Analysis of slip distribution of large earthquakes oriented to tsunamigenesis characterisation

The present thesis focuses on the on-fault slip distribution of large earthquakes in the framework of tsunami hazard assessment and tsunami warning improvement. It is widely known that ruptures on seismic faults are strongly heterogeneous. In the case of tsunamigenic earthquakes, the slip heterogeneity strongly influences the spatial distribution of the largest tsunami effects along the nearest coastlines. Unfortunately, after an earthquake occurs, the so-called finite-fault models (FFM) describing the coseismic on-fault slip pattern becomes available over time scales that are incompatible with early tsunami warning purposes, especially in the near field. Our work aims to characterize the slip heterogeneity in a fast, but still suitable way. Using finite-fault models to build a starting dataset of seismic events, the characteristics of the fault planes are studied with respect to the magnitude. The patterns of the slip distribution on the rupture plane, analysed with a cluster identification algorithm, reveal a preferential single-asperity representation that can be approximated by a two-dimensional Gaussian slip distribution (2D GD). The goodness of the 2D GD model is compared to other distributions used in literature and its ability to represent the slip heterogeneity in the form of the main asperity is proven. The magnitude dependence of the 2D GD parameters is investigated and turns out to be of primary importance from an early warning perspective. The Gaussian model is applied to the 16 September 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and used to compute early tsunami predictions that are satisfactorily compared with the available observations. The fast computation of the 2D GD and its suitability in representing the slip complexity of the seismic source make it a useful tool for the tsunami early warning assessments, especially for what concerns the near field.

Effects of environmental complexity on neurogenesis in the hippocampal dentate gyrus

