Financial Development and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Albania

The main objective of this thesis is to explore the short and long run causality patterns in the finance – growth nexus and finance-growth-trade nexus before and after the global financial crisis, in the case of Albania. To this end we use quarterly data on real GDP, 13 proxy measures for financial development and the trade openness indicator for the period 1998Q1 – 2013Q2 and 1998Q1-2008Q3. Causality patterns will be explored in a VAR-VECM framework. For this purpose we will proceed as follows: (i) testing for the integration order of the variables; (ii) cointegration analysis and (iii) performing Granger causality tests in a VAR-VECM framework. In the finance-growth nexus, empirical evidence suggests for a positive long run relationship between finance and economic growth, with causality running from financial development to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have not affected the causality direction in the finance and growth nexus, thus supporting the finance led growth hypothesis in the long run in the case of Albania. In the finance-growth-trade openness nexus, we found evidence for a positive long run relationship the variables, with causality direction depending on the proxy used for financial development. When the pre-crisis sample is considered, we find evidence for causality running from financial development and trade openness to economic growth. The global financial crisis seems to have affected somewhat the causality direction in the finance-growth-trade nexus, which has become sensible to the proxy used for financial development. On the short run, empirical evidence suggests for a clear unidirectional relationship between finance and growth, with causality mostly running from economic growth to financial development. When we consider the per-crisis sub sample results are mixed, depending on the proxy used for financial development. The same results are confirmed when trade openness is taken into account.

Late Quaternary geological evolution of the Montenegro and Northern Albania continental margins

The object of this work has been the analysis of natural processes controlling the geological evolution of the Montenegro and Northern Albania Continental Margin (MACM) during the Late Quaternary. These include the modern sediment dispersal system and oceanographic regime, the building and shaping of the shelf margin at the scale of 100 kyr and relative to the most recent transition between glacial and interglacial periods. The analysis of the new data shows that the MACM is a shelf-slope system formed by a suite of physiographic elements, including: an inner and an outer continental shelf, separated by two tectonically-controlled morphological highs; a lobated drowned mid-shelf paleodelta, formed during the last sea level fall and low stand; an upper continental slope, affected by gravity-driven instability and a system of extensional faults with surficial displacement, featuring an orientation coherent with the regional tectonics. The stratigraphic study of the MACM shows a clear correspondence between the Late Pleistocene/Holocene mud-wedge and the low reflectivity sectors of the inner shelf. Conversely, most of the outer shelf and part of the continental slope expose deposits from the last sea level low stand, featuring a general sediment starving condition or the presence of a thin postglacial sediments cover. The MACM shows uplift in correspondence of the Kotor and Bar ridges, and subsidence in the outer shelf and upper slope sectors. In fact, seaward of these tectonic ridges, the sparker seismic profile show the presence of four well-defined seismo-stratigraphic sequences, interpreted as forced regression deposits, formed during the last four main glacial phases. In this way, the MACM records the 100 kyr scale sea level fluctuations on its seismo-stratigraphic architecture over the last 350 kyr. Over such time range, through the identification of the paleoshoreline deposits, we estimated an average subsidence rate of about 1.2 mm/yr.

Il Presidente della Repubblica in Albania tra evoluzione della forma di Stato e formale adozione del modello Italiano

La ricerca analizza la forma di Stato e di Governo e si focalizza nel ruolo importante del Capo dello Stato in funzione alla separazione dei poteri e consolidamento della democrazia in una Repubblica Parlamentare. Questa ricerca comparativa analizza l’evoluzione della forma di governo in Italia e Albania. La ricerca analizza nei dettagli l’evoluzione della forma di Governo, focalizzandosi all’istituzione del Capo dello Stato in Albania dall’indipendenza (1912), evidenziando il ruolo dell’Italia in quest’evoluzione. In maniera comparativa si analizza l’evoluzione dell’istituzione del Capo dello Stato in Italia fin dalla sua unita e gli altri sviluppi i quali servirono come modello per l’Albania, evidenziano l’influenza a livello internazionale che ebbe l’Italia per l’indipendenza dell’Albania, che portò al consolidamento dei loro rapporti. Questa ricerca analizza la collaborazione di questi due Stati la quale culmino con la loro Unione Personale identificandosi nello stesso Capo di Stato. La ricerca inoltre evidenzia che come questa fase sia stata superata dalla II Guerra Mondiale e la Guerra Fredda che vide questi Stati a sviluppare diverse forme di Governo. Per di più la ricerca evidenzia la trasformazione politico-istituzionale e il processo di cambiamento dell’Albania dopo la caduta del muro di Berlino che segno la fine del sistema comunista, che vide l’Albania ad adottare il modello Italiano per il Capo dello Stato.

The impact of grants in the agriculture sector in Albania: a counterfactual approach

The objective of this study is to measure the impact of the national subsidy scheme on the olive and fruit sector in two regions of Albania, Shkodra and Fier. From the methodological point of view, we use a non- parametric approach based on the propensity score matching. This method overcomes problem of the missing data, by creating a counterfactual scenario. In the first step, the conditional probability to participate in the program was computed. Afterwards, different matching estimators were applied to establish whether the subsidies have affected sectors performance. One of the strengths of this study stays in the data. Cross-sectional primary data was gathered through about 250 interviews.. We have not found empirical evidence of significant effects of government aid program on production. Differences in production found between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries disappear after adjustment by the conditional probability of participating into the program. This suggests that subsidized farmers would have performed better than the subsidized households even in the absence of production grants, revealing program self-selection. On the other hand, the scheme has affected positively the farm structure increasing the area under cultivation, but yields has not increased for beneficiaries compared to non beneficiaries. These combined results shed light on the reason of the missed impact. It could be reasonable to believe that the new plantation, in particular in the case of olives, has not yet reached full production. Therefore, we have reasons to believe on positive impacts in the future. Concerning some qualitative results, the extension of area under cultivation is strongly conditioned by the small farm size. This together with a thin land market makes extremely difficult the expansion beyond farm boundaries.