Bayesian Analysis of Linear Inverse Problems with Applications in Economics and Finance

In my PhD thesis I propose a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method for structural econometric models where the functional parameter of interest describes the economic agent's behavior. The structural parameter is characterized as the solution of a functional equation, or by using more technical words, as the solution of an inverse problem that can be either ill-posed or well-posed. From a Bayesian point of view, the parameter of interest is a random function and the solution to the inference problem is the posterior distribution of this parameter. A regular version of the posterior distribution in functional spaces is characterized. However, the infinite dimension of the considered spaces causes a problem of non continuity of the solution and then a problem of inconsistency, from a frequentist point of view, of the posterior distribution (i.e. problem of ill-posedness). The contribution of this essay is to propose new methods to deal with this problem of ill-posedness. The first one consists in adopting a Tikhonov regularization scheme in the construction of the posterior distribution so that I end up with a new object that I call regularized posterior distribution and that I guess it is solution of the inverse problem. The second approach consists in specifying a prior distribution on the parameter of interest of the g-prior type. Then, I detect a class of models for which the prior distribution is able to correct for the ill-posedness also in infinite dimensional problems. I study asymptotic properties of these proposed solutions and I prove that, under some regularity condition satisfied by the true value of the parameter of interest, they are consistent in a "frequentist" sense. Once I have set the general theory, I apply my bayesian nonparametric methodology to different estimation problems. First, I apply this estimator to deconvolution and to hazard rate, density and regression estimation. Then, I consider the estimation of an Instrumental Regression that is useful in micro-econometrics when we have to deal with problems of endogeneity. Finally, I develop an application in finance: I get the bayesian estimator for the equilibrium asset pricing functional by using the Euler equation defined in the Lucas'(1978) tree-type models.

Synthesis and aplication of linear and macrocyclic nitrogen ligand

Linear and macrocyclic nitrogen ligands have been found wide application during the years. Nitrogen has a much strong association with transition-metal ions because the electron pair is partucularly available for complexing purposes. We started our investigation with the synthesis of new chiral perazamacrocycles containing four pyrrole rings. This ligand was synthesized by the [2+2]condensation of (R,R)-diaminocyclohexane and dipirranedialdehydes and was tested, after a complexation with Cu(OAc)2, in Henry reactions. The best yields (96%) and higher ee’s (96%) were obtained when the meso-substituent on the dipyrrandialdehyde was a methyl group. The positive influence of the pyrrole-containing macrocyclic structure on the efficiency/enantioselectivity of the catalytic system was demonstrated by comparison with the Henry reactions performed using analogous ligands. Henry product was obtain in good yield but only 73% of ee, when the dialdehyde unit was replaced by a triheteroaromatic dialdehye (furan-pyrrol-furan). Another well known macrocyclic ligand is calix[4]pyrrole. We decided to investigate, in collaboration with Neier’s group, the metal-coordinating properties of calix[2]pyrrole[2]pyrrolidine compounds obtained by the reduction of calix[4]pyrrole. We focused our attention on the reduction conditions, and tested different Pd supported (charcoal, grafite) catalysts at different condition. Concerning the synthesis of linear polyamine ligands. We focused our attention to the synthesis of 2-heteroaryl- and 2,5-diheteroarylpyrrolidines. The reductive amination reaction of diarylketones and aryl-substitutedketo-aldehydes with different chiral amines was exploited to prepare a small library of diastereo-enriched substituted pyrrolidines. We have also described a new synthetic route to 1,2-disubstituted 1,2,3,4-tetrahydropyrrole[1,2-a]pyrazines, which involves the diastereoselective addition of Grignard reagents to chiral oxazolidines. The best diastereoselectivity (98:2) was dependent on the nature of both the chiral auxiliary, (S)-1-phenylglycinol, and the nature of the organometallic reagent (MeMgBr).

