6 resultados para Verification Bias

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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Interaction protocols establish how different computational entities can interact with each other. The interaction can be finalized to the exchange of data, as in 'communication protocols', or can be oriented to achieve some result, as in 'application protocols'. Moreover, with the increasing complexity of modern distributed systems, protocols are used also to control such a complexity, and to ensure that the system as a whole evolves with certain features. However, the extensive use of protocols has raised some issues, from the language for specifying them to the several verification aspects. Computational Logic provides models, languages and tools that can be effectively adopted to address such issues: its declarative nature can be exploited for a protocol specification language, while its operational counterpart can be used to reason upon such specifications. In this thesis we propose a proof-theoretic framework, called SCIFF, together with its extensions. SCIFF is based on Abductive Logic Programming, and provides a formal specification language with a clear declarative semantics (based on abduction). The operational counterpart is given by a proof procedure, that allows to reason upon the specifications and to test the conformance of given interactions w.r.t. a defined protocol. Moreover, by suitably adapting the SCIFF Framework, we propose solutions for addressing (1) the protocol properties verification (g-SCIFF Framework), and (2) the a-priori conformance verification of peers w.r.t. the given protocol (AlLoWS Framework). We introduce also an agent based architecture, the SCIFF Agent Platform, where the same protocol specification can be used to program and to ease the implementation task of the interacting peers.

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The humans process the numbers in a similar way to animals. There are countless studies in which similar performance between animals and humans (adults and/or children) are reported. Three models have been developed to explain the cognitive mechanisms underlying the number processing. The triple-code model (Dehaene, 1992) posits an mental number line as preferred way to represent magnitude. The mental number line has three particular effects: the distance, the magnitude and the SNARC effects. The SNARC effect shows a spatial association between number and space representations. In other words, the small numbers are related to left space while large numbers are related to right space. Recently a vertical SNARC effect has been found (Ito & Hatta, 2004; Schwarz & Keus, 2004), reflecting a space-related bottom-to-up representation of numbers. The magnitude representations horizontally and vertically could influence the subject performance in explicit and implicit digit tasks. The goal of this research project aimed to investigate the spatial components of number representation using different experimental designs and tasks. The experiment 1 focused on horizontal and vertical number representations in a within- and between-subjects designs in a parity and magnitude comparative tasks, presenting positive or negative Arabic digits (1-9 without 5). The experiment 1A replied the SNARC and distance effects in both spatial arrangements. The experiment 1B showed an horizontal reversed SNARC effect in both tasks while a vertical reversed SNARC effect was found only in comparative task. In the experiment 1C two groups of subjects performed both tasks in two different instruction-responding hand assignments with positive numbers. The results did not show any significant differences between two assignments, even if the vertical number line seemed to be more flexible respect to horizontal one. On the whole the experiment 1 seemed to demonstrate a contextual (i.e. task set) influences of the nature of the SNARC effect. The experiment 2 focused on the effect of horizontal and vertical number representations on spatial biases in a paper-and-pencil bisecting tasks. In the experiment 2A the participants were requested to bisect physical and number (2 or 9) lines horizontally and vertically. The findings demonstrated that digit 9 strings tended to generate a more rightward bias comparing with digit 2 strings horizontally. However in vertical condition the digit 2 strings generated a more upperward bias respect to digit 9 strings, suggesting a top-to-bottom number line. In the experiment 2B the participants were asked to bisect lines flanked by numbers (i.e. 1 or 7) in four spatial arrangements: horizontal, vertical, right-diagonal and left-diagonal lines. Four number conditions were created according to congruent or incongruent number line representation: 1-1, 1-7, 7-1 and 7-7. The main results showed a more reliable rightward bias in horizontal congruent condition (1-7) respect to incongruent condition (7-1). Vertically the incongruent condition (1-7) determined a significant bias towards bottom side of line respect to congruent condition (7-1). The experiment 2 suggested a more rigid horizontal number line while in vertical condition the number representation could be more flexible. In the experiment 3 we adopted the materials of experiment 2B in order to find a number line effect on temporal (motor) performance. The participants were presented horizontal, vertical, rightdiagonal and left-diagonal lines flanked by the same digits (i.e. 1-1 or 7-7) or by different digits (i.e. 1-7 or 7-1). The digits were spatially congruent or incongruent with their respective hypothesized mental representations. Participants were instructed to touch the lines either close to the large digit, or close to the small digit, or to bisected the lines. Number processing influenced movement execution more than movement planning. Number congruency influenced spatial biases mostly along the horizontal but also along the vertical dimension. These results support a two-dimensional magnitude representation. Finally, the experiment 4 addressed the visuo-spatial manipulation of number representations for accessing and retrieval arithmetic facts. The participants were requested to perform a number-matching and an addition verification tasks. The findings showed an interference effect between sum-nodes and neutral-nodes only with an horizontal presentation of digit-cues, in number-matching tasks. In the addition verification task, the performance was similar for horizontal and vertical presentations of arithmetic problems. In conclusion the data seemed to show an automatic activation of horizontal number line also used to retrieval arithmetic facts. The horizontal number line seemed to be more rigid and the preferred way to order number from left-to-right. A possible explanation could be the left-to-right direction for reading and writing. The vertical number line seemed to be more flexible and more dependent from the tasks, reflecting perhaps several example in the environment representing numbers either from bottom-to-top or from top-to-bottom. However the bottom-to-top number line seemed to be activated by explicit task demands.

