8 resultados para Sparse time-varying VAR models

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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The last decades have seen a large effort of the scientific community to study and understand the physics of sea ice. We currently have a wide - even though still not exhaustive - knowledge of the sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics and of their temporal and spatial variability. Sea ice biogeochemistry is instead largely unknown. Sea ice algae production may account for up to 25% of overall primary production in ice-covered waters of the Southern Ocean. However, the influence of physical factors, such as the location of ice formation, the role of snow cover and light availability on sea ice primary production is poorly understood. There are only sparse localized observations and little knowledge of the functioning of sea ice biogeochemistry at larger scales. Modelling becomes then an auxiliary tool to help qualifying and quantifying the role of sea ice biogeochemistry in the ocean dynamics. In this thesis, a novel approach is used for the modelling and coupling of sea ice biogeochemistry - and in particular its primary production - to sea ice physics. Previous attempts were based on the coupling of rather complex sea ice physical models to empirical or relatively simple biological or biogeochemical models. The focus is moved here to a more biologically-oriented point of view. A simple, however comprehensive, physical model of the sea ice thermodynamics (ESIM) was developed and coupled to a novel sea ice implementation (BFM-SI) of the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM). The BFM is a comprehensive model, largely used and validated in the open ocean environment and in regional seas. The physical model has been developed having in mind the biogeochemical properties of sea ice and the physical inputs required to model sea ice biogeochemistry. The central concept of the coupling is the modelling of the Biologically-Active-Layer (BAL), which is the time-varying fraction of sea ice that is continuously connected to the ocean via brines pockets and channels and it acts as rich habitat for many microorganisms. The physical model provides the key physical properties of the BAL (e.g., brines volume, temperature and salinity), and the BFM-SI simulates the physiological and ecological response of the biological community to the physical enviroment. The new biogeochemical model is also coupled to the pelagic BFM through the exchange of organic and inorganic matter at the boundaries between the two systems . This is done by computing the entrapment of matter and gases when sea ice grows and release to the ocean when sea ice melts to ensure mass conservation. The model was tested in different ice-covered regions of the world ocean to test the generality of the parameterizations. The focus was particularly on the regions of landfast ice, where primary production is generally large. The implementation of the BFM in sea ice and the coupling structure in General Circulation Models will add a new component to the latters (and in general to Earth System Models), which will be able to provide adequate estimate of the role and importance of sea ice biogeochemistry in the global carbon cycle.

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It is not unknown that the evolution of firm theories has been developed along a path paved by an increasing awareness of the organizational structure importance. From the early “neoclassical” conceptualizations that intended the firm as a rational actor whose aim is to produce that amount of output, given the inputs at its disposal and in accordance to technological or environmental constraints, which maximizes the revenue (see Boulding, 1942 for a past mid century state of the art discussion) to the knowledge based theory of the firm (Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995; Nonaka & Toyama, 2005), which recognizes in the firm a knnowledge creating entity, with specific organizational capabilities (Teece, 1996; Teece & Pisano, 1998) that allow to sustaine competitive advantages. Tracing back a map of the theory of the firm evolution, taking into account the several perspectives adopted in the history of thought, would take the length of many books. Because of that a more fruitful strategy is circumscribing the focus of the description of the literature evolution to one flow connected to a crucial question about the nature of firm’s behaviour and about the determinants of competitive advantages. In so doing I adopt a perspective that allows me to consider the organizational structure of the firm as an element according to which the different theories can be discriminated. The approach adopted starts by considering the drawbacks of the standard neoclassical theory of the firm. Discussing the most influential theoretical approaches I end up with a close examination of the knowledge based perspective of the firm. Within this perspective the firm is considered as a knowledge creating entity that produce and mange knowledge (Nonaka, Toyama, & Nagata, 2000; Nonaka & Toyama, 2005). In a knowledge intensive organization, knowledge is clearly embedded for the most part in the human capital of the individuals that compose such an organization. In a knowledge based organization, the management, in order to cope with knowledge intensive productions, ought to develop and accumulate capabilities that shape