Meaningful insights: explainability techniques for black-box models on tabular data

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are novel data analysis techniques providing very accurate prediction results. They are widely adopted in a variety of industries to improve efficiency and decision-making, but they are also being used to develop intelligent systems. Their success grounds upon complex mathematical models, whose decisions and rationale are usually difficult to comprehend for human users to the point of being dubbed as black-boxes. This is particularly relevant in sensitive and highly regulated domains. To mitigate and possibly solve this issue, the Explainable AI (XAI) field became prominent in recent years. XAI consists of models and techniques to enable understanding of the intricated patterns discovered by black-box models. In this thesis, we consider model-agnostic XAI techniques, which can be applied to Tabular data, with a particular focus on the Credit Scoring domain. Special attention is dedicated to the LIME framework, for which we propose several modifications to the vanilla algorithm, in particular: a pair of complementary Stability Indices that accurately measure LIME stability, and the OptiLIME policy which helps the practitioner finding the proper balance among explanations' stability and reliability. We subsequently put forward GLEAMS a model-agnostic surrogate interpretable model which requires to be trained only once, while providing both Local and Global explanations of the black-box model. GLEAMS produces feature attributions and what-if scenarios, from both dataset and model perspective. Eventually, we argue that synthetic data are an emerging trend in AI, being more and more used to train complex models instead of original data. To be able to explain the outcomes of such models, we must guarantee that synthetic data are reliable enough to be able to translate their explanations to real-world individuals. To this end we propose DAISYnt, a suite of tests to measure synthetic tabular data quality and privacy.

Interactive theorem provers: issues faced as a user and tackled as a developer

Interactive theorem provers (ITP for short) are tools whose final aim is to certify proofs written by human beings. To reach that objective they have to fill the gap between the high level language used by humans for communicating and reasoning about mathematics and the lower level language that a machine is able to “understand” and process. The user perceives this gap in terms of missing features or inefficiencies. The developer tries to accommodate the user requests without increasing the already high complexity of these applications. We believe that satisfactory solutions can only come from a strong synergy between users and developers. We devoted most part of our PHD designing and developing the Matita interactive theorem prover. The software was born in the computer science department of the University of Bologna as the result of composing together all the technologies developed by the HELM team (to which we belong) for the MoWGLI project. The MoWGLI project aimed at giving accessibility through the web to the libraries of formalised mathematics of various interactive theorem provers, taking Coq as the main test case. The motivations for giving life to a new ITP are: • study the architecture of these tools, with the aim of understanding the source of their complexity • exploit such a knowledge to experiment new solutions that, for backward compatibility reasons, would be hard (if not impossible) to test on a widely used system like Coq. Matita is based on the Curry-Howard isomorphism, adopting the Calculus of Inductive Constructions (CIC) as its logical foundation. Proof objects are thus, at some extent, compatible with the ones produced with the Coq ITP, that is itself able to import and process the ones generated using Matita. Although the systems have a lot in common, they share no code at all, and even most of the algorithmic solutions are different. The thesis is composed of two parts where we respectively describe our experience as a user and a developer of interactive provers. In particular, the first part is based on two different formalisation experiences: • our internship in the Mathematical Components team (INRIA), that is formalising the finite group theory required to attack the Feit Thompson Theorem. To tackle this result, giving an effective classification of finite groups of odd order, the team adopts the SSReflect Coq extension, developed by Georges Gonthier for the proof of the four colours theorem. • our collaboration at the D.A.M.A. Project, whose goal is the formalisation of abstract measure theory in Matita leading to a constructive proof of Lebesgue’s Dominated Convergence Theorem. The most notable issues we faced, analysed in this part of the thesis, are the following: the difficulties arising when using “black box” automation in large formalisations; the impossibility for a user (especially a newcomer) to master the context of a library of already formalised results; the uncomfortable big step execution of proof commands historically adopted in ITPs; the difficult encoding of mathematical structures with a notion of inheritance in a type theory without subtyping like CIC. In the second part of the manuscript many of these issues will be analysed with the looking glasses of an ITP developer, describing the solutions we adopted in the implementation of Matita to solve these problems: integrated searching facilities to assist the user in handling large libraries of formalised results; a small step execution semantic for proof commands; a flexible implementation of coercive subtyping allowing multiple inheritance with shared substructures; automatic tactics, integrated with the searching facilities, that generates proof commands (and not only proof objects, usually kept hidden to the user) one of which specifically designed to be user driven.

