Verso il consumo sostenibile: i prodotti biologici nelle abitudini alimentari degli italiani

Scegliere di consumare in modo sostenibile significa passare ad un nuovo modello di consumo. Tale modello richiede una maggiore consapevolezza e responsabilità da parte dei consumatori, unite all'adozione di nuovi stili di vita e di scelte d’acquisto, che permettano il raggiungimento di elevati livelli di benessere nel rispetto dell'ambiente. Un notevole sforzo è stato compiuto recentemente dai policy maker per incoraggiare il consumo sostenibile quali implementazioni dello sviluppo sostenibile. Ancora lunga, tuttavia, è la strada da percorrere per raggiungere pienamente questo obiettivo. Tra i prodotti sostenibili, il biologico si è rivelato di gran lunga il più rappresentativo: le statistiche di questo mercato mostrano, infatti, tendenze positive, sebbene il consumo risulti ancora eterogeneo e contenuto rispetto al consumo di alimenti convenzionali. Ciò mostra che il comportamento dei consumatori non è ancora abbastanza reattivo alle suddette politiche. Il presente studio si propone di contribuire alla ricerca sul consumo sostenibile approfondendo i fattori che incoraggiano o impediscono il consumo di prodotti alimentari biologici in Italia. Adottando un nuovo approccio si cerca di capire come i diversi segmenti di diete alimentari affrontino gli alimenti biologici in termini di consumi e di atteggiamenti. Un'analisi multivariata a più fasi è stata condotta su un campione di 3.004 consumatori. Un’analisi delle componenti principali non lineare è stata applicata alle variabili ordinali che misurano il consumo di ventuno categorie di alimenti. Successivamente è stata applicata la cluster analysis che ha dato luogo a quattro segmenti di abitudini alimentari. I prodotti biologici sono diventati parte delle abitudini alimentari in Italia in quasi un terzo della popolazione. Il consumo sembra essersi affermato soprattutto nel segmento con abitudini alimentari sane. Una scarsa attenzione ad una dieta sana, gli stili di vita, il reddito, l'accessibilità, la mancanza di consapevolezza condizionano le abitudini alimentari a scapito di un consumo più sostenibile.

Studio e validazione di una nuova metodica per la valutazione dello stato di forma

We observed 82 healthy subjects, from both sexes, aged between 19 and 77 years. All subjects performed two different tests: for being scientifically acknowledged, the first one was used as a reference and it was a stress test (CPX). During the entire test, heart rate and gas exchange were recorded continuously; the second, the actual object of this study, was a submaximal test (TOP). Only heart rate was recorded continuously. The main purpose was to determinate an index of physical fitness as result of TOP. CPX test allowed us to individuate anaerobic threshold. We used an incremental protocol of 10/20 Watt/min, different by age. For our TOP test we used an RHC400 UPRIGHT BIKE, by Air Machine. Each subject was monitored for heart frequency. After 2 minutes of resting period there was a first step: 3 minutes of pedalling at a constant rate of 60 RPM, (40 watts for elder subjects and 60 watts for the younger ones). Then, the subject was allowed to rest for a recovery phase of 5 minutes. Third and last step consisted of 3 minutes of pedalling again at 60 RPM but now set to 60 watts for elder subjects and 80 watts for the young subjects. Finally another five minutes of recovery. A good correlation was found between TOP and CPX results especially between punctua l heart rate reserve (HRR’) and anaerobic threshold parameters such as Watt, VO2, VCO2 . HRR’ was obtained by subtracting maximal heart rate during TOP from maximal theoretic heart rate (206,9-(0,67*age)). Data were analyzed through cluster analysis in order to obtain 3 homogeneous groups. The first group contains the least fit subjects (inactive, women, elderly). The other groups contain the “average fit” and the fittest subjects (active, men, younger). Concordance between test resulted in 83,23%. Afterwards, a linear combinations of the most relevant variables gave us a formula to classify people in the correct group. The most relevant result is that this submaximal test is able to discriminate subjects with different physical condition and to provide information (index) about physical fitness through HRR’. Compared to a traditional incremental stress test, the very low load of TOP, short duration and extended resting period, make this new method suitable to very different people. To better define the TOP index, it is necessary to enlarge our subject sample especially by diversifying the age range.