the organizational forms in a way that relies on “cross-functional processes, extensive delayering and empowerment” (Foss 2005, p.12). This mechanism contributes to determine the absorptive capacity of the firm towards specific technologies and, in so doing, it also shape the technological trajectories along which the firm moves. After having recognized the growing importance of the firm’s organizational structure in the theoretical literature concerning the firm theory, the subsequent point of the analysis is that of providing an overview of the changes that have been occurred at micro level to the firm’s organization of production. The economic actors have to deal with challenges posed by processes of internationalisation and globalization, increased and increasing competitive pressure of less developed countries on low value added production activities, changes in technologies and increased environmental turbulence and volatility. As a consequence, it has been widely recognized that the main organizational models of production that fitted well in the 20th century are now partially inadequate and processes aiming to reorganize production activities have been widespread across several economies in recent years. Recently, the emergence of a “new” form of production organization has been proposed both by scholars, practitioners and institutions: the most prominent characteristic of such a model is its recognition of the importance of employees commitment and involvement. As a consequence it is characterized by a strong accent on the human resource management and on those practices that aim to widen the autonomy and responsibility of the workers as well as increasing their commitment to the organization (Osterman, 1994; 2000; Lynch, 2007). This “model” of production organization is by many defined as High Performance Work System (HPWS). Despite the increasing diffusion of workplace practices that may be inscribed within the concept of HPWS in western countries’ companies, it is an hazard, to some extent, to speak about the emergence of a “new organizational paradigm”. The discussion about organizational changes and the diffusion of HPWP the focus cannot abstract from a discussion about the industrial relations systems, with a particular accent on the employment relationships, because of their relevance, in the same way as production organization, in determining two major outcomes of the firm: innovation and economic performances. The argument is treated starting from the issue of the Social Dialogue at macro level, both in an European perspective and Italian perspective. The model of interaction between the social parties has repercussions, at micro level, on the employment relationships, that is to say on the relations between union delegates and management or workers and management. Finding economic and social policies capable of sustaining growth and employment within a knowledge based scenario is likely to constitute the major challenge for the next generation of social pacts, which are the main social dialogue outcomes. As Acocella and Leoni (2007) put forward the social pacts may constitute an instrument to trade wage moderation for high intensity in ICT, organizational and human capital investments. Empirical evidence, especially focused on the micro level, about the positive relation between economic growth and new organizational designs coupled with ICT adoption and non adversarial industrial relations is growing. Partnership among social parties may become an instrument to enhance firm competitiveness. The outcome of the discussion is the integration of organizational changes and industrial relations elements within a unified framework: the HPWS. Such a choice may help in disentangling the potential existence of complementarities between these two aspects of the firm internal structure on economic and innovative performance. With the third chapter starts the more original part of the thesis. The data utilized in order to disentangle the relations between HPWS practices, innovation and economic performance refer to the manufacturing firms of the Reggio Emilia province with more than 50 employees. The data have been collected through face to face interviews both to management (199 respondents) and to union representatives (181 respondents). Coupled with the cross section datasets a further data source is constituted by longitudinal balance sheets (1994-2004). Collecting reliable data that in turn provide reliable results needs always a great effort to which are connected uncertain results. Data at micro level are often subjected to a trade off: the wider is the geographical context to which the population surveyed belong the lesser is the amount of information usually collected (low level of resolution); the narrower is the focus on specific geographical context, the higher is the amount of information usually collected (high level of resolution). For the Italian case the evidence about the diffusion of HPWP and their effects on firm performances is still scanty and usually limited to local level studies (Cristini, et al., 2003). The thesis is also devoted to the deepening of an argument of particular interest: the existence of complementarities between the HPWS practices. It has been widely shown by empirical evidence that when HPWP are adopted in bundles they are more likely to impact on firm’s performances than when adopted in isolation (Ichniowski, Prennushi, Shaw, 1997). Is it true also for the local