I beni relazionali nella ricerca sociologica: che cosa sono e quali effetti producono

This paper studies relational goods as immaterial assets creating real effects in society. The work starts answering to this question: what kind of effects do relational goods produce? After an accurate literature examination we suppose relational goods are social relations of second order. In the hypotesis they come from the emergence of two distinct social relations: interpersonal and reflexive relations. We describe empirical evidences of these emergent assets in social life and we test the effects they produce with a model. In the work we focus on four targets. First of all we describe the emergence of relational goods through a mathematical model. Then we individualize social realities where relational goods show evident effects and we outline our scientific hypotesis. The following step consists in the formulation of empirical tests. At last we explain final results. Our aim is to set apart the constitutive structure of relational goods into a checkable model coherently with the empirical evidences shown in the research. In the study we use multi-variate analysis techniques to see relational goods in a new way and we use qualitative and quantitative strategies. Relational goods are analysed both as dependent and independent variable in order to consider causative factors acting in a black-box model. Moreover we analyse effects of relational goods inside social spheres, especially in third sector and capitalistic economy. Finally we attain to effective indexes of relational goods in order to compare them with some performance indexes.

Intervista camminata e altri metodi qualitativi per monitorare l'efficacia dei progetti di Educazione Avventura con adolescenti a rischio

INTRODUZIONE - La presente ricerca è incentrata sul monitoraggio dell’efficacia dei progetti di Educazione Avventura con adolescenti difficili, in particolare del progetto “Lunghi cammini educativi”. A partire da un’analisi della letteratura sull’educazione esperienziale nature-based e in particolare sull’Adventure Education con adolescenti difficili, è stata progettata una rilevazione empirica attraverso cui sperimentare un metodo di monitoraggio finalizzato a cogliere la dimensione processuale (che nella ricerca nell’ambito resta spesso inesplorata, poiché sono maggiormente diffusi i metodi di monitoraggio cosiddetti “black-box”), utilizzando un sistema integrato di diverse tecniche di rilevazione. Le due principali domande che hanno guidato la ricerca sono state: 1.Quali processi educativi significativi si innescano e possono essere osservati durante l’esperienza? 2.Il metodo dell’intervista camminata, integrato ad altri metodi, è utile per individuare e monitorare questi processi? METODO - Collocandosi all’interno di un framework metodologico qualitativo (influenzato da riflessioni post-qualitative, paradigma delle mobilità e sguardo fenomenologico), la ricerca prende la forma di uno studio di caso singolo con due unità di analisi, e prevede la triangolazione di diversi metodi di raccolta dei dati: analisi documentale; osservazione partecipante nei cammini e nelle riunioni di équipe; interviste (prima, durante, dopo il cammino) con differenti tecniche: camminata, “image-elicited”, tradizionale, online. RISULTATI - L’analisi tematica abduttiva delle interviste e delle osservazioni conferma quanto già evidenziato dalla letteratura circa la centralità della dilatazione del campo d’esperienza e del lavoro su alcune life skills (in particolare, competenze personali e growth mindset). Emergono anche alcuni key findings inattesi: il notevole “peso” dello stile educativo dell’accompagnatore; la “scoperta” del ruolo della quotidianità all’interno dell’esperienza straordinaria; la necessità di consapevolezza riguardo al potenziale educativo dell’ambiente (naturale e/o antropizzato), per una maggiore intenzionalità nelle scelte strategiche di cammino. L’intervista camminata, nonostante alcuni limiti, si conferma come metodo effettivamente utile a cogliere la dimensione processuale, e coerente con il contesto indagato.