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This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

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The advent of distributed and heterogeneous systems has laid the foundation for the birth of new architectural paradigms, in which many separated and autonomous entities collaborate and interact to the aim of achieving complex strategic goals, impossible to be accomplished on their own. A non exhaustive list of systems targeted by such paradigms includes Business Process Management, Clinical Guidelines and Careflow Protocols, Service-Oriented and Multi-Agent Systems. It is largely recognized that engineering these systems requires novel modeling techniques. In particular, many authors are claiming that an open, declarative perspective is needed to complement the closed, procedural nature of the state of the art specification languages. For example, the ConDec language has been recently proposed to target the declarative and open specification of Business Processes, overcoming the over-specification and over-constraining issues of classical procedural approaches. On the one hand, the success of such novel modeling languages strongly depends on their usability by non-IT savvy: they must provide an appealing, intuitive graphical front-end. On the other hand, they must be prone to verification, in order to guarantee the trustworthiness and reliability of the developed model, as well as to ensure that the actual executions of the system effectively comply with it. In this dissertation, we claim that Computational Logic is a suitable framework for dealing with the specification, verification, execution, monitoring and analysis of these systems. We propose to adopt an extended version of the ConDec language for specifying interaction models with a declarative, open flavor. We show how all the (extended) ConDec constructs can be automatically translated to the CLIMB Computational Logic-based language, and illustrate how its corresponding reasoning techniques can be successfully exploited to provide support and verification capabilities along the whole life cycle of the targeted systems.

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This thesis examines the literature on local home bias, i.e. investor preference towards geographically nearby stocks, and investigates the role of firm’s visibility, profitability, and opacity in explaining such behavior. While firm’s visibility is expected to proxy for the behavioral root originating such a preference, firm’s profitability and opacity are expected to capture the informational one. I find that less visible, and more profitable and opaque firms, conditionally to the demand, benefit from being headquartered in regions characterized by a scarcity of listed firms (local supply of stocks). Specifically, research estimates suggest that firms headquartered in regions with a poor supply of stocks would be worth i) 11 percent more if non-visible, non-profitable and non-opaque; ii) 16 percent more if profitable; and iii) 28 percent more if both profitable and opaque. Overall, as these features are able to explain most, albeit not all, of the local home bias effect, I reasonably argue and then assess that most of the preference for local is determined by a successful attempt to exploit local information advantage (60 percent), while the rest is determined by a mere (irrational) feeling of familiarity with the local firm (40 percent). Several and significant methodological, theoretical, and practical implications come out.