Predictability in Social Science, The statistical mechanics approach.

The subject of this work concerns the study of the immigration phenomenon, with emphasis on the aspects related to the integration of an immigrant population in a hosting one. Aim of this work is to show the forecasting ability of a recent finding where the behavior of integration quantifiers was analyzed and investigated with a mathematical model of statistical physics origins (a generalization of the monomer dimer model). After providing a detailed literature review of the model, we show that not only such a model is able to identify the social mechanism that drives a particular integration process, but it also provides correct forecast. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

Embedded representations of social interactions

Social interactions have been the focus of social science research for a century, but their study has recently been revolutionized by novel data sources and by methods from computer science, network science, and complex systems science. The study of social interactions is crucial for understanding complex societal behaviours. Social interactions are naturally represented as networks, which have emerged as a unifying mathematical language to understand structural and dynamical aspects of socio-technical systems. Networks are, however, highly dimensional objects, especially when considering the scales of real-world systems and the need to model the temporal dimension. Hence the study of empirical data from social systems is challenging both from a conceptual and a computational standpoint. A possible approach to tackling such a challenge is to use dimensionality reduction techniques that represent network entities in a low-dimensional feature space, preserving some desired properties of the original data. Low-dimensional vector space representations, also known as network embeddings, have been extensively studied, also as a way to feed network data to machine learning algorithms. Network embeddings were initially developed for static networks and then extended to incorporate temporal network data. We focus on dimensionality reduction techniques for time-resolved social interaction data modelled as temporal networks. We introduce a novel embedding technique that models the temporal and structural similarities of events rather than nodes. Using empirical data on social interactions, we show that this representation captures information relevant for the study of dynamical processes unfolding over the network, such as epidemic spreading. We then turn to another large-scale dataset on social interactions: a popular Web-based crowdfunding platform. We show that tensor-based representations of the data and dimensionality reduction techniques such as tensor factorization allow us to uncover the structural and temporal aspects of the system and to relate them to geographic and temporal activity patterns.

Understanding, defining and assessing food systems’ social and economic sustainability indicators: implementation of mixed methodologies for policy insights

Sustainability encompasses the presence of three dimensions that must coexist simultaneously, namely the environmental, social, and economic ones. The economic and social dimensions are gaining the spotlight in recent years, especially within food systems. To assess social and economic impacts, indicators and tools play a fundamental role in contributing to the achievements of sustainability targets, although few of them have deepen the focus on social and economic impacts. Moreover, in a framework of citizen science and bottom-up approach for improving food systems, citizen play a key role in defying their priorities in terms of social and economic interventions. This research expands the knowledge of social and economic sustainability indicators within the food systems for robust policy insights and interventions. This work accomplishes the following objectives: 1) to define social and economic indicators within the supply chain with a stakeholder perspective, 2) to test social and economic sustainability indicators for future food systems engaging young generations. The first objective was accomplished through the development of a systematic literature review of 34 social sustainability tools, based on five food supply chain stages, namely production, processing, wholesale, retail, and consumer considering farmers, workers, consumers, and society as stakeholders. The second objective was achieved by defining and testing new food systems social and economic sustainability indicators through youth engagement for informed and robust policy insights, to provide policymakers suggestions that would incorporate young generations ones. Future food systems scenarios were evaluated by youth through focus groups, whose results were analyzed through NVivo and then through a survey with a wider platform. Conclusion addressed the main areas of policy interventions in terms of social and economic aspects of sustainable food systems youth pointed out as in need of interventions, spanning from food labelling reporting sustainable origins to better access to online food services.

Social Cognition: New Insights from Affordance and Simon Effects

The perspective of the present project can be inscribed in the so-called “Social Cognition” framework, that in the last years moved from a focus on the individual mind toward embodied and participatory aspects of social understanding. Among the topics relevant for social cognition, the aim of the thesis was to shed more light on motor resonance and joint action, by using two well-known effects of cognitive psychology: “Affordance” and “Simon”. In the first part of the project, the Affordance effect has been considered, starting from Gibson to some post-Gibsonian theorizations. Particular attention has received the notion of “Micro-affordance”. The theoretical and empirical overview allows to understand how it can be possible to use the affordance effect to investigate the issue of motor resonance. A first study employed a priming paradigm and explored both in adults and school-age children the influence of a micro-affordance that can be defined dangerousness, and how motor resonance develops. The second part of the thesis focused on the Simon effect, starting with the presentation of the “stimulus–response (S–R) compatibility effect” to introduce the “Simon effect”. Particular attention has been dedicated to recent studies on the “joint Simon effect”. The reviewed empirical findings have been discussed in a wider theoretical perspective on joint action. The second study was aimed at investigating whether shared representations, as indexed by the presence of the joint Simon effect, are modulated by minimal ingroup–outgroup distinctions and by experienced interdependence between participants. The third study explored to what extent prior experience could modulate performance in task sharing, combining two paradigms of cognitive psychology, the joint Simon and the joint transfer-of-learning. In a general discussion the results obtained in the three studies have been summarized, emphasizing their original contribution and their importance within the Social Cognition research.

