Permutation-based stochastic ordering using pairwise comparisons

The topic of this work concerns nonparametric permutation-based methods aiming to find a ranking (stochastic ordering) of a given set of groups (populations), gathering together information from multiple variables under more than one experimental designs. The problem of ranking populations arises in several fields of science from the need of comparing G>2 given groups or treatments when the main goal is to find an order while taking into account several aspects. As it can be imagined, this problem is not only of theoretical interest but it also has a recognised relevance in several fields, such as industrial experiments or behavioural sciences, and this is reflected by the vast literature on the topic, although sometimes the problem is associated with different keywords such as: "stochastic ordering", "ranking", "construction of composite indices" etc., or even "ranking probabilities" outside of the strictly-speaking statistical literature. The properties of the proposed method are empirically evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study, where several aspects of interest are let to vary within a reasonable practical range. These aspects comprise: sample size, number of variables, number of groups, and distribution of noise/error. The flexibility of the approach lies mainly in the several available choices for the test-statistic and in the different types of experimental design that can be analysed. This render the method able to be tailored to the specific problem and the to nature of the data at hand. To perform the analyses an R package called SOUP (Stochastic Ordering Using Permutations) has been written and it is available on CRAN.

Componenti spaziali della rappresentazione cognitiva della grandezza del numero

The humans process the numbers in a similar way to animals. There are countless studies in which similar performance between animals and humans (adults and/or children) are reported. Three models have been developed to explain the cognitive mechanisms underlying the number processing. The triple-code model (Dehaene, 1992) posits an mental number line as preferred way to represent magnitude. The mental number line has three particular effects: the distance, the magnitude and the SNARC effects. The SNARC effect shows a spatial association between number and space representations. In other words, the small numbers are related to left space while large numbers are related to right space. Recently a vertical SNARC effect has been found (Ito & Hatta, 2004; Schwarz & Keus, 2004), reflecting a space-related bottom-to-up representation of numbers. The magnitude representations horizontally and vertically could influence the subject performance in explicit and implicit digit tasks. The goal of this research project aimed to investigate the spatial components of number representation using different experimental designs and tasks. The experiment 1 focused on horizontal and vertical number representations in a within- and between-subjects designs in a parity and magnitude comparative tasks, presenting positive or negative Arabic digits (1-9 without 5). The experiment 1A replied the SNARC and distance effects in both spatial arrangements. The experiment 1B showed an horizontal reversed SNARC effect in both tasks while a vertical reversed SNARC effect was found only in comparative task. In the experiment 1C two groups of subjects performed both tasks in two different instruction-responding hand assignments with positive numbers. The results did not show any significant differences between two assignments, even if the vertical number line seemed to be more flexible respect to horizontal one. On the whole the experiment 1 seemed to demonstrate a contextual (i.e. task set) influences of the nature of the SNARC effect. The experiment 2 focused on the effect of horizontal and vertical number representations on spatial biases in a paper-and-pencil bisecting tasks. In the experiment 2A the participants were requested to bisect physical and number (2 or 9) lines horizontally and vertically. The findings demonstrated that digit 9 strings tended to generate a more rightward bias comparing with digit 2 strings horizontally. However in vertical condition the digit 2 strings generated a more upperward bias respect to digit 9 strings, suggesting a top-to-bottom number line. In the experiment 2B the participants were asked to bisect lines flanked by numbers (i.e. 1 or 7) in four spatial arrangements: horizontal, vertical, right-diagonal and left-diagonal lines. Four number conditions were created according to congruent or incongruent number line representation: 1-1, 1-7, 7-1 and 7-7. The main results showed a more reliable rightward bias in horizontal congruent condition (1-7) respect to incongruent condition (7-1). Vertically the incongruent condition (1-7) determined a significant bias towards bottom side of line respect to congruent condition (7-1). The experiment 2 suggested a more rigid horizontal number line while in vertical condition the number representation could be more flexible. In the experiment 3 we adopted the materials of experiment 2B in order to find a number line effect on temporal (motor) performance. The participants were presented horizontal, vertical, rightdiagonal and left-diagonal lines flanked by the same digits (i.e. 1-1 or 7-7) or by different digits (i.e. 1-7 or 7-1). The digits were spatially congruent or incongruent with their respective hypothesized mental representations. Participants were instructed to touch the lines either close to the large digit, or close to the small digit, or to bisected the lines. Number processing influenced movement execution more than movement planning. Number congruency influenced spatial biases mostly along the horizontal but also along the vertical dimension. These results support a two-dimensional magnitude representation. Finally, the experiment 4 addressed the visuo-spatial manipulation of number representations for accessing and retrieval arithmetic facts. The participants were requested to perform a number-matching and an addition verification tasks. The findings showed an interference effect between sum-nodes and neutral-nodes only with an horizontal presentation of digit-cues, in number-matching tasks. In the addition verification task, the performance was similar for horizontal and vertical presentations of arithmetic problems. In conclusion the data seemed to show an automatic activation of horizontal number line also used to retrieval arithmetic facts. The horizontal number line seemed to be more rigid and the preferred way to order number from left-to-right. A possible explanation could be the left-to-right direction for reading and writing. The vertical number line seemed to be more flexible and more dependent from the tasks, reflecting perhaps several example in the environment representing numbers either from bottom-to-top or from top-to-bottom. However the bottom-to-top number line seemed to be activated by explicit task demands.