Closed-loop investigation of the dynamical properties of cardiomyocyte electrophysiology by means of Dynamic clamp and Mathematical modelling

The research field of my PhD concerns mathematical modeling and numerical simulation, applied to the cardiac electrophysiology analysis at a single cell level. This is possible thanks to the development of mathematical descriptions of single cellular components, ionic channels, pumps, exchangers and subcellular compartments. Due to the difficulties of vivo experiments on human cells, most of the measurements are acquired in vitro using animal models (e.g. guinea pig, dog, rabbit). Moreover, to study the cardiac action potential and all its features, it is necessary to acquire more specific knowledge about single ionic currents that contribute to the cardiac activity. Electrophysiological models of the heart have become very accurate in recent years giving rise to extremely complicated systems of differential equations. Although describing the behavior of cardiac cells quite well, the models are computationally demanding for numerical simulations and are very difficult to analyze from a mathematical (dynamical-systems) viewpoint. Simplified mathematical models that capture the underlying dynamics to a certain extent are therefore frequently used. The results presented in this thesis have confirmed that a close integration of computational modeling and experimental recordings in real myocytes, as performed by dynamic clamp, is a useful tool in enhancing our understanding of various components of normal cardiac electrophysiology, but also arrhythmogenic mechanisms in a pathological condition, especially when fully integrated with experimental data.

Mars delivery service - development of the electro-mechanical systems of the Sample Fetch Rover for the Mars Sample Return Campaign

This thesis describes the development of the Sample Fetch Rover (SFR), studied for Mars Sample Return (MSR), an international campaign carried out in cooperation between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA). The focus of this document is the design of the electro-mechanical systems of the rover. After placing this work into the general context of robotic planetary exploration and summarising the state of the art for what concerns Mars rovers, the architecture of the Mars Sample Return Campaign is presented. A complete overview of the current SFR architecture is provided, touching upon all the main subsystems of the spacecraft. For each area, it is discussed what are the design drivers, the chosen solutions and whether they use heritage technology (in particular from the ExoMars Rover) or new developments. This research focuses on two topics of particular interest, due to their relevance for the mission and the novelty of their design: locomotion and sample acquisition, which are discussed in depth. The early SFR locomotion concepts are summarised, covering the initial trade-offs and discarded designs for higher traverse performance. Once a consolidated architecture was reached, the locomotion subsystem was developed further, defining the details of the suspension, actuators, deployment mechanisms and wheels. This technology is presented here in detail, including some key analysis and test results that support the design and demonstrate how it responds to the mission requirements. Another major electro-mechanical system developed as part of this work is the one dedicated to sample tube acquisition. The concept of operations of this machinery was defined to be robust against the unknown conditions that characterise the mission. The design process led to a highly automated robotic system which is described here in its main components: vision system, robotic arm and tube storage.

Dynamics and control issues of multi-rotor platforms

This thesis deals with the analytic study of dynamics of Multi--Rotor Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. It is conceived to give a set of mathematical instruments apt to the theoretical study and design of these flying machines. The entire work is organized in analogy with classical academic texts about airplane flight dynamics. First, the non--linear equations of motion are defined and all the external actions are modeled, with particular attention to rotors aerodynamics. All the equations are provided in a form, and with personal expedients, to be directly exploitable in a simulation environment. This has requited an answer to questions like the trim of such mathematical systems. All the treatment is developed aiming at the description of different multi--rotor configurations. Then, the linearized equations of motion are derived. The computation of the stability and control derivatives of the linear model is carried out. The study of static and dynamic stability characteristics is, thus, addressed, showing the influence of the various geometric and aerodynamic parameters of the machine and in particular of the rotors. All the theoretic results are finally utilized in two interesting cases. One concerns the design of control systems for attitude stabilization. The linear model permits the tuning of linear controllers gains and the non--linear model allows the numerical testing. The other case is the study of the performances of an innovative configuration of quad--rotor aircraft. With the non--linear model the feasibility of maneuvers impossible for a traditional quad--rotor is assessed. The linear model is applied to the controllability analysis of such an aircraft in case of actuator block.