The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Landscape ecology and genetics of the wolf in Italy

This PhD Thesis includes five main parts on diverse topics. The first two parts deal with the trophic ecology of wolves in Italy consequently to a recent increase of wild ungulates abundance. Data on wolf diet across time highlighted how wild ungulates are important food resource for wolves in Italy. Increasing wolf population, increasing numbers of wild ungulates and decreasing livestock consume are mitigating wolf-man conflicts in Italy in the near future. In the third part, non-invasive genetic sampling techniques were used to obtain genotypes and genders of about 400 wolves. Thus, wolf packs were genetically reconstructed using diverse population genetic and parentage software. Combining the results on pack structure and genetic relatedness with sampling locations, home ranges of wolf packs and dispersal patterns were identified. These results, particularly important for the conservation management of wolves in Italy, illustrated detailed information that can be retrieved from genetic identification of individuals. In the fourth part, wolf locations were combined with environmental information obtained as GIS-layers. Modern species distribution models (niche models) were applied to infer potential wolf distribution and predation risk. From the resulting distribution maps, information pastures with the highest risk of depredation were derived. This is particularly relevant as it allows identifying those areas under danger of carnivore attack on livestock. Finally, in the fifth part, habitat suitability models were combined with landscape genetic analysis. On one side landscape genetic analyses on the Italian wolves provided new information on the dynamics and connectivity of the population and, on the other side, a profound analysis of the effects that habitat suitability methods had on the parameterization of landscape genetic analyses was carried out to contributed significantly to landscape genetic theory.

The Integrated European Project "GEHA - GEnetics of Healthy Aging": recruitment, health status assessment and survival of the Italian 90+ sibpairs