production system of Reggio Emilia? The empirical analysis has the precise aim of providing evidence on the relations between the HPWS dimensions and the innovative and economic performances of the firm. As far as the first line of analysis is concerned it must to be stressed the fundamental role that innovation plays in the economy (Geroski & Machin, 1993; Stoneman & Kwoon 1994, 1996; OECD, 2005; EC, 2002). On this point the evidence goes from the traditional innovations, usually approximated by R&D investment expenditure or number of patents, to the introduction and adoption of ICT, in the recent years (Brynjolfsson & Hitt, 2000). If innovation is important then it is critical to analyse its determinants. In this work it is hypothesised that organizational changes and firm level industrial relations/employment relations aspects that can be put under the heading of HPWS, influence the propensity to innovate in product, process and quality of the firm. The general argument may goes as follow: changes in production management and work organization reconfigure the absorptive capacity of the firm towards specific technologies and, in so doing, they shape the technological trajectories along which the firm moves; cooperative industrial relations may lead to smother adoption of innovations, because not contrasted by unions. From the first empirical chapter emerges that the different types of innovations seem to respond in different ways to the HPWS variables. The underlying processes of product, process and quality innovations are likely to answer to different firm’s strategies and needs. Nevertheless, it is possible to extract some general results in terms of the most influencing HPWS factors on innovative performance. The main three aspects are training coverage, employees involvement and the diffusion of bonuses. These variables show persistent and significant relations with all the three innovation types. The same do the components having such variables at their inside. In sum the aspects of the HPWS influence the propensity to innovate of the firm. At the same time, emerges a quite neat (although not always strong) evidence of complementarities presence between HPWS practices. In terns of the complementarity issue it can be said that some specific complementarities exist. Training activities, when adopted and managed in bundles, are related to the propensity to innovate. Having a sound skill base may be an element that enhances the firm’s capacity to innovate. It may enhance both the capacity to absorbe exogenous innovation and the capacity to endogenously develop innovations. The presence and diffusion of bonuses and the employees involvement also spur innovative propensity. The former because of their incentive nature and the latter because direct workers participation may increase workers commitment to the organizationa and thus their willingness to support and suggest inovations. The other line of analysis provides results on the relation between HPWS and economic performances of the firm. There have been a bulk of international empirical studies on the relation between organizational changes and economic performance (Black & Lynch 2001; Zwick 2004; Janod & Saint-Martin 2004; Huselid 1995; Huselid & Becker 1996; Cappelli & Neumark 2001), while the works aiming to capture the relations between economic performance and unions or industrial relations aspects are quite scant (Addison & Belfield, 2001; Pencavel, 2003; Machin & Stewart, 1990; Addison, 2005). In the empirical analysis the integration of the two main areas of the HPWS represent a scarcely exploited approach in the panorama of both national and international empirical studies. As remarked by Addison “although most analysis of workers representation and employee involvement/high performance work practices have been conducted in isolation – while sometimes including the other as controls – research is beginning to consider their interactions” (Addison, 2005, p.407). The analysis conducted exploiting temporal lags between dependent and covariates, possibility given by the merger of cross section and panel data, provides evidence in favour of the existence of HPWS practices impact on firm’s economic performance, differently measured. Although it does not seem to emerge robust evidence on the existence of complementarities among HPWS aspects on performances there is evidence of a general positive influence of the single practices. The results are quite sensible to the time lags, inducing to hypothesize that time varying heterogeneity is an important factor in determining the impact of organizational changes on economic performance. The implications of the analysis can be of help both to management and local level policy makers. Although the results are not simply extendible to other local production systems it may be argued that for contexts similar to the Reggio Emilia province, characterized by the presence of small and medium enterprises organized in districts and by a deep rooted unionism, with strong supporting institutions, the results and the implications here obtained can also fit well. However, a hope for future researches on the subject treated in the present work is that of collecting good quality information over wider geographical areas, possibly at national level, and repeated in time. Only in this way it is possible to solve the Gordian knot about the linkages between innovation, performance, high performance work practices and industrial relations.

