Sorveglianza dell'influenza aviare: studio di un sistema di rilevazione precoce della circolazione virale in popolazioni di volatili selvatici

The emergency of infection by highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) subtype H5N1 has focused the attention of the world scientific community, requiring the prompt provision of effective control systems for early detection of the circulation of low pathogenic influenza H5 viruses (LPAI) in populations of wild birds to prevent outbreaks of highly pathogenic (HPAI) in populations of domestic birds with possible transmission to humans. The project stems from the aim to provide, through a preliminary analysis of data obtained from surveillance in Italy and Europe, a preliminary study about the virus detection rates and the development of mathematical models, an objective assessment of the effectiveness of avian influenza surveillance systems in wild bird populations, and to point out guidelines to support the planning process of the sampling activities. The results obtained from the statistical processing quantify the sampling effort in terms of time and sample size required, and simulating different epidemiological scenarios identify active surveillance as the most suitable for endemic LPAI infection monitoring in wild waterfowl, and passive surveillance as the only really effective tool in early detecting HPAI H5N1 circulation in wild populations. Given the lack of relevant information on H5N1 epidemiology, and the actual finantial and logistic constraints, an approach that makes use of statistical tools to evaluate and predict monitoring activities effectiveness proves to be of primary importance to direct decision-making and make the best use of available resources.

Mobi - kids - rischio di tumori cerebrali ed esposizione a campi a radiofrequenza nei bambini e negli adolescenti

Introduzione. Il rapido e globale incremento dell’utilizzo dei telefoni cellulari da parte degli adolescenti e dei bambini ha generato un considerevole interesse circa i possibili effetti sulla salute dell’esposizione a campi elettromagnetici a radiofrequenza. Perciò è stato avviato lo studio internazionale caso-controllo Mobi-kids, all’interno del quale si colloca quello italiano condotto in 4 Regioni (Piemonte, Lombardia, Toscana, Emilia-Romagna). Obiettivi. Lo studio ha come obiettivo quello di valutare la stima del rischio degli effetti potenzialmente avversi di queste esposizioni sul sistema nervoso centrale nei bambini e negli adolescenti. Materiali e Metodi. La popolazione include tutte le persone di età compresa tra 10 e 24 anni residenti nelle 4 Regioni, con una diagnosi confermata di neoplasia cerebrale primitiva, diagnosticata durante il periodo di studio (3 anni). Sono stati selezionati due controlli - ospedalizzati per appendicite acuta - per ciascun caso. I controlli sono stati appaiati individualmente a ciascun caso per età, sesso e residenza del caso. Risultati. In Italia sono stati intervistati a Giugno 2014, 106 casi e 191 controlli. In Emilia-Romagna i casi reclutati sono stati fino ad ora 21 e i controlli 20, con una rispondenza del’81% e dell’65% rispettivamente. Dei 41 soggetti totali, il 61% era di sesso maschile con un’età media generale pari a 16,5 (±4,5) anni. Inoltre il 44% degli intervistati proveniva dalla classe di età più giovane (10-14). In merito allo stato di appaiamento, nella nostra Regione sono state effettuate 7 triplette (33%) - 1 caso e 2 controlli - e 6 doppiette (29%) - 1 caso ed 1 controllo. Conclusioni. Nonostante le varie difficoltà affrontate data la natura del progetto, l’esperienza maturata fin ad ora ha comunque portato alla fattibilità dello studio e porterà probabilmente a risultati che contribuiranno alla comprensione dei potenziali rischi di neoplasie cerebrali associati all'uso di telefoni cellulari tra i giovani.

Pattern peristaltico uterino nell'adenomiosi isolata: studio prospettico

Obiettivi dello studio: valutare con l’ecografia transvaginale la peristalsi uterina in fase periovulatoria in donne con adenomiosi isolata, confrontandola con un gruppo di controllo e, secondariamente, valutare il grado di accordo tra gli sperimentatori nella descrizione dei pattern di contrattilità. Disegno dello studio: studio osservazione prospettico condotto presso il Policlinico S. Orsola- Malpighi di Bologna, Italia. Materiali e Metodi: sono state reclutate pazienti afferenti al Centro per valutazione ambulatoriale, suddivise sulla base dei criteri di inclusione ed esclusione nei gruppi A (adenomiosi) e B (controlli) e sono state sottoposte da un unico ecografista esperto a ecografia transvaginale con registrazione di un video della durata di 180 secondi della scansione sagittale dell’utero. La registrazione è stata rivalutata off line da due sperimentatori esperti ecografisti, non a conoscenza della storia clinica delle pazienti e in cieco l’uno rispetto all’altro, che hanno descritto il pattern contrattile. È stata stimata una numerosità campionaria di 18 pazienti per gruppo per ottenere una differenza del 20% nell’obiettivo primario con una significatività del 5% (power 80%). Risultati: di 51 pazienti reclutate nello studio, a seguito di drop out 36 sono state sottoposte alla videoregistrazione ecografica (18 per gruppo). Il pattern peristaltico nel gruppo A è risultato alterato in maniera statisticamente significativa rispetto al gruppo B con un p value= 0,02. Sono stati osservati un pattern retrogrado nel 27,8% vs 72,2%, anterogrado del 11,1% vs 16,7%, opposto 38,9% vs 5,6% e random nel 22,2% vs 5,6%, rispettivamente nel gruppo A e B. Il calcolo dell’accordo interosservatore ha portato a un κ value di 0,92. Conclusioni: l’adenomiosi isolata è associata a disperistalsi uterina, che concorrerebbe nello sviluppo dei sintomi tipici dell’adenomiosi. L’ecografia transvaginale rappresenta uno strumento accessibile e utile nella valutazione della contrattilità uterina in quanto il grado di accordo tra gli sperimentatori è ottimo.