Decomposition and reformulation of integer linear programming problems

This thesis deals with an investigation of Decomposition and Reformulation to solve Integer Linear Programming Problems. This method is often a very successful approach computationally, producing high-quality solutions for well-structured combinatorial optimization problems like vehicle routing, cutting stock, p-median and generalized assignment . However, until now the method has always been tailored to the specific problem under investigation. The principal innovation of this thesis is to develop a new framework able to apply this concept to a generic MIP problem. The new approach is thus capable of auto-decomposition and autoreformulation of the input problem applicable as a resolving black box algorithm and works as a complement and alternative to the normal resolving techniques. The idea of Decomposing and Reformulating (usually called in literature Dantzig and Wolfe Decomposition DWD) is, given a MIP, to convexify one (or more) subset(s) of constraints (slaves) and working on the partially convexified polyhedron(s) obtained. For a given MIP several decompositions can be defined depending from what sets of constraints we want to convexify. In this thesis we mainly reformulate MIPs using two sets of variables: the original variables and the extended variables (representing the exponential extreme points). The master constraints consist of the original constraints not included in any slaves plus the convexity constraint(s) and the linking constraints(ensuring that each original variable can be viewed as linear combination of extreme points of the slaves). The solution procedure consists of iteratively solving the reformulated MIP (master) and checking (pricing) if a variable of reduced costs exists, and in which case adding it to the master and solving it again (columns generation), or otherwise stopping the procedure. The advantage of using DWD is that the reformulated relaxation gives bounds stronger than the original LP relaxation, in addition it can be incorporated in a Branch and bound scheme (Branch and Price) in order to solve the problem to optimality. If the computational time for the pricing problem is reasonable this leads in practice to a stronger speed up in the solution time, specially when the convex hull of the slaves is easy to compute, usually because of its special structure.

Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of micro-CHP Energy Systems

In the framework of the micro-CHP (Combined Heat and Power) energy systems and the Distributed Generation (GD) concept, an Integrated Energy System (IES) able to meet the energy and thermal requirements of specific users, using different types of fuel to feed several micro-CHP energy sources, with the integration of electric generators of renewable energy sources (RES), electrical and thermal storage systems and the control system was conceived and built. A 5 kWel Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) has been studied. Using experimental data obtained from various measurement campaign, the electrical and CHP PEMFC system performance have been determinate. The analysis of the effect of the water management of the anodic exhaust at variable FC loads has been carried out, and the purge process programming logic was optimized, leading also to the determination of the optimal flooding times by varying the AC FC power delivered by the cell. Furthermore, the degradation mechanisms of the PEMFC system, in particular due to the flooding of the anodic side, have been assessed using an algorithm that considers the FC like a black box, and it is able to determine the amount of not-reacted H2 and, therefore, the causes which produce that. Using experimental data that cover a two-year time span, the ageing suffered by the FC system has been tested and analyzed.

From trust who to trust what. A fresh perspective on trust in the era of blockchain

In the last few years, a remarkable technological revolution has been taking place around the world. Such a technological revolution is not just a means to the end of improving efficiency, but an important end of social order. In this work, I show that blockchain is one important example. I discuss that the success of a disintermediated transaction is conditioned on the level of trust in the rules-of-code. In what follows, the dissertation is organized in three studies. Study 1 is a theoretical paper where I present and discuss a model of how blockchain-like technologies can automate and algorithmically dictate the nurturing of trust. Based on study 1, study 2 is aimed to develop and validate a quantitative scale to measure each component of the proposed trust model. Lastly, study 3 is intended to investigate how telematic equipment can affect individual trusting behavior under condition of information asymmetry. The introduction of black box in the Italian automobile insurance market is the set of this study. Overall, the dissertation offers some major contributions for theory and practice about the dynamics underlying the development of trust in the rising era of blockchain transactions.

Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Sviluppo di metodologie di localizzazione nel contesto del Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty

Since the first underground nuclear explosion, carried out in 1958, the analysis of seismic signals generated by these sources has allowed seismologists to refine the travel times of seismic waves through the Earth and to verify the accuracy of the location algorithms (the ground truth for these sources was often known). Long international negotiates have been devoted to limit the proliferation and testing of nuclear weapons. In particular the Treaty for the comprehensive nuclear test ban (CTBT), was opened to signatures in 1996, though, even if it has been signed by 178 States, has not yet entered into force, The Treaty underlines the fundamental role of the seismological observations to verify its compliance, by detecting and locating seismic events, and identifying the nature of their sources. A precise definition of the hypocentral parameters represents the first step to discriminate whether a given seismic event is natural or not. In case that a specific event is retained suspicious by the majority of the State Parties, the Treaty contains provisions for conducting an on-site inspection (OSI) in the area surrounding the epicenter of the event, located through the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the CTBT Organization. An OSI is supposed to include the use of passive seismic techniques in the area of the suspected clandestine underground nuclear test. In fact, high quality seismological systems are thought to be capable to detect and locate very weak aftershocks triggered by underground nuclear explosions in the first days or weeks following the test. This PhD thesis deals with the development of two different seismic location techniques: the first one, known as the double difference joint hypocenter determination (DDJHD) technique, is aimed at locating closely spaced events at a global scale. The locations obtained by this method are characterized by a high relative accuracy, although the absolute location of the whole cluster remains uncertain. We eliminate this problem introducing a priori information: the known location of a selected event. The second technique concerns the reliable estimates of back azimuth and apparent velocity of seismic waves from local events of very low magnitude recorded by a trypartite array at a very local scale. For the two above-mentioned techniques, we have used the crosscorrelation technique among digital waveforms in order to minimize the errors linked with incorrect phase picking. The cross-correlation method relies on the similarity between waveforms of a pair of events at the same station, at the global scale, and on the similarity between waveforms of the same event at two different sensors of the try-partite array, at the local scale. After preliminary tests on the reliability of our location techniques based on simulations, we have applied both methodologies to real seismic events. The DDJHD technique has been applied to a seismic sequence occurred in the Turkey-Iran border region, using the data recorded by the IMS. At the beginning, the algorithm was applied to the differences among the original arrival times of the P phases, so the cross-correlation was not used. We have obtained that the relevant geometrical spreading, noticeable in the standard locations (namely the locations produced by the analysts of the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT Organization, assumed as our reference), has been considerably reduced by the application of our technique. This is what we expected, since the methodology has been applied to a sequence of events for which we can suppose a real closeness among the hypocenters, belonging to the same seismic structure. Our results point out the main advantage of this methodology: the systematic errors affecting the arrival times have been removed or at least reduced. The introduction of the cross-correlation has not brought evident improvements to our results: the two sets of locations (without and with the application of the cross-correlation technique) are very similar to each other. This can be commented saying that the use of the crosscorrelation has not substantially improved the precision of the manual pickings. Probably the pickings reported by the IDC are good enough to make the random picking error less important than the systematic error on travel times. As a further justification for the scarce quality of the results given by the cross-correlation, it should be remarked that the events included in our data set don’t have generally a good signal to noise ratio (SNR): the selected sequence is composed of weak events ( magnitude 4 or smaller) and the signals are strongly attenuated because of the large distance between the stations and the hypocentral area. In the local scale, in addition to the cross-correlation, we have performed a signal interpolation in order to improve the time resolution. The algorithm so developed has been applied to the data collected during an experiment carried out in Israel between 1998 and 1999. The results pointed out the following relevant conclusions: a) it is necessary to correlate waveform segments corresponding to the same seismic phases; b) it is not essential to select the exact first arrivals; and c) relevant information can be also obtained from the maximum amplitude wavelet of the waveforms (particularly in bad SNR conditions). Another remarkable point of our procedure is that its application doesn’t demand a long time to process the data, and therefore the user can immediately check the results. During a field survey, such feature will make possible a quasi real-time check allowing the immediate optimization of the array geometry, if so suggested by the results at an early stage.

