Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Constraint handling rules. Compositional semantics and program transformation

This thesis intends to investigate two aspects of Constraint Handling Rules (CHR). It proposes a compositional semantics and a technique for program transformation. CHR is a concurrent committed-choice constraint logic programming language consisting of guarded rules, which transform multi-sets of atomic formulas (constraints) into simpler ones until exhaustion [Frü06] and it belongs to the declarative languages family. It was initially designed for writing constraint solvers but it has recently also proven to be a general purpose language, being as it is Turing equivalent [SSD05a]. Compositionality is the first CHR aspect to be considered. A trace based compositional semantics for CHR was previously defined in [DGM05]. The reference operational semantics for such a compositional model was the original operational semantics for CHR which, due to the propagation rule, admits trivial non-termination. In this thesis we extend the work of [DGM05] by introducing a more refined trace based compositional semantics which also includes the history. The use of history is a well-known technique in CHR which permits us to trace the application of propagation rules and consequently it permits trivial non-termination avoidance [Abd97, DSGdlBH04]. Naturally, the reference operational semantics, of our new compositional one, uses history to avoid trivial non-termination too. Program transformation is the second CHR aspect to be considered, with particular regard to the unfolding technique. Said technique is an appealing approach which allows us to optimize a given program and in more detail to improve run-time efficiency or spaceconsumption. Essentially it consists of a sequence of syntactic program manipulations which preserve a kind of semantic equivalence called qualified answer [Frü98], between the original program and the transformed ones. The unfolding technique is one of the basic operations which is used by most program transformation systems. It consists in the replacement of a procedure-call by its definition. In CHR every conjunction of constraints can be considered as a procedure-call, every CHR rule can be considered as a procedure and the body of said rule represents the definition of the call. While there is a large body of literature on transformation and unfolding of sequential programs, very few papers have addressed this issue for concurrent languages. We define an unfolding rule, show its correctness and discuss some conditions in which it can be used to delete an unfolded rule while preserving the meaning of the original program. Finally, confluence and termination maintenance between the original and transformed programs are shown. This thesis is organized in the following manner. Chapter 1 gives some general notion about CHR. Section 1.1 outlines the history of programming languages with particular attention to CHR and related languages. Then, Section 1.2 introduces CHR using examples. Section 1.3 gives some preliminaries which will be used during the thesis. Subsequentely, Section 1.4 introduces the syntax and the operational and declarative semantics for the first CHR language proposed. Finally, the methodologies to solve the problem of trivial non-termination related to propagation rules are discussed in Section 1.5. Chapter 2 introduces a compositional semantics for CHR where the propagation rules are considered. In particular, Section 2.1 contains the definition of the semantics. Hence, Section 2.2 presents the compositionality results. Afterwards Section 2.3 expounds upon the correctness results. Chapter 3 presents a particular program transformation known as unfolding. This transformation needs a particular syntax called annotated which is introduced in Section 3.1 and its related modified operational semantics !0t is presented in Section 3.2. Subsequently, Section 3.3 defines the unfolding rule and prove its correctness. Then, in Section 3.4 the problems related to the replacement of a rule by its unfolded version are discussed and this in turn gives a correctness condition which holds for a specific class of rules. Section 3.5 proves that confluence and termination are preserved by the program modifications introduced. Finally, Chapter 4 concludes by discussing related works and directions for future work.

Ex-post Liability Rules in Modern Patent Law

This doctoral thesis examines the use of liability rules to protect patent entitlements, focusing on a specific type of rule named ex-post since it is applied and designed ex-post by a court or an agency. The research starts from the premise that patents are defined by the legal and economic scholarship as exclusive rights but nevertheless, under certain circumstances there are economic as well as other compelling reasons to transform the exclusiveness of patent rights into a right to receive compensation.

Analysis of cerebral and autonomic response to respiratory events in patients with Sleep Apnea Syndrome

The arousal scoring in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (OSAS) is important to clarify the impact of the disease on sleep but the currently applied American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) definition may underestimate the subtle alterations of sleep. The aims of the present study were to evaluate the impact of respiratory events on cortical and autonomic arousal response and to quantify the additional value of cyclic alternating pattern (CAP) and pulse wave amplitude (PWA) for a more accurate detection of respiratory events and sleep alterations in OSAS patients. A retrospective revision of 19 polysomnographic recordings of OSAS patients was carried out. Analysis was focused on quantification of apneas (AP), hypopneas (H) and flow limitation (FL) events, and on investigation of cerebral and autonomic activity. Only 41.1% of FL events analyzed in non rapid eye movement met the AASM rules for the definition of respiratory event-related arousal (RERA), while 75.5% of FL events ended with a CAP A phase. The dual response (EEG-PWA) was the most frequent response for all subtypes of respiratory event with a progressive reduction from AP to H and FL. 87.7% of respiratory events with EEG activation showed also a PWA drop and 53,4% of the respiratory events without EEG activation presented a PWA drop. The relationship between the respiratory events and the arousal response is more complex than that suggested by the international classification. In the estimation of the response to respiratory events, the CAP scoring and PWA analysis can offer more extensive information compared to the AASM rules. Our data confirm also that the application of PWA scoring improves the detection of respiratory events and could reduce the underestimation of OSAS severity compared to AASM arousal.