Assessing the fit of unidimensional IRT models for binary data under model misspecification

Model misspecification affects the classical test statistics used to assess the fit of the Item Response Theory (IRT) models. Robust tests have been derived under model misspecification, as the Generalized Lagrange Multiplier and Hausman tests, but their use has not been largely explored in the IRT framework. In the first part of the thesis, we introduce the Generalized Lagrange Multiplier test to detect differential item response functioning in IRT models for binary data under model misspecification. By means of a simulation study and a real data analysis, we compare its performance with the classical Lagrange Multiplier test, computed using the Hessian and the cross-product matrix, and the Generalized Jackknife Score test. The power of these tests is computed empirically and asymptotically. The misspecifications considered are local dependence among items and non-normal distribution of the latent variable. The results highlight that, under mild model misspecification, all tests have good performance while, under strong model misspecification, the performance of the tests deteriorates. None of the tests considered show an overall superior performance than the others. In the second part of the thesis, we extend the Generalized Hausman test to detect non-normality of the latent variable distribution. To build the test, we consider a seminonparametric-IRT model, that assumes a more flexible latent variable distribution. By means of a simulation study and two real applications, we compare the performance of the Generalized Hausman test with the M2 limited information goodness-of-fit test and the Likelihood-Ratio test. Additionally, the information criteria are computed. The Generalized Hausman test has a better performance than the Likelihood-Ratio test in terms of Type I error rates and the M2 test in terms of power. The performance of the Generalized Hausman test and the information criteria deteriorates when the sample size is small and with a few items.

Retrospective assessment of fracture risk through opportunistic radiological screening in a large modern cohort of liver transplant recipients

Objective: Liver transplantation has been associated with a high prevalence of osteoporosis, although most data rely on single-center studies with limited sample size, with most of them dating back to late 1990s and early 2000s. The present thesis aims to assess the prevalence of fragility fractures and contributing factors in a large modern cohort of liver transplant recipients managed in a referral Italian Liver Transplant Center. Design and Methods: Paper and electronic medical records of 429 consecutive patients receiving liver transplantation from 1/1/2010 to 31/12/2015 were reviewed, and 366 patients were selected. Clinically obtained electronic radiological images within 6 months from the date of liver transplant surgery, such as lateral views of spine X-rays or CT abdominal scans, were opportunistically reviewed in a blinded fashion to screen for morphometric vertebral fractures. Clinical fragility fractures reported in the medical records, along with information on etiology of cirrhosis and biochemistries at the time of liver surgery were also recorded. Results: Prevalence of fragility fractures in the whole cohort was 155/366 (42.3%), with no significant differences between sexes. Of patients with fractures, most sustained vertebral fractures (145/155, 93.5%), the majority of which were mild or moderate wedges. Multiple vertebral fractures were common (41.3%). Fracture rates were similar across different etiologies of cirrhosis and were also comparable in patients with diabetes or exposed to glucocorticoids. Kidney function was significantly worse in women with fractures. Independent of age, sex, alcohol use, eGFR, etiology of liver disease, lower BMI was the only independent risk factor for fractures (adjusted OR 1,058, 95%CI 1,001-1,118, P=0.046) in this study population. Conclusions: A considerable fracture burden was shown in a large and modern cohort of liver transplant recipients. Given the remarkably high prevalence of fractures, a metabolic bone disease screening should be implemented in every patient awaiting liver transplantation.

Bridging the gap:exploring the cognitive impact of InterpretBank on Chinese interpreting trainees

This exploratory research project developed a cognitive situated approach to studying aspects of simultaneous interpreting with quantitative, confirmatory methods. To do so, it explored how to determine the potential benefits of using a computer-assisted interpreting tool, InterpretBank, among 22 Chinese interpreting trainees with Chinese L1 and English L2. The informants were mostly 2nd-year female students with an average age of 24.7 enrolled in Chinese MA interpreting programs. The study adopted a pretest and posttest design with three cycles. The independent variable was using Excel or InterpretBank. After Cycle I (pre-test), the sample split into control (Excel) and experimental (InterpretBank) groups. Tool choice was compulsory in Cycle II but not Cycle III. The source materials for each cycle were pairs of matching transcripts from popular science podcasts. Informants compiled glossaries out of one transcript, while the other one was edited for simultaneous interpreting, with 39 terms as potential problem triggers. Quantitative profiling results showed that InterpretBank informants spent less time on glossary compilation, generated more terms faster than Excel informants, but their glossaries were less diverse (personal) and longer. The booth tasks yielded no significant differences in fluency indicators except for more bumps (200-600ms silent time gaps) for InterpretBank in Cycle II. InterpretBank informants had more correct renditions in Cycles II and III but there was no statistically significant difference among accuracy indicators per cycle. Holistic quality assessments by PhD raters showed InterpretBank consistently outperforming Excel, suggesting a positive InterpretBank impact on SI quality. However, some InterpretBank implementations raised cognitive ergonomic concerns for Chinese, potentially undermining its utility. Overall, results were mixed regarding InterpretBank benefits for Chinese trainees, but the project was successful in developing cognitive situated interpreting study methods, constructs and indicators.