Institutional Processes and Discursive Strategies: Rhetoric and Vocabulary Analysis of CSR and Sustainability

The candidate tackled an important issue in contemporary management: the role of CSR and Sustainability. The research proposal focused on a longitudinal and inductive research, directed to specify the evolution of CSR and contribute to the new institutional theory, in particular institutional work framework, and to the relation between institutions and discourse analysis. The documental analysis covers all the evolution of CSR, focusing also on a number of important networks and associations. Some of the methodologies employed in the thesis have been employed as a consequence of data analysis, in a truly inductive research process. The thesis is composed by two section. The first section mainly describes the research process and the analyses results. The candidates employed several research methods: a longitudinal content analysis of documents, a vocabulary research with statistical metrics as cluster analysis and factor analysis, a rhetorical analysis of justifications. The second section puts in relation the analysis results with theoretical frameworks and contributions. The candidate confronted with several frameworks: Actor-Network-Theory, Institutional work and Boundary Work, Institutional Logic. Chapters are focused on different issues: a historical reconstruction of CSR; a reflection about symbolic adoption of recurrent labels; two case studies of Italian networks, in order to confront institutional and boundary works; a theoretical model of institutional change based on contradiction and institutional complexity; the application of the model to CSR and Sustainability, proposing Sustainability as a possible institutional logic.

Pet food: quality and quality improvement

Today’s pet food industry is growing rapidly, with pet owners demanding high-quality diets for their pets. The primary role of diet is to provide enough nutrients to meet metabolic requirements, while giving the consumer a feeling of well-being. Diet nutrient composition and digestibility are of crucial importance for health and well being of animals. A recent strategy to improve the quality of food is the use of “nutraceuticals” or “Functional foods”. At the moment, probiotics and prebiotics are among the most studied and frequently used functional food compounds in pet foods. The present thesis reported results from three different studies. The first study aimed to develop a simple laboratory method to predict pet foods digestibility. The developed method was based on the two-step multi-enzymatic incubation assay described by Vervaeke et al. (1989), with some modification in order to better represent the digestive physiology of dogs. A trial was then conducted to compare in vivo digestibility of pet-foods and in vitro digestibility using the newly developed method. Correlation coefficients showed a close correlation between digestibility data of total dry matter and crude protein obtained with in vivo and in vitro methods (0.9976 and 0.9957, respectively). Ether extract presented a lower correlation coefficient, although close to 1 (0.9098). Based on the present results, the new method could be considered as an alternative system of evaluation of dog foods digestibility, reducing the need for using experimental animals in digestibility trials. The second parte of the study aimed to isolate from dog faeces a Lactobacillus strain capable of exert a probiotic effect on dog intestinal microflora. A L. animalis strain was isolated from the faeces of 17 adult healthy dogs..The isolated strain was first studied in vitro when it was added to a canine faecal inoculum (at a final concentration of 6 Log CFU/mL) that was incubated in anaerobic serum bottles and syringes which simulated the large intestine of dogs. Samples of fermentation fluid were collected at 0, 4, 8, and 24 hours for analysis (ammonia, SCFA, pH, lactobacilli, enterococci, coliforms, clostridia). Consequently, the L. animalis strain was fed to nine dogs having lactobacilli counts lower than 4.5 Log CFU per g of faeces. The study indicated that the L animalis strain was able to survive gastrointestinal passage and transitorily colonize the dog intestine. Both in vitro and in vivo results showed that the L. animalis strain positively influenced composition and metabolism of the intestinal microflora of dogs. The third trail investigated in vitro the effects of several non-digestible oligosaccharides (NDO) on dog intestinal microflora composition and metabolism. Substrates were fermented using a canine faecal inoculum that was incubated in anaerobic serum bottles and syringes. Substrates were added at the final concentration of 1g/L (inulin, FOS, pectin, lactitol, gluconic acid) or 4g/L (chicory). Samples of fermentation fluid were collected at 0, 6, and 24 hours for analysis (ammonia, SCFA, pH, lactobacilli, enterococci, coliforms). Gas production was measured throughout the 24 h of the study. Among the tested NDO lactitol showed the best prebiotic properties. In fact, it reduced coliforms and increased lactobacilli counts, enhanced microbial fermentation and promoted the production of SCFA while decreasing BCFA. All the substrates that were investigated showed one or more positive effects on dog faecal microflora metabolism or composition. Further studies (in particular in vivo studies with dogs) will be needed to confirm the prebiotic properties of lactitol and evaluate its optimal level of inclusion in the diet.