The present study is part of the EU Integrated Project “GEHA – Genetics of Healthy Aging” (Franceschi C et al., Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1100: 21-45, 2007), whose aim is to identify genes involved in healthy aging and longevity, which allow individuals to survive to advanced age in good cognitive and physical function and in the absence of major age-related diseases. Aims The major aims of this thesis were the following: 1. to outline the recruitment procedure of 90+ Italian siblings performed by the recruiting units of the University of Bologna (UNIBO) and Rome (ISS). The procedures related to the following items necessary to perform the study were described and commented: identification of the eligible area for recruitment, demographic aspects related to the need of getting census lists of 90+siblings, mail and phone contact with 90+ subjects and their families, bioethics aspects of the whole procedure, standardization of the recruitment methodology and set-up of a detailed flow chart to be followed by the European recruitment centres (obtainment of the informed consent form, anonimization of data by using a special code, how to perform the interview, how to collect the blood, how to enter data in the GEHA Phenotypic Data Base hosted at Odense). 2. to provide an overview of the phenotypic characteristics of 90+ Italian siblings recruited by the recruiting units of the University of Bologna (UNIBO) and Rome (ISS). The following items were addressed: socio-demographic characteristics, health status, cognitive assessment, physical conditions (handgrip strength test, chair-stand test, physical ability including ADL, vision and hearing ability, movement ability and doing light housework), life-style information (smoking and drinking habits) and subjective well-being (attitude towards life). Moreover, haematological parameters collected in the 90+ sibpairs as optional parameters by the Bologna and Rome recruiting units were used for a more comprehensive evaluation of the results obtained using the above mentioned phenotypic characteristics reported in the GEHA questionnaire. 3. to assess 90+ Italian siblings as far as their health/functional status is concerned on the basis of three classification methods proposed in previous studies on centenarians, which are based on: • actual functional capabilities (ADL, SMMSE, visual and hearing abilities) (Gondo et al., J Gerontol. 61A (3): 305-310, 2006); • actual functional capabilities and morbidity (ADL, ability to walk, SMMSE, presence of cancer, ictus, renal failure, anaemia, and liver diseases) (Franceschi et al., Aging Clin Exp Res, 12:77-84, 2000); • retrospectively collected data about past history of morbidity and age of disease onset (hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, stroke, cancer, osteopororis, neurological diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and ocular diseases) (Evert et al., J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 58A (3): 232-237, 2003). Firstly these available models to define the health status of long-living subjects were applied to the sample and, since the classifications by Gondo and Franceschi are both based on the present functional status, they were compared in order to better recognize the healthy aging phenotype and to identify the best group of 90+ subjects out of the entire studied population. 4. to investigate the concordance of health and functional status among 90+ siblings in order to divide sibpairs in three categories: the best (both sibs are in good shape), the worst (both sibs are in bad shape) and an intermediate group (one sib is in good shape and the other is in bad shape). Moreover, the evaluation wanted to discover which variables are concordant among siblings; thus, concordant variables could be considered as familiar variables (determined by the environment or by genetics). 5. to perform a survival analysis by using mortality data at 1st January 2009 from the follow-up as the main outcome and selected functional and clinical parameters as explanatory variables. Methods A total of 765 90+ Italian subjects recruited by UNIBO (549 90+ siblings, belonging to 258 families) and ISS (216 90+ siblings, belonging to 106 families) recruiting units are included in the analysis. Each subject was interviewed according to a standardized questionnaire, comprising extensively utilized questions that have been validated in previous European studies on elderly subjects and covering demographic information, life style, living conditions, cognitive status (SMMSE), mood, health status and anthropometric measurements. Moreover, subjects were asked to perform some physical tests (Hand Grip Strength test and Chair Standing test) and a sample of about 24 mL of blood was collected and then processed according to a common protocol for the preparation and storage of DNA aliquots. Results From the analysis the main findings are the following: - a standardized protocol to assess cognitive status, physical performances and health status of European nonagenarian subjects was set up, in respect to ethical requirements, and it is available as a reference for other studies in this field; - GEHA families are enriched in long-living members and extreme survival, and represent an appropriate model for the identification of genes involved in healthy aging and longevity; - two simplified sets of criteria to classify 90+ sibling according to their health status were proposed, as operational tools for distinguishing healthy from non healthy subjects; - cognitive and functional parameters have a major role in categorizing 90+ siblings for the health status; - parameters such as education and good physical abilities (500 metres walking ability, going up and down the stairs ability, high scores at hand grip and chair stand tests) are associated with a good health status (defined as “cognitive unimpairment and absence of disability”); - male nonagenarians show a more homogeneous phenotype than females, and, though far fewer in number, tend to be healthier than females; - in males the good health status is not protective for survival, confirming the male-female health survival paradox; - survival after age 90 was dependent mainly on intact cognitive status and absence of functional disabilities; - haemoglobin and creatinine levels are both associated with longevity; - the most concordant items among 90+ siblings are related to the functional status, indicating that they contain a familiar component. It is still to be investigated at what level this familiar component is determined by genetics or by environment or by the interaction between genetics, environment and chance (and at what level). Conclusions In conclusion, we could state that this study, in accordance with the main objectives of the whole GEHA project, represents one of the first attempt to identify the biological and non biological determinants of successful/unsuccessful aging and longevity. Here, the analysis was performed on 90+ siblings recruited in Northern and Central Italy and it could be used as a reference for others studies in this field on Italian population. Moreover, it contributed to the definition of “successful” and “unsuccessful” aging and categorising a very large cohort of our most elderly subjects into “successful” and “unsuccessful” groups provided an unrivalled opportunity to detect some of the basic genetic/molecular mechanisms which underpin good health as opposed to chronic disability. Discoveries in the topic of the biological determinants of healthy aging represent a real possibility to identify new markers to be utilized for the identification of subgroups of old European citizens having a higher risk to develop age-related diseases and disabilities and to direct major preventive medicine strategies for the new epidemic of chronic disease in the 21st century.