X-Ray studies of the physics of matter around super-massive black-holes in nearby Seyfert galaxies

Seyfert galaxies are the closest active galactic nuclei. As such, we can use them to test the physical properties of the entire class of objects. To investigate their general properties, I took advantage of different methods of data analysis. In particular I used three different samples of objects, that, despite frequent overlaps, have been chosen to best tackle different topics: the heterogeneous BeppoS AX sample was thought to be optimized to test the average hard X-ray (E above 10 keV) properties of nearby Seyfert galaxies; the X-CfA was thought the be optimized to compare the properties of low-luminosity sources to the ones of higher luminosity and, thus, it was also used to test the emission mechanism models; finally, the XMM–Newton sample was extracted from the X-CfA sample so as to ensure a truly unbiased and well defined sample of objects to define the average properties of Seyfert galaxies. Taking advantage of the broad-band coverage of the BeppoS AX MECS and PDS instruments (between ~2-100 keV), I infer the average X-ray spectral propertiesof nearby Seyfert galaxies and in particular the photon index (~1.8), the high-energy cut-off (~290 keV), and the relative amount of cold reflection (~1.0). Moreover the unified scheme for active galactic nuclei was positively tested. The distribution of isotropic indicators used here (photon index, relative amount of reflection, high-energy cut-off and narrow FeK energy centroid) are similar in type I and type II objects while the absorbing column and the iron line equivalent width significantly differ between the two classes of sources with type II objects displaying larger absorbing columns. Taking advantage of the XMM–Newton and X–CfA samples I also deduced from measurements that 30 to 50% of type II Seyfert galaxies are Compton thick. Confirming previous results, the narrow FeK line is consistent, in Seyfert 2 galaxies, with being produced in the same matter responsible for the observed obscuration. These results support the basic picture of the unified model. Moreover, the presence of a X-ray Baldwin effect in type I sources has been measured using for the first time the 20-100 keV luminosity (EW proportional to L(20-100)^(−0.22±0.05)). This finding suggests that the torus covering factor may be a function of source luminosity, thereby suggesting a refinement of the baseline version of the unifed model itself. Using the BeppoSAX sample, it has been also recorded a possible correlation between the photon index and the amount of cold reflection in both type I and II sources. At a first glance this confirms the thermal Comptonization as the most likely origin of the high energy emission for the active galactic nuclei. This relation, in fact, naturally emerges supposing that the accretion disk penetrates, depending to the accretion rate, the central corona at different depths (Merloni et al. 2006): the higher accreting systems hosting disks down to the last stable orbit while the lower accreting systems hosting truncated disks. On the contrary, the study of the well defined X–C f A sample of Seyfert galaxies has proved that the intrinsic X-ray luminosity of nearby Seyfert galaxies can span values between 10^(38−43) erg s^−1, i.e. covering a huge range of accretion rates. The less efficient systems have been supposed to host ADAF systems without accretion disk. However, the study of the X–CfA sample has also proved the existence of correlations between optical emission lines and X-ray luminosity in the entire range of L_(X) covered by the sample. These relations are similar to the ones obtained if high-L objects are considered. Thus the emission mechanism must be similar in luminous and weak systems. A possible scenario to reconcile these somehow opposite indications is assuming that the ADAF and the two phase mechanism co-exist with different relative importance moving from low-to-high accretion systems (as suggested by the Gamma vs. R relation). The present data require that no abrupt transition between the two regimes is present. As mentioned above, the possible presence of an accretion disk has been tested using samples of nearby Seyfert galaxies. Here, to deeply investigate the flow patterns close to super-massive black-holes, three case study objects for which enough counts statistics is available have been analysed using deep X-ray observations taken with XMM–Newton. The obtained results have shown that the accretion flow can significantly differ between the objects when it is analyzed with the appropriate detail. For instance the accretion disk is well established down to the last stable orbit in a Kerr system for IRAS 13197-1627 where strong light bending effect have been measured. The accretion disk seems to be formed spiraling in the inner ~10-30 gravitational radii in NGC 3783 where time dependent and recursive modulation have been measured both in the continuum emission and in the broad emission line component. Finally, the accretion disk seems to be only weakly detectable in rk 509, with its weak broad emission line component. Finally, blueshifted resonant absorption lines have been detected in all three objects. This seems to demonstrate that, around super-massive black-holes, there is matter which is not confined in the accretion disk and moves along the line of sight with velocities as large as v~0.01-0.4c (whre c is the speed of light). Wether this matter forms winds or blobs is still matter of debate together with the assessment of the real statistical significance of the measured absorption lines. Nonetheless, if confirmed, these phenomena are of outstanding interest because they offer new potential probes for the dynamics of the innermost regions of accretion flows, to tackle the formation of ejecta/jets and to place constraints on the rate of kinetic energy injected by AGNs into the ISM and IGM. Future high energy missions (such as the planned Simbol-X and IXO) will likely allow an exciting step forward in our understanding of the flow dynamics around black holes and the formation of the highest velocity outflows.