Analisi biomeccanica del MAWASHI GERI JODAN in cinture nere di Karate: modelli tecnici a confronto

In martial arts there are several ways to perform the turning kick . Following the martial arts or different learning models many types of kicks take shape. Mawashi geri is the karate turning kick. At the moment there are two models of mawashi geri, one comes from the traditional karate (OLD), and the other newer (NEW), who agrees to the change of the rules of W.K.F. (World Karate Federation) happened in 2000 (Macan J. et all 2006) . In this study we are focus on the differences about two models the mawashi geri jodan of karate. The purpose of this study is to analyse cinematic and kinetic parameters of mawashi geri jodan. Timing of the striking and supporting leg actions were also evaluated A Vicon system 460 IR with 6 cameras at sample frequency of 200 Hz was used. 37 reflective markers have been set on the skin of the subjects following the “PlugInGait-total body model”. The participants performed five repetitions of mawashi geri jodan at maximum rapidity with their dominant leg against a ball suspended in front of them placed at ear height. Fourteen skilled subjects (mean level black belt 1,7 dan; age 20,9±4,8 yrs; height 171,4±7,3 cm; weight 60,9±10,2 Kg) practicing karate have been split in two group through the hierarchical cluster analysis following their technical characteristics. By means of the Mann Whitney-U test (Spss-package) the differences between the two groups were verified in preparatory and execution phase. Kicking knee at start, kicking hip and knee at take-off were different between the two groups (p < 0,05). Striking hip flexion during the spin of the supporting foot was different between the two groups (p < 0,05). Peak angular velocity of hip flexion were different between the two groups (p < 0,05). Groups showed differences also in timing of the supporting spin movement. While Old group spin the supporting foot at 30% of the trial, instead New start spinning at 44% of the trial. Old group showed a greater supporting foot spin than New (Old 110° Vs New 82°). Abduction values didn’t show any differences between the two groups. At the hit has been evaluated a 120° of double hips abduction, for the entire sample. Striking knee extension happened for everybody after the kicking hip flexion and confirm the proximal-distal action of the striking leg (Sorensen H. 1996). In contrast with Pearson J.N. 1997 and Landeo R 2007, peak velocity of the striking foot is not useful to describe kick performance because affected by the stature. Two groups are different either in preparatory phase or in execution phase. The body is set in difference manner already before the take-off of the kicking foot. The groups differ for the timing of the supporting foot action Trainer should pay attention to starting posture and on abduction capacities of the athletes.

Development of a new galaxy classification technique and its application to the zCOSMOS survey

The purpose of this Thesis is to develop a robust and powerful method to classify galaxies from large surveys, in order to establish and confirm the connections between the principal observational parameters of the galaxies (spectral features, colours, morphological indices), and help unveil the evolution of these parameters from $z \sim 1$ to the local Universe. Within the framework of zCOSMOS-bright survey, and making use of its large database of objects ($\sim 10\,000$ galaxies in the redshift range $0 < z \lesssim 1.2$) and its great reliability in redshift and spectral properties determinations, first we adopt and extend the \emph{classification cube method}, as developed by Mignoli et al. (2009), to exploit the bimodal properties of galaxies (spectral, photometric and morphologic) separately, and then combining together these three subclassifications. We use this classification method as a test for a newly devised statistical classification, based on Principal Component Analysis and Unsupervised Fuzzy Partition clustering method (PCA+UFP), which is able to define the galaxy population exploiting their natural global bimodality, considering simultaneously up to 8 different properties. The PCA+UFP analysis is a very powerful and robust tool to probe the nature and the evolution of galaxies in a survey. It allows to define with less uncertainties the classification of galaxies, adding the flexibility to be adapted to different parameters: being a fuzzy classification it avoids the problems due to a hard classification, such as the classification cube presented in the first part of the article. The PCA+UFP method can be easily applied to different datasets: it does not rely on the nature of the data and for this reason it can be successfully employed with others observables (magnitudes, colours) or derived properties (masses, luminosities, SFRs, etc.). The agreement between the two classification cluster definitions is very high. ``Early'' and ``late'' type galaxies are well defined by the spectral, photometric and morphological properties, both considering them in a separate way and then combining the classifications (classification cube) and treating them as a whole (PCA+UFP cluster analysis). Differences arise in the definition of outliers: the classification cube is much more sensitive to single measurement errors or misclassifications in one property than the PCA+UFP cluster analysis, in which errors are ``averaged out'' during the process. This method allowed us to behold the \emph{downsizing} effect taking place in the PC spaces: the migration between the blue cloud towards the red clump happens at higher redshifts for galaxies of larger mass. The determination of $M_{\mathrm{cross}}$ the transition mass is in significant agreement with others values in literature.