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In the first chapter, I develop a panel no-cointegration test which extends Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001)'s bounds test to the panel framework by considering the individual regressions in a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) system. This allows to take into account unobserved common factors that contemporaneously affect all the units of the panel and provides, at the same time, unit-specific test statistics. Moreover, the approach is particularly suited when the number of individuals of the panel is small relatively to the number of time series observations. I develop the algorithm to implement the test and I use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the properties of the test. The small sample properties of the test are remarkable, compared to its single equation counterpart. I illustrate the use of the test through a test of Purchasing Power Parity in a panel of EU15 countries. In the second chapter of my PhD thesis, I verify the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure in the repurchasing agreements (repo) market with a new testing approach. I consider an "inexact" formulation of the EHTS, which models a time-varying component in the risk premia and I treat the interest rates as a non-stationary cointegrated system. The effect of the heteroskedasticity is controlled by means of testing procedures (bootstrap and heteroskedasticity correction) which are robust to variance and covariance shifts over time. I fi#nd that the long-run implications of EHTS are verified. A rolling window analysis clarifies that the EHTS is only rejected in periods of turbulence of #financial markets. The third chapter introduces the Stata command "bootrank" which implements the bootstrap likelihood ratio rank test algorithm developed by Cavaliere et al. (2012). The command is illustrated through an empirical application on the term structure of interest rates in the US.

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The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of the pulsed electromagnetic fields (PEMFS) on pain relief and functional capacity of dogs with osteoarthritis by which a single centre study prospective clinical trial. PEMFs are non ionized, athermic and time varying electromagnetic fields that has been successfully used for the treatment of osteoarthritis in human thanks to their chondroprotective, antinflammatory and analgesic property. 20 dogs were treated with PEMFs , 3 times per week for a total of 20 sessions.We found beneficial effects on pain relief and lameness in the absence of adverse effect. The decrease of pain impacted positively on the health-dogs related quality of life and the grade of satisfaction of their owner was very high. The benefits were obvious at half therapy and lasted for a medium long time. This is the first published report concerning PEMFs treatment on canine osteoarthtitis. The result of this study proves that PEMFs is a non –invasive remedy, lacking in adverse effect , easy to employ and useful for controlling pain and inflammation associated with osteoarthritis.

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E’ mostrata l’analisi e la modellazione di dati termocronologici di bassa temperatura da due regioni Alpine: il Sempione ed il Brennero. Le faglie distensive presenti bordano settori crostali profondi appartenenti al dominio penninico: il duomo metamorfico Lepontino al Sempione e la finestra dei Tauri al Brennero. I dati utilizzati sono FT e (U-Th)/He su apatite. Per il Sempione i dati provengono dalla bibliografia; per il Brennero si è provveduto ad un nuovo campionamento, sia in superficie che in sotterraneo. Gli attuali lavori per la galleria di base del Brennero (BBT), hanno consentito, per la prima volta, di raccogliere dati di FT e (U-Th)/He in apatite in sottosuolo per la finestra dei Tauri occidentale. Le analisi sono state effettuate tramite un codice a elementi finiti, Pecube, risolvente l’equazione di diffusione del calore per una topografia evolvente nel tempo. Il codice è stato modificato per tener conto dei dati sotterranei. L’inversione dei dati è stata effettuata usando il Neighbourhood Algorithm (NA), per ottenere il più plausibile scenario di evoluzione morfotettonico. I risultati ottenuti per il Sempione mostrano: ipotetica evoluzione dello stile tettonico della faglia del Sempione da rolling hinge a low angle detachment a 6.5 Ma e la cessazione dell’attività a 3 Ma; costruzione del rilievo fino a 5.5 Ma, smantellamento da 5.5 Ma ad oggi, in coincidenza dei cambiamenti climatici Messiniani e relativi all’inizio delle maggiori glaciazioni; incremento dell’esumazione da 0–0.6 mm/anno a 0.6–1.2 mm/anno a 2.4 Ma nell’emisfero settentrionale. I risultati al Brennero mostrano: maggiore attività tettonica della faglia del Brennero (1.3 mm/anno), maggiore attività esumativa (1–2 mm/anno) prima dei 10 Ma; crollo dell’attività della faglia del Brennero fra 10 Ma e oggi (0.1 mm/anno) e dell’attività esumativa nello stesso periodo (0.1–0.3 mm/anno); nessun aumento del tasso esumativo o variazioni topografiche negli ultimi 5 Ma.

