A partial dependence factorial analysis to deal with selection bias in observational studis

This thesis presents a creative and practical approach to dealing with the problem of selection bias. Selection bias may be the most important vexing problem in program evaluation or in any line of research that attempts to assert causality. Some of the greatest minds in economics and statistics have scrutinized the problem of selection bias, with the resulting approaches – Rubin’s Potential Outcome Approach(Rosenbaum and Rubin,1983; Rubin, 1991,2001,2004) or Heckman’s Selection model (Heckman, 1979) – being widely accepted and used as the best fixes. These solutions to the bias that arises in particular from self selection are imperfect, and many researchers, when feasible, reserve their strongest causal inference for data from experimental rather than observational studies. The innovative aspect of this thesis is to propose a data transformation that allows measuring and testing in an automatic and multivariate way the presence of selection bias. The approach involves the construction of a multi-dimensional conditional space of the X matrix in which the bias associated with the treatment assignment has been eliminated. Specifically, we propose the use of a partial dependence analysis of the X-space as a tool for investigating the dependence relationship between a set of observable pre-treatment categorical covariates X and a treatment indicator variable T, in order to obtain a measure of bias according to their dependence structure. The measure of selection bias is then expressed in terms of inertia due to the dependence between X and T that has been eliminated. Given the measure of selection bias, we propose a multivariate test of imbalance in order to check if the detected bias is significant, by using the asymptotical distribution of inertia due to T (Estadella et al. 2005) , and by preserving the multivariate nature of data. Further, we propose the use of a clustering procedure as a tool to find groups of comparable units on which estimate local causal effects, and the use of the multivariate test of imbalance as a stopping rule in choosing the best cluster solution set. The method is non parametric, it does not call for modeling the data, based on some underlying theory or assumption about the selection process, but instead it calls for using the existing variability within the data and letting the data to speak. The idea of proposing this multivariate approach to measure selection bias and test balance comes from the consideration that in applied research all aspects of multivariate balance, not represented in the univariate variable- by-variable summaries, are ignored. The first part contains an introduction to evaluation methods as part of public and private decision process and a review of the literature of evaluation methods. The attention is focused on Rubin Potential Outcome Approach, matching methods, and briefly on Heckman’s Selection Model. The second part focuses on some resulting limitations of conventional methods, with particular attention to the problem of how testing in the correct way balancing. The third part contains the original contribution proposed , a simulation study that allows to check the performance of the method for a given dependence setting and an application to a real data set. Finally, we discuss, conclude and explain our future perspectives.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

MetaVaccinology: a new vaccine discovery tool

In the last decade, the reverse vaccinology approach shifted the paradigm of vaccine discovery from conventional culture-based methods to high-throughput genome-based approaches for the development of recombinant protein-based vaccines against pathogenic bacteria. Besides reaching its main goal of identifying new vaccine candidates, this new procedure produced also a huge amount of molecular knowledge related to them. In the present work, we explored this knowledge in a species-independent way and we performed a systematic in silico molecular analysis of more than 100 protective antigens, looking at their sequence similarity, domain composition and protein architecture in order to identify possible common molecular features. This meta-analysis revealed that, beside a low sequence similarity, most of the known bacterial protective antigens shared structural/functional Pfam domains as well as specific protein architectures. Based on this, we formulated the hypothesis that the occurrence of these molecular signatures can be predictive of possible protective properties of other proteins in different bacterial species. We tested this hypothesis in Streptococcus agalactiae and identified four new protective antigens. Moreover, in order to provide a second proof of the concept for our approach, we used Staphyloccus aureus as a second pathogen and identified five new protective antigens. This new knowledge-driven selection process, named MetaVaccinology, represents the first in silico vaccine discovery tool based on conserved and predictive molecular and structural features of bacterial protective antigens and not dependent upon the prediction of their sub-cellular localization.