Introduction. Postnatal neurogenesis in the hippocampal dentate gyrus, can be modulated by numerous determinants, such as hormones, transmitters and stress. Among the factors positively interfering with neurogenesis, the complexity of the environment appears to play a particularly striking role. Adult mice reared in an enriched environment produce more neurons and exhibit better performance in hippocampus-specific learning tasks. While the effects of complex environments on hippocampal neurogenesis are well documented, there is a lack of information on the effects of living under socio-sensory deprivation conditions. Due to the immaturity of rats and mice at birth, studies dealing with the effects of environmental enrichment on hippocampal neurogenesis were carried out in adult animals, i.e. during a period of relatively low rate of neurogenesis. The impact of environment is likely to be more dramatic during the first postnatal weeks, because at this time granule cell production is remarkably higher than at later phases of development. The aim of the present research was to clarify whether and to what extent isolated or enriched rearing conditions affect hippocampal neurogenesis during the early postnatal period, a time window characterized by a high rate of precursor proliferation and to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these effects. The experimental model chosen for this research was the guinea pig, a precocious rodent, which, at 4-5 days of age can be independent from maternal care. Experimental design. Animals were assigned to a standard (control), an isolated, or an enriched environment a few days after birth (P5-P6). On P14-P17 animals received one daily bromodeoxyuridine (BrdU) injection, to label dividing cells, and were sacrificed either on P18, to evaluate cell proliferation or on P45, to evaluate cell survival and differentiation. Methods. Brain sections were processed for BrdU immunhistochemistry, to quantify the new born and surviving cells. The phenotype of the surviving cells was examined by means of confocal microscopy and immunofluorescent double-labeling for BrdU and either a marker of neurons (NeuN) or a marker of astrocytes (GFAP). Apoptotic cell death was examined with the TUNEL method. Serial sections were processed for immunohistochemistry for i) vimentin, a marker of radial glial cells, ii) BDNF (brain-derived neurotrofic factor), a neurotrophin involved in neuron proliferation/survival, iii) PSA-NCAM (the polysialylated form of the neural cell adhesion molecule), a molecule associated with neuronal migration. Total granule cell number in the dentate gyrus was evaluated by stereological methods, in Nissl-stained sections. Results. Effects of isolation. In P18 isolated animals we found a reduced cell proliferation (-35%) compared to controls and a lower expression of BDNF. Though in absolute terms P45 isolated animals had less surviving cells than controls, they showed no differences in survival rate and phenotype percent distribution compared to controls. Evaluation of the absolute number of surviving cells of each phenotype showed that isolated animals had a reduced number of cells with neuronal phenotype than controls. Looking at the location of the new neurons, we found that while in control animals 76% of them had migrated to the granule cell layer, in isolated animals only 55% of the new neurons had reached this layer. Examination of radial glia cells of P18 and P45 animals by vimentin immunohistochemistry showed that in isolated animals radial glia cells were reduced in density and had less and shorter processes. Granule cell count revealed that isolated animals had less granule cells than controls (-32% at P18 and -42% at P45). Effects of enrichment. In P18 enriched animals there was an increase in cell proliferation (+26%) compared to controls and a higher expression of BDNF. Though in both groups there was a decline in the number of BrdU-positive cells by P45, enriched animals had more surviving cells (+63) and a higher survival rate than controls. No differences were found between control and enriched animals in phenotype percent distribution. Evaluation of the absolute number of cells of each phenotype showed that enriched animals had a larger number of cells of each phenotype than controls. Looking at the location of cells of each phenotype we found that enriched animals had more new neurons in the granule cell layer and more astrocytes and cells with undetermined phenotype in the hilus. Enriched animals had a higher expression of PSA-NCAM in the granule cell layer and hilus Vimentin immunohistochemistry showed that in enriched animals radial glia cells were more numerous and had more processes.. Granule cell count revealed that enriched animals had more granule cells than controls (+37% at P18 and +31% at P45). Discussion. Results show that isolation rearing reduces hippocampal cell proliferation but does not affect cell survival, while enriched rearing increases both cell proliferation and cell survival. Changes in the expression of BDNF are likely to contribute to he effects of environment on precursor cell proliferation. The reduction and increase in final number of granule neurons in isolated and enriched animals, respectively, are attributable to the effects of environment on cell proliferation and survival and not to changes in the differentiation program. As radial glia cells play a pivotal role in neuron guidance to the granule cell layer, the reduced number of radial glia cells in isolated animals and the increased number in enriched animals suggests that the size of radial glia population may change dynamically, in order to match changes in neuron production. The high PSA-NCAM expression in enriched animals may concur to favor the survival of the new neurons by facilitating their migration to the granule cell layer. Conclusions. By using a precocious rodent we could demonstrate that isolated/enriched rearing conditions, at a time window during which intense granule cell proliferation takes place, lead to a notable decrease/increase of total granule cell number. The time-course and magnitude of postnatal granule cell production in guinea pigs are more similar to the human and non-human primate condition than in rats and mice. Translation of current data to humans would imply that exposure of children to environments poor/rich of stimuli may have a notably large impact on dentate neurogenesis and, very likely, on hippocampus dependent memory functions.