Bridging innovation, nature and tradition: assessment of strategies for rural tourism development in Maramureş (Romania)

In the frame of EU rural policy, always more oriented towards environmental concerns and green livelihoods, Romania stands out for the predominance of rural areas and high nature value farming. The country has to face the challenge of joining the modernization process of rural farming systems with the valorization of local assets. Tourism has emerged as one of the main drivers of change and contributors for a sustainable exploitation of local resources. Rural tourism (RT) can foster the enhancement of the territorial capital (TC), the preservation of public goods (PGs) and the promotion of a more environmental oriented livelihood. The research focuses on a case study area, two valleys from Maramureş, where environmental approaches as diversification strategies are partially explored. The work investigates the role of tourism initiatives for the promotion of green oriented practices. The first part of the work is based on a literature review and interdisciplinary analysis of secondary data to identify the key issues: from rural development policy, to the concept of TC, of PGs and RT. The Romanian development programmes and related strategies are investigated; afterwards the characteristics of the County and the role of RT as diversification and valorisation policies is considered. The second part is based on the collection of primary data through interviews to different local stakeholders (farmers owners of rural guesthouses, local administrators, networks and artisans). The main frequencies are analyzed, a cluster analysis is computed to evaluate the similarities within the most representative groups and a comparative analysis is carried out between the two Valleys. The frame of the analysis is based on a set of indicators following the dimensions of the TC, to assess the characteristics of the local stakeholders and to outline the perception about the local PGs and on the adopted strategies to manage the territory. Final considerations are elaborated and few scenarios are outlined, giving relevance to the importance of improving awareness and creating embeddedness among public-private local stakeholders and resources as a tool for a socio-economic and environmental development of the area.

Comparing Different Approaches for Clustering Categorical Data

There are different ways to do cluster analysis of categorical data in the literature and the choice among them is strongly related to the aim of the researcher, if we do not take into account time and economical constraints. Main approaches for clustering are usually distinguished into model-based and distance-based methods: the former assume that objects belonging to the same class are similar in the sense that their observed values come from the same probability distribution, whose parameters are unknown and need to be estimated; the latter evaluate distances among objects by a defined dissimilarity measure and, basing on it, allocate units to the closest group. In clustering, one may be interested in the classification of similar objects into groups, and one may be interested in finding observations that come from the same true homogeneous distribution. But do both of these aims lead to the same clustering? And how good are clustering methods designed to fulfil one of these aims in terms of the other? In order to answer, two approaches, namely a latent class model (mixture of multinomial distributions) and a partition around medoids one, are evaluated and compared by Adjusted Rand Index, Average Silhouette Width and Pearson-Gamma indexes in a fairly wide simulation study. Simulation outcomes are plotted in bi-dimensional graphs via Multidimensional Scaling; size of points is proportional to the number of points that overlap and different colours are used according to the cluster membership.

Studio della Peste dei Piccoli Ruminanti nei territori saharawi

La Peste dei Piccoli Ruminanti (PPR) è una patologia virale ed acuta che colpisce i piccoli ruminanti, diffusa in Africa Sub-Sahariana, in Medio Oriente ed in Asia Meridionale. Questo lavoro si propone di effettuare il primo studio epidemiologico sulla PPR nella Repubblica Araba Saharawi Democratica (RASD), che comprende i Campi Profughi Saharawi, in territorio algerino, ed i “Territori Liberati” del Sahara Occidentale, valutando la potenziale presenza, prevalenza e distribuzione del virus della PPR in questi territori. Lo studio si è basato su una metodica di campionamento “a cluster” secondo la tecnica “a due stadi”. Sono stati individuati 23 siti di campionamento dai quali sono stati raccolti un totale di 976 campioni di siero prelevati da pecore, capre e cammelli. I campioni sono stati prelevati in Marzo ed Aprile 2008. I risultati dei test Competitive-Elisa hanno evidenziato una sieroprevalenza nel 28,26% degli animali testati, benché durante la raccolta dei campioni nessun animale abbia presentato sintomi clinici riferibili alla PPR. Tra Gennaio e Maggio 2010, in seguito ad episodi di aumentata mortalità nella popolazione ovi-caprina presente nei Campi Profughi, le autorità veterinarie locali sospettarono un outbreak di PPR. Tra Maggio ed Ottobre 2010 è stato sviluppato un outbreak investigation nei Campi Profughi Saharawi con lo scopo di confermare la circolazione del PPRV. I risultati di laboratorio hanno confermato la presenza del virus nel 33,33% dei campioni. Il sequenziamento del genoma virale ha rivelato che il virus apparteneva al Lignaggio 4 e le analisi filogenetiche hanno indicato una stretta relazione (99.3%) con il PPRV isolato durante l'epidemia di PPR in Marocco del 2008.

