Essays in Empirical Political Economics

This thesis takes two perspectives on political institutions. From the one side, it examines the long-run effects of institutions on cultural values. From the other side, I study strategic communication, and its determinants, of politicians, a pivotal actor inside those institutions. The first chapter provides evidence for the legacy of feudalism - a set of labor coercion and migration restrictions -, on interpersonal distrust. I combining administrative data on the feudal system in the Prussian Empire (1816 – 1849) with the geo-localized survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1980 – 2020). I show that areas with strong historical exposure to feudalism have lower levels of inter-personal trust today, by means of OLS- and mover specifications. The second chapter builds a novel dataset that includes the Twitter handles of 18,000+ politicians and 61+ million tweets from 2008 – 2021 from all levels of government. I find substantial partisan differences in Twitter adoption, Twitter activity and audience engagement. I use established tools to measure ideological polarization to provide evidence that online-polarization follows similar trends to offline-polarization, at comparable magnitude and reaches unprecedented heights in 2018 and 2021. I develop a new tool to demonstrate a marked increase in affective polarization. The third chapter tests whether politicians disseminate distortive messages when exposed to bad news. Specifically, I study the diffusion of misleading communication from pro-gun politicians in the aftermath of mass shootings. I exploit the random timing of mass shootings and analyze half a million tweets between 2010 – 2020 in an event-study design. I develop and apply state-of-the-art text analysis tools to show that pro- gun politicians seek to decrease the salience of the mass shooting through distraction and try to alter voters’ belief formation through misrepresenting the causes of the mass shootings.

Rising China and Internet governance: Multistakeholderism, fragmentation and the Liberal Order in the age of digital sovereignty

In its open and private-based dimension, the Internet is the epitome of the Liberal International Order in its global spatial dimension. Therefore, normative questions arise from the emergence of powerful non-liberal actors such as China in Internet governance. In particular, China has supported a UN-based multilateral Internet governance model based on state sovereignty aimed at replacing the existing ICANN-based multistakeholder model. While persistent, this debate has become less dualistic through time. However, fear of Internet fragmentation has increased as the US-China technological competition grew harsher. This thesis inquires “(To what extent) are Chinese stakeholders reshaping the rules of Global Internet Governance?”. This is further unpacked in three smaller questions: (i) (To what extent) are Chinese stakeholders contributing to increased state influence in multistakeholder fora?; (ii) (how) is China contributing to Internet fragmentation?; and (iii) what are the main drivers of Chinese stakeholders’ stances? To answer these questions, Chinese stakeholders’ actions are observed in the making and management of critical Internet resources at the IETF and ICANN respectively, and in mobile connectivity standard-making at 3GPP. Through the lens of norm entrepreneurship in regime complexes, this thesis interprets changes and persistence in the Internet governance normative order and Chinese attitudes towards it. Three research methods are employed: network analysis, semi-structured expert interviews, and thematic document analysis. While China has enhanced state intervention in several technological fields, fostering debates on digital sovereignty, this research finds that the Chinese government does not exert full control on its domestic private actors and concludes that Chinese stakeholders have increasingly adapted to multistakeholder Internet governance as they grew influential within it. To enhance control over Internet-based activities, the Chinese government resorted to regulatory and technical control domestically rather than establishing a splinternet. This is due to Chinese stakeholders’ interest in retaining the network benefits of global interconnectivity.

A double chance to investigate populist influence: The Five Star Movement.

In the last decade, new kinds of European populist parties and movements characterized by a left wing, right wing or “eclectic” attitude have succeeded in entering in governments where they could exert a direct populist influence on their coalition partners or, conversely, become victims themselves of the influence of the institutional background. Such a scenario brought this research to formulate two questions: (i) “To what extent did populist parties succeed in influencing their government coalition partners, leading them to adopt populist rhetoric and change their policy positions?” and (ii) “Have populist parties been able to retain their populist “outside mainstream politics” identity, or have they been assimilated to mainstream parties?”. As a case study this project chose the Italian Five Star Movement. Since 2018 this eclectic populist actor has experienced three different governments first with the radical right wing populist League (2018-2019) and then with the mainstream center left Democratic Party (2019-2021). In addition to this, currently the Five Star Movement is a coalition partner of the ongoing Draghi’s government. Theoretically based on the ideological definition of populism (Mudde, 2004), on a new “revised” model of the inclusionary - exclusionary framework to classify populist parties and on a novel definition of “populist influence”,this research made use of both quantitative (bidimensional and text analysis) and qualitative methods (semi-structured interviews) and mainly focuses on the years 2017- 2020.The importance of this study is threefold. First it contributes to the study of populist influence in government in relation to the ideological attachment of the political actors involved. Second, it contributes to understand if populists in power necessarily need to tone down their anti-system character in order to survive. Third, this study introduces conceptual and methodological novelties within the study of populism and populist influence in government.