysis process, investigating optimal conditions, kinetic modeling, and the impact of solvents on fructose conversion. The subsequent part concentrates on the technological aspect of hydrogenating butyl levulinate into GVL. It includes conceptual design, simulation, and optimization of the fructose-to-GVL process scheme based on process intensification. In the final part, the study applies the process to a real case study in Normandy, France, adapting it to local biomass availability and wind energy. It defines a methodology for designing and integrating the energy-supply system, evaluating different scenarios. Sustainability assessment using economic, environmental, and social indicators culminates in an overall sustainability index, indicating scenarios integrating the GVL biorefinery system with wind power and hydrogen energy storage as promising due to high profitability and reduced environmental impact. Sensitivity analyses validate the methodology's reliability, potentially extending to other technological systems.

Grid Connected Doubly Fed Induction Generator Based Wind Turbine under LVRT

This project concentrates on the Low Voltage Ride Through (LVRT) capability of Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind turbine. The main attention in the project is, therefore, drawn to the control of the DFIG wind turbine and of its power converter and to the ability to protect itself without disconnection during grid faults. It provides also an overview on the interaction between variable speed DFIG wind turbines and the power system subjected to disturbances, such as short circuit faults. The dynamic model of DFIG wind turbine includes models for both mechanical components as well as for all electrical components, controllers and for the protection device of DFIG necessary during grid faults. The viewpoint of this project is to carry out different simulations to provide insight and understanding of the grid fault impact on both DFIG wind turbines and on the power system itself. The dynamic behavior of DFIG wind turbines during grid faults is simulated and assessed by using a transmission power system generic model developed and delivered by Transmission System Operator in the power system simulation toolbox Digsilent, Matlab/Simulink and PLECS.

Essays in macroeconomics: insurance, market power, and inequality

This thesis investigates a broad range of topics related to insurance, market power, and inequality, both from an empirical and a theoretical perspective. In the first chapter, I exploit the significant heterogeneity of the shocks hitting Ethiopian households and their heterogeneous response, using relatively recent data (World Bank's LSMS-ISA for households and satellite data for weather shocks). On the one hand, households seem able to insure against most idiosyncratic and mild adverse weather shocks. On the other hand, vulnerability to stronger weather shocks (especially droughts) remains elevated. In the second chapter, starting from firms' individual data, aggregate trends about industry concentration and other proxies of competition are built. This chapter is part of a larger project conducted at the OECD in the Productivity Innovation and Entrepreneurship Division of the STI Directorate The project innovates on the existing literature in its measurement of concentration, aimed at reflecting markets more accurately. On average, aggregate concentration is found to be increasing. In the third chapter, which only lays out some preliminary steps of a more extensive inquiry, I model the heterogeneous effects of aggregate technological progress on individual economic agents and show how this can affect aggregate inequality and other aggregate indicators studied in the macroeconomics literature, such as the entrepreneurship rate and the overall firm distribution. It should be noted, however, that this note is a simple exposition of a possible modelling device rather than a full explanation of these phenomena.

Development and characterization of cutting-edge equipment for EMC measurements and advanced power line filter design

This Doctoral Thesis aims at studying, developing, and characterizing cutting edge equipment for EMC measurements and proposing innovative and advanced power line filter design techniques. This document summarizes a three-year work, is strictly industry oriented and relies on EMC standards and regulations. It contains the main results, findings, and effort with the purpose of bringing innovative contributions at the scientific community. Conducted emissions interferences are usually suppressed with power line filters. These filters are composed by common mode chokes, X capacitors and Y capacitors in order to mitigate both the differential mode and common mode noise, which compose the overall conducted emissions. However, even at present days, available power line filter design techniques show several disadvantages. First of all, filters are designed to be implemented in ideal 50 Ω systems, condition which is far away from reality. Then, the attenuation introduced by the filter for common or differential mode noise is analyzed independently, without considering the possible mode conversion that can be produced by impedance mismatches, or asymmetries in either the power line filter itself or the equipment under test. Ultimately, the instrumentation used to perform conducted emissions measurement is, in most cases, not adequate. All these factors lead to an inaccurate design, contributing at increasing the size of the filter, making it more expensive and less performant than it should be.