Crustal heterogeneities and complexities of fault processes

In this work we study the relation between crustal heterogeneities and complexities in fault processes. The first kind of heterogeneity considered involves the concept of asperity. The presence of an asperity in the hypocentral region of the M = 6.5 earthquake of June 17-th, 2000 in the South Iceland Seismic Zone was invoked to explain the change of seismicity pattern before and after the mainshock: in particular, the spatial distribution of foreshock epicentres trends NW while the strike of the main fault is N 7◦ E and aftershocks trend accordingly; the foreshock depths were typically deeper than average aftershock depths. A model is devised which simulates the presence of an asperity in terms of a spherical inclusion, within a softer elastic medium in a transform domain with a deviatoric stress field imposed at remote distances (compressive NE − SW, tensile NW − SE). An isotropic compressive stress component is induced outside the asperity, in the direction of the compressive stress axis, and a tensile component in the direction of the tensile axis; as a consequence, fluid flow is inhibited in the compressive quadrants while it is favoured in tensile quadrants. Within the asperity the isotropic stress vanishes but the deviatoric stress increases substantially, without any significant change in the principal stress directions. Hydrofracture processes in the tensile quadrants and viscoelastic relaxation at depth may contribute to lower the effective rigidity of the medium surrounding the asperity. According to the present model, foreshocks may be interpreted as induced, close to the brittle-ductile transition, by high pressure fluids migrating upwards within the tensile quadrants; this process increases the deviatoric stress within the asperity which eventually fails, becoming the hypocenter of the mainshock, on the optimally oriented fault plane. In the second part of our work we study the complexities induced in fault processes by the layered structure of the crust. In the first model proposed we study the case in which fault bending takes place in a shallow layer. The problem can be addressed in terms of a deep vertical planar crack, interacting with a shallower inclined planar crack. An asymptotic study of the singular behaviour of the dislocation density at the interface reveals that the density distribution has an algebraic singularity at the interface of degree ω between -1 and 0, depending on the dip angle of the upper crack section and on the rigidity contrast between the two media. From the welded boundary condition at the interface between medium 1 and 2, a stress drop discontinuity condition is obtained which can be fulfilled if the stress drop in the upper medium is lower than required for a planar trough-going surface: as a corollary, a vertically dipping strike-slip fault at depth may cross the interface with a sedimentary layer, provided that the shallower section is suitably inclined (fault "refraction"); this results has important implications for our understanding of the complexity of the fault system in the SISZ; in particular, we may understand the observed offset of secondary surface fractures with respect to the strike direction of the seismic fault. The results of this model also suggest that further fractures can develop in the opposite quadrant and so a second model describing fault branching in the upper layer is proposed. As the previous model, this model can be applied only when the stress drop in the shallow layer is lower than the value prescribed for a vertical planar crack surface. Alternative solutions must be considered if the stress drop in the upper layer is higher than in the other layer, which may be the case when anelastic processes relax deviatoric stress in layer 2. In such a case one through-going crack cannot fulfil the welded boundary conditions and unwelding of the interface may take place. We have solved this problem within the theory of fracture mechanics, employing the boundary element method. The fault terminates against the interface in a T-shaped configuration, whose segments interact among each other: the lateral extent of the unwelded surface can be computed in terms of the main fault parameters and the stress field resulting in the shallower layer can be modelled. A wide stripe of high and nearly uniform shear stress develops above the unwelded surface, whose width is controlled by the lateral extension of unwelding. Secondary shear fractures may then open within this stripe, according to the Coulomb failure criterion, and the depth of open fractures opening in mixed mode may be computed and compared with the well studied fault complexities observed in the field. In absence of the T-shaped decollement structure, stress concentration above the seismic fault would be difficult to reconcile with observations, being much higher and narrower.

Complexity of N-Myc transcriptional function in childhood neuroblastoma

Myc is a transcription factor that can activate transcription of several hundreds genes by direct binding to their promoters at specific DNA sequences (E-box). However, recent studies have also shown that it can exert its biological role by repressing transcription. Such studies collectively support a model in which c-Myc-mediated repression occurs through interactions with transcription factors bound to promoter DNA regions but not through direct recognition of typical E-box sequences. Here, we investigated whether N-Myc can also repress gene transcription, and how this is mechanistically achieved. We used human neuroblastoma cells as a model system in that N-MYC amplification/over-expression represents a key prognostic marker of this tumour. By means of transcription profile analyses we could identify at least 5 genes (TRKA, p75NTR, ABCC3, TG2, p21) that are specifically repressed by N-Myc. Through a dual-step-ChIP assay and genetic dissection of gene promoters, we found that N-Myc is physically associated with gene promoters in vivo, in proximity of the transcription start site. N-Myc association with promoters requires interaction with other proteins, such as Sp1 and Miz1 transcription factors. Furthermore, we found that N-Myc may repress gene expression by interfering directly with Sp1 and/or with Miz1 activity (i.e. TRKA, p75NTR, ABCC3, p21) or by recruiting Histone Deacetylase 1 (Hdac1) (i.e. TG2). In vitro analyses show that distinct N-Myc domains can interact with Sp1, Miz1 and Hdac1, supporting the idea that Myc may participate in distinct repression complexes by interacting specifically with diverse proteins. Finally, results show that N-Myc, through repressed genes, affects important cellular functions, such as apoptosis, growth, differentiation and motility. Overall, our results support a model in which N-Myc, like c-Myc, can repress gene transcription by direct interaction with Sp1 and/or Miz1, and provide further lines of evidence on the importance of transcriptional repression by Myc factors in tumour biology.

