Multiple testing in spatial epidemiology: a Bayesian approach

In this work we aim to propose a new approach for preliminary epidemiological studies on Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) collected in many spatial regions. A preliminary study on SMRs aims to formulate hypotheses to be investigated via individual epidemiological studies that avoid bias carried on by aggregated analyses. Starting from collecting disease counts and calculating expected disease counts by means of reference population disease rates, in each area an SMR is derived as the MLE under the Poisson assumption on each observation. Such estimators have high standard errors in small areas, i.e. where the expected count is low either because of the low population underlying the area or the rarity of the disease under study. Disease mapping models and other techniques for screening disease rates among the map aiming to detect anomalies and possible high-risk areas have been proposed in literature according to the classic and the Bayesian paradigm. Our proposal is approaching this issue by a decision-oriented method, which focus on multiple testing control, without however leaving the preliminary study perspective that an analysis on SMR indicators is asked to. We implement the control of the FDR, a quantity largely used to address multiple comparisons problems in the eld of microarray data analysis but which is not usually employed in disease mapping. Controlling the FDR means providing an estimate of the FDR for a set of rejected null hypotheses. The small areas issue arises diculties in applying traditional methods for FDR estimation, that are usually based only on the p-values knowledge (Benjamini and Hochberg, 1995; Storey, 2003). Tests evaluated by a traditional p-value provide weak power in small areas, where the expected number of disease cases is small. Moreover tests cannot be assumed as independent when spatial correlation between SMRs is expected, neither they are identical distributed when population underlying the map is heterogeneous. The Bayesian paradigm oers a way to overcome the inappropriateness of p-values based methods. Another peculiarity of the present work is to propose a hierarchical full Bayesian model for FDR estimation in testing many null hypothesis of absence of risk.We will use concepts of Bayesian models for disease mapping, referring in particular to the Besag York and Mollié model (1991) often used in practice for its exible prior assumption on the risks distribution across regions. The borrowing of strength between prior and likelihood typical of a hierarchical Bayesian model takes the advantage of evaluating a singular test (i.e. a test in a singular area) by means of all observations in the map under study, rather than just by means of the singular observation. This allows to improve the power test in small areas and addressing more appropriately the spatial correlation issue that suggests that relative risks are closer in spatially contiguous regions. The proposed model aims to estimate the FDR by means of the MCMC estimated posterior probabilities b i's of the null hypothesis (absence of risk) for each area. An estimate of the expected FDR conditional on data (\FDR) can be calculated in any set of b i's relative to areas declared at high-risk (where thenull hypothesis is rejected) by averaging the b i's themselves. The\FDR can be used to provide an easy decision rule for selecting high-risk areas, i.e. selecting as many as possible areas such that the\FDR is non-lower than a prexed value; we call them\FDR based decision (or selection) rules. The sensitivity and specicity of such rule depend on the accuracy of the FDR estimate, the over-estimation of FDR causing a loss of power and the under-estimation of FDR producing a loss of specicity. Moreover, our model has the interesting feature of still being able to provide an estimate of relative risk values as in the Besag York and Mollié model (1991). A simulation study to evaluate the model performance in FDR estimation accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the decision rule, and goodness of estimation of relative risks, was set up. We chose a real map from which we generated several spatial scenarios whose counts of disease vary according to the spatial correlation degree, the size areas, the number of areas where the null hypothesis is true and the risk level in the latter areas. In summarizing simulation results we will always consider the FDR estimation in sets constituted by all b i's selected lower than a threshold t. We will show graphs of the\FDR and the true FDR (known by simulation) plotted against a threshold t to assess the FDR estimation. Varying the threshold we can learn which FDR values can be accurately estimated by the practitioner willing to apply the model (by the closeness between\FDR and true FDR). By plotting the calculated sensitivity and specicity (both known by simulation) vs the\FDR we can check the sensitivity and specicity of the corresponding\FDR based decision rules. For investigating the over-smoothing level of relative risk estimates we will compare box-plots of such estimates in high-risk areas (known by simulation), obtained by both our model and the classic Besag York Mollié model. All the summary tools are worked out for all simulated scenarios (in total 54 scenarios). Results show that FDR is well estimated (in the worst case we get an overestimation, hence a conservative FDR control) in small areas, low risk levels and spatially correlated risks scenarios, that are our primary aims. In such scenarios we have good estimates of the FDR for all values less or equal than 0.10. The sensitivity of\FDR based decision rules is generally low but specicity is high. In such scenario the use of\FDR = 0:05 or\FDR = 0:10 based selection rule can be suggested. In cases where the number of true alternative hypotheses (number of true high-risk areas) is small, also FDR = 0:15 values are well estimated, and \FDR = 0:15 based decision rules gains power maintaining an high specicity. On the other hand, in non-small areas and non-small risk level scenarios the FDR is under-estimated unless for very small values of it (much lower than 0.05); this resulting in a loss of specicity of a\FDR = 0:05 based decision rule. In such scenario\FDR = 0:05 or, even worse,\FDR = 0:1 based decision rules cannot be suggested because the true FDR is actually much higher. As regards the relative risk estimation, our model achieves almost the same results of the classic Besag York Molliè model. For this reason, our model is interesting for its ability to perform both the estimation of relative risk values and the FDR control, except for non-small areas and large risk level scenarios. A case of study is nally presented to show how the method can be used in epidemiology.