Diversity and local democracy. The case of Republic of Macedonia - implications of ethnic diversity on municipal decision making and organizational performance

This research seeks to review the level of knowledge achieved in interpreting the relationship between the ethnic diversity at the workplace in the public sector and the organizational performance; as well as seeks to contribute in understanding the implications of this relationship. The study commenced with investigating the academic research in the relevant area addressing the following research questions: (a) How are diversity management and organizational performance conceptualized? (b) What are the existing findings of research concerning diversity at the workplace in the public organizations and organizational performance? (c) What factors intervene the relationship between the diversity and organizational performance? Based on the findings from the review of the academic research, this study seeks to contribute in understanding the ethnic diversity – performance relationship and its mplications at the local level in the Macedonian context. The reform process in Macedonia as a multicultural society, where for many years, inter-ethnic relations have been one of the most sensitive political issues, affecting both the stability of the country and the progress, focused mainly on the implementation of the decentralization and inclusion of ethnic minorities in the decision making process. With the implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement workforce at the units of local self-government in Republic of Macedonia is becoming more balanced with respect to ethnic minorities, with more workforce participation than ever by Albanians, Turks, Roma and other minorities. As public organizations at local level become more diverse along ethnic lines, it makes sense to pay more attention to how different ethnic groups interact with one another at work. Thus it gives additional importance on the research question addressed in the study and gives significance of the research in a broader scope.

Transcriptional responses of the Helicobacter pylori cag pathogenicity island

The severity of Helicobacter pylori infections largely depends on the genetic diversity of the infecting strain, and particularly on the presence of the cag pathogenicity island (cag-PAI). This virulence locus encodes a type-IV secretion system able to translocate in the host cell at least the cag-encoded toxin CagA and peptidoglycan fragments, that together are responsible for the pathogenic phenotype in the host. Little is known about the bacterial regulators that underlie the coordinated expression of cag gene products, needed to assemble a functional secretion system apparatus. To fill this gap, a comprehensive analysis of the transcriptional regulation of the cag-PAI operons was undertaken. To pursue this goal, a robust tool for the analysis of gene expression in H. pylori was first implemented. A bioluminescent reporter system based on the P. luminescens luxCDABE operon was constructed and validated by comparisons with transcriptional analyses, then it was systematically used for the comprehensive study and mapping of the cag promoters. The identification of bona fide cag promoters had permitted to pinpoint the set of cag transcriptional units of the PAI. The responses of these cag transcriptional units to metabolic stress signals were analyzed in detail, and integrated with transcription studies in deletion mutants of important H. pylori virulence regulators and protein-DNA interaction analyses to map the binding sites of the regulators. Finally, a small regulatory RNA cncR1 encoded by the cag-PAI was identified, and the 5’- and 3’-ends of the molecule were mapped by primer extension analyses, northern blot and studies with lux reporter constructs. To identify regulatory effects exerted by cncR1 on the H. pylori gene expression, the cncR1 knock out strain was derived and compared to the parental wild type strain by a macroarray approach. Results suggest a negative effect exerted by cncR1 on the regulome of the alternative sigma54 factor.

Coordination and Control of Autonomous Mobile Robots Swarms by using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Consensus Theory

This thesis presents some different techniques designed to drive a swarm of robots in an a-priori unknown environment in order to move the group from a starting area to a final one avoiding obstacles. The presented techniques are based on two different theories used alone or in combination: Swarm Intelligence (SI) and Graph Theory. Both theories are based on the study of interactions between different entities (also called agents or units) in Multi- Agent Systems (MAS). The first one belongs to the Artificial Intelligence context and the second one to the Distributed Systems context. These theories, each one from its own point of view, exploit the emergent behaviour that comes from the interactive work of the entities, in order to achieve a common goal. The features of flexibility and adaptability of the swarm have been exploited with the aim to overcome and to minimize difficulties and problems that can affect one or more units of the group, having minimal impact to the whole group and to the common main target. Another aim of this work is to show the importance of the information shared between the units of the group, such as the communication topology, because it helps to maintain the environmental information, detected by each single agent, updated among the swarm. Swarm Intelligence has been applied to the presented technique, through the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (PSO), taking advantage of its features as a navigation system. The Graph Theory has been applied by exploiting Consensus and the application of the agreement protocol with the aim to maintain the units in a desired and controlled formation. This approach has been followed in order to conserve the power of PSO and to control part of its random behaviour with a distributed control algorithm like Consensus.