Beatrice Potter e la signora Webb. La politica come amministrazione del carattere

La tesi affronta la vita e la riflessione politica di Beatrice Potter collocandola all’interno del pensiero politico britannico ed europeo della fine dell’Ottocento e dei primi decenni del Novecento. Rispetto alla maggior parte della bibliografia disponibile, risulta un’autonomia e un’originalità anche rispetto alla riflessione del marito Sidney Webb. La riflessione politica di Potter è caratterizzata in primo luogo dalla ricerca del significato immediatamente politico di quella scienza sociale, che si sta affermando come approccio scientifico dominante nell’intero panorama europeo. Il lavoro è diviso in tre ampi capitoli così suddivisi: il primo ricostruisce l’eredità intellettuale di Potter, con particolare attenzione al rapporto con la filosofia evoluzionista di Herbert Spencer, suo mentore e amico. In questo capitolo vengono anche discussi i contributi di John Stuart Mill, Joseph Chamberlain, Alfred Marshall e Karl Marx e la loro influenza sull’opera di Potter. Il secondo capitolo prende in esame la sua opera prima dell’incontro con il marito e mostra come lo studio della povertà, del lavoro, della metropoli, della cooperazione e delle condizioni delle donne getti le basi di tutta la produzione successiva della partnership. Lo studio politico della povertà, cioè la messa a punto di una scienza amministrativa del carattere sociale del lavoro, rappresenta uno degli elementi principali di quella che viene qui definita un’epistemologia della democrazia. Il terzo capitolo riprende il tema cruciale della democrazia nella sua accezione «industriale» e indaga il ruolo funzionale dello Stato, anche in relazione alla teoria pluralista di Harold Laski, al socialismo guildista di George D. H. Cole e all’idealismo di Bernard Bosanquet. Centrale in questo confronto del pensiero di Potter con il più ampio dibattito degli anni venti e trenta sulla sovranità è la concezione della decadenza della civiltà capitalista e dell’emergere di una new civilisation, dopo la conversione al comunismo sovietico.

Sviluppo di metodologie innovative di supporto decisionale alla progettazione basate su indicatori di prestazione

Il progetto di ricerca è finalizzato allo sviluppo di una metodologia innovativa di supporto decisionale nel processo di selezione tra alternative progettuali, basata su indicatori di prestazione. In particolare il lavoro si è focalizzato sulla definizione d’indicatori atti a supportare la decisione negli interventi di sbottigliamento di un impianto di processo. Sono stati sviluppati due indicatori, “bottleneck indicators”, che permettono di valutare la reale necessità dello sbottigliamento, individuando le cause che impediscono la produzione e lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature. Questi sono stati validati attraverso l’applicazione all’analisi di un intervento su un impianto esistente e verificando che lo sfruttamento delle apparecchiature fosse correttamente individuato. Definita la necessità dell’intervento di sbottigliamento, è stato affrontato il problema della selezione tra alternative di processo possibili per realizzarlo. È stato applicato alla scelta un metodo basato su indicatori di sostenibilità che consente di confrontare le alternative considerando non solo il ritorno economico degli investimenti ma anche gli impatti su ambiente e sicurezza, e che è stato ulteriormente sviluppato in questa tesi. Sono stati definiti due indicatori, “area hazard indicators”, relativi alle emissioni fuggitive, per integrare questi aspetti nell’analisi della sostenibilità delle alternative. Per migliorare l’accuratezza nella quantificazione degli impatti è stato sviluppato un nuovo modello previsionale atto alla stima delle emissioni fuggitive di un impianto, basato unicamente sui dati disponibili in fase progettuale, che tiene conto delle tipologie di sorgenti emettitrici, dei loro meccanismi di perdita e della manutenzione. Validato mediante il confronto con dati sperimentali di un impianto produttivo, si è dimostrato che tale metodo è indispensabile per un corretto confronto delle alternative poiché i modelli esistenti sovrastimano eccessivamente le emissioni reali. Infine applicando gli indicatori ad un impianto esistente si è dimostrato che sono fondamentali per semplificare il processo decisionale, fornendo chiare e precise indicazioni impiegando un numero limitato di informazioni per ricavarle.