Slope stability analysis by multi-temporal DEMs and 3D modelling: The 2002 and 2007 Stromboli landslide events

Natural hazard related to the volcanic activity represents a potential risk factor, particularly in the vicinity of human settlements. Besides to the risk related to the explosive and effusive activity, the instability of volcanic edifices may develop into large landslides often catastrophically destructive, as shown by the collapse of the northern flank of Mount St. Helens in 1980. A combined approach was applied to analyse slope failures that occurred at Stromboli volcano. SdF slope stability was evaluated by using high-resolution multi-temporal DTMMs and performing limit equilibrium stability analyses. High-resolution topographical data collected with remote sensing techniques and three-dimensional slope stability analysis play a key role in understanding instability mechanism and the related risks. Analyses carried out on the 2002–2003 and 2007 Stromboli eruptions, starting from high-resolution data acquired through airborne remote sensing surveys, permitted the estimation of the lava volumes emplaced on the SdF slope and contributed to the investigation of the link between magma emission and slope instabilities. Limit Equilibrium analyses were performed on the 2001 and 2007 3D models, in order to simulate the slope behavior before 2002-2003 landslide event and after the 2007 eruption. Stability analyses were conducted to understand the mechanisms that controlled the slope deformations which occurred shortly after the 2007 eruption onset, involving the upper part of slope. Limit equilibrium analyses applied to both cases yielded results which are congruent with observations and monitoring data. The results presented in this work undoubtedly indicate that hazard assessment for the island of Stromboli should take into account the fact that a new magma intrusion could lead to further destabilisation of the slope, which may be more significant than the one recently observed because it will affect an already disarranged deposit and fractured and loosened crater area. The two-pronged approach based on the analysis of 3D multi-temporal mapping datasets and on the application of LE methods contributed to better understanding volcano flank behaviour and to be prepared to undertake actions aimed at risk mitigation.

Testing future weak lensing surveys through simulations of observations

Weak lensing experiments such as the future ESA-accepted mission Euclid aim to measure cosmological parameters with unprecedented accuracy. It is important to assess the precision that can be obtained in these measurements by applying analysis software on mock images that contain many sources of noise present in the real data. In this Thesis, we show a method to perform simulations of observations, that produce realistic images of the sky according to characteristics of the instrument and of the survey. We then use these images to test the performances of the Euclid mission. In particular, we concentrate on the precision of the photometric redshift measurements, which are key data to perform cosmic shear tomography. We calculate the fraction of the total observed sample that must be discarded to reach the required level of precision, that is equal to 0.05(1+z) for a galaxy with measured redshift z, with different ancillary ground-based observations. The results highlight the importance of u-band observations, especially to discriminate between low (z < 0.5) and high (z ~ 3) redshifts, and the need for good observing sites, with seeing FWHM < 1. arcsec. We then construct an optimal filter to detect galaxy clusters through photometric catalogues of galaxies, and we test it on the COSMOS field, obtaining 27 lensing-confirmed detections. Applying this algorithm on mock Euclid data, we verify the possibility to detect clusters with mass above 10^14.2 solar masses with a low rate of false detections.

Evaluation of slope stability under water and seismic load through the Minimum Lithostatic Deviation method

The main objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the methods to assess the stability of a slope. We have illustrated the principal variants of the Limit Equilibrium (LE) method found in literature, focalizing our attention on the Minimum Lithostatic Deviation (MLD) method, developed by Prof. Tinti and his collaborators (e.g. Tinti and Manucci, 2006, 2008). We had two main goals: the first was to test the MLD method on some real cases. We have selected the case of the Vajont landslide with the objective to reconstruct the conditions that caused the destabilization of Mount Toc, and two sites in the Norwegian margin, where failures has not occurred recently, with the aim to evaluate the present stability state and to assess under which conditions they might be mobilized. The second goal was to study the stability charts by Taylor and by Michalowski, and to use the MLD method to investigate the correctness and adequacy of this engineering tool.

A New Prediction Model for Slope Stability Analysis

The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.

Lateral spreading and associated slope processes in fractured rock slabs

Landslides of the lateral spreading type, involving brittle geological units overlying ductile terrains, are a common occurrence in the sandstone and limestone plateaux of the northern Apennines of Italy. These instability phenomena can become particularly risky, when historical towns and cultural heritage sites built on the top of them are endangered. Neverthless, the mechanisms controlling the developing of related instabilities, i.e. toppling and rock falls, at the edges of rock plateaux are not fully understood yet. In addition, the groundwater flow path developing at the contact between the more permeable units, i.e. the jointed rock slab, and the relatively impermeable clay-rich units have not been already studied in details, even if they may play a role in this kind of instability processes, acting as eventual predisposing and/or triggering factors. Field survey, Terrestrial Laser Scanner and Close Range Photogrammetry techniques, laboratory tests on the involved materials, hydrogeological monitoring and modelling, displacements evaluation and stability analysis through continuum and discontinuum numerical codes have been performed on the San Leo case study, with the aim to bring further insights for the understanding and the assessment of the slope processes taking place in this geological context. The current research permitted to relate the aquifer behaviour of the rocky slab to slope instability processes. The aquifer hosted in the fractured slab leads to the development of perennial and ephemeral springs at the contact between the two units. The related piping erosion phenomena, together with slope processes in the clay-shales led to the progressive undermining of the slab. The cliff becomes progressively unstable due to undermining and undergoes large-scale landslides due to fall or topple.