Experimental assessment of environmental decay effects in masonry via non destructive diagnostic techniques and mechanical tests

Environmental decay in porous masonry materials, such as brick and mortar, is a widespread problem concerning both new and historic masonry structures. The decay mechanisms are quite complex dependng upon several interconnected parameters and from the interaction with the specific micro-climate. Materials undergo aesthetical and substantial changes in character but while many studies have been carried out, the mechanical aspect has been largely understudied while it bears true importance from the structural viewpoint. A quantitative assessment of the masonry material degradation and how it affects the load-bearing capacity of masonry structures appears missing. The research work carried out, limiting the attention to brick masonry addresses this issue through an experimental laboratory approach via different integrated testing procedures, both non-destructive and mechanical, together with monitoring methods. Attention was focused on transport of moisture and salts and on the damaging effects caused by the crystallization of two different salts, sodium chloride and sodium sulphate. Many series of masonry specimens, very different in size and purposes were used to track the damage process since its beginning and to monitor its evolution over a number of years Athe same time suitable testing techniques, non-destructive, mini-invasive, analytical, of monitoring, were validated for these purposes. The specimens were exposed to different aggressive agents (in terms of type of salt, of brine concentration, of artificial vs. open-air natural ageing, …), tested by different means (qualitative vs. quantitative, non destructive vs. mechanical testing, punctual vs. wide areas, …), and had different size (1-, 2-, 3-header thick walls, full-scale walls vs. small size specimens, brick columns and triplets vs. small walls, masonry specimens vs. single units of brick and mortar prisms, …). Different advanced testing methods and novel monitoring techniques were applied in an integrated holistic approach, for quantitative assessment of masonry health state.

Low-temperature thermochronological evolution of the Menderes and Alanya massifs (Turkey)

The application of two low-temperature thermochronometers [fission-track analysis and (U-Th)/He analyses, both on apatite] to various tectonostratigraphic units of the Menderes and Alanya Massifs of Turkey has provided significant new constraints to the understanding of their structural evolution. The Menderes Massif of western Anatolia is one of the largest metamorphic core complexes on Earth. The integration of the geochronometric dataset presented in this dissertation with preexisting ones from the literature delineates three groups of samples within the Menderes Massif. In the northern and southern region the massif experienced a Late Oligocene-Early Miocene tectonic denudation and surface uplift; whereas data from the central region are younger, with most ages ranging between the Middle-Late Miocene. The results of this study are consistent with the interpretation for a symmetric exhumation of the Menderes Massif. The Alanya Massif of SW Anatolia presents a typical nappe pile consisting of thrust sheets with contrasting metamorphic histories. Petrological and geochronological data clearly indicate that the tectonometamorphic evolution Alanya started from Late Cretaceous with the northward subduction of an ‘Alanya ocean’ under the Tauride plate. As an effect of the closure of the İzmir–Ankara–Erzincan ocean, northward backthrusting during the Paleocene-Early Eocene created the present stacking order. Apatite fission-track ages from this study range from 31.8 to 26.8 Ma (Late Rupelian-Early Chattian) and point to a previously unrecognized mid-Oligocene cooling/exhumation episode. (U-Th)/He analysis on zircon crystals obtained from the island of Cyprus evidentiate that the Late Cretaceous trondhjemites of the Troodos Massif not recorded a significant cooling event. Instead results for the Late Triassic turbiditic sandstones of the Vlambouros Formation show that the Mamonia mélange was never buried enough to reach the closure temperature of the ZHe radiometric system (ca. 200°C), thus retaining the Paleozoic signature of a previous sedimentary cycle.