A Web GIS Decision Support System For Coastal Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk associated with storm surge events and long-term sea level rise associated with climate change. This study contributes to the spatially evaluation and mapping of social-economic-environmental vulnerability and risk at sub-national scale through the development of appropriate tools and methods successfully embedded in a Web-GIS Decision Support System. A new set of raster-based models were studied and developed in order to be easily implemented in the Web-GIS framework with the purpose to quickly assess and map flood hazards characteristics, damage and vulnerability in a Multi-criteria approach. The Web-GIS DSS is developed recurring to open source software and programming language and its main peculiarity is to be available and usable by coastal managers and land use planners without requiring high scientific background in hydraulic engineering. The effectiveness of the system in the coastal risk assessment is evaluated trough its application to a real case study.

Design of experiment in drug development: optimal allocations in multi-arm clinical trials and design space for multi-step processes

In this thesis, we deal with the design of experiments in the drug development process, focusing on the design of clinical trials for treatment comparisons (Part I) and the design of preclinical laboratory experiments for proteins development and manufacturing (Part II). In Part I we propose a multi-purpose design methodology for sequential clinical trials. We derived optimal allocations of patients to treatments for testing the efficacy of several experimental groups by also taking into account ethical considerations. We first consider exponential responses for survival trials and we then present a unified framework for heteroscedastic experimental groups that encompasses the general ANOVA set-up. The very good performance of the suggested optimal allocations, in terms of both inferential and ethical characteristics, are illustrated analytically and through several numerical examples, also performing comparisons with other designs proposed in the literature. Part II concerns the planning of experiments for processes composed of multiple steps in the context of preclinical drug development and manufacturing. Following the Quality by Design paradigm, the objective of the multi-step design strategy is the definition of the manufacturing design space of the whole process and, as we consider the interactions among the subsequent steps, our proposal ensures the quality and the safety of the final product, by enabling more flexibility and process robustness in the manufacturing.

Planning and flexible operation of storage systems in power grids: from transmission to distribution networks

The first part of the thesis has been devoted to the transmission planning with high penetration of renewable energy sources. Both stationary and transportable battery energy storage (BES, BEST) systems have been considered in the planning model, so to obtain the optimal set of BES, BEST and transmission lines that minimizes the total cost in a power network. First, a coordinated expansion planning model with fixed transportation cost for BEST devices has been presented; then, the model has been extended to a planning formulation with a distance-dependent transportation cost for the BEST units, and its tractability has been proved through a case study based on a 190-bus test system. The second part of this thesis is then devoted to the analysis of planning and management of renewable energy communities (RECs). Initially, the planning of photovoltaic and BES systems in a REC with an incentive-based remuneration scheme according to the Italian regulatory framework has been analysed, and two planning models, according to a single-stage, or a multi-stage approach, have been proposed in order to provide the optimal set of BES and PV systems allowing to achieve the minimum energy procurement cost in a given REC. Further, the second part of this thesis is devoted to the study of the day-ahead scheduling of resources in renewable energy communities, by considering two types of REC. The first one, which we will refer to as “cooperative community”, allows direct energy transactions between members of the REC; the second type of REC considered, which we shall refer to as “incentive-based”, does not allow direct transactions between members but includes economic revenues for the community shared energy, according to the Italian regulation framework. Moreover, dispatchable renewable energy generation has been considered by including producers equipped with biogas power plants in the community.

The green finance apparatus. How ideology and planning steer sustainable capital flows

By investigating the inner working of leading financial institutions, and their dense interconnections, this thesis explores the evolution of traditional financial instruments like bonds to tackle sustainability issues. Building on fieldwork among green financiers, the thesis is based upon participant observation of working groups appointed to define standards for sustainable bonds. Engaging critical theory, one claim is that investors are increasingly recruited or interpellated by an emerging global green ideological apparatus, aimed at ensuring the reproduction of existing social relations. Taking stock of the proliferation of both public and private actors in the definition of green standards and practices, the thesis proposes that this green ideology is becoming hegemonic. Focusing on the case of green bond pricing, it suggests that environmental and climate labels and other financial green signifiers for financial products take on brand-like qualities. Crystallizing imaginaries, meanings, and forms of personhood, they play a fundamental role in what is defined as a dual process of valuation-cum-subjectivation. Identifying themselves as “green”, financiers valuate differently green and brown assets allowing a ‘green’ financial value to slowly come to matter. Yet, alongside their ideological role, green labels have come to be almost exclusively standardized with reference to specific Climate Scenarios (e.g. Net Zero). These scenarios coordinate the optimal path towards achieving a carbon neutral world and represent the quintessential example of socioeconomic planning, crucially undermining neoliberal ideas of ‘the market’ as the ultimate calculative device.