Physical and mineralogical changes of Hungarian monumental stones exposed to different conditions: stone-testing in-situ and under laboratory conditions

The Székesfehérvár Ruin Garden is a unique assemblage of monuments belonging to the cultural heritage of Hungary due to its important role in the Middle Ages as the coronation and burial church of the Kings of the Hungarian Christian Kingdom. It has been nominated for “National Monument” and as a consequence, its protection in the present and future is required. Moreover, it was reconstructed and expanded several times throughout Hungarian history. By a quick overview of the current state of the monument, the presence of several lithotypes can be found among the remained building and decorative stones. Therefore, the research related to the materials is crucial not only for the conservation of that specific monument but also for other historic structures in Central Europe. The current research is divided in three main parts: i) description of lithologies and their provenance, ii) physical properties testing of historic material and iii) durability tests of analogous stones obtained from active quarries. The survey of the National Monument of Székesfehérvár, focuses on the historical importance and the architecture of the monument, the different construction periods, the identification of the different building stones and their distribution in the remaining parts of the monument and it also included provenance analyses. The second one was the in situ and laboratory testing of physical properties of historic material. As a final phase samples were taken from local quarries with similar physical and mineralogical characteristics to the ones used in the monument. The three studied lithologies are: fine oolitic limestone, a coarse oolitic limestone and a red compact limestone. These stones were used for rock mechanical and durability tests under laboratory conditions. The following techniques were used: a) in-situ: Schmidt Hammer Values, moisture content measurements, DRMS, mapping (construction ages, lithotypes, weathering forms) b) laboratory: petrographic analysis, XRD, determination of real density by means of helium pycnometer and bulk density by means of mercury pycnometer, pore size distribution by mercury intrusion porosimetry and by nitrogen adsorption, water absorption, determination of open porosity, DRMS, frost resistance, ultrasonic pulse velocity test, uniaxial compressive strength test and dynamic modulus of elasticity. The results show that initial uniaxial compressive strength is not necessarily a clear indicator of the stone durability. Bedding and other lithological heterogeneities can influence the strength and durability of individual specimens. In addition, long-term behaviour is influenced by exposure conditions, fabric and, especially, the pore size distribution of each sample. Therefore, a statistic evaluation of the results is highly recommended and they should be evaluated in combination with other investigations on internal structure and micro-scale heterogeneities of the material, such as petrographic observation, ultrasound pulse velocity and porosimetry. Laboratory tests used to estimate the durability of natural stone may give a good guidance to its short-term performance but they should not be taken as an ultimate indication of the long-term behaviour of the stone. The interdisciplinary study of the results confirms that stones in the monument show deterioration in terms of mineralogy, fabric and physical properties in comparison with quarried stones. Moreover stone-testing proves compatibility between quarried and historical stones. Good correlation is observed between the non-destructive-techniques and laboratory tests results which allow us to minimize sampling and assessing the condition of the materials. Concluding, this research can contribute to the diagnostic knowledge for further studies that are needed in order to evaluate the effect of recent and future protective measures.