Integrating new and traditional approaches for the estimate of slip-rates of active faults: examples from the Mw 6.3, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake area, Central Italy

This thesis is based on the integration of traditional and innovative approaches aimed at improving the normal faults seimogenic identification and characterization, focusing mainly on slip-rate estimate as a measure of the fault activity. The L’Aquila Mw 6.3 April 6, 2009 earthquake causative fault, namely the Paganica - San Demetrio fault system (PSDFS), was used as a test site. We developed a multidisciplinary and scale‐based strategy consisting of paleoseismological investigations, detailed geomorphological and geological field studies, as well as shallow geophysical imaging and an innovative application of physical properties measurements. We produced a detailed geomorphological and geological map of the PSDFS, defining its tectonic style, arrangement, kinematics, extent, geometry and internal complexities. The PSDFS is a 19 km-long tectonic structure, characterized by a complex structural setting and arranged in two main sectors: the Paganica sector to the NW, characterized by a narrow deformation zone, and the San Demetrio sector to SE, where the strain is accommodated by several tectonic structures, exhuming and dissecting a wide Quaternary basin, suggesting the occurrence of strain migration through time. The integration of all the fault displacement data and age constraints (radiocarbon dating, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and tephrochronology) helped in calculating an average Quaternary slip-rate representative for the PSDFS of 0.27 - 0.48 mm/yr. On the basis of its length (ca. 20 km) and slip per event (up to 0.8 m) we also estimated a max expected Magnitude of 6.3-6.8 for this fault. All these topics have a significant implication in terms of surface faulting hazard in the area and may contribute also to the understanding of the PSDFS seismic behavior and of the local seismic hazard.

Inferences on earthquake kinematic properties from data inversion: two different approaches

During my PhD, starting from the original formulations proposed by Bertrand et al., 2000 and Emolo & Zollo 2005, I developed inversion methods and applied then at different earthquakes. In particular large efforts have been devoted to the study of the model resolution and to the estimation of the model parameter errors. To study the source kinematic characteristics of the Christchurch earthquake we performed a joint inversion of strong-motion, GPS and InSAR data using a non-linear inversion method. Considering the complexity highlighted by superficial deformation data, we adopted a fault model consisting of two partially overlapping segments, with dimensions 15x11 and 7x7 km2, having different faulting styles. This two-fault model allows to better reconstruct the complex shape of the superficial deformation data. The total seismic moment resulting from the joint inversion is 3.0x1025 dyne.cm (Mw = 6.2) with an average rupture velocity of 2.0 km/s. Errors associated with the kinematic model have been estimated of around 20-30 %. The 2009 Aquila sequence was characterized by an intense aftershocks sequence that lasted several months. In this study we applied an inversion method that assumes as data the apparent Source Time Functions (aSTFs), to a Mw 4.0 aftershock of the Aquila sequence. The estimation of aSTFs was obtained using the deconvolution method proposed by Vallée et al., 2004. The inversion results show a heterogeneous slip distribution, characterized by two main slip patches located NW of the hypocenter, and a variable rupture velocity distribution (mean value of 2.5 km/s), showing a rupture front acceleration in between the two high slip zones. Errors of about 20% characterize the final estimated parameters.

