Tumor burden as assessed by 18 F FDG PET scan as predictive biomarker for immune checkpoint blockers in advanced NSCLC - a multi centric study

Introduction Only a proportion of patients with advanced NSCLC benefit from Immune checkpoint blockers (ICBs). No biomarker is validated to choose between ICBs monotherapy or in combination with chemotherapy (Chemo-ICB) when PD-L1 expression is above 50%. The aim of the present study is to validate the biomarker validity of total Metabolic Tumor Volume (tMTV) as assessed by 2-deoxy-2-[18F]fluoro-d-glucose positron emission tomography ([18F]FDG-PET) Material and methods This is a multicentric retrospective study. Patients with advanced NSCLC treated with ICBs, chemotherapy plus ICBs and chemotherapy were enrolled in 12 institutions from 4 countries. Inclusion criteria was a positive PET scan performed within 42 days from treatment start. TMTV was analyzed at each center based on a 42% SUVmax threshold. High tMTV was defined ad tMTV>median Results 493 patients were included, 163 treated with ICBs alone, 236 with chemo-ICBs and 94 with CT. No correlation was found between PD-L1 expression and tMTV. Median PFS for patients with high tMTV (100.1 cm3) was 3.26 months (95% CI 1.94–6.38) vs 14.70 (95% CI 11.51–22.59) for those with low tMTV (p=0.0005). Similarly median OS for pts with high tMTV was 11.4 months (95% CI 8.42 – 19.1) vs 33.1 months for those with low tMTV (95% CI 22.59 – NA), p .00067. In chemo-ICBs treated patients no correlation was found for OS (p = 0.11) and a borderline correlation was found for PFS (p=0.059). Patients with high tMTV and PD-L1 ≥ 50% had a better PFS when treated with combination of chemotherapy and ICBs respect to ICBs alone, with 3.26 months (95% CI 1.94 – 5.79) for ICBs vs 11.94 (95% CI 5.75 – NA) for Chemo ICBs (p = 0.043). Conclusion tMTV is predictive of ICBs benefit, not to CT benefit. tMTV can help to select the best upfront strategy in patients with high tMTV.