A Design Methodology for Computer Security Testing

The field of "computer security" is often considered something in between Art and Science. This is partly due to the lack of widely agreed and standardized methodologies to evaluate the degree of the security of a system. This dissertation intends to contribute to this area by investigating the most common security testing strategies applied nowadays and by proposing an enhanced methodology that may be effectively applied to different threat scenarios with the same degree of effectiveness. Security testing methodologies are the first step towards standardized security evaluation processes and understanding of how the security threats evolve over time. This dissertation analyzes some of the most used identifying differences and commonalities, useful to compare them and assess their quality. The dissertation then proposes a new enhanced methodology built by keeping the best of every analyzed methodology. The designed methodology is tested over different systems with very effective results, which is the main evidence that it could really be applied in practical cases. Most of the dissertation discusses and proves how the presented testing methodology could be applied to such different systems and even to evade security measures by inverting goals and scopes. Real cases are often hard to find in methodology' documents, in contrary this dissertation wants to show real and practical cases offering technical details about how to apply it. Electronic voting systems are the first field test considered, and Pvote and Scantegrity are the two tested electronic voting systems. The usability and effectiveness of the designed methodology for electronic voting systems is proved thanks to this field cases analysis. Furthermore reputation and anti virus engines have also be analyzed with similar results. The dissertation concludes by presenting some general guidelines to build a coordination-based approach of electronic voting systems to improve the security without decreasing the system modularity.

Predictability in Social Science, The statistical mechanics approach.

The subject of this work concerns the study of the immigration phenomenon, with emphasis on the aspects related to the integration of an immigrant population in a hosting one. Aim of this work is to show the forecasting ability of a recent finding where the behavior of integration quantifiers was analyzed and investigated with a mathematical model of statistical physics origins (a generalization of the monomer dimer model). After providing a detailed literature review of the model, we show that not only such a model is able to identify the social mechanism that drives a particular integration process, but it also provides correct forecast. The research reported here proves that the proposed model of integration and its forecast framework are simple and effective tools to reduce uncertainties about how integration phenomena emerge and how they are likely to develop in response to increased migration levels in the future.

Data-driven and data-oriented methods for materials science and technologies

The discovery of new materials and their functions has always been a fundamental component of technological progress. Nowadays, the quest for new materials is stronger than ever: sustainability, medicine, robotics and electronics are all key assets which depend on the ability to create specifically tailored materials. However, designing materials with desired properties is a difficult task, and the complexity of the discipline makes it difficult to identify general criteria. While scientists developed a set of best practices (often based on experience and expertise), this is still a trial-and-error process. This becomes even more complex when dealing with advanced functional materials. Their properties depend on structural and morphological features, which in turn depend on fabrication procedures and environment, and subtle alterations leads to dramatically different results. Because of this, materials modeling and design is one of the most prolific research fields. Many techniques and instruments are continuously developed to enable new possibilities, both in the experimental and computational realms. Scientists strive to enforce cutting-edge technologies in order to make progress. However, the field is strongly affected by unorganized file management, proliferation of custom data formats and storage procedures, both in experimental and computational research. Results are difficult to find, interpret and re-use, and a huge amount of time is spent interpreting and re-organizing data. This also strongly limit the application of data-driven and machine learning techniques. This work introduces possible solutions to the problems described above. Specifically, it talks about developing features for specific classes of advanced materials and use them to train machine learning models and accelerate computational predictions for molecular compounds; developing method for organizing non homogeneous materials data; automate the process of using devices simulations to train machine learning models; dealing with scattered experimental data and use them to discover new patterns.