Implicit computational complexity and probabilistic classes

The thesis applies the ICC tecniques to the probabilistic polinomial complexity classes in order to get an implicit characterization of them. The main contribution lays on the implicit characterization of PP (which stands for Probabilistic Polynomial Time) class, showing a syntactical characterisation of PP and a static complexity analyser able to recognise if an imperative program computes in Probabilistic Polynomial Time. The thesis is divided in two parts. The first part focuses on solving the problem by creating a prototype of functional language (a probabilistic variation of lambda calculus with bounded recursion) that is sound and complete respect to Probabilistic Prolynomial Time. The second part, instead, reverses the problem and develops a feasible way to verify if a program, written with a prototype of imperative programming language, is running in Probabilistic polynomial time or not. This thesis would characterise itself as one of the first step for Implicit Computational Complexity over probabilistic classes. There are still open hard problem to investigate and try to solve. There are a lot of theoretical aspects strongly connected with these topics and I expect that in the future there will be wide attention to ICC and probabilistic classes.

Institutional Complexity and Technology Transfer: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis

This Doctoral Thesis unfolds into a collection of three distinct papers that share an interest in institutional theory and technology transfer. Taking into account that organizations are increasingly exposed to a multiplicity of demands and pressures, we aim to analyze what renders this situation of institutional complexity more or less difficult to manage for organizations, and what makes organizations more or less successful in responding to it. The three studies offer a novel contribution both theoretically and empirically. In particular, the first paper “The dimensions of organizational fields for understanding institutional complexity: A theoretical framework” is a theoretical contribution that tries to better understand the relationship between institutional complexity and fields by providing a framework. The second article “Beyond institutional complexity: The case of different organizational successes in confronting multiple institutional logics” is an empirical study which aims to explore the strategies that allow organizations facing multiple logics to respond more successfully to them. The third work “ How external support may mitigate the barriers to university-industry collaboration” is oriented towards practitioners and presents a case study about technology transfer in Italy.

Extending Implicit Computational Complexity and Abstract Machines to Languages with Control

The Curry-Howard isomorphism is the idea that proofs in natural deduction can be put in correspondence with lambda terms in such a way that this correspondence is preserved by normalization. The concept can be extended from Intuitionistic Logic to other systems, such as Linear Logic. One of the nice conseguences of this isomorphism is that we can reason about functional programs with formal tools which are typical of proof systems: such analysis can also include quantitative qualities of programs, such as the number of steps it takes to terminate. Another is the possiblity to describe the execution of these programs in terms of abstract machines. In 1990 Griffin proved that the correspondence can be extended to Classical Logic and control operators. That is, Classical Logic adds the possiblity to manipulate continuations. In this thesis we see how the things we described above work in this larger context.

Probabilistic Recursion Theory and Implicit Computational Complexity

In this thesis we provide a characterization of probabilistic computation in itself, from a recursion-theoretical perspective, without reducing it to deterministic computation. More specifically, we show that probabilistic computable functions, i.e., those functions which are computed by Probabilistic Turing Machines (PTM), can be characterized by a natural generalization of Kleene's partial recursive functions which includes, among initial functions, one that returns identity or successor with probability 1/2. We then prove the equi-expressivity of the obtained algebra and the class of functions computed by PTMs. In the the second part of the thesis we investigate the relations existing between our recursion-theoretical framework and sub-recursive classes, in the spirit of Implicit Computational Complexity. More precisely, endowing predicative recurrence with a random base function is proved to lead to a characterization of polynomial-time computable probabilistic functions.

Understanding block rotation of strike-slip fault zones: Paleomagnetic and structural approach