Physical and mineralogical changes of Hungarian monumental stones exposed to different conditions: stone-testing in-situ and under laboratory conditions

The Székesfehérvár Ruin Garden is a unique assemblage of monuments belonging to the cultural heritage of Hungary due to its important role in the Middle Ages as the coronation and burial church of the Kings of the Hungarian Christian Kingdom. It has been nominated for “National Monument” and as a consequence, its protection in the present and future is required. Moreover, it was reconstructed and expanded several times throughout Hungarian history. By a quick overview of the current state of the monument, the presence of several lithotypes can be found among the remained building and decorative stones. Therefore, the research related to the materials is crucial not only for the conservation of that specific monument but also for other historic structures in Central Europe. The current research is divided in three main parts: i) description of lithologies and their provenance, ii) physical properties testing of historic material and iii) durability tests of analogous stones obtained from active quarries. The survey of the National Monument of Székesfehérvár, focuses on the historical importance and the architecture of the monument, the different construction periods, the identification of the different building stones and their distribution in the remaining parts of the monument and it also included provenance analyses. The second one was the in situ and laboratory testing of physical properties of historic material. As a final phase samples were taken from local quarries with similar physical and mineralogical characteristics to the ones used in the monument. The three studied lithologies are: fine oolitic limestone, a coarse oolitic limestone and a red compact limestone. These stones were used for rock mechanical and durability tests under laboratory conditions. The following techniques were used: a) in-situ: Schmidt Hammer Values, moisture content measurements, DRMS, mapping (construction ages, lithotypes, weathering forms) b) laboratory: petrographic analysis, XRD, determination of real density by means of helium pycnometer and bulk density by means of mercury pycnometer, pore size distribution by mercury intrusion porosimetry and by nitrogen adsorption, water absorption, determination of open porosity, DRMS, frost resistance, ultrasonic pulse velocity test, uniaxial compressive strength test and dynamic modulus of elasticity. The results show that initial uniaxial compressive strength is not necessarily a clear indicator of the stone durability. Bedding and other lithological heterogeneities can influence the strength and durability of individual specimens. In addition, long-term behaviour is influenced by exposure conditions, fabric and, especially, the pore size distribution of each sample. Therefore, a statistic evaluation of the results is highly recommended and they should be evaluated in combination with other investigations on internal structure and micro-scale heterogeneities of the material, such as petrographic observation, ultrasound pulse velocity and porosimetry. Laboratory tests used to estimate the durability of natural stone may give a good guidance to its short-term performance but they should not be taken as an ultimate indication of the long-term behaviour of the stone. The interdisciplinary study of the results confirms that stones in the monument show deterioration in terms of mineralogy, fabric and physical properties in comparison with quarried stones. Moreover stone-testing proves compatibility between quarried and historical stones. Good correlation is observed between the non-destructive-techniques and laboratory tests results which allow us to minimize sampling and assessing the condition of the materials. Concluding, this research can contribute to the diagnostic knowledge for further studies that are needed in order to evaluate the effect of recent and future protective measures.