A chemical loop approach for methanol reforming

Over the past few years, the switch towards renewable sources for energy production is considered as necessary for the future sustainability of the world environment. Hydrogen is one of the most promising energy vectors for the stocking of low density renewable sources such as wind, biomasses and sun. The production of hydrogen by the steam-iron process could be one of the most versatile approaches useful for the employment of different reducing bio-based fuels. The steam iron process is a two-step chemical looping reaction based (i) on the reduction of an iron-based oxide with an organic compound followed by (ii) a reoxidation of the reduced solid material by water, which lead to the production of hydrogen. The overall reaction is the water oxidation of the organic fuel (gasification or reforming processes) but the inherent separation of the two semireactions allows the production of carbon-free hydrogen. In this thesis, steam-iron cycle with methanol is proposed and three different oxides with the generic formula AFe2O4 (A=Co,Ni,Fe) are compared in order to understand how the chemical properties and the structural differences can affect the productivity of the overall process. The modifications occurred in used samples are deeply investigated by the analysis of used materials. A specific study on CoFe2O4-based process using both classical and in-situ/ex-situ analysis is reported employing many characterization techniques such as FTIR spectroscopy, TEM, XRD, XPS, BET, TPR and Mössbauer spectroscopy.

Innovation and economic performance of the firms in the service sector: relevant issues and open problems

This thesis is a collection of essays related to the topic of innovation in the service sector. The choice of this structure is functional to the purpose of single out some of the relevant issues and try to tackle them, revising first the state of the literature and then proposing a way forward. Three relevant issues has been therefore selected: (i) the definition of innovation in the service sector and the connected question of measurement of innovation; (ii) the issue of productivity in services; (iii) the classification of innovative firms in the service sector. Facing the first issue, chapter II shows how the initial width of the original Schumpeterian definition of innovation has been narrowed and then passed to the service sector form the manufacturing one in a reduce technological form. Chapter III tackle the issue of productivity in services, discussing the difficulties for measuring productivity in a context where the output is often immaterial. We reconstruct the dispute on the Baumol’s cost disease argument and propose two different ways to go forward in the research on productivity in services: redefining the output along the line of a characteristic approach; and redefining the inputs, particularly analysing which kind of input it’s worth saving. Chapter IV derives an integrated taxonomy of innovative service and manufacturing firms, using data coming from the 2008 CIS survey for Italy. This taxonomy is based on the enlarged definition of “innovative firm” deriving from the Schumpeterian definition of innovation and classify firms using a cluster analysis techniques. The result is the emergence of a four cluster solution, where firms are differentiated by the breadth of the innovation activities in which they are involved. Chapter 5 reports some of the main conclusions of each singular previous chapter and the points worth of further research in the future.

An Analysis of Living Conditions in Rural Villages in China. A New Geography of the Country.

Analysts, politicians and international players from all over the world look at China as one of the most powerful countries on the international scenario, and as a country whose economic development can significantly impact on the economies of the rest of the world. However many aspects of this country have still to be investigated. First the still fundamental role played by Chinese rural areas for the general development of the country from a political, economic and social point of view. In particular, the way in which the rural areas have influenced the social stability of the whole country has been widely discussed due to their strict relationship with the urban areas where most people from the countryside emigrate searching for a job and a better life. In recent years many studies have mostly focused on the urbanization phenomenon with little interest in the living conditions in rural areas and in the deep changes which have occurred in some, mainly agricultural provinces. An analysis of the level of infrastructure is one of the main aspects which highlights the principal differences in terms of living conditions between rural and urban areas. In this thesis, I first carried out the analysis through the multivariate statistics approach (Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis) in order to define the new map of rural areas based on the analysis of living conditions. In the second part I elaborated an index (Living Conditions Index) through the Fuzzy Expert/Inference System. Finally I compared this index (LCI) to the results obtained from the cluster analysis drawing geographic maps. The data source is the second national agricultural census of China carried out in 2006. In particular, I analysed the data refer to villages but aggregated at province level.