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The research activity characterizing the present thesis was mainly centered on the design, development and validation of methodologies for the estimation of stationary and time-varying connectivity between different regions of the human brain during specific complex cognitive tasks. Such activity involved two main aspects: i) the development of a stable, consistent and reproducible procedure for functional connectivity estimation with a high impact on neuroscience field and ii) its application to real data from healthy volunteers eliciting specific cognitive processes (attention and memory). In particular the methodological issues addressed in the present thesis consisted in finding out an approach to be applied in neuroscience field able to: i) include all the cerebral sources in connectivity estimation process; ii) to accurately describe the temporal evolution of connectivity networks; iii) to assess the significance of connectivity patterns; iv) to consistently describe relevant properties of brain networks. The advancement provided in this thesis allowed finding out quantifiable descriptors of cognitive processes during a high resolution EEG experiment involving subjects performing complex cognitive tasks.

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The topic of this thesis is the feedback stabilization of the attitude of magnetically actuated spacecraft. The use of magnetic coils is an attractive solution for the generation of control torques on small satellites flying inclined low Earth orbits, since magnetic control systems are characterized by reduced weight and cost, higher reliability, and require less power with respect to other kinds of actuators. At the same time, the possibility of smooth modulation of control torques reduces coupling of the attitude control system with flexible modes, thus preserving pointing precision with respect to the case when pulse-modulated thrusters are used. The principle based on the interaction between the Earth's magnetic field and the magnetic field generated by the set of coils introduces an inherent nonlinearity, because control torques can be delivered only in a plane that is orthogonal to the direction of the geomagnetic field vector. In other words, the system is underactuated, because the rotational degrees of freedom of the spacecraft, modeled as a rigid body, exceed the number of independent control actions. The solution of the control issue for underactuated spacecraft is also interesting in the case of actuator failure, e.g. after the loss of a reaction-wheel in a three-axes stabilized spacecraft with no redundancy. The application of well known control strategies is no longer possible in this case for both regulation and tracking, so that new methods have been suggested for tackling this particular problem. The main contribution of this thesis is to propose continuous time-varying controllers that globally stabilize the attitude of a spacecraft, when magneto-torquers alone are used and when a momentum-wheel supports magnetic control in order to overcome the inherent underactuation. A kinematic maneuver planning scheme, stability analyses, and detailed simulation results are also provided, with new theoretical developments and particular attention toward application considerations.

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This thesis gives an overview of the history of gold per se, of gold as an investment good and offers some institutional details about gold and other precious metal markets. The goal of this study is to investigate the role of gold as a store of value and hedge against negative market movements in turbulent times. I investigate gold’s ability to act as a safe haven during periods of financial stress by employing instrumental variable techniques that allow for time varying conditional covariance. I find broad evidence supporting the view that gold acts as an anchor of stability during market downturns. During periods of high uncertainty and low stock market returns, gold tends to have higher than average excess returns. The effectiveness of gold as a safe haven is enhanced during periods of extreme crises: the largest peaks are observed during the global financial crises of 2007-2009 and, in particular, during the Lehman default (October 2008). A further goal of this thesis is to investigate whether gold provides protection from tail risk. I address the issue of asymmetric precious metal behavior conditioned to stock market performance and provide empirical evidence about the contribution of gold to a portfolio’s systematic skewness and kurtosis. I find that gold has positive coskewness with the market portfolio when the market is skewed to the left. Moreover, gold shows low cokurtosis with the market returns during volatile periods. I therefore show that gold is a desirable investment good to risk averse investors, since it tends to decrease the probability of experiencing extreme bad outcomes, and the magnitude of losses in case such events occur. Gold thus bears very important and under-researched characteristics as an asset class per se, which this thesis contributed to address and unveil.