Coastal flood vulnerability assessment with geomatic methods: Test sites of western Thailand, Sydney (Australia) and aeolian islands (south tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

The work undertaken in this PhD thesis is aimed at the development and testing of an innovative methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine catastrophic inundation (tsunami). Different approaches are used at different spatial scales and are applied to three different study areas: 1. The entire western coast of Thailand 2. Two selected coastal suburbs of Sydney – Australia 3. The Aeolian Islands, in the South Tyrrhenian Sea – Italy I have discussed each of these cases study in at least one scientific paper: one paper about the Thailand case study (Dall’Osso et al., in review-b), three papers about the Sydney applications (Dall’Osso et al., 2009a; Dall’Osso et al., 2009b; Dall’Osso and Dominey-Howes, in review) and one last paper about the work at the Aeolian Islands (Dall’Osso et al., in review-a). These publications represent the core of the present PhD thesis. The main topics dealt with are outlined and discussed in a general introduction while the overall conclusions are outlined in the last section.

Development of muliplexed analytical methods based on bioluminescent whole-cell biosensors

The subject of this Ph.D. research thesis is the development and application of multiplexed analytical methods based on bioluminescent whole-cell biosensors. One of the main goals of analytical chemistry is multianalyte testing in which two or more analytes are measured simultaneously in a single assay. The advantages of multianalyte testing are work simplification, high throughput, and reduction in the overall cost per test. The availability of multiplexed portable analytical systems is of particular interest for on-field analysis of clinical, environmental or food samples as well as for the drug discovery process. To allow highly sensitive and selective analysis, these devices should combine biospecific molecular recognition with ultrasensitive detection systems. To address the current need for rapid, highly sensitive and inexpensive devices for obtaining more data from each sample,genetically engineered whole-cell biosensors as biospecific recognition element were combined with ultrasensitive bioluminescence detection techniques. Genetically engineered cell-based sensing systems were obtained by introducing into bacterial, yeast or mammalian cells a vector expressing a reporter protein whose expression is controlled by regulatory proteins and promoter sequences. The regulatory protein is able to recognize the presence of the analyte (e.g., compounds with hormone-like activity, heavy metals…) and to consequently activate the expression of the reporter protein that can be readily measured and directly related to the analyte bioavailable concentration in the sample. Bioluminescence represents the ideal detection principle for miniaturized analytical devices and multiplexed assays thanks to high detectability in small sample volumes allowing an accurate signal localization and quantification. In the first chapter of this dissertation is discussed the obtainment of improved bioluminescent proteins emitting at different wavelenghts, in term of increased thermostability, enhanced emission decay kinetic and spectral resolution. The second chapter is mainly focused on the use of these proteins in the development of whole-cell based assay with improved analytical performance. In particular since the main drawback of whole-cell biosensors is the high variability of their analyte specific response mainly caused by variations in cell viability due to aspecific effects of the sample’s matrix, an additional bioluminescent reporter has been introduced to correct the analytical response thus increasing the robustness of the bioassays. The feasibility of using a combination of two or more bioluminescent proteins for obtaining biosensors with internal signal correction or for the simultaneous detection of multiple analytes has been demonstrated by developing a dual reporter yeast based biosensor for androgenic activity measurement and a triple reporter mammalian cell-based biosensor for the simultaneous monitoring of two CYP450 enzymes activation, involved in cholesterol degradation, with the use of two spectrally resolved intracellular luciferases and a secreted luciferase as a control for cells viability. In the third chapter is presented the development of a portable multianalyte detection system. In order to develop a portable system that can be used also outside the laboratory environment even by non skilled personnel, cells have been immobilized into a new biocompatible and transparent polymeric matrix within a modified clear bottom black 384 -well microtiter plate to obtain a bioluminescent cell array. The cell array was placed in contact with a portable charge-coupled device (CCD) light sensor able to localize and quantify the luminescent signal produced by different bioluminescent whole-cell biosensors. This multiplexed biosensing platform containing whole-cell biosensors was successfully used to measure the overall toxicity of a given sample as well as to obtain dose response curves for heavy metals and to detect hormonal activity in clinical samples (PCT/IB2010/050625: “Portable device based on immobilized cells for the detection of analytes.” Michelini E, Roda A, Dolci LS, Mezzanotte L, Cevenini L , 2010). At the end of the dissertation some future development steps are also discussed in order to develop a point of care (POCT) device that combine portability, minimum sample pre-treatment and highly sensitive multiplexed assays in a short assay time. In this POCT perspective, field-flow fractionation (FFF) techniques, in particular gravitational variant (GrFFF) that exploit the earth gravitational field to structure the separation, have been investigated for cells fractionation, characterization and isolation. Thanks to the simplicity of its equipment, amenable to miniaturization, the GrFFF techniques appears to be particularly suited for its implementation in POCT devices and may be used as pre-analytical integrated module to be applied directly to drive target analytes of raw samples to the modules where biospecifc recognition reactions based on ultrasensitive bioluminescence detection occurs, providing an increase in overall analytical output.

