Multilevel Analysis in Household Survey: An Application to Health Condition Data

The aim of this thesis is to apply multilevel regression model in context of household surveys. Hierarchical structure in this type of data is characterized by many small groups. In last years comparative and multilevel analysis in the field of perceived health have grown in size. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a multilevel analysis with three level of hierarchy for Physical Component Summary outcome to: evaluate magnitude of within and between variance at each level (individual, household and municipality); explore which covariates affect on perceived physical health at each level; compare model-based and design-based approach in order to establish informativeness of sampling design; estimate a quantile regression for hierarchical data. The target population are the Italian residents aged 18 years and older. Our study shows a high degree of homogeneity within level 1 units belonging from the same group, with an intraclass correlation of 27% in a level-2 null model. Almost all variance is explained by level 1 covariates. In fact, in our model the explanatory variables having more impact on the outcome are disability, unable to work, age and chronic diseases (18 pathologies). An additional analysis are performed by using novel procedure of analysis :"Linear Quantile Mixed Model", named "Multilevel Linear Quantile Regression", estimate. This give us the possibility to describe more generally the conditional distribution of the response through the estimation of its quantiles, while accounting for the dependence among the observations. This has represented a great advantage of our models with respect to classic multilevel regression. The median regression with random effects reveals to be more efficient than the mean regression in representation of the outcome central tendency. A more detailed analysis of the conditional distribution of the response on other quantiles highlighted a differential effect of some covariate along the distribution.

Small molecules exploiting emerging therapeutic opportunities for breast cancer treatment

Among the different types of breast cancer (BC), the estrogen receptor positive (ER+) subtype, which requires estrogens for its growth and proliferation, is the most common, while triple negative BC, characterized by the absence of ER, progesterone receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, often leads to poor prognosis. First-line therapies for the treatment of ER+ BC act either by suppressing estrogen production, through the inhibition of aromatase (AR) enzyme, or by blocking estrogen prooncogenic activity, via the modulation/degradation of ERs. The serious side effects and the intrinsic or acquired resistance phenomena that arise with prolonged use of these drugs limit their therapeutic application, stimulating the search for new strategies to face this disease. In this context, the development of dual acting aromatase inhibitors, able to target both the orthosteric and the recently identified allosteric pockets of AR could be an opportunity to fight ER+ BC. Another promising strategy could be the development of multitarget compounds, targeting both AR and ERs. In this scenario, here we designed and synthesized two series of new xanthones or more flexible benzophenones as potential dual acting aromatase inhibitors. Moreover, inspired from tamoxifen metabolites and a literature compound endowed with activity on both AR and ER, different structurally related series of potential multitarget compounds were developed. The biological results showed that some of the new molecules were promising candidates for further development. It was recently observed that the lately discovered histamine H4 receptor is expressed in human breast tissue, displaying a key role in biological processes mediated by histamine such as cell proliferation, senescence, and apoptosis in malignant cells, representing a potential target in triple negative BC. Thus, a broad series of methyl quinazoline sulfonamides, carrying different functional groups on the sulfonamide moiety, were designed and synthesized as potential H4 receptor ligands.

Small Area Estimation of Economic Security

The objective of this thesis is the small area estimation of an economic security indicator. Economic security is a complex concept that carries a variety of meanings. In the literature there is no a formal unambiguous definition for economic security and in this work we refer to the definition recently provided for its opposite, economic insecurity, as the “anxiety produced by the possible exposure to adverse economic events and by the anticipation of the difficulty to recover from them” (Bossert and D’Ambrosio, 2013). In the last decade interest for economic insecurity/security has grown constantly, especially since the financial crisis of 2008, but even more in the last year after the economic consequences due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In this research, economic security is measures through a longitudinal indicator that takes into account the income levels of Italian households, from 2014 to 2016. The target areas are groups of Italian provinces, for which the indicator is estimated using longitudinal data taken from EU-SILC survey. We notice that the sample size is too low to obtain reliable estimates for our target areas. Therefore we resort to some Small Area Estimation strategies to improve the reliability of the results. In particular we consider small area models specified at area level. Besides the basic Fay-Herriot area-level model, we propose to consider some longitudinal extensions, including time-specific random effects following an autoregressive processes of order 1 (AR1) and a moving average of order 1 (MA1). We found that all the small area models used show a significant efficiency gain, especially MA1 model.

Medial Artery Calcification (MAC) e Small Artery Disease (SAD) nei pazienti con ischemia critica degli arti inferiori: definizione dei fattori predisponenti, svilup-po di uno score prognostico, definizione istopatologica e valutazione dei risultati dell'arterializzazione delle vene dell'arto inferiore come tecnica di rivascolarizzazione

Questo studio si concentra sull'ischemia critica cronica dell'arto inferiore (CLTI), una patologia globale con gravi complicanze e impatto sociale elevato. Recentemente, la "Medial Artery Calcification" (MAC) è emersa come fattore prognostico significativo nei pazienti con CLTI e malattia grave dei vasi del piede, ma le informazioni sono principalmente retrospettive. Questa tesi esplora la relazione tra MAC e CLTI in tre sezioni. Nella sezione clinica, 248 pazienti sono stati divisi in gruppi MAC per valutare l'impatto prospettico sulla guarigione e sul salvataggio dell'arto. Nella sezione isto-patologica, campioni arteriosi di 26 pazienti sottoposti ad amputazione maggiore sono stati analizzati per comprendere la relazione tra MAC, aterosclerosi e occlusione vascolare. Nella sezione di arterializzazione, 16 pazienti sottoposti all'arterializzazione delle vene del piede (AVP) sono stati esaminati per valutare i risultati clinici prospettici. I risultati della sezione clinica indicano che la presenza di MAC severa è associata a risultati clinici peggiori nei pazienti affetti da CLTI. L'analisi isto-patologica mostra una prevalenza elevata di MAC rispetto all'aterosclerosi, con una associazione importante tra MAC e iperplasia intimale. L'AVP presenta risultati promettenti nei pazienti affetti da CLTI. In conclusione, la MAC influisce sui risultati clinici della CLTI, e l'AVP potrebbe essere una strategia efficace di trattamento.