Supporting requirement elicitation and ontology testing in knowledge graph engineering

Knowledge graphs and ontologies are closely related concepts in the field of knowledge representation. In recent years, knowledge graphs have gained increasing popularity and are serving as essential components in many knowledge engineering projects that view them as crucial to their success. The conceptual foundation of the knowledge graph is provided by ontologies. Ontology modeling is an iterative engineering process that consists of steps such as the elicitation and formalization of requirements, the development, testing, refactoring, and release of the ontology. The testing of the ontology is a crucial and occasionally overlooked step of the process due to the lack of integrated tools to support it. As a result of this gap in the state-of-the-art, the testing of the ontology is completed manually, which requires a considerable amount of time and effort from the ontology engineers. The lack of tool support is noticed in the requirement elicitation process as well. In this aspect, the rise in the adoption and accessibility of knowledge graphs allows for the development and use of automated tools to assist with the elicitation of requirements from such a complementary source of data. Therefore, this doctoral research is focused on developing methods and tools that support the requirement elicitation and testing steps of an ontology engineering process. To support the testing of the ontology, we have developed XDTesting, a web application that is integrated with the GitHub platform that serves as an ontology testing manager. Concurrently, to support the elicitation and documentation of competency questions, we have defined and implemented RevOnt, a method to extract competency questions from knowledge graphs. Both methods are evaluated through their implementation and the results are promising.

Response times in computerized adaptive testing: a method for cheating detection

In the field of educational and psychological measurement, the shift from paper-based to computerized tests has become a prominent trend in recent years. Computerized tests allow for more complex and personalized test administration procedures, like Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). CAT, following the Item Response Theory (IRT) models, dynamically generates tests based on test-taker responses, driven by complex statistical algorithms. Even if CAT structures are complex, they are flexible and convenient, but concerns about test security should be addressed. Frequent item administration can lead to item exposure and cheating, necessitating preventive and diagnostic measures. In this thesis a method called "CHeater identification using Interim Person fit Statistic" (CHIPS) is developed, designed to identify and limit cheaters in real-time during test administration. CHIPS utilizes response times (RTs) to calculate an Interim Person fit Statistic (IPS), allowing for on-the-fly intervention using a more secret item bank. Also, a slight modification is proposed to overcome situations with constant speed, called Modified-CHIPS (M-CHIPS). A simulation study assesses CHIPS, highlighting its effectiveness in identifying and controlling cheaters. However, it reveals limitations when cheaters possess all correct answers. The M-CHIPS overcame this limitation. Furthermore, the method has shown not to be influenced by the cheaters’ ability distribution or the level of correlation between ability and speed of test-takers. Finally, the method has demonstrated flexibility for the choice of significance level and the transition from fixed-length tests to variable-length ones. The thesis discusses potential applications, including the suitability of the method for multiple-choice tests, assumptions about RT distribution and level of item pre-knowledge. Also limitations are discussed to explore future developments such as different RT distributions, unusual honest respondent behaviors, and field testing in real-world scenarios. In summary, CHIPS and M-CHIPS offer real-time cheating detection in CAT, enhancing test security and ability estimation while not penalizing test respondents.

Development of textile wearable chemical sensors

In this elaborate, a textile-based Organic Electrochemical Transistor (OECT) was first developed for the determination of uric acid in wound exudate based on the conductive polymer poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene):polystyrene sulfonate (PEDOT:PSS), which was then coupled to an electrochemically gated textile transistor consisting of a composite of iridium oxide particles and PEDOT:PSS for pH monitoring in wound exudate. In that way a sensor for multiparameter monitoring of wound health status was assembled, including the ability to differentiate between a wet-dry status of the smart bandage by implementing impedance measurements exploiting the OECT architecture. Afterwards, for both wound management as well as generic health status tracking applications, a glass-based calcium sensor was developed employing polymeric ion-selective membranes on a novel architecture inspired by the Wrighton OECT configuration, which was later converted to a Proof-of-Concept textile prototype for wearable applications. Lastly, in collaboration with the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia) under the supervision of Prof. Sahika Inal, different types of ion-selective thiophene-based monomers were used to develop ion-selective conductive polymers to detect sodium ion by different methods, involving standard potentiometry and OECT-based approaches. The textile OECTs for uric acid detection performances were optimized by investigating the geometry effect on the instrumental response and the properties of the different textile materials involved in their production, with a special focus on the final application that implies the operativity in flow conditions to simulate the wound environment. The same testing route was followed for the multiparameter sensor and the calcium sensor prototype, with a particular care towards the ion-selective membrane composition and electrode conditioning protocol optimization. The sodium-selective polymer electrosynthesis was optimized in non-aqueous environments and was characterized by means of potentiostatic and potentiodynamic techniques coupled with Quartz Crystal Microbalance and spectrophotometric measurements.