Multiple stellar populations in globular clusters with photometry and low resolution spectroscopy

Our view of Globular Clusters has deeply changed in the last decade. Modern spectroscopic and photometric data have conclusively established that globulars are neither coeval nor monometallic, reopening the issue of the formation of such systems. Their formation is now schematized as a two-step process, during which the polluted matter from the more massive stars of a first generation gives birth, in the cluster innermost regions, to a second generation of stars with the characteristic signature of fully CNO-processed matter. To date, star-to-star variations in abundances of the light elements (C, N, O, Na) have been observed in stars of all evolutionary phases in all properly studied Galactic globular clusters. Multiple or broad evolutionary sequences have also been observed in nearly all the clusters that have been observed with good signal-to-noise in the appropriate photometric bands. The body of evidence suggests that spreads in light-element abundances can be fairly well traced by photometric indices including near ultraviolet passbands, as CNO abundance variations affect mainly wavelengths shorter than ~400 nm owing to the rise of some NH and CN molecular absorption bands. Here, we exploit this property of near ultraviolet photometry to trace internal chemical variations and combined it with low resolution spectroscopy aimed to derive carbon and nitrogen abundances in order to maximize the information on the multiple populations. This approach has been proven to be very effective in (i) detecting multiple population, (ii) characterizing their global properties (i.e., relative fraction of stars, location in the color-magnitude diagram, spatial distribution, and trends with cluster parameters) and (iii) precisely tagging their chemical properties (i.e., extension of the C-N anticorrelation, bimodalities in the N content).

Assessing Food Security in Selected Mediterranean Countries

Food Security has become an important issue in the international debate, particularly during the latest economic crisis. It relevant issue also for the Mediterranean Countries (MCs), particularly those of the southern shore, as they are is facing complex economic and social changes. On the one hand there is the necessity to satisfy the increasing and changing food demand of the growing population; on the other hand it is important to promote economic growth and adjust the agricultural production to food demand in a sustainable perspective. The assessment of food security conditions is a challenging task due to the multi-dimensional nature and complexity of the matter. Many papers in the scientific literature focus on the nutritional aspects of food security, while its economic issues have been addressed less frequently and only in recent times. Thus, the main objective of the research is to assess food (in)security conditions in the MCs. The study intends to identify and implement appropriate theoretical concepts and methodological tools to be used in the assessment of food security, with a particular emphasis on its economic dimension within MCs. The study follows a composite methodological approach, based on the identification and selection of a number of relevant variables, a refined set of indicators is identified by means of a two-step Principal Component Analysis applied to 90 countries and the PCA findings have been studied with particular attention to the MCs food security situation. The results of the study show that MCs have an higher economic development compared to low-income countries, however the economic and social disparities of this area show vulnerability to food (in)security, due to: dependency on food imports, lack of infrastructure and agriculture investment, climate condition and political stability and inefficiency. In conclusion, the main policy implications of food (in)security conditions in MCs are discussed.

Before It's Too Late: INGOs' Handling of Conflict Risk in South Sudan

What do international non-governmental organisations (INGOs) do before and during the escalation of conflicts? The academic literature primarily focuses on these organisations' behaviour during an evident crisis rather than on how they anticipate the escalation of conflicts, assess the situation in which they find themselves, and decide on strategies to cope with the possibility of upcoming violence. Such lopsided focus persists despite calls for INGOs to become more proactive in managing their programmes and their staff members' safety. Mindful of this imbalance, the present study provides a causal explanation of how decision-makers in INGOs anticipate and react to the risk of low-level violence escalating into full-blown conflicts. This thesis aims to explain these actors' behaviour by presenting it as a two�step process involving how INGOs conduct risk assessments and how they turn these assessments into decisions. The study performs a structured, focused comparison of seven INGOs operating in South Sudan before the so-called Juba Clashes of 7 July 2016. Based on an analytical framework of INGO decision�making stemming from political risk analysis, organisational decision-making theory and conflict studies literature, the study reconstructs decision-making via process-tracing combined with mixed methods of data collection.