A Design Methodology for Computer Security Testing

The field of "computer security" is often considered something in between Art and Science. This is partly due to the lack of widely agreed and standardized methodologies to evaluate the degree of the security of a system. This dissertation intends to contribute to this area by investigating the most common security testing strategies applied nowadays and by proposing an enhanced methodology that may be effectively applied to different threat scenarios with the same degree of effectiveness. Security testing methodologies are the first step towards standardized security evaluation processes and understanding of how the security threats evolve over time. This dissertation analyzes some of the most used identifying differences and commonalities, useful to compare them and assess their quality. The dissertation then proposes a new enhanced methodology built by keeping the best of every analyzed methodology. The designed methodology is tested over different systems with very effective results, which is the main evidence that it could really be applied in practical cases. Most of the dissertation discusses and proves how the presented testing methodology could be applied to such different systems and even to evade security measures by inverting goals and scopes. Real cases are often hard to find in methodology' documents, in contrary this dissertation wants to show real and practical cases offering technical details about how to apply it. Electronic voting systems are the first field test considered, and Pvote and Scantegrity are the two tested electronic voting systems. The usability and effectiveness of the designed methodology for electronic voting systems is proved thanks to this field cases analysis. Furthermore reputation and anti virus engines have also be analyzed with similar results. The dissertation concludes by presenting some general guidelines to build a coordination-based approach of electronic voting systems to improve the security without decreasing the system modularity.

Testing future weak lensing surveys through simulations of observations

Weak lensing experiments such as the future ESA-accepted mission Euclid aim to measure cosmological parameters with unprecedented accuracy. It is important to assess the precision that can be obtained in these measurements by applying analysis software on mock images that contain many sources of noise present in the real data. In this Thesis, we show a method to perform simulations of observations, that produce realistic images of the sky according to characteristics of the instrument and of the survey. We then use these images to test the performances of the Euclid mission. In particular, we concentrate on the precision of the photometric redshift measurements, which are key data to perform cosmic shear tomography. We calculate the fraction of the total observed sample that must be discarded to reach the required level of precision, that is equal to 0.05(1+z) for a galaxy with measured redshift z, with different ancillary ground-based observations. The results highlight the importance of u-band observations, especially to discriminate between low (z < 0.5) and high (z ~ 3) redshifts, and the need for good observing sites, with seeing FWHM < 1. arcsec. We then construct an optimal filter to detect galaxy clusters through photometric catalogues of galaxies, and we test it on the COSMOS field, obtaining 27 lensing-confirmed detections. Applying this algorithm on mock Euclid data, we verify the possibility to detect clusters with mass above 10^14.2 solar masses with a low rate of false detections.