Modello bayesiano per la riduzione dell'incertezza nella previsione delle piene del fiume Reno

Many efforts have been devoting since last years to reduce uncertainty in hydrological modeling predictions. The principal sources of uncertainty are provided by input errors, for inaccurate rainfall prediction, and model errors, given by the approximation with which the water flow processes in the soil and river discharges are described. The aim of the present work is to develop a bayesian model in order to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge predictions for the Reno river. The ’a priori’ distribution function is given by an autoregressive model, while the likelihood function is provided by a linear equation which relates observed values of discharge in the past and hydrological TOPKAPI model predictions obtained by the rainfall predictions of the limited-area model COSMO-LAMI. The ’a posteriori’ estimations are provided throw a H∞ filter, because the statistical properties of estimation errors are not known. In this work a stationary and a dual adaptive filter are implemented and compared. Statistical analysis of estimation errors and the description of three case studies of flood events occurred during the fall seasons from 2003 to 2005 are reported. Results have also revealed that errors can be described as a markovian process only at a first approximation. For the same period, an ensemble of ’a posteriori’ estimations is obtained throw the COSMO-LEPS rainfall predictions, but the spread of this ’a posteriori’ ensemble is not enable to encompass observation variability. This fact is related to the building of the meteorological ensemble, whose spread reaches its maximum after 5 days. In the future the use of a new ensemble, COSMO–SREPS, focused on the first 3 days, could be helpful to enlarge the meteorogical and, consequently, the hydrological variability.

Tectonic geomorphology and active strain of the Northern Apennines mountain front

The Northern Apennines (NA) chain is the expression of the active plate margin between Europe and Adria. Given the low convergence rates and the moderate seismic activity, ambiguities still occur in defining a seismotectonic framework and many different scenarios have been proposed for the mountain front evolution. Differently from older models that indicate the mountain front as an active thrust at the surface, a recently proposed scenario describes the latter as the frontal limb of a long-wavelength fold (> 150 km) formed by a thrust fault tipped around 17 km at depth, and considered as the active subduction boundary. East of Bologna, this frontal limb is remarkably very straight and its surface is riddled with small, but pervasive high- angle normal faults. However, west of Bologna, some recesses are visible along strike of the mountain front: these perturbations seem due to the presence of shorter wavelength (15 to 25 km along strike) structures showing both NE and NW-vergence. The Pleistocene activity of these structures was already suggested, but not quantitative reconstructions are available in literature. This research investigates the tectonic geomorphology of the NA mountain front with the specific aim to quantify active deformations and infer possible deep causes of both short- and long-wavelength structures. This study documents the presence of a network of active extensional faults, in the foothills south and east of Bologna. For these structures, the strain rate has been measured to find a constant throw-to-length relationship and the slip rates have been compared with measured rates of erosion. Fluvial geomorphology and quantitative analysis of the topography document in detail the active tectonics of two growing domal structures (Castelvetro - Vignola foothills and the Ghiardo plateau) embedded in the mountain front west of Bologna. Here, tilting and river incision rates (interpreted as that long-term uplift rates) have been measured respectively at the mountain front and in the Enza and Panaro valleys, using a well defined stratigraphy of Pleistocene to Holocene river terraces and alluvial fan deposits as growth strata, and seismic reflection profiles relationships. The geometry and uplift rates of the anticlines constrain a simple trishear fault propagation folding model that inverts for blind thrust ramp depth, dip, and slip. Topographic swath profiles and the steepness index of river longitudinal profiles that traverse the anti- clines are consistent with stratigraphy, structures, aquifer geometry, and seismic reflection profiles. Available focal mechanisms of earthquakes with magnitude between Mw 4.1 to 5.4, obtained from a dataset of the instrumental seismicity for the last 30 years, evidence a clear vertical separation at around 15 km between shallow extensional and deeper compressional hypocenters along the mountain front and adjacent foothills. In summary, the studied anticlines appear to grow at rates slower than the growing rate of the longer- wavelength structure that defines the mountain front of the NA. The domal structures show evidences of NW-verging deformation and reactivations of older (late Neogene) thrusts. The reconstructed river incision rates together with rates coming from several other rivers along a 250 km wide stretch of the NA mountain front and recently available in the literature, all indicate a general increase from Middle to Late Pleistocene. This suggests focusing of deformation along a deep structure, as confirmed by the deep compressional seismicity. The maximum rate is however not constant along the mountain front, but varies from 0.2 mm/yr in the west to more than 2.2 mm/yr in the eastern sector, suggesting a similar (eastward-increasing) trend of the apenninic subduction.

Oblique ionograms automatic scaling and eikonal based ray tracing

A method for automatic scaling of oblique ionograms has been introduced. This method also provides a rejection procedure for ionograms that are considered to lack sufficient information, depicting a very good success rate. Observing the Kp index of each autoscaled ionogram, can be noticed that the behavior of the autoscaling program does not depend on geomagnetic conditions. The comparison between the values of the MUF provided by the presented software and those obtained by an experienced operator indicate that the procedure developed for detecting the nose of oblique ionogram traces is sufficiently efficient and becomes much more efficient as the quality of the ionograms improves. These results demonstrate the program allows the real-time evaluation of MUF values associated with a particular radio link through an oblique radio sounding. The automatic recognition of a part of the trace allows determine for certain frequencies, the time taken by the radio wave to travel the path between the transmitter and receiver. The reconstruction of the ionogram traces, suggests the possibility of estimating the electron density between the transmitter and the receiver, from an oblique ionogram. The showed results have been obtained with a ray-tracing procedure based on the integration of the eikonal equation and using an analytical ionospheric model with free parameters. This indicates the possibility of applying an adaptive model and a ray-tracing algorithm to estimate the electron density in the ionosphere between the transmitter and the receiver An additional study has been conducted on a high quality ionospheric soundings data set and another algorithm has been designed for the conversion of an oblique ionogram into a vertical one, using Martyn's theorem. This allows a further analysis of oblique soundings, throw the use of the INGV Autoscala program for the automatic scaling of vertical ionograms.