La dialettica centro-periferia nella formazione e selezione della classe dirigente comunista. Il caso della Toscana (1945-1991)

Il problema storico che è al centro di questo progetto di ricerca può essere così riassunto: in che modo viene selezionata la classe dirigente comunista nell’Italia repubblicana? Ovvero, detto in altri termini, in che misura le nomine dipendevano dal centro, per cooptazione, secondo la tradizione del modello di partito centralizzato, e quanto, invece, costituivano una ratifica alta di processi di selezione che si sviluppavano in periferia? Quanto contava, insomma, l’aver avuto lo scettro del comando nei territori di provenienza per ricoprire incarichi direttivi nel partito a livello nazionale? La nostra ricerca vuole quindi verificare la validità di alcuni paradigmi interpretativi, scaturiti da un’analisi complessiva della politica comunista, prendendo in esame un caso di studio locale, quello di una regione «rossa» per antonomasia come la Toscana. Tenendo conto, contestualmente, della realtà nazionale e di quella locale, cercheremo di analizzare, le ricadute che processi di portata nazionale ebbero sulla realtà locale, e in particolare, sulle modalità che regolavano la selezione della classe dirigente, dando alla ricerca un taglio prosopografico.

The Perception of American Adolescent Culture Through the Dubbing and Fansubbing of a Selection of US Teen Series from 1990 to 2013

The present dissertation aims at analyzing the construction of American adolescent culture through teen-targeted television series and the shift in perception that occurs as a consequence of the translation process. In light of the recent changes in television production and consumption modes, largely caused by new technologies, this project explores the evolution of Italian audiences, focusing on fansubbing (freely distributed amateur subtitles made by fans for fan consumption) and social viewing (the re-aggregation of television consumption based on social networks and dedicated platforms, rather than on physical presence). These phenomena are symptoms of a sort of ‘viewership 2.0’ and of a new type of active viewing, which calls for a revision of traditional AVT strategies. Using a framework that combines television studies, new media studies, and fandom studies with an approach to AVT based on Descriptive Translation Studies (Toury 1995), this dissertation analyzes the non-Anglophone audience’s growing need to participation in the global dialogue and appropriation process based on US scheduling and informed by the new paradigm of convergence culture, transmedia storytelling, and affective economics (Jenkins 2006 and 2007), as well as the constraints intrinsic to multimodal translation and the different types of linguistic and cultural adaptation performed through dubbing (which tends to be more domesticating; Venuti 1995) and fansubbing (typically more foreignizing). The study analyzes a selection of episodes from six of the most popular teen television series between 1990 and 2013, which has been divided into three ages based on the different modes of television consumption: top-down, pre-Internet consumption (Beverly Hills, 90210, 1990 – 2000), emergence of audience participation (Buffy the Vampire Slayer, 1997 – 2003; Dawson’s Creek, 1998 – 2003), age of convergence and Viewership 2.0 (Gossip Girl, 2007 – 2012; Glee, 2009 – present; The Big Bang Theory, 2007 - present).

Aerobic biodegradation of chlorinated solvents and plastics in batch and continuous-flow bioreactors: process development, and identification of suitable chemical pre-Treatments

The purpose of the first part of the research activity was to develop an aerobic cometabolic process in packed bed reactors (PBR) to treat real groundwater contaminated by trichloroethylene (TCE) and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane (TeCA). In an initial screening conducted in batch bioreactors, different groundwater samples from 5 wells of the contaminated site were fed with 5 growth substrates. The work led to the selection of butane as the best growth substrate, and to the development and characterization from the site’s indigenous biomass of a suspended-cell consortium capable to degrade TCE with a 90 % mineralization of the organic chlorine. A kinetic study conducted in batch and continuous flow PBRs and led to the identification of the best carrier. A kinetic study of butane and TCE biodegradation indicated that the attached-cell consortium is characterized by a lower TCE specific degredation rates and by a lower level of mutual butane-TCE inhibition. A 31 L bioreactor was designed and set up for upscaling the experiment. The second part of the research focused on the biodegradation of 4 polymers, with and with-out chemical pre-treatments: linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), polyethylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Initially, the 4 polymers were subjected to different chemical pre-treatments: ozonation and UV/ozonation, in gaseous and aqueous phase. It was found that, for LLDPE and PP, the coupling UV and ozone in gas phase is the most effective way to oxidize the polymers and to generate carbonyl groups on the polymer surface. In further tests, the effect of chemical pretreatment on polyner biodegrability was studied. Gas-phase ozonated and virgin polymers were incubated aerobically with: (a) a pure strain, (b) a mixed culture of bacteria; and (c) a fungal culture, together with saccharose as a co-substrate.