This thesis is focused on the paleomagnetic rotation pattern inside the deforming zone of strike-slip faults, and the kinematics and geodynamics describing it. The paleomagnetic investigation carried out along both the LOFZ and the fore-arc sliver (38º-42ºS, southern Chile) revealed an asymmetric rotation pattern. East of the LOFZ and adjacent to it, rotations are up to 170° clockwise (CW) and fade out ~10 km east of fault. West of the LOFZ at 42ºS (Chiloé Island) and around 39°S (Villarrica domain) systematic CCW rotations have been observed, while at 40°-41°S (Ranco-Osorno domain) and adjacent to the LOFZ CW rotations reach up to 136° before evolving to CCW rotations at ~30 km from the fault. These data suggest a directed relation with subduction interface plate coupling. Zones of high coupling yield to a wide deforming zone (~30 km) west of the LOFZ characterized by CW rotations. Low coupling implies a weak LOFZ and a fore-arc dominated by CCW rotations related to NW-sinistral fault kinematics. The rotation pattern is consistent with a quasi-continuous crust kinematics. However, it seems unlikely that the lower crust flux can control block rotation in the upper crust, considering the cold and thick fore-arc crust. I suggest that rotations are consequence of forces applied directly on both the block edges and along the main fault, within the upper crust. Farther south, at the Austral Andes (54°S) I measured the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) of 22 Upper Cretaceous to Upper Eocene sites from the Magallanes fold-thrust belt internal domains. The data document continuous compression from the Early Cretaceous until the Late Oligocene. AMS data also show that the tectonic inversion of Jurassic extensional faults during the Late Cretaceous compressive phase may have controlled the Cenozoic kinematic evolution of the Magallanes fold-thrust belt, yielding slip partitioning.

Fractal descriptors for quantifying brain complexity in MRI

Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is the in vivo technique most commonly employed to characterize changes in brain structures. The conventional MRI-derived morphological indices are able to capture only partial aspects of brain structural complexity. Fractal geometry and its most popular index, the fractal dimension (FD), can characterize self-similar structures including grey matter (GM) and white matter (WM). Previous literature shows the need for a definition of the so-called fractal scaling window, within which each structure manifests self-similarity. This justifies the existence of fractal properties and confirms Mandelbrot’s assertion that "fractals are not a panacea; they are not everywhere". In this work, we propose a new approach to automatically determine the fractal scaling window, computing two new fractal descriptors, i.e., the minimal and maximal fractal scales (mfs and Mfs). Our method was implemented in a software package, validated on phantoms and applied on large datasets of structural MR images. We demonstrated that the FD is a useful marker of morphological complexity changes that occurred during brain development and aging and, using ultra-high magnetic field (7T) examinations, we showed that the cerebral GM has fractal properties also below the spatial scale of 1 mm. We applied our methodology in two neurological diseases. We observed the reduction of the brain structural complexity in SCA2 patients and, using a machine learning approach, proved that the cerebral WM FD is a consistent feature in predicting cognitive decline in patients with small vessel disease and mild cognitive impairment. Finally, we showed that the FD of the WM skeletons derived from diffusion MRI provides complementary information to those obtained from the FD of the WM general structure in T1-weighted images. In conclusion, the fractal descriptors of structural brain complexity are candidate biomarkers to detect subtle morphological changes during development, aging and in neurological diseases.

A take on complexity: bio-molecules and human metabolism interaction modelling for health and nutrition with machine learning

The advent of omic data production has opened many new perspectives in the quest for modelling complexity in biophysical systems. With the capability of characterizing a complex organism through the patterns of its molecular states, observed at different levels through various omics, a new paradigm of investigation is arising. In this thesis, we investigate the links between perturbations of the human organism, described as the ensemble of crosstalk of its molecular states, and health. Machine learning plays a key role within this picture, both in omic data analysis and model building. We propose and discuss different frameworks developed by the author using machine learning for data reduction, integration, projection on latent features, pattern analysis, classification and clustering of omic data, with a focus on 1H NMR metabolomic spectral data. The aim is to link different levels of omic observations of molecular states, from nanoscale to macroscale, to study perturbations such as diseases and diet interpreted as changes in molecular patterns. The first part of this work focuses on the fingerprinting of diseases, linking cellular and systemic metabolomics with genomic to asses and predict the downstream of perturbations all the way down to the enzymatic network. The second part is a set of frameworks and models, developed with 1H NMR metabolomic at its core, to study the exposure of the human organism to diet and food intake in its full complexity, from epidemiological data analysis to molecular characterization of food structure.