Three dimensional seismic imaging and earthquake locations in a complex, segmented fault region in Southern Apennines (Italy)

The southern Apennines of Italy have been experienced several destructive earthquakes both in historic and recent times. The present day seismicity, characterized by small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes, was used like a probe to obatin a deeper knowledge of the fault structures where the largest earthquakes occurred in the past. With the aim to infer a three dimensional seismic image both the problem of data quality and the selection of a reliable and robust tomographic inversion strategy have been faced. The data quality has been obtained to develop optimized procedures for the measurements of P- and S-wave arrival times, through the use of polarization filtering and to the application of a refined re-picking technique based on cross-correlation of waveforms. A technique of iterative tomographic inversion, linearized, damped combined with a strategy of multiscale inversion type has been adopted. The retrieved P-wave velocity model indicates the presence of a strong velocity variation along a direction orthogonal to the Apenninic chain. This variation defines two domains which are characterized by a relatively low and high velocity values. From the comparison between the inferred P-wave velocity model with a portion of a structural section available in literature, the high velocity body was correlated with the Apulia carbonatic platforms whereas the low velocity bodies was associated to the basinal deposits. The deduced Vp/Vs ratio shows that the ratio is lower than 1.8 in the shallower part of the model, while for depths ranging between 5 km and 12 km the ratio increases up to 2.1 in correspondence to the area of higher seismicity. This confirms that areas characterized by higher values are more prone to generate earthquakes as a response to the presence of fluids and higher pore-pressures.

On the effect of confounding in linear regression models: an approach based on the theory of quadratic forms

The main topic of this thesis is confounding in linear regression models. It arises when a relationship between an observed process, the covariate, and an outcome process, the response, is influenced by an unmeasured process, the confounder, associated with both. Consequently, the estimators for the regression coefficients of the measured covariates might be severely biased, less efficient and characterized by misleading interpretations. Confounding is an issue when the primary target of the work is the estimation of the regression parameters. The central point of the dissertation is the evaluation of the sampling properties of parameter estimators. This work aims to extend the spatial confounding framework to general structured settings and to understand the behaviour of confounding as a function of the data generating process structure parameters in several scenarios focusing on the joint covariate-confounder structure. In line with the spatial statistics literature, our purpose is to quantify the sampling properties of the regression coefficient estimators and, in turn, to identify the most prominent quantities depending on the generative mechanism impacting confounding. Once the sampling properties of the estimator conditionally on the covariate process are derived as ratios of dependent quadratic forms in Gaussian random variables, we provide an analytic expression of the marginal sampling properties of the estimator using Carlson’s R function. Additionally, we propose a representative quantity for the magnitude of confounding as a proxy of the bias, its first-order Laplace approximation. To conclude, we work under several frameworks considering spatial and temporal data with specific assumptions regarding the covariance and cross-covariance functions used to generate the processes involved. This study allows us to claim that the variability of the confounder-covariate interaction and of the covariate plays the most relevant role in determining the principal marker of the magnitude of confounding.

Seemingly unrelated linear regression for contaminated data based on Gaussian mixtures

In this thesis, new classes of models for multivariate linear regression defined by finite mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regression models and seemingly unrelated contaminated normal cluster-weighted models are illustrated. The main difference between such families is that the covariates are treated as fixed in the former class of models and as random in the latter. Thus, in cluster-weighted models the assignment of the data points to the unknown groups of observations depends also by the covariates. These classes provide an extension to mixture-based regression analysis for modelling multivariate and correlated responses in the presence of mild outliers that allows to specify a different vector of regressors for the prediction of each response. Expectation-conditional maximisation algorithms for the calculation of the maximum likelihood estimate of the model parameters have been derived. As the number of free parameters incresases quadratically with the number of responses and the covariates, analyses based on the proposed models can become unfeasible in practical applications. These problems have been overcome by introducing constraints on the elements of the covariance matrices according to an approach based on the eigen-decomposition of the covariance matrices. The performances of the new models have been studied by simulations and using real datasets in comparison with other models. In order to gain additional flexibility, mixtures of seemingly unrelated contaminated normal regressions models have also been specified so as to allow mixing proportions to be expressed as functions of concomitant covariates. An illustration of the new models with concomitant variables and a study on housing tension in the municipalities of the Emilia-Romagna region based on different types of multivariate linear regression models have been performed.