2 resultados para Warm-moist weather
em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna
Resumo:
The quality of temperature and humidity retrievals from the infrared SEVIRI sensors on the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites is assessed by means of a one dimensional variational algorithm. The study is performed with the aim of improving the spatial and temporal resolution of available observations to feed analysis systems designed for high resolution regional scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The non-hydrostatic forecast model COSMO (COnsortium for Small scale MOdelling) in the ARPA-SIM operational configuration is used to provide background fields. Only clear sky observations over sea are processed. An optimised 1D–VAR set-up comprising of the two water vapour and the three window channels is selected. It maximises the reduction of errors in the model backgrounds while ensuring ease of operational implementation through accurate bias correction procedures and correct radiative transfer simulations. The 1D–VAR retrieval quality is firstly quantified in relative terms employing statistics to estimate the reduction in the background model errors. Additionally the absolute retrieval accuracy is assessed comparing the analysis with independent radiosonde and satellite observations. The inclusion of satellite data brings a substantial reduction in the warm and dry biases present in the forecast model. Moreover it is shown that the retrieval profiles generated by the 1D–VAR are well correlated with the radiosonde measurements. Subsequently the 1D–VAR technique is applied to two three–dimensional case–studies: a false alarm case–study occurred in Friuli–Venezia–Giulia on the 8th of July 2004 and a heavy precipitation case occurred in Emilia–Romagna region between 9th and 12th of April 2005. The impact of satellite data for these two events is evaluated in terms of increments in the integrated water vapour and saturation water vapour over the column, in the 2 meters temperature and specific humidity and in the surface temperature. To improve the 1D–VAR technique a method to calculate flow–dependent model error covariance matrices is also assessed. The approach employs members from an ensemble forecast system generated by perturbing physical parameterisation schemes inside the model. The improved set–up applied to the case of 8th of July 2004 shows a substantial neutral impact.
Resumo:
Thermal infrared (IR, 10.5 – 12.5 m) images from the Meteosat Visible and Infrared Imager (MVIRI) of cold cloud episodes (cloud top brightness temperature < 241 K) are used as a proxy of precipitating clouds to derive a warm season (May-August) climatology of their coherency, duration, span, and speed over Europe and the Mediterranean. The analysis focuses over the 30°-54°N, 15°W-40°E domain in May-August 1996-2005. Harmonic analysis using discrete Fourier transforms is applied together with a statistical analysis and an investigation of the diurnal cycle. This study has the objective to make available a set of results on the propagation dynamics of the cloud systems with the aim of assist numerical modellers in improving summer convection parameterization. The zonal propagation of cold cloud systems is accompanied by a weak meridional component confined to narrow latitude belts. The persistence of cold clouds over the area evidences the role of orography, the Pyrenees, the Alps, the Balkans and Anatolia. A diurnal oscillation is found with a maximum marking the initiation of convection in the lee of the mountains and shifting from about 1400 UTC at 40°E to 1800 UTC at 0°. A moderate eastward propagation of the frequency maximum from all mountain chains across the domain exists and the diurnal maxima are completely suppressed west of 5°W. The mean power spectrum of the cold cloud frequency distribution evidences a period of one day all over Europe disappearing over the ocean (west of 10°W). Other maxima are found in correspondence of 6 to 10 days in the longitudes from 15° W to 0° and indicate the activity of the westerlies with frontal passage over the continent. Longer periods activities (from 15 up to 30 days) were stronger around 10° W and from 5° W to 15° E and are likely related to the Madden Julian Oscillation influence. The maxima of the diurnal signal are in phase with the presence of elevated terrain and with land masses. A median zonal phase speed of 16.1 ms-1 is found for all events ≥ 1000 km and ≥ 20 h and a full set of results divided by years and recurrence categories is also presented.